UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till (September 08, 2018)

[Sanity Check]

Miller was actually diagnosed with Lyme Disease between UFC 196 and UFC 200. After the diagnosis, he went on a Three Fight Win Streak (Gomi, Lauzon, Alves) before his current Four Fight Losing Streak (Poirier, Pettis, Trinaldo, Hooker).

https://mmajunkie.com/2016/07/before-lyme-disease-diagnosis-jim-miller-was-ready-to-hang-up-his-gloves-at-ufc-200

I think Miller's poor run of form has more to do with very tough opposition than the Lyme Disease itself.

If I remember right, Jim Miller had lyme disease 1-2+ fights before he was officially diagnosed with it. Miller looked sharp in some of his fights, the one with Dustin Poirier comes to mind. That could be proof that lyme disease isn't having that much effect. Its tough to say, looking @ symptoms for lyme disease they look terrible.

[Demonata]

I thought i was crazy. I think insanity check is dexter.

[Shagdogy]

So about the fights actually happening this weekend...

Pudilova vs. Aldana: To boil this one down as simply as possible, Aldana is very hittable, and Pudilova has a nice crisp 1-2 with better hand speed than Aldana possesses. That said, Aldana looks like she will have a significant advantage in size and physicality, and I think her off-angle punches (OH right and hook/uppercut) pack more of a punch than any of Pudilova's.

Both girls have been to 3 straight decisions since entering the UFC. Seems likely to be another decision. Anyone feel like that have a solid read on a side in this fight? Forced to pick, right now I think I'm leaning Pudilova on volume and hand speed if the fight goes to decision, but it's super close where Aldana could land the more significant strikes. What you all think?

[Sanity Check]

I thought i was crazy. I think insanity check is dexter.

I don't know about that.

Let's just say, out of everyone on the internet someone could choose to argue with.

People shouldn't argue with me, unless they want to hear something resembling the truth from someone who actually takes the time to research and learn about these types of things.

So about the fights actually happening this weekend...

Pudilova vs. Aldana: To boil this one down as simply as possible, Aldana is very hittable, and Pudilova has a nice crisp 1-2 with better hand speed than Aldana possesses. That said, Aldana looks like she will have a significant advantage in size and physicality, and I think her off-angle punches (OH right and hook/uppercut) pack more of a punch than any of Pudilova's.

Both girls have been to 3 straight decisions since entering the UFC. Seems likely to be another decision. Anyone feel like that have a solid read on a side in this fight? Forced to pick, right now I think I'm leaning Pudilova on volume and hand speed if the fight goes to decision, but it's super close where Aldana could land the more significant strikes. What you all think?

IMO Aldana fought the better, more technical and athletic strikers in Leslie Smith and Katlyn Chookagian. If the wrestling and grappling cancel out, have to think Aldana takes it.

Planning to re-watch their fights during the week to get a better perspective.

[firekillex]

you definitely cannot beat a delusional person in an argument because regardless what you say they always think theyve "won"


anyways lets talk about MMA its just getting weird now

[turbozed]

So about the fights actually happening this weekend...

Pudilova vs. Aldana: To boil this one down as simply as possible, Aldana is very hittable, and Pudilova has a nice crisp 1-2 with better hand speed than Aldana possesses. That said, Aldana looks like she will have a significant advantage in size and physicality, and I think her off-angle punches (OH right and hook/uppercut) pack more of a punch than any of Pudilova's.

Both girls have been to 3 straight decisions since entering the UFC. Seems likely to be another decision. Anyone feel like that have a solid read on a side in this fight? Forced to pick, right now I think I'm leaning Pudilova on volume and hand speed if the fight goes to decision, but it's super close where Aldana could land the more significant strikes. What you all think?

Power and physicality should be a big advantage for Aldana. Pudilova's hand speed didn't discourage Kim from boxing her up. Kim clearly won rounds 1 and 2 and Pudilova was on the stool telling her corner that she couldn't do anything about Kim's counters before Pudilova decided to wall and stall in Round 3. The key thing there was that Kim just decided to keep moving forward and wasn't scared at all of Pudilova's soft punches.

Aldana is very hittable but the only punch that poses any threat from Pudilova is a wound up overhand right. Pudilova's jab does nothing. Pudilova is extremley hittable too though. Lansberg landed on her, and she is terrible striker. Kim of course landed on Pudilova but Kim didn't have much power to put a stamp on her superior striking (conversely, it was Kim's hair that accentuated Pudilova's weak punches). Even Sarah Moras landed more punches on Pudilova than she had landed in all her past 3 UFC fights combined.

I see both of them landing on each other but Aldana walking through most of Pudilovas punches and Pudilova giving ground to Aldana's advancing. In the clinch, I see Aldana muscling Pudilova around. The combined optics makes it more likely the judges score an otherwise close fight Aldana's way. Also, Pudilva slows down a bit in the 3rd round. I liked Aldana decision +155 and Aldana as a slight underdog.

[Thrilla]

Jarred Brooks late replacement for Ryan Benoit vs. Roberto Sanchez at UFC 228

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[Thrilla]

[PaperTrail07]

Jarred Brooks late replacement for Ryan Benoit vs. Roberto Sanchez at UFC 228

<!-- Begin BestFightOdds code -->
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[Shagdogy]

Power and physicality should be a big advantage for Aldana. Pudilova's hand speed didn't discourage Kim from boxing her up. Kim clearly won rounds 1 and 2 and Pudilova was on the stool telling her corner that she couldn't do anything about Kim's counters before Pudilova decided to wall and stall in Round 3. The key thing there was that Kim just decided to keep moving forward and wasn't scared at all of Pudilova's soft punches.

Aldana is very hittable but the only punch that poses any threat from Pudilova is a wound up overhand right. Pudilova's jab does nothing. Pudilova is extremley hittable too though. Lansberg landed on her, and she is terrible striker. Kim of course landed on Pudilova but Kim didn't have much power to put a stamp on her superior striking (conversely, it was Kim's hair that accentuated Pudilova's weak punches). Even Sarah Moras landed more punches on Pudilova than she had landed in all her past 3 UFC fights combined.

I see both of them landing on each other but Aldana walking through most of Pudilovas punches and Pudilova giving ground to Aldana's advancing. In the clinch, I see Aldana muscling Pudilova around. The combined optics makes it more likely the judges score an otherwise close fight Aldana's way. Also, Pudilva slows down a bit in the 3rd round. I liked Aldana decision +155 and Aldana as a slight underdog.

I’ve waffled back and forth between these two takes. Looking at Aldana’s Instagram she seems pretty serious about working out hard to promote her physicality. Don’t see much of that from Pudilova and the skill sets don’t differ widely enough if at all for me to think Pudilova def makes up the physicality gap. Also, if I’m recalling correctly, Pudilova wears strikes a bit worse. Gets a bit bloody and roughed up looking. Makes optics even worse for judges.

Has Aldana ever had weight cut problems? She looks so much more solid than Pudilova.

[Sanity Check]

[MMANick]

Woodley is afraid to fight Colby Covington.

Woodley got mad after RDA took the interim fight with Colby saying RDA made a mistake. Woodley didn't want Colby anywhere near being in title contention. Then Woodley starting saying ridiculous bs like people in his hometown might kill Colby Covington even if Woodley didn't ask them to. Then Woodley started making comments about Colby Covington's sister. Woodley is way out of line on everything to do with Colby.

Im not going to break it down for anyone. But yeah Woodley saying Darren Till is a tougher fight is close to being an admission of defeat imo.

Woodley will knock that clown out if they fight.

[Teem]

I know some of you don't do parlays and if i do i don't make this many picks but I'm thinking about doing this one for fun since I had a good night on the Lincoln card...

Diego Sanchez ML +195
Alex White ML -150
Sterling ML -140
Byrd ML -225
Andrade/Karolina O2.5 -240
Dodson/Rivera O2.5 -335
Shevchenko/Montano Won't start R5 -144

$20 to win $739... What do you guys think? I could also swap out one of these for Byrd/Stewart Fight starts R2 for -115. Or Camacho/Neal fight starts R2 -263, or Camacho/Neal fight starts R3 -124. Because I also feel good about these.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I know some of you don't do parlays and if i do i don't make this many picks but I'm thinking about doing this one for fun since I had a good night on the Lincoln card...

Diego Sanchez ML +195
Alex White ML -150
Sterling ML -140
Byrd ML -225
Andrade/Karolina O2.5 -240
Dodson/Rivera O2.5 -335
Shevchenko/Montano Won't start R5 -144

$20 to win $739... What do you guys think?

I'm personally big on Stamann but like the rest of the picks.

[Thrilla]

The Till Hype Train is out of control. Dimes opened Woodley (-145) but a ton of action has come in on Till since then.

Though I'm not touching a side. I'm going with under 4.5 rounds. It makes sense with the two hardest punchers in the welterweight division.

Don't like Woodley acknowledging that the Till hype is real.

+ The ringrust

+Age difference

+Woodley talking about trying to get back to the old Woodley when he was young and hungry. Ok he is aware he can't underestimate Till but why does he talk like this?

To conclude this fight reminds me of 'Rocky III'
When Rocky was slipping cause of all the celeb stuff he was doing, eventually losing to Clubber Lang. Woodley kinda in same situation with the side activities like TMZ and what not.

Till being Clubber Lang in this spot.

[Thrilla]

Locked in on the itd and under.

Till or pass mode atm as far as sides.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Locked in on the itd and under.

Till or pass mode atm as far as sides.

Do we have bad blood here? Doesn't seem like it to me but I haven't followed the pre-fight media closely.

[turbozed]

I’ve waffled back and forth between these two takes. Looking at Aldana’s Instagram she seems pretty serious about working out hard to promote her physicality. Don’t see much of that from Pudilova and the skill sets don’t differ widely enough if at all for me to think Pudilova def makes up the physicality gap. Also, if I’m recalling correctly, Pudilova wears strikes a bit worse. Gets a bit bloody and roughed up looking. Makes optics even worse for judges.

Has Aldana ever had weight cut problems? She looks so much more solid than Pudilova.

Looking at Tapology, in her last 8 fights she missed weight once at 136.6. You're right that she looks pretty big for the division so she must be at the higher end and has a decent camp or nutritionist to help her get down.

I'd cap Aldana as a slight favorite here, like -150. The problem with WMMA high volume mirror fights is always going to be incompetent judging. Fights that are close with one fighter edging the other one out in theory are generally just coinflips because judges don't seem to have the attention span or knowledge to keep track of details. So big moments and optics become a bigger factor. It's probably too risky to pay a significant amount of juice in these types of situations.

[turbozed]

I'm personally big on Stamann but like the rest of the picks.

I've been on Stamann money train since he debuted in the UFC. But I've liked how Aljo looked recently as well. What do you see in this fight to justify a big bet? I'll go ahead and do tape and double check your angle.

[ichiro4thehall]

Huge price move on Till last couple of hours. Anyone have any ideas. He couldn't be certain of making weight at this stage, could he?

[Hugo de Naranja]

I've been on Stamann money train since he debuted in the UFC. But I've liked how Aljo looked recently as well. What do you see in this fight to justify a big bet? I'll go ahead and do tape and double check your angle.

I think that Stamann's skills are slightly better in all phases. Stamann showcased Excellent Takedown Defense against Bryan Caraway and I think he is a better technical striker than Sterling, who mostly just throws BS Elias Theodorou style kicks then runs away. I could see Caraway winning with a wrestling and top control approach or overcoming his reach disadvantage to outbox Sterling in the pocket. Although I favor the fight to be a relatively close decision, I trust Stamann's more robust skillset to carry the close rounds.

[Demonata]

Woodley +128? S there something I'm misding? I capped woodley at -175 or even -200.

[ichiro4thehall]

I think it's almost a result of the Johnson-Cejudo fight decision. Woodley especially, and Johnson were seen as less marketable guys and the UFC and Dana especially would like to see more entertaining champs to market.

It felt like Cejudo got that decision because everyone knew Dana wanted him to win, and here, everyone knows Dana wants Till to win.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think it's almost a result of the Johnson-Cejudo fight decision. Woodley especially, and Johnson were seen as less marketable guys and the UFC and Dana especially would like to see more entertaining champs to market.

It felt like Cejudo got that decision because everyone knew Dana wanted him to win, and here, everyone knows Dana wants Till to win.

How does Dana wanting someone to win affect how judges score a fight? I think those scorecards had more to do with Cejudo being in front of a home crowd who made a big deal out of every TD that he completed despite him not doing any damage, attempting submissions, or passing Johnson's guard.

[ichiro4thehall]

I could ask the same: how does a crowd going mad affect how judges score a fight?

[Hugo de Naranja]

I could ask the same: how does a crowd going mad affect how judges score a fight?

When people react by shouting and bringing attention to the things that their preferred fighter does, judges take notice. By the same token, if they don't react to an opposing fighter accomplishing some significant offense, judges are more likely to miss it.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Even more, the crowd yelling like a strike landed when it missed can often help a hometown fighter.

[ichiro4thehall]

When people react by shouting and bringing attention to the things that their preferred fighter does, judges take notice. By the same token, if they don't react to an opposing fighter accomplishing some significant offense, judges are more likely to miss it.

Nice answer. Good judges should neither be swayed by crowd reaction nor the wishes or shekels of a promotor. But almost all judges are swayed by one or both to different degrees.

I admit my Johnson/Woodley theory is a bit ropey.

What do you think has caused this Till shift tonight?

[Sanity Check]

Huge price move on Till last couple of hours. Anyone have any ideas. He couldn't be certain of making weight at this stage, could he?

0:34

Darren Till says he weighed "182 lbs" this morning.

[ichiro4thehall]

Cheers, Sanity.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Nice answer. Good judges should neither be swayed by crowd reaction nor the wishes or shekels of a promotor. But almost all judges are swayed by one or both to different degrees.

I admit my Johnson/Woodley theory is a bit ropey.

What do you think has caused this Till shift tonight?

I know some sharps that really like Till. They might've been putting in their bets today. Aside from that not sure.

[Thrilla]

Huge price move on Till last couple of hours. Anyone have any ideas. He couldn't be certain of making weight at this stage, could he?

Wow I was in Till or pass mode @-105. This move is surprising though.

[Thrilla]

Do we have bad blood here? Doesn't seem like it to me but I haven't followed the pre-fight media closely.

No just the stylistic matchup line is too high.
Infact I expect a mutual respect conservative start. But then again I would even bet under 2.5 @-110...risking less. When they enter the pocket bombs will land.

Maybe plan betting under in live as well.

[Hugo de Naranja]

No just the stylistic matchup line is too high.
Infact I expect a mutual respect conservative start. But then again I would even bet under 2.5 @-110...risking less. When they enter the pocket bombs will land.

Maybe plan betting under in live as well.

Fair enough. I've been keeping an eye on your Bad Blood Under Bets and they've been doing well. Keep it up!

[turbozed]

I could ask the same: how does a crowd going mad affect how judges score a fight?

The crowd has a huge effect on both judges and referees. In fact it probably accounts for almost all of home field advantage. Sports where the crowd is closer to the action and where there are lots of 50/50 judgment calls (e.g. basketball) have much larger home court advantages because of this effect. This has been studied by statisticians. If you're interested, there's a Radiolab podcast about this exact topic.