Why not bet Adesanya, Arce, or Jon Jones at similar price points instead?
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I totally understand your logic.....but that's like saying all NFL players give 100% at all times.....when in fact we all know they try harder on a contract year....When Strickland got that KO last UFC card he flat out said he went for it bc he didn't want cut LOL...agree to disagree here I guess hugo
..
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Go inside the lives and training camps of four athletes preparing for UFC 230.
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Rising UFC middleweight star Israel Adesanya is in studio to talk all things UFC 230, his impending battle with Derek Brunson and why he deserves a title shot with a win. “The Last Stylebender” talks about his roots growing up in Nigeria and how he found his way into professional fighting.
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Brunson D. vs. Adesanya I.
"Bad Blood under/itd" rule could be in full effect.
Don't like the line though.Comment -
Wow what's the prop odds for Adesanya by sub?
In the interview he states that it keeps happening in the gym.
He's putting it out there.
We have a trend breaking angle here.Last edited by Thrilla; 11-01-18, 11:56 AM.Comment -
I’m with Paper on this one. I think this is a great matchup for Vannata even though he screwed me bad in his last fight. Steam rolla is fun but I think he gets hit A LOT in this fight. His hands are wide, loopy, and not particularly fast. He’s just asking for someone to pepper him straight down the pipe. I think we see a lot of Steam Rolla chucking big bombs while Vannata lands first and gets out. Steam Rolla will have to look to grapple and will prob run into more strikes. Way too hittable and sloppy.
FWIW Vannata left Jackson’s for this camp. Has been training at Cerrone’s and at an off shoot of Jackson’s that opened up in New Mexico.Comment -
^ that said, Adesanya is -283 on my book and Vannata is -275 and I chose Adesanya for a parlay with Jackson over Vannata. I think he’s more trust worthy. Not playing either guy straight.Comment -
I seem to remember wrestling exchanges between Yoel Romero and Derek Brunson being equal. Brunson is one of the best wrestlers in the division. In UFC 230 embeddeds, Brunson said he KO'ed some of the best strikers @ 185 (Lyoto) & plans to play to his strengths against Israel Adesanya, which could mean he's going for the takedown / clinch fighting.
Anyone who thinks Israel Adesanya vs Derek Brunson will be a 15 minute kickboxing war where Adesanya emerges victorious might want to think 2x.
That said Adesanya is so talented. Love watching that guy fight.Comment -
if Adesanya and Brunson stay standing for 15 minutes i would bet anything you wanted Adesayna would win that on points 10/10 times lol, hes a 10x better striker then Brunson will ever be... Brunson has the power and wrestling thats it
and tbh before Romero didnt care when people took him down because he just stood right back up, so i wouldnt take that really into account.. i think Bruson is solid but hes a gatekeeper and Adesanya has a chance to be special if he can keep his TDD up to par. Really think hes the guy to beat Whittaker if he gets the chance , his striking is levels above anybody at 185Comment -
Derrick Lewis is dead meat going into this fight.. Odds should be higher then what they are.. Derrick Lewis is not better then DC standing or on the ground.. Either way he's gonna get smoked...Comment -
MMA mania write ups prelims -
155 lbs.: Matt Frevola vs. Lando Vannata
Matt Frevola (6-1) made the most of his headlining spot on the Contender Series by submitting Luke Flores to secure a contract. His customary brawling ways didn’t serve him well in his debut, however, as Polo Reyes demolished him with punches in just 60 seconds.
“The Steamrolla” went undefeated (8-0) as an amateur before making his professional mixed martial arts (MMA) debut in 2014.
The terrific Octagon debut of Lando Vannata (9-3-1) against Tony Ferguson and subsequent wheel kick knockout of John Makdessi have not given way to the expected success. “Groovy” is just 0-2-1 in his last three Octagon appearances, most recently losing a one-sided decision to Drakkar Klose in July.
He owns four wins apiece by knockout and submission.
It’s become clear that Vannata isn’t what we though he was, but he’s almost certainly a level or two above Frevola. The latter is a bog-standard brawler with solid wrestling to back it up, which is an archetype Vannata really ought to be able to deal with. As long as he doesn’t horribly mismanage his cardio, Vannata should be able to style on Frevola all night.
It’s hard to have faith in Vannata at this point, but Frevola is a far cry from the likes of David Teymur and Bobby Green. Head movement, strong kicks and good takedown defense carry “Groovy” back into the win column.
Prediction: Vannata via unanimous decision
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145 lbs.: Shane Burgos vs. Kurt Holobaugh
Shane Burgos (10-1)announced his arrival in UFC’s Featherweight division with entertaining victories over Tiago “Trator,” Charles Rosa and Godofredo “Pepey.” He would fall to Calvin Kattar his next time out, but secured “Fight of the Night” for their back-and-forth battle.
His eight stoppage wins are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
Kurt Holobaugh (17-5) battered Matt Bessette on the inaugural “Contender Series” episode, only for the fight to be overturned when it was revealed that he used an IV to rehydrate. Despite this, he made his Octagon a year later with a “Fight of the Night”-winning brawl against Raoni Barcelos, who put away Holobaugh with uppercuts in the third round.
Though their heights are identical, he will give up two inches of reach to “Hurricane” Shane.
Holobaugh showed in his last fight that his pressure-heavy style struggles against strong counter-punchers willing to stand their ground, so in response, UFC booked him against another strong counter-puncher willing to stand his ground. Burgos has virtually all the tools needed to recreate Barcelos’ effort aside from strong offensive wrestling, and what he lacks in slick head movement he makes up for with concussive power.
The “X-Factor” here is whether Burgos, whose hands-low slugging demands extreme confidence, has mentally recovered from the Kattar knockout. He’s young enough to bounce back strong, though, so I say we get about a round and a half of “Fight of the Night” action before Burgos catches him with something gnarly.
Prediction: Burgos via second-round technical knockout
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135 lbs.: Brian Kelleher vs. Montel Jackson
Wrestling, aggression and sheer grit carried Brian Kelleher (19-9) past Damian Stasiak and Renan Barao on his way to contendership. Those weren’t enough against John Lineker, who out-brawled Kelleher before knocking him stiff with a left hook.
“Boom” has five wins by guillotine, including one over fellow undercard fighter Julio Arce.
Montel Jackson (6-1) — whose “Contender Series” victory was marred by a series of fouls — got the UFC call anyway when Benito Lopez pulled out of a fight with Ricky Simon. Though he put forth a strong effort, he couldn’t overcome his foe on short notice and suffered his first career loss by decision.
He steps in for “Contender Series” product Domingo Pilarte on less than one month’s notice.
Jackson is still somewhat green and came up short against Simon, but even on short notice, this is a much more winnable fight for him. He’s four inches taller than Kelleher and will have nearly a foot of reach on him; however, Kelleher gets inside through sheer tenacity, which just isn’t going to work against someone this rangy and hits this hard.
Kelleher’s only real chances of victory lie in Jackson gassing late or going for a takedown and leaving his neck out. Neither seems likely. Jackson plugs him with power shots at range to take a clear decision victory.
Prediction: Jackson via unanimous decision
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265 lbs.: Adam Wieczorek vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Poland’s Adam Wieczorek (10-1), who has not tasted defeat since a loss to Marcin Tybura in his second professional fight, enters the cage undefeated (2-0) in his Octagon career so far. His last victory was one for the history books, as he hit the UFC Heavyweight division’s first omoplata against the heavily favored Arjan Singh Bhullar in Glendale.
He replaces the injured Ruslan Magomedov, who ran into **** issues, on less than two weeks’ notice.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (15-5)opened his UFC career with two knockouts in a combined 2:19, but has alternated losses and victories since. “Pezao” was last seen tapping to an Ovince Saint Preux von Flue choke after missing weight for the second consecutive time, after which he ran afoul of United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA).
The Brazilian has stopped 12 opponents with punches, 10 of them in the first round.
de Lima is an inordinately frustrating fighter to follow. He has truly ridiculous punching power, but his ground game has failed to improve by even the slightest amount since his Octagon debut. “Pezao’s” takedown defense is atrocious and his defensive grappling is downright appalling; indeed, if the fight hits the mat under any circumstances, “Siwy” will tap him in a hurry.
Considering that the Pole will be one of the larger men de Lima has faced, getting the fight there may not be too difficult. The Brazilian isn’t a true heavyweight; he’s a light heavyweight with no discipline. Though the potential for another stunning knockout is there, Wieczorek survives a rough start to ultimately drag his foe to the mat and lock up a submission shortly thereafter.
Prediction: Wieczorek via second-round submission
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145 lbs.: Jason Knight vs. Jordan Rinaldi
Jason Knight (20-5) — the man known either as “The Kid” or “Hick Diaz,” depending on the formality of the situation — took home three post-fight bonuses in four straight wins to establish himself as a contender. He has since lost three straight, succumbing to Ricardo Lamas’ punches before suffering upset decision defeats to Gabriel Benitez and Makwan Amirkhani.
He has submitted 13 professional opponents, 10 by form of choke.
Jordan Rinaldi (13-6), riding a five-fight win streak, debuted on short notice against dangerous brawler Abel Trujillo, losing an entertaining decision. He bounced back with a von Flue finish of Álvaro Herrera, but succumbed to Gregor Gillespie’s ground-and-pound five months later.
This will be his first fight at Featherweight since 2015.
I’m honestly not sure if Knight’s struggles are a product of that beatdown against Lamas or if he’s just been figured out; he’s still got that killer submission game and sneaky punching power, but something’s just been missing. He has to finish Rinaldi if he wants to prove he’s still a force to be reckoned with.
On paper, at least, Knight looks like he has all the cards, boasting superior grappling and a strong body attack to control things on the feet. So long as he fights up to at least a portion of his considerable potential, he drops and taps Rinaldi early.
Prediction: Knight via first-round submission
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125 lbs.: Sijara Eubanks vs. Roxanne Modafferi
Sijara Eubanks (3-2) didn’t let a low seeding on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 26 stop her from marching to the Finale in dominant fashion. Unfortunately, a blown weight cut cost her a shot at the new title, leaving her to debut against Lauren Murphy earlier this year.
“Sarj” stands three inches shorter than Roxanne Modafferi (22-14) at 5’4.”
Modafferi’s experience and strong Invicta FC run earned her the top seed on TUF 26, where she reached the semifinals before falling to Eubanks. She went on to replace Eubanks against Nicco Montano at the Finale, and though she lost that decision, she picked up her first UFC victory by stopping Barb Honchak seven months later.
“The Happy Warrior” has finished five opponents via submission and another four with strikes.
I’m not entirely sure what UFC intended to accomplish with this rematch — there’s nothing to suggest it will go any differently than the last time. Eubanks is larger and stronger than Modafferi on top of having more power in her strikes and a superior Brazilian jiu-jitsu pedigree. Modafferi needs to be able to establish top position and get her passing game going to be effective, neither of which she’ll be able to do here.
There’s always the worry of Eubanks flubbing her weight cut again, but if she enters the cage in anything even remotely close to fighting shape, she should dominate wherever the fight goes. Modafferi’s durability saves her from a finish, but power strikes and prolonged top control earn Eubanks another victory.
Prediction: Eubanks via unanimous decision
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145 lbs.: Julio Arce vs. Sheymon Moraes
Consecutive losses to Brian Kelleher slowed the rise of Julio Arce (15-2), but four more victories earned him a spot on “Tuesday Night Contender Series,” where he dominated Lloyd Irvin product Peter Petties to earn a contract. His Octagon career has seen him dominate Dan Ige and submit Daniel Teymur since the start of the year.
Five of his eight professional stoppage wins have come via form of choke.
Sheymon Moraes (10-2) jumped right into the deep end in UFC, facing top prospect Zabit Magomedsharipov in his promotional debut and tapping to a third-round anaconda choke. He had more success against another quality youngster in Matt Sayles, whom the Brazilian took two rounds from at UFC 227.
He’ll have an inch of height and two inches of reach on Arce.
We have a rather interesting match up here! Moraes figures to be the better striker, as he will be against most anyone at 145 pounds willing to trade with him, but Arce’s grappling game has the potential to throw a wrench in it. This fight will be decided by how well Arce can blend his striking and his takedowns.
Moraes exceeded my expectation against Sayles, which may be the reason my gut is telling me to pick him. I say he banks the first two rounds through precise punching and ultimately walks away with a contentious decision.
Prediction: Moraes via split decision
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170 lbs.: Lyman Good vs. Ben Saunders
Lyman Good (19-4) — Bellator MMA’s first-ever Welterweight champion — started strong in UFC with a knockout of Andrew Craig, only to fail a drug test before a planned fight with Belal Muhammad. He returned after two years away to face Elizeu Zaleski in July 2017, losing a split decision but walking away with “Fight of the Night.”
“Cyborg” will surrender two inches of height and three inches of reach to Ben Saunders (22-10-2).
“Killa B” snapped a two-fight skid in June by crushing Jake Ellenberger with a knee to the body, earning “Performance of the Night” for his efforts. He couldn’t do the same to Sergio Moraes, who demonstrated the difference in jiu-jitsu levels by handing Saunders his first-ever submission defeat.
He steps in for Sultan Aliev on two weeks’ notice.
Though Good doesn’t always make the best of his considerable physical gifts, he’s heavily favored here and for good reason. “Cyborg” has never been stopped, shrugging off blows from heavy hitters like Andrey Koreshkov and Elizeu Zalaeski, and Saunders no longer has the durability to survive 15 minutes against strong punchers. Unless that layoff has seriously hampered Good, even a considerable reach advantage isn’t enough to save Saunders from eating heavier leather than he can take.
Saunders can still score a finish out of nowhere, but the likeliest outcome sees him succumb to Good’s power either late in the first or early in the second.
Prediction: Good via first-round technical knockout
Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2018: 146-70
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Kia kaha Isreal! Hopefully get back to watch this fight, can't take the odds but hope he wins.Comment -
Adesanyawhen focused, is a very precise skilled striker......I expect his best here....Comment -
If Brunson would fight like he did against Lorenz Larkin I'd give him a good chance to win this fight. Unfortunately I think he's going to stand and bang with Adesanya and likely get KTFOd.
I think there will be a time to fade Adesanya, but this probably isn't the spot to do it.Comment -
#1) UFC Fighting
Selection : L. Vannata 11/3/2018 7:00PM - (PST) Money Line -270 for Game
#2) UFC Fighting
Selection : S. Burgos 11/3/2018 7:00PM - (PST) Money Line -345 for Game
Risking : 100.00 To Win : 76.75 USD
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pumped for this card-the above parlay SEEMS too easy
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pretty good card, looking forward to tomorrow night
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eubanks is such a joke... 3-2 crying no title shot then misses weight
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we all know she will beat Roxy since shes literally already done it
IF she somehow gets mic time and calls out Rogan wow that would be the funniest thing ever, i dont think Rogan would be able to talk shit while working but i would like to see what happens with that....
Womens MMA is kind of a joke at the moment tbh... its basically like LHW the top 3 are super talented and elite while the rest of the division is trash and would get starched by anybody in the top 2-3Comment -
Sijara Eubanks chats with Ariel Helwani ahead of her bout vs. Roxanne Modafferi on the UFC 230 undercard, and being pulled from the main event at Madison Square Garden, when she was supposed to fight Valentina Shevchenko for the UFC women’s flyweight title. Eubanks tells Helwani that she “screamed” at UFC president Dana White for the second time when that fight was changed. She told White that they are missing out on a “Rocky” moment and that she still aims to challenge for the title.
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Cormier/Lewis o1.5 rounds?Comment -
Tough call could go either way. I think it's gonna be a fight like Rumble Johnson, first sniff of trouble standing DC will dump Black beast on his back.. Start pounding on him and finish him.. Black beast will gas quickly also.. It may or may not last a round and half..
If I had to pick I'd say it goes U1.5... DC finishes by pound out..
UFC 230 - Heavyweight 5 rounds - Madison Square Garden - New York, New York - PPV Sat 11/3 1001 Derrick Lewis +470 o1½ +130 11:59PM 1002 Daniel Cormier -640 u1½ -150 Comment -
Really looking forward to tomorrow. While this card is sorta underwhelming for a MSG card, should still be some fun fights and I see good value in a few different spots. Let's get to it.
2018 UFC SBR YTD: +1.91 units
Lewis vs. Cormier
Fight starts Round 3 (+235) 0.5 u
Weidman vs. Jacare
Jacare (+150) 3 u
Jacare ITD (+251) 1 u
Jacare Round 1 (+475) 0.5 u
Roberson vs. Marshman
Roberson Round 1 (+195) 0.5 u
Arce vs. Moraes
Arce KO/TKO (+845) 0.25 u
Vannatta vs. Frevola
Frevola (+220) 1.5 u
Hedge: Vannatta Round 1 (+225) 1 u
Kelleher vs. Jackson
Kelleher (+125) 1 u
Kelleher ITD (+425) 0.5 u
Wieczorek vs. de Lima
Wieczorek KO/TKO (+900) 0.25 u
Best of luck to everyone. I think Knight, Arce, and Burgos minus the points are parlayable. I would be a tad cautious with Adesanya; if that fight does hit the mat, Brunson has a pretty huge advantage. I still think the Stylebender gets it done, but like some of the other -250 to -300 guys more.Comment -
They should cut her ugly ass. She is now twitter fighting with everyone including Ben Askren.
Sijara SarJ Eubanks @SarJnCharge
Here go @Benaskren sweating me again... my man you keep my name in your mouth, bruh focus on YOU. Geesh you troll hard. Atleast I can give @jessicaevileye a solid ass whooping, you’ll just wrestle me to deathComment
