UFC on FOX 30: Alvarez vs. Poirier(July 28, 2018)

[JIBBBY]

This is how I'm rolling.. Let's see how these picks go??? No hedging on this card for Jibs... GL everyone!!!

1) Powell ITD
2) Arsanof Dec
3) Ortiz straight
4) Chookagan Dec
5) Makadasi Dec
6) Atigulov Sub
7) Makhachev Dec
8) Dawuodu KO
9) Morono Straight
10) OAM Straight
11) JJ Dec
12) Lil Heathen KO
13) Eddie Alvarez KO

[JC2008]

This is how I'm rolling.. Let's see how these picks go??? No hedging on this card for Jibs... GL everyone!!!

1) Powell ITD
2) Arsanof Dec
3) Ortiz straight
4) Chookagan Dec
5) Makadasi Dec
6) Atigulov Sub
7) Makhachev Dec
8) Dawuodu KO
9) Morono Straight
10) OAM Straight
11) JJ Dec
12) Lil Heathen KO
13) Eddie Alvarez KO

Let's get this Jibbby!

[stonebanks]

Some early prelim picks by me:
Ortiz vs nicolau - nicolau

Markos vs ansaroff - markos

Antigulov vs cutelaba:
Antigulov
Antigulov by submission round 2
Hedge - cutelaba round 1

Dawodu vs arnett - dawodu

[JIBBBY]

Let's get this Jibbby!

[UncleChael]

Jose Aldo might just murder Jeremy Stephens tonight. Tell em Uncle Chael sent yah. #YoureWelcome.

[turbozed]

Chookagian vs. Davis Breakdown

I think this matchupis pretty simple to understand. Davis will need to find a way to get this fightto the ground or Chookagian dances around her and picks her apart.


Chook made her UFCdebut against Murphy who was absolutely relentless looking to pressure and gether mitts on Chook. Despite it being her debut and having fought professionallyfor only 2 years, Chook was able to fight off the TDs for 2 out of 3 rounds andpot-shot her way to a clear 29-28 decision.


In her second fight,Chookagian wasn't able to stop the much faster and stronger Liz Carmouche, wholanded 4 TDs against Chook to win a split decision. Carmouche had the perfectentries to her TDs, closing distance with strikes and continuing to drive for aTD.


In her latest fight,Chook won another unanimous decision against Mara Borella. Fresh in ourmemories was the image of Chook punching at the air near Borella for 3 roundsand staying at distance. Though this conservative and boring performancedropped Chook's stock in the eyes of many, her ability to win the strikingexchanges against Borella while fighting off multiple TD attempts showed animpressive amount of patience and dedication to the gameplan. Borella's cornerwas imploring her to catch kicks, close distance, and land TDs and Chook'smovement and distance management left Borella absolutely flustered.


There's a lot ofreasons to think that Davis will have even less success getting Chookagian downthan Lauren Murphy and Mara Borella. Davis is slower and more plodding than anyof Chook's prior UFC opponents. Davis is only 33, but has been fighting professionallyfor 11 years. She also gave birth 2 years ago. Never much of an athlete, onecan imagine that all those fight years will add up soon, if they haven'talready.


Davis is also not aTD artist. She has landed 2 TDs since 2015. 1 was against Sarah Kaufman whereKaufman was actually attempting a TD of her own and got reversed. The other wasa kick catch which stumbled Carmouche backwards. One might be inclined to thinkthat Davis will be catching the many kicks of kick-happy Chookagian but I don'tthink it's likely. First off, Chookagian won't even need to kick here to winthe striking exchanges. Chook, if she does throw kicks, can throw them at theend of punch combos, which she has shown she can do in the past. Finally,Carmouche was throwing kicks at Davis in the pocket and was very off balanceddoing so. Chookagian's kicks are retracted faster and are thrown at distance.


Physically, Davisisn't strong or explosive enough to force Chookagian to the ground and willneed to be lucky to get it there. It may happen once in the fight, but onecan't rely on Davis doing it to win 2 out of 3 rounds (especially in the 3rdround where Davis slows down a bit).


This fight should becontested mostly on the feet where Chook will have a huge striking advantage.While criticized as an air-puncher, Chook landed over 100 strikes on IreneAldana, who is a legit striker. The fact that she committed less to her punchesand kicked much less against Borella seems to have been a calculated move toavoid being taken down. Even if she tries equally hard to maintain the distancehere, Davis has some of the worst striking defense in the WMMA and Chook's airpunches will inevitably land on the gravity well that is Davis' face, whichunfortunately for Davis shows damage as clearly as it takes damage.


Chookagian shouldwin a clear and wide decision here. She might even finish Davis late in thefight once damage accumulates.

[slikec]

Jose Aldo might just murder Jeremy Stephens tonight. Tell em Uncle Chael sent yah. #YoureWelcome.

That is third time you changed your opinion on that fight btw. First was Aldo than was Stephens now again Aldo. Odds suggests will be close fight and i would be all over Aldo if not for that he is thinking about legacy and retirement already.

[Hugo de Naranja]

This is going to be strange being at my first UFC Live and LIVE betting this bitch! Let's do this! First Fight Pass prelim starts at 2PM here lol. It's gonna be a long day! Good luck everyone!

Have a blast JC. Best of luck with your bets!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Then perhaps a Torres ML bet hedged with JJ decision parlayed with one of the other women's fights to go over 2.5 or gtd?

That's exactly what I did haha

[Hugo de Naranja]

Jose Aldo might just murder Jeremy Stephens tonight. Tell em Uncle Chael sent yah. #YoureWelcome.

Let's get it Unc. Not too many of us on Aldo.

[JC2008]

Have a blast JC. Best of luck with your bets!

Thanks Hugo! When are you posting your bets? Good luck to you and all!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Thanks Hugo! When are you posting your bets? Good luck to you and all!

Soon.

[JC2008]

Let's get it Unc. Not too many of us on Aldo.

I'm rolling with Aldo! Stephens decision odds are enticing for a poke though.

[JC2008]

Soon.

Awesome! Can't wait to see what you have.

[JIBBBY]

Jose Aldo might just murder Jeremy Stephens tonight. Tell em Uncle Chael sent yah. #YoureWelcome.

Maybe with leg kicks.. Aldo probably the better technical striker no doubt..

Still Lil Heathen has been winning fights lately, tough as hell, hard to knock out and can bang with the best of them.. If Aldo decides to stand and trade in the pocket at any time with Jeremy I think he'll come out of those exchanges unconscious and flat on his back...


Aldo hasn't been the same I think since he got dropped by McIrish..





Stephens does have some pop..

[Shagdogy]

Chookagian vs. Davis Breakdown

I think this matchupis pretty simple to understand. Davis will need to find a way to get this fightto the ground or Chookagian dances around her and picks her apart.


Chook made her UFCdebut against Murphy who was absolutely relentless looking to pressure and gether mitts on Chook. Despite it being her debut and having fought professionallyfor only 2 years, Chook was able to fight off the TDs for 2 out of 3 rounds andpot-shot her way to a clear 29-28 decision.


In her second fight,Chookagian wasn't able to stop the much faster and stronger Liz Carmouche, wholanded 4 TDs against Chook to win a split decision. Carmouche had the perfectentries to her TDs, closing distance with strikes and continuing to drive for aTD.


In her latest fight,Chook won another unanimous decision against Mara Borella. Fresh in ourmemories was the image of Chook punching at the air near Borella for 3 roundsand staying at distance. Though this conservative and boring performancedropped Chook's stock in the eyes of many, her ability to win the strikingexchanges against Borella while fighting off multiple TD attempts showed animpressive amount of patience and dedication to the gameplan. Borella's cornerwas imploring her to catch kicks, close distance, and land TDs and Chook'smovement and distance management left Borella absolutely flustered.


There's a lot ofreasons to think that Davis will have even less success getting Chookagian downthan Lauren Murphy and Mara Borella. Davis is slower and more plodding than anyof Chook's prior UFC opponents. Davis is only 33, but has been fighting professionallyfor 11 years. She also gave birth 2 years ago. Never much of an athlete, onecan imagine that all those fight years will add up soon, if they haven'talready.


Davis is also not aTD artist. She has landed 2 TDs since 2015. 1 was against Sarah Kaufman whereKaufman was actually attempting a TD of her own and got reversed. The other wasa kick catch which stumbled Carmouche backwards. One might be inclined to thinkthat Davis will be catching the many kicks of kick-happy Chookagian but I don'tthink it's likely. First off, Chookagian won't even need to kick here to winthe striking exchanges. Chook, if she does throw kicks, can throw them at theend of punch combos, which she has shown she can do in the past. Finally,Carmouche was throwing kicks at Davis in the pocket and was very off balanceddoing so. Chookagian's kicks are retracted faster and are thrown at distance.


Physically, Davisisn't strong or explosive enough to force Chookagian to the ground and willneed to be lucky to get it there. It may happen once in the fight, but onecan't rely on Davis doing it to win 2 out of 3 rounds (especially in the 3rdround where Davis slows down a bit).


This fight should becontested mostly on the feet where Chook will have a huge striking advantage.While criticized as an air-puncher, Chook landed over 100 strikes on IreneAldana, who is a legit striker. The fact that she committed less to her punchesand kicked much less against Borella seems to have been a calculated move toavoid being taken down. Even if she tries equally hard to maintain the distancehere, Davis has some of the worst striking defense in the WMMA and Chook's airpunches will inevitably land on the gravity well that is Davis' face, whichunfortunately for Davis shows damage as clearly as it takes damage.


Chookagian shouldwin a clear and wide decision here. She might even finish Davis late in thefight once damage accumulates.

I’m 100% with you. I think Chook keeps it standing and wins. Be wary of judges, but yeah.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on Fox 30: Poirier vs. Alvarez II Picks:
Alvaro Herrera Round 1 KO (Punches)
Nina Ansaroff Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Matheus Nicolau Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Alexis Davis Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
John Makdessi Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Gadzhimurad Antigulov Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Islam Makhachev Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Hakeem Dawodu Round 2 TKO (Punches and Elbows)
Alex Morono Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Olivier Aubin-Mercier Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Joanna Jedrzejczyk Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Jose Aldo Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Dustin Poirier Round 1 TKO (Punches)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on Fox 30: Poirier vs. Alvarez II

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Herrera vs. Powell
Herrera (+125) 2u

Hedge:
Powell Decision (+300) .5u

Fight #2: Ansaroff vs. Markos
Ansaroff (+105) 1u
Ansaroff ITD (+500) .5u

Fight #3: Nicolau vs. Ortiz
Nicolau (-175) 3.5u to win 2u
Nicolau -3.5 (+165) 1.5u
Nicolau ITD (+350) 1.5u
Nicolau Submission (+730) .5u

Fight #4: Davis vs. Chookagian
Davis (+145) 1.5u
Davis Decision (+235) 1u

Fight #5: Makdessi vs. Pearson
No Bet

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #6: Antigulov vs. Cutelaba
Antigulov Submission (+180) 1.5u
Antigulov Round 1 (+225) 1u
Antigulov KO/TKO (+1125) .5u

Hedge:
Cutelaba Decision (+525) 1u

Fight #7: Makhachev vs. Johnson
Makhachev KO/TKO (+365) 1u

Fight #8: Dawodu vs. Arnett
No Bet

Fight #9: Morono vs. Mein
Morono (+105) 1u

Hedge:
Mein ITD (+575) .5u

Main Card:

Fight #10: Aubin-Mercier vs. Hernandez
Aubin-Mercier (-132) 7.6u to win 5.75u
Aubin-Mercier Submission (+350) 1u

Hedge:
Hernandez KO/TKO (+445) 1u

Note: Planning to buy back a bit of the initial OAM ML bet here after watching some Hernandez regional scene tape. Will still be solid on OAM though.

Fight #11: Jedrzejczyk vs. Torres
Torres (+250) 1.5u

Hedge:
Jedrzejczyk Decision (-133) 2u to win 1.5u

Fight #12: Aldo vs. Stephens
Aldo (+100) 3.5u
Aldo Decision (+160) 2.5u
Aldo KO/TKO (+1085) .5u

Hedge(s):
Stephens ITD (+315) 1u
Stephens Round 3 (+1075) .5u

Fight #13: Poirier vs. Alvarez
Poirier Decision (+515) .5u

Hedge:
Alvarez KO/TKO (+330) 1u

Straight Parlays:
Nicolau/Poirier (+141) 2u
Nicolau/Aldo (+153) 1u
Antigulov/Aubin-Mercier (+159) 1u
Aldo/Poirier (+191) 1u
Nicolau/Aldo/Poirier (+352) .5u

Prop Parlays:
Morono+Mein Goes Distance/Jedrzejczyk+Torres GD (+113) 1u
Jedrzejczyk+Torres GD/Aldo+Stephens GD (+158) 2u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+119) 1.25u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+271) .5u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+895) .25u
Over 10.5 Fights Go Distance (+2950) .25u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Gillespie/Poirier (+114) 1u
Hooper/Aubin-Mercier (+127) 1u

[Shagdogy]

I’m on the following:

Herrera ML
Markos ML
Nicolau ML
Chook ML
Aldo ML
Antigulov/Cutelaba o1.5
Dawodu/Arnett o1.5
Johnson/Makhachev u2.5

Will post bet sizes when I get a chance... Nicolau is biggest and most others are win 1u. Good luck all.

[MMANick]

yes, learn to read clown before you tell someone something about what they write... just an idea. I left out the word "idiot," wow you really made a fantastic post there. Brilliant!

jackass lol

I'm the jackass because you can't type? Go spew your political garbage somewhere else on the forums. Fukkin idiot.

[MMANick]

Let's get it Unc. Not too many of us on Aldo.

I think Aldo may make this look easy.

[turbozed]

Chookagian Rd3 at +2050 might be worth a play for a hedge or lotto.

If Davis is unable to close the distance, then she will accumulate damage for the first 2 rounds. She slows down a bit already and shows a lot of damage, so a ref might stop it if Chookagian feels comfortable and flurries on Davis like Carmouche did in Rd3.

If Davis does get the fight to the ground and takes the advantage with top control in the first Round or two, Chookagian may commit a bit more to her punches and kicks and look to get Davis out of there.

Definitely not likely but better than 5% chance to justify the odds.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Chookagian Rd3 at +2050 might be worth a play for a hedge or lotto.

If Davis is unable to close the distance, then she will accumulate damage for the first 2 rounds. She slows down a bit already and shows a lot of damage, so a ref might stop it if Chookagian feels comfortable and flurries on Davis like Carmouche did in Rd3.

If Davis does get the fight to the ground and takes the advantage with top control in the first Round or two, Chookagian may commit a bit more to her punches and kicks and look to get Davis out of there.

Definitely not likely but better than 5% chance to justify the odds.

Yeah man I like the Long Shot Prop shot there. Could see it happening.

[boss_of_um]

@ Hugo I've always meant to ask about the 2 sets of picks. What does each grouping mean?

[Rich Benjamins]

Thanks for the writeup. I never liked Davis, she is slow and clumsy. But she did beat Carmouche recently which is suprising. Carmouche beat Chookagian and her last fight, the Invicta champion. So using MMA math, which often doens't work, Davis should be able to beat Chookagian.

Chookagian vs. Davis Breakdown

I think this matchupis pretty simple to understand. Davis will need to find a way to get this fightto the ground or Chookagian dances around her and picks her apart.


Chook made her UFCdebut against Murphy who was absolutely relentless looking to pressure and gether mitts on Chook. Despite it being her debut and having fought professionallyfor only 2 years, Chook was able to fight off the TDs for 2 out of 3 rounds andpot-shot her way to a clear 29-28 decision.


In her second fight,Chookagian wasn't able to stop the much faster and stronger Liz Carmouche, wholanded 4 TDs against Chook to win a split decision. Carmouche had the perfectentries to her TDs, closing distance with strikes and continuing to drive for aTD.


In her latest fight,Chook won another unanimous decision against Mara Borella. Fresh in ourmemories was the image of Chook punching at the air near Borella for 3 roundsand staying at distance. Though this conservative and boring performancedropped Chook's stock in the eyes of many, her ability to win the strikingexchanges against Borella while fighting off multiple TD attempts showed animpressive amount of patience and dedication to the gameplan. Borella's cornerwas imploring her to catch kicks, close distance, and land TDs and Chook'smovement and distance management left Borella absolutely flustered.


There's a lot ofreasons to think that Davis will have even less success getting Chookagian downthan Lauren Murphy and Mara Borella. Davis is slower and more plodding than anyof Chook's prior UFC opponents. Davis is only 33, but has been fighting professionallyfor 11 years. She also gave birth 2 years ago. Never much of an athlete, onecan imagine that all those fight years will add up soon, if they haven'talready.


Davis is also not aTD artist. She has landed 2 TDs since 2015. 1 was against Sarah Kaufman whereKaufman was actually attempting a TD of her own and got reversed. The other wasa kick catch which stumbled Carmouche backwards. One might be inclined to thinkthat Davis will be catching the many kicks of kick-happy Chookagian but I don'tthink it's likely. First off, Chookagian won't even need to kick here to winthe striking exchanges. Chook, if she does throw kicks, can throw them at theend of punch combos, which she has shown she can do in the past. Finally,Carmouche was throwing kicks at Davis in the pocket and was very off balanceddoing so. Chookagian's kicks are retracted faster and are thrown at distance.


Physically, Davisisn't strong or explosive enough to force Chookagian to the ground and willneed to be lucky to get it there. It may happen once in the fight, but onecan't rely on Davis doing it to win 2 out of 3 rounds (especially in the 3rdround where Davis slows down a bit).


This fight should becontested mostly on the feet where Chook will have a huge striking advantage.While criticized as an air-puncher, Chook landed over 100 strikes on IreneAldana, who is a legit striker. The fact that she committed less to her punchesand kicked much less against Borella seems to have been a calculated move toavoid being taken down. Even if she tries equally hard to maintain the distancehere, Davis has some of the worst striking defense in the WMMA and Chook's airpunches will inevitably land on the gravity well that is Davis' face, whichunfortunately for Davis shows damage as clearly as it takes damage.


Chookagian shouldwin a clear and wide decision here. She might even finish Davis late in thefight once damage accumulates.

[Hugo de Naranja]

@ Hugo I've always meant to ask about the 2 sets of picks. What does each grouping mean?

First set is picks. Second set is bets. Bets is the more important. That's what I'm taking with unit sizes.

[boss_of_um]

That makes sense. Like to cherry pick some suggestions to finish or use in parlays. Thanks!

[Hugo de Naranja]

That makes sense. Like to cherry pick some suggestions to finish or use in parlays. Thanks!

No problem. Best of luck tonight!

[Demonata]

Going to be fun watching johanna aldo and poirer win.

[Shagdogy]

UFC on FOX 30 Bets:
Herrera -117, 1.17u to win 1u
Markos +115, 1u to win 1.15u
Nicolau -190, 3.8u to win 2u
Chookagian -147, 1.47u to win 1u
Gadz/Cutelaba o1.5 -114, 1.14u to win 1u
Johnson/Makhachev u2.5 +165, .61u to win 1u
Dawodu/Arnett o1.5 -140, 1.4u to win 1u
Aldo -110, 1.1u to win 1u

Poirier + Dawodu parlay -113, 1.13u to win 1u

Good luck everyone! One fight that I'm super intrigued in that I decided to just stay away from was OAM/Hernandez. Really can't decide how I think it will go but I have the slightest hunch that Hernandez might be next level athletic to give OAM some real trouble. Enjoy and good luck!

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on FOX 30 Bets:
Herrera -117, 1.17u to win 1u
Markos +115, 1u to win 1.15u
Nicolau -190, 3.8u to win 2u
Chookagian -147, 1.47u to win 1u
Gadz/Cutelaba o1.5 -114, 1.14u to win 1u
Johnson/Makhachev u2.5 +165, .61u to win 1u
Dawodu/Arnett o1.5 -140, 1.4u to win 1u
Aldo -110, 1.1u to win 1u

Poirier + Dawodu parlay -113, 1.13u to win 1u

Good luck everyone! One fight that I'm super intrigued in that I decided to just stay away from was OAM/Hernandez. Really can't decide how I think it will go but I have the slightest hunch that Hernandez might be next level athletic to give OAM some real trouble. Enjoy and good luck!

Let's go Nicolau!

[Teem]

Conflicted here boys. Which prop should I add into my parlay.... Mein/Morono O2.5, Mak/Pearson O2.5, or Makdessi ML?

Or I could not worry about one of those 3 entirely and just swap one of those plays out for Dawodu+Islam in a prop I have...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Conflicted here boys. Which prop should I add into my parlay.... Mein/Morono O2.5, Mak/Pearson O2.5, or Makdessi ML?

Or I could not worry about one of those 3 entirely and just swap one of those plays out for Dawodu+Islam in a prop I have...

I'd go for Mak/Pearson O2.5

[stonebanks]

Herrera
Hedge Powell sub

Nicolau

Markos

Antigulov
Antogulov sub
Sub round 2
Hedge cutelab round 1ko

Hernandez mercier - fight ITD

Poirier

Aldo
Stephens ko
Stephens round 1
Hedge - aldo points

Parlays
Nicalau
Poirier
Antigulov

Herrera
Mercier
Antigulov

[Hugo de Naranja]

Herrera
Hedge Powell sub

Nicolau

Markos

Antigulov
Antogulov sub
Sub round 2
Hedge cutelab round 1ko

Hernandez mercier - fight ITD

Poirier

Aldo
Stephens ko
Stephens round 1
Hedge - aldo points

Parlays
Nicalau
Poirier
Antigulov

Herrera
Mercier
Antigulov

Best of luck Stone.