UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman (May 19, 2018)

[SmellMyFinger]

I want to see all the props first. Pretty big on Prazeres at (+125) and now he's up to (+150) on Dimes.

i was having similar leans initially regarding prazeres but looking at the actual stylistic match up he is facing someone who has a size advantage over him (that he never had in a fight before), and who can mach him in the grappling department, if i would be prazeres now it would only be as a decision prop at +265, because i don't see him submitting cummings or winning by ko, i only see him flashing some hard hooks to get cummings to cover up and get inside for a bodylock and inside trip tkd, and ride out rounds for a decision. but i think cummings at ML -140 is still bettable and the more long term profitable bet

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not worried about the size difference or Prazares' age?

Nope. I think that’s why we’re getting a good price. Size is a super overrated factor for betting a fight imo. Prazeres has showed a lot of skill in the UFC and has some big wins over guys like Mairbek Taisumov and Gilbert Burns. I’m confident he can get the win despite being the smaller man (like he was in height and reach in every LW matchup).

[Hugo de Naranja]

It’s like when Lineker moved up to Bantamweight (where he is 6-1 in the UFC with his only loss being to the current champion). When he fought guys like Rivera, Font, and McDonald, people talked about those guys using their huge height and reach advantages to outstrike him at range but that didn’t happen in any of those matchups. Size doesn’t matter if a fighter is effective at implementing their game, something Lineker and Prazeres have both done countless times against bigger opponents.

[Rich Benjamins]

Nope. I think that’s why we’re getting a good price. Size is a super overrated factor for betting a fight imo. Prazeres has showed a lot of skill in the UFC and has some big wins over guys like Mairbek Taisumov and Gilbert Burns. I’m confident he can get the win despite being the smaller man (like he was in height and reach in every LW matchup).

I like the pick. Cummings is no slouch, but Prazeres is a very special fighter.

[Teem]

^ I'm sold on Prazeres now

[SmellMyFinger]

good luck prazeres backers, i only have 1 wager on cummings so i won't be too salty if you guys are right, i do like prazeres as a fighter just feel like he has to prove he can win fights at ww when he dose not have the strength advantage he had over most of his opponents at lw

[Teem]

Likin Benitez by sub. And I'm wanting to pick Pantoja but idk if he can stop Moreno's take downs.

[Shagdogy]

Likin Benitez by sub. And I'm wanting to pick Pantoja but idk if he can stop Moreno's take downs.

Benitez has a very solid guillotine and I think he will force Bandenay to shoot when he gets a taste of Benitez’s striking. Can def see a sub happening.

[Shagdogy]

Bet Botelho at -165 and now it’s -145. I think I’m disrespecting Kondo a bit here, but I really feel her pressure can cost her as it should bring out the big, heavy counters of Botelho.

[turbozed]

Bet Botelho at -165 and now it’s -145. I think I’m disrespecting Kondo a bit here, but I really feel her pressure can cost her as it should bring out the big, heavy counters of Botelho.

I laid off on this one despite capping it. Think the line is about right where it is. Botelho has a higher athletic ceiling but I can't gauge where she's at now with her striking. Her low volume and low hands are a problem but that might be a factor of being afraid of the takedowns against Pearl.

Should be a banger of a fight though if they both come looking to strike.

[Shagdogy]

I laid off on this one despite capping it. Think the line is about right where it is. Botelho has a higher athletic ceiling but I can't gauge where she's at now with her striking. Her low volume and low hands are a problem but that might be a factor of being afraid of the takedowns against Pearl.

Should be a banger of a fight though if they both come looking to strike.

Yeah I’m hoping the pressure of Kondo will bring out the best in Botelho. If she doesn’t have big moments early, I worry a little about her gas. Kondo never stops moving forward. We’ll see. Eye test just makes Botelho look a bit more of a fighter.

[Shagdogy]

Turbo, you have anything you really like?

I have Benitez in a couple parlays. I like him at the price. Silva should be a good parlay piece as well I think.

[Shagdogy]

Barzola -190, win 1u
Botelho -165, win1u
Prazeres +145, win 1u
Benitez + Silva Parlay -113, win 1.25u
Benitez + Reyes parlay +120, risk 1u
Pantoja + Benitez u2.5 parlay +243, win 1.5u

May add some more. Been busy out of town with a family wedding. If anyone sees any obvious value I’m missing tip me off. My mind has been elsewhere for this one.

[turbozed]

Turbo, you have anything you really like?

I have Benitez in a couple parlays. I like him at the price. Silva should be a good parlay piece as well I think.

I didn't really cap this card as much due to a lot of travelling (in Mexico last week and LA this week). Took a look at Botelho/Kondo and Reyes/Cannonier and wasn't able to pull trigger on the dogs in either.

I do have a double with Usman + Luque double when both were a bit cheaper and it paid out about even.

Was going to bet Cummings earlier but you guys made me swerve off of it.

[Shagdogy]

I didn't really cap this card as much due to a lot of travelling (in Mexico last week and LA this week). Took a look at Botelho/Kondo and Reyes/Cannonier and wasn't able to pull trigger on the dogs in either.

I do have a double with Usman + Luque double when both were a bit cheaper and it paid out about even.

Was going to bet Cummings earlier but you guys made me swerve off of it.

I have that fight pretty much dead even. A few unknowns so +145 just to win 1u wasn’t too much risk.

[JIBBBY]

Well this is how I'm playing it fellas.. Found myself hedging a bit again with this event.. See what sticks???

Most bets $100 as usual, some hedges for $50.. No load up plays on this card.. Just trying to grind out another win here..

Good luck everyone, let's make that money!!!

1) Silva KO and RND 1 finish prop
2) Saenz Straight
3) Barzola by Dec
4) Benitez by Dec/ hedged Humberto sub
5) Kondo by Dec/hedged Botelho KO
6) Patoja Dec/hedged Moreno sub
7) Prazeres by Dec
8) Luque ITD/hedged Laprise Straight
9) Macedo Dec/hedged Lee sub
10) Rivas by sub/hedge Cannnetti ITD
11) Reyes ITD/hedge Cannonier KO
12) Saurez by Sub/hedged Grasso straight
13) Maia Sub/hedged Usman by Dec

[Hugo de Naranja]

Well this is how I'm playing it fellas.. Found myself hedging a bit again with this event.. See what sticks???

Most bets $100 as usual, some hedges for $50.. No load up plays on this card.. Just trying to grind out another win here..

Good luck everyone, let's make that money!!!

1) Silva KO and RND 1 finish prop
2) Saenz Straight
3) Barzola by Dec
4) Benitez by Dec/ hedged Humberto sub
5) Kondo by Dec/hedged Botelho KO
6) Patoja Dec/hedged Moreno sub
7) Prazeres by Dec
8) Luque ITD/hedged Laprise Straight
9) Macedo Dec/hedged Lee sub
10) Rivas by sub/hedge Cannnetti ITD
11) Reyes ITD/hedge Cannonier KO
12) Saurez by Sub/hedged Grasso straight
13) Maia Sub/hedged Usman by Dec

Best of luck buddy!

[Sanity Check]

Benitez has a very solid guillotine and I think he will force Bandenay to shoot when he gets a taste of Benitez’s striking. Can def see a sub happening.

Was Benitez the one who gave up those super easy double legs against Enrique Barzola? Wtf happened to him in that fight?

That was super bizarre how Benitez kept his knees very close together allowing Barzola those easy double legs over and over.

I think Benitez will win. But that Barzola fight was some serious twilight zone !@#%.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Was Benitez the one who gave up those super easy double legs against Enrique Barzola? Wtf happened to him in that fight?

That was super bizarre how Benitez kept his knees very close together allowing Barzola those easy double legs over and over.

I think Benitez will win. But that Barzola fight was some serious twilight zone !@#%.

His TDD isn't that great in general but I don't think that will be too big a deal here.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 129: Maia vs. Usman Picks:
Felipe Silva Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Frankie Saenz Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Enrique Barzola Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Gabriel Benitez Round 2 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Poliana Botelho Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Alexandre Pantoja Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Michel Prazeres Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Vicente Luque Round 1 Submission (D’arce Choke)
Andrea Lee Round 3 Submission (Armbar)
Diego Rivas Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Dominick Reyes Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Tatiana Suarez Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Kamaru Usman Unanimous Decision (50-45, 49-46 x2)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 129: Maia vs. Usman

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Silva vs. Puelles
Silva+Puelles Under 1.5 (+105) 1u
Silva Round 1 (+165) 1u

Fight #2: Saenz vs. Briones
Briones (+275) 1u

Fight #3: Barzola vs. Davis
Barzola Decision (+105) 2u
Barzola Submission (+626) .5u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #4: Benitez vs. Bandenay
Benitez -3.5 (+110) 2u
Benitez Submission (+220) 1u

Fight #5: Botelho vs. Kondo
Botelho KO/TKO (+340) 1u

Fight #6: Pantoja vs. Moreno
Pantoja (-115) 2.3u to win 2u
Pantoja ITD (+305) 1u
Pantoja Submission (+450) .5u

Hedge:
Moreno ITD (+482) .75u

Fight #7: Prazeres vs. Cummings
Prazeres (+125) 4u
Prazeres Decision (+265) 1u
Prazeres Scorecards = No Action (+300) 1u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Luque vs. Laprise
Luque ITD (+110) 2.5u
Luque -3.5 (+120) 1u

Hedge:
Laprise Decision (+350) 1u

Fight #9: Lee (DEBUT) vs. Macedo
Lee Submission (+490) 2u

Hedge:
Macedo Scorecards = No Action (+347) 1u

Fight #10: Rivas vs. Cannetti
Rivas+Cannetti Won’t Go Distance (+100) 2.5u
Rivas Submission (+484) .5u

Hedge:
Cannetti Round 1 (+575) .5u

Fight #11: Reyes vs. Cannonier
Reyes Round 1 (+275) 1u

Hedge:
Cannonier KO/TKO (+700) .5u

Fight #12: Suarez vs. Grasso
Suarez ITD (+200) 1u

Fight #13: Usman vs. Maia
Usman Unanimous Decision (+300) 1u

Hedge(s):
Maia ITD (+686) 1u
Maia Round 1 (+1700) .5u

Straight Parlays:
Rivas/Usman (+107) 1u
Barzola/Lee (+109) 1u
Lee/Reyes (+109) 1u
Silva+Puelles WGD/Barzola+Davis GD (+130) 1.5u
Barzola/Benitez (+145) 1u
Barzola+Davis GD/Prazeres+Cummings GD (+153) 1u
Benitez/Botelho/Pantoja (+372) .5u

Prop Parlays:
Silva KO/Briones -3.5/Barzola -3.5 (+795) .25u
Prazeres/Luque -3.5/Lee -3.5 (+833) .25u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+167) 1.25u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+422) .5u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+1188) .25u

Multi-Event Parlays:
None

[JIBBBY]

^^ Good luck Hugo, I see we are on opposite sides on a few fights..

[Teem]

I wanna pick Maia by sub so bad haha

[Teem]

Usman - KO/TKO - RD 4
Suarez - DEC
Reyes - KO/TKO - RD 1
Rivas - DEC
Lee - SUB - RD 3
Luque - SUB - RD 1
Prazeres - DEC
Pantoja - DEC
Botelho - DEC
Benitez - SUB - RD 2
Barzola - DEC
Saenz - DEC
Silva - KO/TKO - RD 1

[Shagdogy]

Wow, my book just randomly started accepting props in parlays. Put a small one in just to see if it would take it and it did. This will certainly open up some options if it stays.

[Shagdogy]

Barzola -190, win 1u
Botelho -165, win1u
Prazeres +145, win 1u
Benitez + Silva Parlay -113, win 1.25u
Benitez + Reyes parlay +120, risk 1u
Pantoja + Benitez u2.5 parlay +243, win 1.5u

May add some more. Been busy out of town with a family wedding. If anyone sees any obvious value I’m missing tip me off. My mind has been elsewhere for this one.

Added:

Grasso/Suarez won’t go to decision +175, win 1u
Cannetti/Rivas won’t go to decision -105, win 1u
Benitez sub +222, risk 1u
Rivas sub + Pantoja sub parlay, +3090, risk .25u

I definitely meant to bet that Benitez sub line to WIN 1u. Damn. More than I wanted on that.

[Shagdogy]

Wow. Neither of these guys looking very good at all. Hoping Silva pulls it out. He seems to have the edge.

[turbozed]

That was a 10-8 round there for Silva in that 2nd. Puelles looked good for the first couple minutes then the wheels fell off.

[turbozed]

WOW what an amazing comeback!

That was Hermansson-esque!

[JC2008]

- The f uck was that... Fight should have been stopped long before the stoppage.

[Shagdogy]

You have to be effing kidding me. Uuuuuuugggghhh. Is it gonna be one of those kinds of nights?

[Shagdogy]

Starts like that just make me wooooorrried. Wtf.

[boss_of_um]

I am guessing Silva lost? F*ck!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Impressive comeback from Puelles. Didn't see that one coming.

[JC2008]

- I have a feeling a lot of dogs are gonna cash tonight...