MMA Plays

[terpkeg]

Sokoudjou over Minowa -325 Bookmaker 1.5u/.4u
Soko is a blackbelt in Judo with good throws and power in his hands. He is notorious for his poor cardio and inability to fight off of his back. Fourtunately for him, Minowa should not be able to take him deep in to this fight or put him on his back. Minowa is a decent grappler with dangerous leg locks, but Sokoudjou should come out very strong and I expect a gnp beating to end this fight in the first. If Machida, Babalu or Mousasi could not finish Soko when he was fresh, I don't see how Minowa does. I give him less than 20% chance of surviving long enough to lock up a leg.

[terpkeg]

adding
Izumi over Shibata at +128 1u total 3u/3.9u
and...
Tokoro over Kim -165 Bookmaker .8u/.5u - I see a little value here as Kim does not have stoppage power and since he has moved off of the low-mid teir korean circuit he has posted a 1-7-3 record in his last 11 fights, albeit against decent to strong comp. Last time I saw him against Kanehara, Kim did little to stop leg kicks and was convincingly outgrappled. I see know difference here as Tokoro has fought a who's who at lw and fw over the years and is a crowd favorite. This year I feel like I have not received one favorable judges decision in Japan, but I dont think that will be an issue here as Tokoro should get the UD nod if he cannot finish fight.

Ishii is getting steamed up right now after opening just outside my play range at -165. I remember reading an article where Randy Couture was saying he was impressed with his work ethic, but he had a long way to go. Although this is a classic pass the torch fight, I think he is getting a little too much love. Not a good enough number to play Yoshida yet.

RTD 15-4 +14.9u

Pending.....
Dynamite NYE
Izumi over Shibata 3u/3.9u
Sokoudjou over Minowa 1.5u/.4u
Tokoro over Kim .8u/.5u

UFC 109
Marquardt over Sonnen 3u/1.1u
Coleman over Couture 1u/3.1u

[illmatick]

looks good terp, probably going to tail you on Tokoro

I have no idea how to handicap these asian fighters, Kazunori Yokota at +275 might be a play for me though

any opinions on the Melvin Manhoef fight? I don't know a thing about the guy he is fighting

[terpkeg]

Thinking about taking Misaki, he is much more well rounded and he is hard to finish with strikes, but from what I have seen he tends to get hit a lot when he stands and bangs, which he seems willing to do. If he survives early push from Manhoef, just so many more ways for him to win this fight. Plus I read that Manhoef was sick. But, cant pull the trigger.

[bballs84]

what about a overreem yamamoto parlay?? Any chance any of those two lose???

[terpkeg]

K1 Dynamite 2-1 +2.8u
I have never been one for conspiracy theories. But, does anyone else think the Sokoudjou - Minowa fight was fixed? That was ridicolous. At first I thought Soko was just very conservative because he was 1) afraid of leglock and/or 2) trying to conserve energy b/c of his cardio issues. But, Minowa looked pretty gassed throughout second round and I see no reason why Soko could not pound him out. Then, the third, I dont even know where to begin with that. No agression, not one punch for 3 minutes, he was dropped by a right to his check bone, the stoppage?
Anyway, moving on....

RTD 17-5 +17.8u

Got late jump on UFC 108 as December was very busy month for me. I had COndit for 2 units over Daley and I like Hazelett almost as much. He obviously has better submissions, a suseptibitly of Daley's. However, there are two questions I have. Is Hazelett's chin as good as Condit's (because he may need it), how about the ACL, 100%? Ringrust? Nonetheless, Hazelett is significantly undervalued IMO.

Hazelett over Daley -115 Bodog 1.5u/1.3u
Even with the question marks, I see value here. Daley's very suseptible to submissions. Throughout his career he has been borderline helpless from his back. In his fights with Alessio, Thompson and Shields, he has showed improved takedown defense with a good sprawl. But, he still finds himself on his back too often. Hazelett has enough striking to keep Daley off balance with his reach both jab and leg kicks. Similiar to the Thompson fight, this will cause Daley trouble closing the distance. When he comes in off balance Hazelett should find ways to get this fight to mat. Hazelett has seemless transitions and should be able to keep Daley in precarious positions before ending up with Sub of the Night before the end of the first. Would be a larger play, but Hazelett is coming off long lay off and Daley has the kind of KO power to add extra variance to any fight, let alone one where the opponent may have some ring rust.

[terpkeg]

Volkmann over Kampmann 1u/2.4u +240 Bodog -
Volmann is an all american D! wreslter with solid no-gi grappling credentials training in Minnesota with Brock Larson, Sherk, Lesnar. He suffered defeat for the first time recently against Paulo Thiago, who dropped him several times in route to a UD. Kampmann has been training at Ex Couture for several years. He comes from a kick boxing backround, but has locked up several subs in the UFC.
What the KO loss to Paul Daley proves is either that Kampmann has no faith in his wrestling or just reverts to his routes on instinct. Throughout all of his fights in the UFC, Kampmann has yet to fight an accomplished wreslter of any sorts. And, to my knowledge, I don't know if he has fought one his entire career. While Volmann did get dropped by Thiago several times, Thiago has shown suprisingly powerful stand-up (see Koscheck).
Volmann managed to last three rounds and take a UD against Bobby Voelker, who is a very dangerous striker. This leads me to beleive that he can survive in this fight the majority of the time. The question is, how many times can he take 2 of 3 rounds with his wrestling. I think considerably more than the 29% afforded by +240.

[terpkeg]

Joe Lauzon over Sam Stout -270 5dimes 2u/.7u
Lauzon is an excellent grappler with decent stand up having a long reach with form and head movement. Sam Stout is a kick boxer who still has not developed into a well rounded fighter imo. If Matt Wiman can take you down with shots and trip takedowns, I think Stout is going to have a serious problem keeping this fight in his comfort zone. I believed Wiman won that fight which would have been Stouts third straight loss. He has yet to finish anyone in the UFC despite having nice hands, I dont think he has the power to flash KO Lauzon often enough to warrant the line. Should be closer to -400 imo.

Adding .5 on Hazelett at -115 for 2u/1.7u

[Jayvee]

I agree with your UFC 108 picks. I was pleasantly surprised to see the -270 line for the J-lau fight, I thought it would at least be
-330. This is my strongest pick of the night. Like you I would have put more for Mclovin but that year long layoff scares me. However I think he's going to do to Paul Daley what Jake Shields, a stronger grappler with worse striking, did to him.

Keep up the good work!

[terpkeg]

I agree with your UFC 108 picks. I was pleasantly surprised to see the -270 line for the J-lau fight, I thought it would at least be
-330. This is my strongest pick of the night. Like you I would have put more for Mclovin but that year long layoff scares me. However I think he's going to do to Paul Daley what Jake Shields, a stronger grappler with worse striking, did to him.

Keep up the good work!

BOL to you

I picture this fight more like the Nick Thompson fight as I do not think Hazlett has the wrestling as Shields does. Shields was able to double and single leg Daley. Thompson was able to control the distance with his reach and take Daley down from inside after Daley managed to close distance. I see Haz finding ways to get fight down, whether it be inside leg trip from clinch or a variation of a guard pull, maybe flying triangleor something.

Adding....
Pyle over Ellenberger +150 Bookmaker .5/.8
At +150, this is in my playrange. Pyle is a vet, he is great on the ground, adequate on the feet and suseptible to the takedown. Ellenberger does not have a wrestling backround, but has adequate wrestling. His major weopon of late has been his powerful overhand right. I think Pyle is a crafty enough veteran to avoid getting bombed on the feet. Ellenberger leaves himself open after over commiting. I think Pyle will get the better of enough scrambles to win the fight by sub or decision close to 50% of the time, so I will take the +150.

[terpkeg]

UFC 108 0-4 -5.5u

RTD 17-9 +12.3u

I knew I couldnt keep up the clip I was on, but 0-4 hurts. Just have to analyze my mistakes and move on. Sorry if anyone tailed.

[terpkeg]

UFN 20
Sadollah over Blackburn -150 Bodog 1.5u/1u
I think the 60% at -150 is selling Sadollah short. Blackburn has nice hands, but I do not think he will finish Sadollah with strikes. Looking at his 5 TUF fights, and his fights against Hendricks and Baroni, Sadollah has proven to have a A+ jaw. He was rocked bad by Hendricks, but even there, he was not out, and actually standing back up when fight was stopped. While Blackburn is hard to stop, there are more ways for Sadollah to win this fight. IMO, Blackburn was outstruck in the Garcia fight and faded in the third. Unless Blackburn can take the first two rounds on points, I see Sadolllah winning this fight. Blackburn also coming off of shoulder surgery and lay off.

[terpkeg]

WEC 46
Kamal Shalorus over Dave Jensen +250 Bodog 2u/5u
I handicapped this fight closer to a pick. Would be tempted to go even larger here as I think the line is significantly off, but I have only seen Shalorus last fight and it lasted less than a minute, so I think I may be missing something. Jensen has good Greco Roman wrestling and a powerful overhand right. Last time out, he decisioned Rich Crunkleton 30-27, 29-28, 29-28. He gassed late in the fight and did not want to stand with Crunk. He took the fight with repeated takedowns in the third. From what I have seen, he will not be able to take Shalorus down. Shalarus has 15+ years of wrestling experience. In 2005, he even defeated Joachim Hansen in an ADCC qualifier. He was able to shoot on Hansen, take him down several times and basically power out of any submissions. If this turns into a sgtand up fight, Shalorus looked very dangerous on feet last time out and all but one of his wins are by ko/tko. If line moves dramaticallhy, may scalp back some.

[terpkeg]

Hendersen over Varner Even Bodog 1.5u/1.5u
This is a matchup of similiar styles imo. Both strong freestyle wrestlers who have developed into more than adequate strikers. Varner obviously respects Hendersens wrestling as he brought him into his camp to prepare for Marcus Hicks. At first glance, this is a coin flip. However, I give the intangibles to Hendersen. First, he looked unsubmitable against Donald Cerrone who had him in some very deep chokes and nasty joint holds. Hendersen has the heart of a lion and obviously keeps his composure. On the other hand, I have my doubts about Varner. He quit in the Cerrone fight from an illegal knee which did not seem to do that much damage. However, he did have an injured eye, and a broken foot and broken hand, so can you blame him? Then, in the McColough fight, I think it was the only time I saw someone call time out to get their mouth piece. Now, these instances could just prove that Varner is a smart fighter, or they could prove that Varner may wilt under pressure. Anyway, Varner is coming off a year layoff, and you must consider this. I think chances are Hendersen takes it to him and wears him out late.

[terpkeg]

Roop over WIneland +230 Bodog .5u/1.1u -
I think this is a high variance fight due to the unknown of Roop at 135 and told myself I needed mid +200 to take either side. Suprisingly, that is what we have here. Roop has fought most recently at 145, and previosly in the UFC at 155. He is 6'1 with a 74' reach. Wineland looked great last time out, but Manny Tapia has not looked good since him fight with Miguel Torres (think he had knee surgery as well). Wineland is a good striker and Roop has looked less than adequate in his feet in the UFC imo, but he plans to be 160 on fight night and has been training with Shawn Tompkins. I think he is undervalued and will take a .5u stab.

[terpkeg]

UFC 110
Jardine over Bader +150 Sportbet 1.5u/2.3u -
Jardine has lost 4 of 6, but he is a vet with wins over Liddell, Griffin and Vera. He tends to get lazy, leave his hands low and get overwhelmed, but I expect him to be fully focused here. Suprisingly, throughout his career in the UFC, Jardine has not faced many wrestlers. I assume Bader is a favorite because of his takedowns and powerful right. The best idea I can get of how Jardine will handle a wrestler is the Rampage fight. Jardine held his own in the clinch, and when he was taken down, got back to his feet without taking too much damage. Bader did not impress me against Schaffer, who is a poor striker. He did land poweful shots, but he also got hit often and seemed to fade as the fight went on. I think Jardine can avoid taking damage on the ground and outstrike Bader for a convincing UD. Jardine could get caught with a big right, but I dont think that will hapen often enough to effect the value at +150.

[terpkeg]

WEC 46
Kamal Shalorus over Dave Jensen +250 Bodog 2u/5u
I handicapped this fight closer to a pick. Would be tempted to go even larger here as I think the line is significantly off, but I have only seen Shalorus last fight and it lasted less than a minute, so I think I may be missing something. Jensen has good Greco Roman wrestling and a powerful overhand right. Last time out, he decisioned Rich Crunkleton 30-27, 29-28, 29-28. He gassed late in the fight and did not want to stand with Crunk. He took the fight with repeated takedowns in the third. From what I have seen, he will not be able to take Shalorus down. Shalarus has 15+ years of wrestling experience. In 2005, he even defeated Joachim Hansen in an ADCC qualifier. He was able to shoot on Hansen, take him down several times and basically power out of any submissions. If this turns into a sgtand up fight, Shalorus looked very dangerous on feet last time out and all but one of his wins are by ko/tko. If line moves dramaticallhy, may scalp back some.

Not sure if this is the samrtest long term move, but I'm taking Jansen at -150 3u/2u. Leaving me with a free play on the Prince.
Risking 0 for 2u. Something to think about if you got the opener at +250.

Also adding UFN 20
MacDonald over Guymon -200 Bodog 2u/1u
I usually do not do this, but I am basically making this play on based soley on one fighter. I have been reading about MacDonald for close to two years. He is a Canada's number one fighting prosepece. Been pro since age of 16, I believe he is only 2o right now. He has finished all 9 of his fights. His best win was probably over Clay French. He is waling around at close to 195, so he will be a large WW. he appears to be very well rounded and can finish fight anywhere. Whereas, Guymon comes from a stand up backgournd. I would be most concerned about putting the prospect up against a big wrestler, but not case here.

WEC
Shalarus over Jensen 0u/2u (after buyback)
Hendersen over Varner 1.5u/1.5u
Roop over Winland .5u/1.1u

UFN
Sadollah over Blackburn 1,5u/1u
MacDonald over Guymon 2u/1u

RTD 17-9 +12.3u

[terpkeg]

WEC 46 2-1 +3u
RTD 19-10 +15.3u

UFN 20 adding.....
Leben over Silva -147 Bookmaker 1u/.7u
This one has come into a play range dispite Leben's unimpressive performances of late and a eeming lack of a game plan ever. Silva's wrestling looked non-existent against Dollaway. Silva used to train at my gym in Newark, NJ, but left about a month or two before I got there in early 08'. My understanding was that he was a very athletic blue belt, but used more power, then skill and his bjj was not that great. Havnt seen anything from him that would led me to believe elsewise. He seems to want to stand and bang. And while he brought some intense moments to the Dollaway fight, he appeared to be over agressive and lack disipline. This is the exact kind of opponent Leben has made a career out of. Leben's back is against the wall here, and I would expect him to come out focused. Only one unit though, as I have not read much on Leben's preperation and his last two performnces were uninspiring.

Pending UFN 20
Leben over Silva 1u/.7u
Sadollah over Blackburn 1,5u/1u
MacDonald over Guymon 2u/1u

[terpkeg]

UFN 20 3-0 +2.7u
RTD 22-10 +18u

UFN 21
Gonzaga over Dos Santos Bookmaker +215 3u/6.5u
Really just think that Dos Santos has too many unknowns to be a big favorite over a vet like Gonzaga. Last i saw, he was only a purple belt in bjj under Nog. Obviously I am not bashing the dedication it takes to get your purple, but Gonzaga is a high level bjj black belt. Gonzaga but Carwin on his back early in their fight and while Carwin was able to get back to his feet, Dos Santos does not have the size and strength of Carwin. If Dos Santos winds up on his back, he could have problems. And while Dos Santos looked very impressive against Cro Cop, Werdum, Struve, and Yvel, the Struve and Werdum fights ended quickly and Cro Cop and Yvel are way passed their prime and I would give Gonzaga a large stand up advantage over Werdum and Struve. Further, it seems that Dos Santos has a tendency to drop his hands. Gonzaga has very explosive kicks and has the ability to end fights. The thing I am having trouble with is the fact that Gonzaga seems to melt when pushed into deep water, see Couture and Werdum (the 2nd Werdum fight really confuses me). Nonetheless, i think this is a high variance fight that should be closer to a pick.

Johnson over Howard -280 Bookmaker 1.5u/.6u -
Missed the opener here but i think should be closer to -400 giving Johnson about 80%. Only question imo is the gass tank. Howard is a well rounded fighter, but does not exscel in any one area imo. He has a boxing background, but I dont see him getting the better of Johnson on the feet, Johnson just too long and strong. Also, Johnson has much better wrestling. I thought McCrory gave the fight away against Howard giving up positition going for flying triangles and such, and Howard snatched Victory from the brink of defeat with his late KO of Hallman after being grinded on for 3 rounds. The Wilson fight also very close. While you have to give Howard props for winning fights, he easily could be 0-3 in the cage and have his pink slip. Johnson on another level imo and would be a larger play if I could trust his gas tank in the least.

[illmatick]

gonzaga line does look a bit soft, I'm done betting against dos santos though, lol

[ecpenguin]

UFN 20 3-0 +2.7u
UFN 21
Gonzaga over Dos Santos Bookmaker +215 3u/6.5u
Really just think that Dos Santos has too many unknowns to be a big favorite over a vet like Gonzaga. Last i saw, he was only a purple belt in bjj under Nog. Obviously I am not bashing the dedication it takes to get your purple, but Gonzaga is a high level bjj black belt. Gonzaga but Carwin on his back early in their fight and while Carwin was able to get back to his feet, Dos Santos does not have the size and strength of Carwin. If Dos Santos winds up on his back, he could have problems. And while Dos Santos looked very impressive against Cro Cop, Werdum, Struve, and Yvel, the Struve and Werdum fights ended quickly and Cro Cop and Yvel are way passed their prime and I would give Gonzaga a large stand up advantage over Werdum and Struve. Further, it seems that Dos Santos has a tendency to drop his hands. Gonzaga has very explosive kicks and has the ability to end fights. The thing I am having trouble with is the fact that Gonzaga seems to melt when pushed into deep water, see Couture and Werdum (the 2nd Werdum fight really confuses me). Nonetheless, i think this is a high variance fight that should be closer to a pick.

I like your play on Gabe. I belong to another betting forum where they are all on JDS big. I think Gabe's line will get even better.

[illmatick]

what forum is that?

[ecpenguin]

what forum is that?

It's specific to MMA.

http://forums.mmajunkie.com/viewforum.php?f=4

[terpkeg]

I like your play on Gabe. I belong to another betting forum where they are all on JDS big. I think Gabe's line will get even better.

I really thought line would go the other way fast. Guess I was mistaken, 5dimes has +225 now.

[terpkeg]

RTD 22-10 +18u

Lawler over Manhoef +180 5dimes 1u/1.8u -
This has gotten high enought o warrant a play on Lawler imo. Both guys prefer to stand up, are suseptible to submissions and have good chins. There are some variables that favor Lawler here. 1) Manhoef fighting in America (this is somewhat lessoned by the fact that he has been training at ATT, but with his gym burning down, and not being home for over a month, he may be out of his confort zone and his mental preperation may be affected; 2) He is fighting in a cage. It has been some time since he has fought in a cage, and I dont think this can be ignored. Manhoef will have to work different angels, wont be able to trap Lawler in the corner has he would in a ring. Since Lawler has shown no propensity to vary his game plans in the past, Manhoef should be favored. However, I believe he is more well rounded and if he can survive intial onslaught, I think Manhoef will fade. Maybe Lawler can mix in some takedowns as Manhoef tires and finish him with strikes on the mat.


As for Diaz-Zaromskis, I was hoping to get Diaz under -200, which was available, but I missed, so I am holding off. Diaz does not have good wrestling, and has no problem dropping to his back when he gets caught despite the fact that he is not hurt bad. He is too comfortable fighting from his back and has always thought of it as an offensive position. Well judges dont. We havnt seen this since KJ Noons or MIke Aina fights, but if he gets tagged., wouldnt suprise me. I think Diaz closes distance, outboxes Zaromskis in close and wins fight, but you also have to take cuts into consideration and I think line is close to accurate now.

[terpkeg]

Davis over Stann -115 Bookmaker 2u/1.7u
Short on time but Stann has shown no takedown defense. Better defensive bjj and ability to stand up last time out, but still dumped often. Stand up too robotic. Davis should dump him on back early and often and pound him. Would play up to -200 only because of Davis inexperience.

[terpkeg]

Adding UFC 109
Marquardt over Sonnen -280 Available everywhere 3u/1.1u
Im not sold on Sonnen despite his domination of Okami. He has always been suseptible to submissions. He is not too far removed from giving Filho a gimme armbar in a fight he was dominating. Maia had not problem putting him away early and Dan Miller almost choked him out early. Don't see how Sonnen wins this fight. Marquardt has been dropped in his UFC career, Silva and Leites come tommind, but I dont think Sonnen packs the power to KO him. I think Marquardt is the 2nd best MW in the UFC right now and think this line should be north of
-450. Marquardt can out grapple Sonnen and win by sub, or overwhelm on feet.

Also pending
Coleman over Couture 1u/3.1u

These were previously posted making my pending UFC 109 Plays
Marquardt over Sonnen 3u/1.1u
Coleman over Couture 1u/3.1u
Davis over Stann 2u/1.7u

Will likely add another play or two, just waiting on line movement.

Unfortunately the Davis and Marquardt lines ar eling gone, so is you are seeing this for first time it probably will not be much help. If you were aware enough to take Davis at the opener, then you may want to bet back. I added i good chunk to him at -118 and bet it back now at +215. If you missed the opener I think it may be wised to stay away here. Stann did good job getting back to his feet last time out and Davis looked to have limited submission offense from the fights I watched, passing up arm bar and arm triangle opputunities. If Stann keeps fight up or gets back to feet often, too many unknowns for me. First fight in UFC could being adreniline dump and I am not sold on Davis stand up. Stann, while pretty stiff and slow, does pack big power.

I still like Marquardt at -375 for reasons stated above, but only for 1u.

Still think Coleman is live and better number available at +345.


RTD 23-10 +19.8u

[terpkeg]

adding....

Guillard over Torres +105 Bodog 1u/1u

This will be the best wrestler that Torres has faced, i believe. Guillard has always been suseptible to submission and Torres is a good black belt. But, last 2-3 fights, Guillard takedown and submission defense has been much improved. He now trains with Greg Jackson, so i think he will come in with good gameplan. Torres looks pretty lost on feet. He puts head down often and tries to close distance fast to secure takedown. I think Guillard is going to rock him. He does have a very good guard pass and nasty kimura, which he transitions into an arm bar very effectively, so he could score the sub. But, I like Guillard recent improvements in sub defense and new camp. He has most power of anyone at 155. This will be the biggest test of Torres career, while Guillard has been on the big stage for some time. Hopefully Guillard keeps his head in this fight as he cost himself the Diaz fight by going for an unnessasary takedown and getting caught.

[terpkeg]

I am coming back over my Davis bet completely with Stann at +235 on Bodog.

I am coming out with no risk profit. For the sake of keeping an accurate record here i will not count this play as a win as most, if not all, followers of this thread (if there are any, haha) probably missed the opener.
Davis is just to green for me to pass up no risk money.

I also like Marquardt and Maia parlay which I believe was one of Iceman's picks, both are sitting under -400 at 5dimes and i think you find value at about -185 for the parlay.

Also slight lean on Marquardt inside distance at -125 (5dimes) but am not playing as I already have 3u straight.
BOL tonight all.

[illmatick]

adding....

Guillard over Torres +105 Bodog 1u/1u

This will be the best wrestler that Torres has faced, i believe. Guillard has always been suseptible to submission and Torres is a good black belt. But, last 2-3 fights, Guillard takedown and submission defense has been much improved. He now trains with Greg Jackson, so i think he will come in with good gameplan. Torres looks pretty lost on feet. He puts head down often and tries to close distance fast to secure takedown. I think Guillard is going to rock him. He does have a very good guard pass and nasty kimura, which he transitions into an arm bar very effectively, so he could score the sub. But, I like Guillard recent improvements in sub defense and new camp. He has most power of anyone at 155. This will be the biggest test of Torres career, while Guillard has been on the big stage for some time. Hopefully Guillard keeps his head in this fight as he cost himself the Diaz fight by going for an unnessasary takedown and getting caught.

have a feeling this may turn out to be the shapest play on the board, Gleison Tibau had all kinds of trouble keeping melvin down, line has swung too far the other way imo

[terpkeg]

RTD 24-12 +16.8u
Not a good card for me.

[terpkeg]

UFN 21
Nelson over Struve -285 5dimes 3u/1.1u
Sucks missing the opener at -180, but think it only goes up from here. Most of Struve's wins come by sub and I cannot imagine him subbing Nelson. He could not finish Buentello when he had his back and he seems to be much more effective from the guard. However, top control is Nelson's strength. On the feet, Struve has good kickboxing for a young mma fighter, but he gets hit way to much. While his chin has proved durable, Nelson packs big power in his right. Stuve's best bet is to keep Nelson off wth jab which I dont think he will be able to do enough to avoid being taken down and pounded on. I think Nelson gets 3rd round tko or wins clear decision.

Also pending (write ups above).....
UFC 110
Jardine over Bader +150 Sportbet 1.5u/2.3u -
Versus 1
Johnson over Howard -280 Bookmaker 1.5u/.6u
Gonzaga over Dos Santos +215 Bookmaker 3u/6.5u

[RobbReport]

over Bader!?

[brooks85]

absolutely

[illmatick]

arozona combat should be a good fade for the next few events