Decent enough for me to bet Torres. Of the spectrum of SWs that Andrade has fought, I think 3 have tried to beat her with a volume striking game. Andrade dominated Hill and Calderwood but JJ beat her pretty soundly. In terms of technical ability, I think Torres is considerably better than Hill and slots in somewhere between JJ and Calderwood, and in my opinion closer to JJ.
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Shelton is similar to Morales in situation. He's much more battle tested than his opponent and he has solid skills. Perez MAY be that good but he hasn't had a chance to show it against competition like Shelton has in the UFC.
The only problem here now is you're betting against the miss weight and win fight streak if you bet on Shelton. Nonetheless I'm on him to win 1u along with all the other doggies, although I got a horrendous line of -110. I'm embarrassed by it.Comment -
Yes Turbo, let's go. The nice thing about betting all these dogs is unless we are just plain wrong across the board, it's hard for the night to go terribly south on us, and with a little luck it could be a real nice night. Let's hope the dogs are hungry.
I've turned my attention now to parlays. I've been having success with 2 way parlays at a little better than even. I added Andrade + Kelleher/Barao o2.5 at +134. Will look for other options too.Comment -
True but Perez not being able to cut a HALF pound says a lot. Remember, he's fought at BW more than FLY recently. I think unlike most cases, he tried to cut as much as he could and he failed which will lead to diminished returns. I wish I could have got that +130. At worse than even money it seems like a tight call but I threw some on Shelton by decision. I don't think he gets subbed here and he's not a big finisher by any stretch so good shot it goes the distance.Comment -
Quick note about Manny Bermudez... he's listed at 5'6" on Sherdog, but he looked much taller in the regional vid I watched. As expected, he was actually one inch taller than Morales at weigh ins and officially 5'10".Comment -
Alright, Moroz's line jumped up to +155 on 5D so I took it for a little less than a unit. I have done little research on this fight but feel comfortable taking the dog at this price. I don't think either fighter is significantly better than other.Comment -
15 units up in the air tomorrow for me as of now. I only wished I put Perry ML in more parlays when it was -260.Comment -
I agree with these points. None of this convinces me that Perry should be a -350 favorite against anyone decent or dangerous in the division. Only processs-driven fighters that fight to win (GSP, Mighty Mouse, etc.) deserve those sort of prices IMO. Perry is the more technical brawler with more power. This means he wins more times than not, but he'd have to win 80%+ to be the +EV pick here.Comment -
He's the more technical brawler with more power and a MUCH MUCH better chin though. I think I posted earlier. I think this fight should be lined around -1000 honestly. I only have around 4 units on him right now so I need to add more but I'm trying to find good parlay spots to avoid having to lay the full price.Comment -
Found another thing I forgot about I liked.
Shelton/Perez FGTD/Perry ML (-108)Comment -
Alright I'm done for the night. I may looking at adding McMann -3.5 tomorrow when it comes out. I feel like she SHOULD dominate this fight. The only risk is the SUB so if I can lay less than -140 on her -3.5, I will probably play it for sure. The OVER 1.5 SUBS for the card at -205 is also interesting to me. I feel like I've capped quite a few spots where I'm exposed to the sub prop hitting and with guys like Yahya on the card, I feel like we get at LEAST 2 subs pretty easily. It'll probably be an open parlay piece if it doesn't get destroyed overnight. I'm running out of things to bet on with this card honestly so I may open up another open couple open parlays with Perry ML on it for a unit apiece.
MY PLAYS below
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Thank you for outing me as a plebian
. My betting unit is $35 until I have a large enough sample size of me being profitable.
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What exactly is Griffin's path to victory? A finish? He's been knocked down a couple of times I get but once was only because Ponzo was hurting him BADLY and he finally dropped him in the 3rd. Ponzo is one of the best strikers in the division. Griffin has power but does he have the same amount that guys like Ponzo do? I think Griffin's path is about a 10% shot at best to get the TKO and realistically 0% to win a decision. If that NOT Griffin by DEC gets below -1000, its going in some parlaysComment -
I got more on that Stephens opener I believe... dont worry Richard my betting unit isn't much more than that and I'm not betting a ton of units by ANY means. I plan on using the Betmma.tips site to track my plays for at least 8-9 months. If I feel as confident now as I do then, I'll probably invest 5 figures or so and start playing for real.Comment -
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Big on DK this week as well with these 2 lineup
Perry
Andrade
Stephens
Hill
Shelton
Doane
and (more of a GPP lineup)
Perry
Jouban
Stephens
Hill
Shelton
AlveyComment -
Andrade down to -250 at my local book so added on another unit at that price.Comment -
My parlays so far...
Andrade + Barao/Kell o2.5, +135
Andrade+McMann+Hill/Moroz o2.5, +160
Shelton+Stephens/Emmett o3.5, +300
I've got 6 dogs and all these parlays all at plus money and I've barely risked 6 units this card. Strange bet sheet for me. Will prob just keep sprinkling plus money bets all around this card. Seems like the thing to do tonight.Comment -
Apparently Yahya's mom died about 10 days ago. Had to go back and attend a funeral. Says it's going to motivate him. Some people do respond well to these things, but I think it has to be a big weight on the mind for most.
Anyway, feel bad for Yahya who is by all accounts a good dude.Comment -
Early start time today fellas.. UFC shows it starting at 1:15 Pacific Time...Comment -
Yep sucks I'll miss most of the fights
Added 0.25 units on hill by tko as a hedge. Think moroz chin is a little suspect and hill could land a barrage on her potentially (10% chance or so)Comment -
Looks like I likely won't be watching this one live either. Family stuff going on. I'll post bets then check out and see how I did when it's all over. Sometimes it's fun that way. One thing's for sure, I won't be chasing since I'll be in the dark completely.
Won't be posting live here during event, so good luck everyone. I'll post plays when I finalize em.Comment -
Remember when Jeremy Stephens was "who da fook is dat guy"?
I like how things have changed.
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great insight, thank you. I'll be putting some on Alvey. I like the ML and agree with your assessment on his opponent but it makes for value on Alvey +215. Alvey trains and sometimes cornered by Henderson who has moved around from MW to LHW so I'm leaning towards he will be prepare for fighting at LHW. Alvey has amazing TDD but doesn't try TDs so I think the grappling will even each other out. Alvey caught Spicely with a guillotine and I can see Karate guy not keeping his head close during a clinch so sub is on table.
However, this fight is fight pass which doesn't make sense if you think Alvey gets a highlight reel KO why have this fight so early? Probably because the fear is it turns out like Theadoreu vs Alvey where karate guy runs around with leg kicks and throws these bombs that rarely connect and the fight ends in 15 minutes of frustration with little volume. I will take +215 odds that this doesn't happen, and that you're right, Alvey finds his head and lands a bomb. But I can see sub and Alvey close dec w on the table so I'm taking MLComment -
Main card write ups MMA mania....
UFC on FOX 28 predictions, preview, and analysis
12 comments
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Bruce Fedyck-USA TODAY Sports
145 lbs.: Josh Emmett (13-1) vs. Jeremy “Lil’ Heathen” Stephens (27-14)
Nostradumbass predicts: Jeremy Stephens has been fighting for UFC for over a decade and during that span, he’s never been able to win more than three fights in a row, a feat he accomplished just once roughly four years back.
Right after he lost three straight.
That’s why I’m not going crazy over his consecutive victories over Gilbert Melendez and Doo Ho Choi, or attributing said victories to time served under Eric Del Fierro at Alliance MMA, as this is familiar territory for “Lil’ Heathen.”
With that in mind, his No. 7 ranking feels about right.
You would think that having 25-plus fights in UFC would leave Stephens more well rounded and for the most part, he’s a complete fighter. His wrestling is solid and he can throw more technical strikes than his highlight reel will attest. Submissions? Well, two outta three ain’t bad.
His real issue is getting tagged, becoming angry, and turning his fights into street brawls.
That will work in favor of Josh Emmett, who is the toast of the 145-pound town after toe-tagging former division title contender Ricardo Lamas back in December. That was good enough for the No. 4 spot in the top 10, even if his previous body of work does not support such a rapid promotion.
His last four contests went to the scorecards, including a UFC 210 loss to Desmond Green, and I’m not breaking out the party hats for decision wins over Felipe Arantes, Scott Holtzman, or Jon Tuck, the latter of which was a split.
Why? Because none of them are ranked in the top 15.
There’s a lot to like about Emmett, who effortlessly blends top-shelf wrestling with powerful strikes. But his defense is a work-in-progress — and that’s a generous assessment — and he’s way too susceptible to leg kicks, something Stephens used to successfully turn away Gilbert Melendez.
Emmett might be the cat’s meow after punishing “The Bully,” but he’s not going to present anything Stephens hasn’t already seen — or conquered — in his storied UFC career.
Final prediction: Stephens def. Emmett by unanimous decision
115 lbs.: Tecia “Tiny Tornado” Torres (10-1) vs. Jessica “Bate Estaca” Andrade (17-6)
Nostradumbass predicts: Tecia Torres, who cut her teeth under the Invicta FC banner before entering the 115-pound field on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 20, is the total package. Aside from graduating from college with a double major in Criminal Justice and Sociology, the “Tiny Tornado” is a former world kickboxing champion and Taekwondo black belt.
And she's certainly easy on the eyes.
Inside the cage, Torres can pretty much do it all, which is why she’s 10-1 and the winner of three straight. Working against her is nine decisions in 10 wins, and while winning is the most crucial aspect of any combat sports career, sometimes how you win can be just as important.
Torres will not win a decision against Jessica Andrade.
While she may have the physical tools to match the Brazilian inside the gym, so did fellow strawweight specimen Claudia Gadelha, and “Bate Estaca” ran through her like the Blues Brothers ran through the Dixie Square Mall.
I’ve seen “Claudinha” outstruck, but I’ve never seen her manhandled like that before.
That does not leave me feeling overly optimistic for UFC Orlando. Torres may be the more technical striker and former champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk did lay the blueprint for how to stymie the Brazilian, but Torres does not have the footwork or scrambling ability of the once-beaten Pole.
Facing an opponent who’s landed 10 takedowns across her past four fights, her only chance is volume.
Andrade has mastered the art of blocking punches with her face, but for every knuckle sandwich devoured inside the cage, she regurgitates two of her own. A relentless stalker with terrifying aggression, I find it hard to imagine a scenario in which Torres can escape the former bantamweight’s devastating blitzkrieg.
Final prediction: Andrade def. Torres by unanimous decision
205 lbs.: Ilir “The Sledgehammer” Latifi (13-5, 1 NC) vs. Ovince “OSP” Saint Preux (22-10)
Nostradumbass predicts: I’ve often wondered if Ilir Latifi would be competing in UFC had he not been able to play the role of “warm body” for Gegard Mousasi at UFC on Fuel TV 9, thanks to a last-minute cut that felled original headliner Alexander Gustafsson.
If not, the promotion would have missed a valuable addition to its light heavyweight division, as “The Sledgehammer’ has since compiled an above-average record of 6-3 with four violent finishes. He’s probably not going to dazzle you with his technical ability, but if that right hand lands ... forget the stretcher, bring a sponge.
That makes Latifi dangerous in any contest, including this one, and opponent Ovince Saint Preux can’t afford to be sloppy in his defense. In addition to the power punch, “OSP” must be weary of the Swede’s powerful double-leg takedowns.
Saint Preux was grounded four times in last November’s win over Corey Anderson.
Latifi is a gamer and dangerous for all three rounds, but from a technical standpoint, he’s grotesquely outmatched. Saint Preux holds a seven-inch reach advantage and stands five inches taller, affording him the ability to strike at range without getting to close to the go-for-broke counterpunch.
In addition, Saint Preux has one of the sneakiest submission games in the division.
Unless “OSP” abandons all logic and turns this into a phone booth fight, there is no reason he shouldn’t be able to dominate this contest wherever it goes. He’s larger, more athletic, and better skilled in every discipline. From my perspective, this is his fight to lose.
Final prediction: Saint Preux def. Latifi by submission
170 lbs.: Max “Pain” Griffin (13-4) vs. “Platinum” Mike Perry (11-2)
Nostradumbass predicts: Max Griffin made his debut back in August 2016 after compiling an impressive 12-2 record on the regional circuit, with eight of his victories coming by way of knockout or submission. Unfortunately, that success got him thrown into the deep end of the welterweight pool and “Pain” was promptly drowned by Colby Covington at UFC 202.
He followed that up by stopping the since-deposed Erick Montano, but failed to capitalize on that win with a disappointing decision loss to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos at UFC Fight Night 119 last October. It should be noted that Griffin works a 9-5 job and at age 32, we may have seen the best version of the former TUF 16 hopeful.
Sorry, but his black belt in Bok Fu may as well be a black belt in Bok Choy, because opponents don’t stand still and let you hit them inside the Octagon.
That doesn’t bode well in a fight against Mike Perry, who on the surface fights like an unrefined bar brawler but in reality brings a skilled striking arsenal to each and every attack. He doesn’t land those bombs because he’s lucky (lightning doesn’t strike that often for any power puncher), but rather because he understands how to set up his punches, get inside, and unleash hell.
Perry is hittable — still forgivable while his chin remains solid — and has shown in previous losses to both Alan Jouban and Santiago Ponzinibbio that he can be frustrated by busier fighters capable of giving as good as they get. While Griffin enters this contest with a five-inch reach advantage, his defense leaves a lot to be desired.
Remember when the jab used to be a thing?
You don’t get many second chances against the power of “Platinum,” who ended all 11 of his wins by knockout. That’s a staggering statistic, even when considering the level of competition he’s faced, and I haven’t seen anything from Griffin to convince me he’s not going to be lucky number 12.
Final prediction: Perry def. Griffin by knockoutComment
