UFC Fight Night 129 | Till vs. Thompson | 5/27/2018 | Liverpool, England

**stonebanks** · 05-27-18, 07:21 AM

My picks for today:
Theodoru - decision
Pedersoli - win
Breese - Itd
Allen - win
Taleb - itd
Spicely sub - hedge Stewart ko
Knight - win
Magny - over 1.5 rounds
Thompson - win

**strictlypaypal** · 05-27-18, 08:21 AM

Originally posted by Bad Tattoo

Till has to weigh in under 188 lbs before the fight...usually he walks in there closer to 200 no?

He has to weigh under 188 by 1pm before the buses take off to the arena. He weighed in at 187. He has almost 8 hours to hydrate even more

**slikec** · 05-27-18, 08:40 AM

I dont understand why line is close WB vs Till. Am i missing that Till could present huge grappling advantages in fight? Cause standing up WB is a freaking killer. His kickboxing record is insane lol so this line looks so damn fishy to me. I am betting far less last years but this 1 is tempting me to pull a trigger lol.

**Shagdogy** · 05-27-18, 09:02 AM

Scott +132, risk 1u
Mazany -120, risk 2.5u
Breese KO/TKO +250, win 1u
Taleb KO/TKO +215, win 1u
Allen + Breese Parlay -112, win 1u
Thompson + Taleb parlay +120, win 1u
Johns (LFA) + McCann parlay +134, risk 1u

That’s it right now. May add a few other plays as the day goes. Good luck everyone.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-27-18, 09:28 AM

UFC Fight Night 130: Thompson vs. Till Picks:
Elias Theodorou Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Gillian Robertson Round 1 Submission (Armbar)
Carlo Pedersoli Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Gina Mazany Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Tom Breese Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Eric Spicely Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Nordine Taleb Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Makwan Amirkhani Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Arnold Allen Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Neil Magny Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-26 x2)
Stephen Thompson Unanimous Decision (50-45 x3)

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-27-18, 09:30 AM

UFC Fight Night 130: Thompson vs. Till

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Theodorou vs. Smith
Theodorou -3.5 (+100) 1u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #2: Robertson vs. McCann (DEBUT)
Robertson (+175) 1u
Robertson ITD (+335) 1u

Fight #3: Scott vs. Pedersoli (DEBUT)
Pedersoli Decision (+210) 1u

Fight #4: Mazany vs. Lansberg
Mazany ITD (+450) 1u

Fight #5: Breese vs. Kelly
Breese KO/TKO (+265) 1u
Breese Round 1 (+350) 1u

Hedge:
Kelly Round 3 (+3200) .25u

Main Card:

Fight #6: Spicely vs. Stewart
Spicely+Stewart Won’t Start Round 2 (+125) 2u

Fight #7: Taleb vs. Silva
Taleb KO/TKO (+285) 1u
Taleb Round 2 (+700) .5u
Taleb Round 3 (+1233) .5u

Hedge:
Silva Submission (+940) .5u

Fight #8: Amirkhani vs. Knight
Amirkhani (+135) 1.5u
Amirkhani Submission (+725) .5u

Fight #9: Allen vs. Burnell
Allen -3.5 (+100) .5u

Fight #10: Magny vs. White (DEBUT)
Magny Decision (+257) 1u
Magny Round 3 (+800) .5u

Hedge(s):
White ITD (+875) 1u
White Round 1 (+1450) .5u

Fight #11: Thompson vs. Till
Thompson (-123) 5u to win 4.0625u
Thompson Unanimous Decision (+405) 1u
Thompson Round 3 (+1150) .5u
Thompson Round 4 (+1750) .25u
Thompson Round 5 (+2400) .25u
Thompson+Till Draw (+8000) .25u

Hedge(s):
Till Decision (+400) 1u
Till Round 1 (+625) 1u
Till Split/Majority Decision (+1090) .5u

Straight Parlays:
Allen/Magny+White WGD (+109) 1u
Pedersoli/Taleb (+112) 2u
Taleb+Silva GD/Allen (+139) 1u
Theodorou+Smith GD/Taleb+Silva GD (+155) 1u

Prop Parlays:
Breese -3.5/Taleb -3.5 (+147) 1u
Mazany/Breese+Kelly Won’t Go Distance (+269) .5u
Spicely/Taleb/Amirkhani (+412) .5u
Theodorou Decision/Robertson/Pedersoli (+572) .5u
Allen Decision/Magny+White Goes Distance/Thompson (+1025) .25u

Full Card Props:
Over 6.5 Fights Go Distance (+159) 1.25u
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+438) .5u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+1372) .25u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Magomedsharipov -3.5/Thompson (-102) 1.02u to win 1u
Carlos Junior/Thompson (+121) 2.5u
Suarez -3.5/Thompson (+130) 3.5u

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-27-18, 09:38 AM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Scott +132, risk 1u
Mazany -120, risk 2.5u
Breese KO/TKO +250, win 1u
Taleb KO/TKO +215, win 1u
Allen + Breese Parlay -112, win 1u
Thompson + Taleb parlay +120, win 1u
Johns (LFA) + McCann parlay +134, risk 1u

That’s it right now. May add a few other plays as the day goes. Good luck everyone.

I like all these except Scott, as we discussed.

**Shagdogy** · 05-27-18, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Scott +132, risk 1u
Mazany -120, risk 2.5u
Breese KO/TKO +250, win 1u
Taleb KO/TKO +215, win 1u
Allen + Breese Parlay -112, win 1u
Thompson + Taleb parlay +120, win 1u
Johns (LFA) + McCann parlay +134, risk 1u

That’s it right now. May add a few other plays as the day goes. Good luck everyone.

Added a hedge to my McCann parlay:

Robertson sub +350, win 1u

**Biffsbook** · 05-27-18, 09:43 AM

Theodorou decision
Taleb ko
Spicely sub
Knight sub
Thomson ko round 4/5
Pedersoli
Allen decision
Lansberg decision
Magny ITD

**Shagdogy** · 05-27-18, 09:46 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I like all these except Scott, as we discussed.

All this weight cut stuff, particularly the having to weigh in 188 today, made me finally give up on that gut feel and go with my brain for a little play on Thompson. Good luck today.

**Shagdogy** · 05-27-18, 09:48 AM

The only "gut feel" play that I can't get off my mind now is Darren Stewart to take out Spicely. The athleticism and speed advantage is just enormous, and the gameplan for beating Spicely has to be the easiest one he's ever needed to follow, so if Stewart was EVER going have enough IQ for a gameplan then today might be the day.

**Shagdogy** · 05-27-18, 10:04 AM

Well... I win something with McCann here but my heart is rooting for Gillian Robertson to get that sub.

**boss_of_um** · 05-27-18, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

UFC Fight Night 130: Thompson vs. Till Picks:
Elias Theodorou Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Gillian Robertson Round 1 Submission (Armbar)
Carlo Pedersoli Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Gina Mazany Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Tom Breese Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Eric Spicely Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Nordine Taleb Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Makwan Amirkhani Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Arnold Allen Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Neil Magny Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-26 x2)
Stephen Thompson Unanimous Decision (50-45 x3)

Thanks for giving me the 1st fight on this card to finish off this parlay Hugo. Let's get some

5/26/18 6:47pm	$40.00	$346.08	$386.08	Win	3 Team Parlay
					Win	5/26/18 7:30pm Venezuela Soccer 2704 Draw (Mineros Guayana (VEN) vs Deportivo La Guaira (VEN)) +215* vs Mineros Guayana (VEN)
	5/26/18 10:06pm				Win	5/26/18 10:10pm MLB Baseball 924 Seattle Mariners -127* vs Minnesota Twins (J Odorizzi - R must Start W LeBlanc - L must Start)
	5/27/18 10:33am				Win	5/27/18 10:30am MMA Props Fighting 2011 Theodorou wins by 3 round decision -140* vs Not Theodorou by 3 round decision

**turbozed** · 05-27-18, 10:07 AM

On the over 2.5 and hedge Robertson SUB on this Meatball/Gillian fight

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-27-18, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by boss_of_um

Thanks for giving me the 1st fight on this card to finish off this parlay Hugo. Let's get some

5/26/18 6:47pm	$40.00	$346.08	$386.08	Win	3 Team Parlay
					Win	5/26/18 7:30pm Venezuela Soccer 2704 Draw (Mineros Guayana (VEN) vs Deportivo La Guaira (VEN)) +215* vs Mineros Guayana (VEN)
	5/26/18 10:06pm				Win	5/26/18 10:10pm MLB Baseball 924 Seattle Mariners -127* vs Minnesota Twins (J Odorizzi - R must Start W LeBlanc - L must Start)
	5/27/18 10:33am				Win	5/27/18 10:30am MMA Props Fighting 2011 Theodorou wins by 3 round decision -140* vs Not Theodorou by 3 round decision

**Shagdogy** · 05-27-18, 10:13 AM

Very nice first round by Robertson. Hope she lands that sub.... Robertson decision is worst case for me.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-27-18, 10:17 AM

Welp that was an easy 2.1 points on Toutmaster and a couple bet wins. Don't talk shit about my girl Robertson, Turbo.

**Shagdogy** · 05-27-18, 10:17 AM

That's a really excellent fight from a young girl at a great camp for WMMA right now. Good for her.

**Shagdogy** · 05-27-18, 10:17 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Welp that was an easy 2.1 points on Toutmaster and a couple bet wins. Don't talk shit about my girl Robertson, Turbo.

LOL. I came around and picked her in toutmaster. Glad I hedged sub too. She looked excellent. The way she got the fight to the mat in round 2 was real slick.

**turbozed** · 05-27-18, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Welp that was an easy 2.1 points on Toutmaster and a couple bet wins. Don't talk shit about my girl Robertson, Turbo.

I was looking to bet Molly after the line drop but swerved after tape. Molly's ground game was an unknown and now we know it's terrible. Lucky I hedged with the Gillian sub

**turbozed** · 05-27-18, 10:25 AM

Got Pedersoli and o2.5 here. Tiny stab on sub. Not all that confident since who knows how Scott is gonna look here.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-27-18, 10:32 AM

Added Hedge:
Scott Submission (+755) .5u

**Shagdogy** · 05-27-18, 10:35 AM

My read here is that Pedersoli Jr is the more well-rounded, exciting fighter, but that Scott might be able to physically impose himself with his reach, control the cage, and land some big shots. Pedersoli may just make me look like an idiot. Let's see.

**Shagdogy** · 05-27-18, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Scott +132, risk 1u
Mazany -120, risk 2.5u
Breese KO/TKO +250, win 1u
Taleb KO/TKO +215, win 1u
Allen + Breese Parlay -112, win 1u
Thompson + Taleb parlay +120, win 1u
Johns (LFA) + McCann parlay +134, risk 1u

That’s it right now. May add a few other plays as the day goes. Good luck everyone.

Added a hedge to my McCann parlay:

Robertson sub +350, win 1u

Added:

Stewart +140, win 1u
Amirkhani +140, win 1u

Thinking at least one of these guys can pull it out.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-27-18, 10:48 AM

Live Hedge:
Scott (+180) .75u

Hedging off a bit of my Pedersoli exposure. Don't trust the British judges to score the fight correctly and R3 could be close.

**Broxbomber** · 05-27-18, 10:51 AM

Could Round 1 of been 10-8 Scott? I put $20 on a draw at +4000 and +2800

**Broxbomber** · 05-27-18, 10:53 AM

Live bet after 1st and 2nd round.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-27-18, 10:56 AM

Originally posted by Broxbomber

Could Round 1 of been 10-8 Scott? I put $20 on a draw at +4000 and +2800

I don't think so. He had a Knockdown but other than that the striking exchanges were very even. Would need boxing judges to score it a 10-8. At those odds, you never know though.

**turbozed** · 05-27-18, 10:56 AM

Woooot O2.5 and Pedersoli winner

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-27-18, 10:56 AM

Should not have even been a split. Which round did Scott win other than R1?

**Broxbomber** · 05-27-18, 10:56 AM

Are these old rules or new rules? Was looking for a 10-8 in the first as Scott almost finished. I still like the bet at those odds and at that point in the fight.

**turbozed** · 05-27-18, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Live Hedge:
Scott (+180) .75u

Hedging off a bit of my Pedersoli exposure. Don't trust the British judges to score the fight correctly and R3 could be close.

You were right about that judging. Who in their right minds can give Scott both rounds 2 and 3?

**Broxbomber** · 05-27-18, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Should not have even been a split. Which round did Scott win other than R1?

Scott only won round 1. It shouldn’t have been a split. Maybe something to watch for the rest of the bouts.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 05-27-18, 10:59 AM

Hit my first Prop Parlay of the night

Theodorou Decision/Robertson/Pedersoli (+572) +2.86u

**turbozed** · 05-27-18, 10:59 AM

Let's go Elbow Queen/Princess!