UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman (May 19, 2018)

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  • SmellMyFinger
    SBR High Roller
    • 04-15-18
    • 117

    #36
    Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
    I want to see all the props first. Pretty big on Prazeres at (+125) and now he's up to (+150) on Dimes.
    i was having similar leans initially regarding prazeres but looking at the actual stylistic match up he is facing someone who has a size advantage over him (that he never had in a fight before), and who can mach him in the grappling department, if i would be prazeres now it would only be as a decision prop at +265, because i don't see him submitting cummings or winning by ko, i only see him flashing some hard hooks to get cummings to cover up and get inside for a bodylock and inside trip tkd, and ride out rounds for a decision. but i think cummings at ML -140 is still bettable and the more long term profitable bet
    Comment
    • Hugo de Naranja
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 04-14-16
      • 14140

      #37
      Originally posted by turbozed
      Not worried about the size difference or Prazares' age?
      Nope. I think that’s why we’re getting a good price. Size is a super overrated factor for betting a fight imo. Prazeres has showed a lot of skill in the UFC and has some big wins over guys like Mairbek Taisumov and Gilbert Burns. I’m confident he can get the win despite being the smaller man (like he was in height and reach in every LW matchup).
      Comment
      • Hugo de Naranja
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 04-14-16
        • 14140

        #38
        It’s like when Lineker moved up to Bantamweight (where he is 6-1 in the UFC with his only loss being to the current champion). When he fought guys like Rivera, Font, and McDonald, people talked about those guys using their huge height and reach advantages to outstrike him at range but that didn’t happen in any of those matchups. Size doesn’t matter if a fighter is effective at implementing their game, something Lineker and Prazeres have both done countless times against bigger opponents.
        Comment
        • Rich Benjamins
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 12-15-15
          • 831

          #39
          Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
          Nope. I think that’s why we’re getting a good price. Size is a super overrated factor for betting a fight imo. Prazeres has showed a lot of skill in the UFC and has some big wins over guys like Mairbek Taisumov and Gilbert Burns. I’m confident he can get the win despite being the smaller man (like he was in height and reach in every LW matchup).
          I like the pick. Cummings is no slouch, but Prazeres is a very special fighter.
          Comment
          • Teem
            SBR Sharp
            • 04-11-17
            • 343

            #40
            ^ I'm sold on Prazeres now
            Comment
            • SmellMyFinger
              SBR High Roller
              • 04-15-18
              • 117

              #41
              good luck prazeres backers, i only have 1 wager on cummings so i won't be too salty if you guys are right, i do like prazeres as a fighter just feel like he has to prove he can win fights at ww when he dose not have the strength advantage he had over most of his opponents at lw
              Comment
              • Teem
                SBR Sharp
                • 04-11-17
                • 343

                #42
                Likin Benitez by sub. And I'm wanting to pick Pantoja but idk if he can stop Moreno's take downs.
                Comment
                • Shagdogy
                  SBR MVP
                  • 06-16-10
                  • 3564

                  #43
                  Originally posted by Teem
                  Likin Benitez by sub. And I'm wanting to pick Pantoja but idk if he can stop Moreno's take downs.
                  Benitez has a very solid guillotine and I think he will force Bandenay to shoot when he gets a taste of Benitez’s striking. Can def see a sub happening.
                  Comment
                  • Shagdogy
                    SBR MVP
                    • 06-16-10
                    • 3564

                    #44
                    Bet Botelho at -165 and now it’s -145. I think I’m disrespecting Kondo a bit here, but I really feel her pressure can cost her as it should bring out the big, heavy counters of Botelho.
                    Comment
                    • turbozed
                      SBR MVP
                      • 10-15-08
                      • 2435

                      #45
                      Originally posted by Shagdogy
                      Bet Botelho at -165 and now it’s -145. I think I’m disrespecting Kondo a bit here, but I really feel her pressure can cost her as it should bring out the big, heavy counters of Botelho.
                      I laid off on this one despite capping it. Think the line is about right where it is. Botelho has a higher athletic ceiling but I can't gauge where she's at now with her striking. Her low volume and low hands are a problem but that might be a factor of being afraid of the takedowns against Pearl.

                      Should be a banger of a fight though if they both come looking to strike.
                      Comment
                      • Shagdogy
                        SBR MVP
                        • 06-16-10
                        • 3564

                        #46
                        Originally posted by turbozed
                        I laid off on this one despite capping it. Think the line is about right where it is. Botelho has a higher athletic ceiling but I can't gauge where she's at now with her striking. Her low volume and low hands are a problem but that might be a factor of being afraid of the takedowns against Pearl.

                        Should be a banger of a fight though if they both come looking to strike.
                        Yeah I’m hoping the pressure of Kondo will bring out the best in Botelho. If she doesn’t have big moments early, I worry a little about her gas. Kondo never stops moving forward. We’ll see. Eye test just makes Botelho look a bit more of a fighter.
                        Comment
                        • Shagdogy
                          SBR MVP
                          • 06-16-10
                          • 3564

                          #47
                          Turbo, you have anything you really like?

                          I have Benitez in a couple parlays. I like him at the price. Silva should be a good parlay piece as well I think.
                          Comment
                          • Shagdogy
                            SBR MVP
                            • 06-16-10
                            • 3564

                            #48
                            Barzola -190, win 1u
                            Botelho -165, win1u
                            Prazeres +145, win 1u
                            Benitez + Silva Parlay -113, win 1.25u
                            Benitez + Reyes parlay +120, risk 1u
                            Pantoja + Benitez u2.5 parlay +243, win 1.5u

                            May add some more. Been busy out of town with a family wedding. If anyone sees any obvious value I’m missing tip me off. My mind has been elsewhere for this one.
                            Comment
                            • turbozed
                              SBR MVP
                              • 10-15-08
                              • 2435

                              #49
                              Originally posted by Shagdogy
                              Turbo, you have anything you really like?

                              I have Benitez in a couple parlays. I like him at the price. Silva should be a good parlay piece as well I think.
                              I didn't really cap this card as much due to a lot of travelling (in Mexico last week and LA this week). Took a look at Botelho/Kondo and Reyes/Cannonier and wasn't able to pull trigger on the dogs in either.

                              I do have a double with Usman + Luque double when both were a bit cheaper and it paid out about even.

                              Was going to bet Cummings earlier but you guys made me swerve off of it.
                              Comment
                              • Shagdogy
                                SBR MVP
                                • 06-16-10
                                • 3564

                                #50
                                Originally posted by turbozed
                                I didn't really cap this card as much due to a lot of travelling (in Mexico last week and LA this week). Took a look at Botelho/Kondo and Reyes/Cannonier and wasn't able to pull trigger on the dogs in either.

                                I do have a double with Usman + Luque double when both were a bit cheaper and it paid out about even.

                                Was going to bet Cummings earlier but you guys made me swerve off of it.
                                I have that fight pretty much dead even. A few unknowns so +145 just to win 1u wasn’t too much risk.
                                Comment
                                • JIBBBY
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 12-10-09
                                  • 83686

                                  #51
                                  Well this is how I'm playing it fellas.. Found myself hedging a bit again with this event.. See what sticks???

                                  Most bets $100 as usual, some hedges for $50.. No load up plays on this card.. Just trying to grind out another win here..

                                  Good luck everyone, let's make that money!!!

                                  1) Silva KO and RND 1 finish prop
                                  2) Saenz Straight
                                  3) Barzola by Dec
                                  4) Benitez by Dec/ hedged Humberto sub
                                  5) Kondo by Dec/hedged Botelho KO
                                  6) Patoja Dec/hedged Moreno sub
                                  7) Prazeres by Dec
                                  8) Luque ITD/hedged Laprise Straight
                                  9) Macedo Dec/hedged Lee sub
                                  10) Rivas by sub/hedge Cannnetti ITD
                                  11) Reyes ITD/hedge Cannonier KO
                                  12) Saurez by Sub/hedged Grasso straight
                                  13) Maia Sub/hedged Usman by Dec
                                  Comment
                                  • Hugo de Naranja
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 04-14-16
                                    • 14140

                                    #52
                                    Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                    Well this is how I'm playing it fellas.. Found myself hedging a bit again with this event.. See what sticks???

                                    Most bets $100 as usual, some hedges for $50.. No load up plays on this card.. Just trying to grind out another win here..

                                    Good luck everyone, let's make that money!!!

                                    1) Silva KO and RND 1 finish prop
                                    2) Saenz Straight
                                    3) Barzola by Dec
                                    4) Benitez by Dec/ hedged Humberto sub
                                    5) Kondo by Dec/hedged Botelho KO
                                    6) Patoja Dec/hedged Moreno sub
                                    7) Prazeres by Dec
                                    8) Luque ITD/hedged Laprise Straight
                                    9) Macedo Dec/hedged Lee sub
                                    10) Rivas by sub/hedge Cannnetti ITD
                                    11) Reyes ITD/hedge Cannonier KO
                                    12) Saurez by Sub/hedged Grasso straight
                                    13) Maia Sub/hedged Usman by Dec
                                    Best of luck buddy!
                                    Comment
                                    • Sanity Check
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 03-30-13
                                      • 10962

                                      #53
                                      Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                      Benitez has a very solid guillotine and I think he will force Bandenay to shoot when he gets a taste of Benitez’s striking. Can def see a sub happening.
                                      Was Benitez the one who gave up those super easy double legs against Enrique Barzola? Wtf happened to him in that fight?

                                      That was super bizarre how Benitez kept his knees very close together allowing Barzola those easy double legs over and over.

                                      I think Benitez will win. But that Barzola fight was some serious twilight zone !@#%.
                                      Comment
                                      • Hugo de Naranja
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 04-14-16
                                        • 14140

                                        #54
                                        Originally posted by Sanity Check
                                        Was Benitez the one who gave up those super easy double legs against Enrique Barzola? Wtf happened to him in that fight?

                                        That was super bizarre how Benitez kept his knees very close together allowing Barzola those easy double legs over and over.

                                        I think Benitez will win. But that Barzola fight was some serious twilight zone !@#%.
                                        His TDD isn't that great in general but I don't think that will be too big a deal here.
                                        Comment
                                        • Hugo de Naranja
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 04-14-16
                                          • 14140

                                          #55
                                          UFC Fight Night 129: Maia vs. Usman Picks:
                                          Felipe Silva Round 1 TKO (Punches)
                                          Frankie Saenz Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
                                          Enrique Barzola Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
                                          Gabriel Benitez Round 2 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
                                          Poliana Botelho Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
                                          Alexandre Pantoja Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
                                          Michel Prazeres Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
                                          Vicente Luque Round 1 Submission (D’arce Choke)
                                          Andrea Lee Round 3 Submission (Armbar)
                                          Diego Rivas Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
                                          Dominick Reyes Round 1 TKO (Punches)
                                          Tatiana Suarez Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
                                          Kamaru Usman Unanimous Decision (50-45, 49-46 x2)
                                          Comment
                                          • Hugo de Naranja
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 04-14-16
                                            • 14140

                                            #56
                                            UFC Fight Night 129: Maia vs. Usman

                                            Fight Pass Prelims:


                                            Fight #1: Silva vs. Puelles
                                            Silva+Puelles Under 1.5 (+105) 1u
                                            Silva Round 1 (+165) 1u

                                            Fight #2: Saenz vs. Briones
                                            Briones (+275) 1u

                                            Fight #3: Barzola vs. Davis
                                            Barzola Decision (+105) 2u
                                            Barzola Submission (+626) .5u

                                            Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

                                            Fight #4: Benitez vs. Bandenay
                                            Benitez -3.5 (+110) 2u
                                            Benitez Submission (+220) 1u

                                            Fight #5: Botelho vs. Kondo
                                            Botelho KO/TKO (+340) 1u

                                            Fight #6: Pantoja vs. Moreno
                                            Pantoja (-115) 2.3u to win 2u
                                            Pantoja ITD (+305) 1u
                                            Pantoja Submission (+450) .5u

                                            Hedge:
                                            Moreno ITD (+482) .75u

                                            Fight #7: Prazeres vs. Cummings
                                            Prazeres (+125) 4u
                                            Prazeres Decision (+265) 1u
                                            Prazeres Scorecards = No Action (+300) 1u

                                            Main Card:

                                            Fight #8: Luque vs. Laprise
                                            Luque ITD (+110) 2.5u
                                            Luque -3.5 (+120) 1u

                                            Hedge:
                                            Laprise Decision (+350) 1u

                                            Fight #9: Lee (DEBUT) vs. Macedo
                                            Lee Submission (+490) 2u

                                            Hedge:
                                            Macedo Scorecards = No Action (+347) 1u

                                            Fight #10: Rivas vs. Cannetti
                                            Rivas+Cannetti Won’t Go Distance (+100) 2.5u
                                            Rivas Submission (+484) .5u

                                            Hedge:
                                            Cannetti Round 1 (+575) .5u

                                            Fight #11: Reyes vs. Cannonier
                                            Reyes Round 1 (+275) 1u

                                            Hedge:
                                            Cannonier KO/TKO (+700) .5u

                                            Fight #12: Suarez vs. Grasso
                                            Suarez ITD (+200) 1u

                                            Fight #13: Usman vs. Maia
                                            Usman Unanimous Decision (+300) 1u

                                            Hedge(s):
                                            Maia ITD (+686) 1u
                                            Maia Round 1 (+1700) .5u

                                            Straight Parlays:
                                            Rivas/Usman (+107) 1u
                                            Barzola/Lee (+109) 1u
                                            Lee/Reyes (+109) 1u
                                            Silva+Puelles WGD/Barzola+Davis GD (+130) 1.5u
                                            Barzola/Benitez (+145) 1u
                                            Barzola+Davis GD/Prazeres+Cummings GD (+153) 1u
                                            Benitez/Botelho/Pantoja (+372) .5u

                                            Prop Parlays:
                                            Silva KO/Briones -3.5/Barzola -3.5 (+795) .25u
                                            Prazeres/Luque -3.5/Lee -3.5 (+833) .25u

                                            Full Card Props:
                                            Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+167) 1.25u
                                            Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+422) .5u
                                            Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+1188) .25u

                                            Multi-Event Parlays:
                                            None
                                            Comment
                                            • JIBBBY
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 12-10-09
                                              • 83686

                                              #57
                                              ^^ Good luck Hugo, I see we are on opposite sides on a few fights..
                                              Comment
                                              • Teem
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 04-11-17
                                                • 343

                                                #58
                                                I wanna pick Maia by sub so bad haha
                                                Comment
                                                • Teem
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 04-11-17
                                                  • 343

                                                  #59
                                                  Usman - KO/TKO - RD 4
                                                  Suarez - DEC
                                                  Reyes - KO/TKO - RD 1
                                                  Rivas - DEC
                                                  Lee - SUB - RD 3
                                                  Luque - SUB - RD 1
                                                  Prazeres - DEC
                                                  Pantoja - DEC
                                                  Botelho - DEC
                                                  Benitez - SUB - RD 2
                                                  Barzola - DEC
                                                  Saenz - DEC
                                                  Silva - KO/TKO - RD 1
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Shagdogy
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 06-16-10
                                                    • 3564

                                                    #60
                                                    Wow, my book just randomly started accepting props in parlays. Put a small one in just to see if it would take it and it did. This will certainly open up some options if it stays.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Shagdogy
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 06-16-10
                                                      • 3564

                                                      #61
                                                      Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                                      Barzola -190, win 1u
                                                      Botelho -165, win1u
                                                      Prazeres +145, win 1u
                                                      Benitez + Silva Parlay -113, win 1.25u
                                                      Benitez + Reyes parlay +120, risk 1u
                                                      Pantoja + Benitez u2.5 parlay +243, win 1.5u

                                                      May add some more. Been busy out of town with a family wedding. If anyone sees any obvious value I’m missing tip me off. My mind has been elsewhere for this one.
                                                      Added:

                                                      Grasso/Suarez won’t go to decision +175, win 1u
                                                      Cannetti/Rivas won’t go to decision -105, win 1u
                                                      Benitez sub +222, risk 1u
                                                      Rivas sub + Pantoja sub parlay, +3090, risk .25u

                                                      I definitely meant to bet that Benitez sub line to WIN 1u. Damn. More than I wanted on that.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Shagdogy
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 06-16-10
                                                        • 3564

                                                        #62
                                                        Wow. Neither of these guys looking very good at all. Hoping Silva pulls it out. He seems to have the edge.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • turbozed
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 10-15-08
                                                          • 2435

                                                          #63
                                                          That was a 10-8 round there for Silva in that 2nd. Puelles looked good for the first couple minutes then the wheels fell off.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • turbozed
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 10-15-08
                                                            • 2435

                                                            #64
                                                            WOW what an amazing comeback!

                                                            That was Hermansson-esque!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • JC2008
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 02-27-08
                                                              • 2258

                                                              #65
                                                              - The f uck was that... Fight should have been stopped long before the stoppage.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Shagdogy
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 06-16-10
                                                                • 3564

                                                                #66
                                                                You have to be effing kidding me. Uuuuuuugggghhh. Is it gonna be one of those kinds of nights?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Shagdogy
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 06-16-10
                                                                  • 3564

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Starts like that just make me wooooorrried. Wtf.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • boss_of_um
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 08-18-11
                                                                    • 1092

                                                                    #68
                                                                    I am guessing Silva lost? F*ck!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Hugo de Naranja
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 04-14-16
                                                                      • 14140

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Impressive comeback from Puelles. Didn't see that one coming.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • JC2008
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 02-27-08
                                                                        • 2258

                                                                        #70
                                                                        - I have a feeling a lot of dogs are gonna cash tonight...
                                                                        Comment
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