UFC 221: Rockhold vs. Romero (February 10, 2018)
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Richard ClockSBR Sharp
- 02-09-18
- 394
#246Comment -
ShagdogySBR MVP
- 06-16-10
- 3564
#247I understand Yoel hasn't been at ATT for this abbreviated camp. Just doing his own training. I trust Rockhold to bounce back from the cut and have the better energy of the two. I think if Yoel slows down in round 2 and Rockhold can get a TD he is in for a terrible time on the mat.
Rockhold looked extremely lean but he didn't look like death. Look at Rob Wilkinson by comparison. That's a guy whose cut killed him.Comment -
TPowellSBR Posting Legend
- 02-21-08
- 18842
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TPowellSBR Posting Legend
- 02-21-08
- 18842
#249Comment -
HurlSweatPantsSBR Wise Guy
- 07-28-15
- 951
#251
They are not high on Volkanovski as I would've thought, the jist I got is to stay away from the juice (also not that high on Israel for the price).Comment -
KingHawkinsSBR MVP
- 04-18-13
- 1311
#252I'm thinking about a play on Quinones the more I think about it. Ishihara's cardio was SO bad at 145 and now he's dropping to 135? I said earlier I didn't think he'd make the weight but he did. Now though, he has less than 24 hours to recover (less than normal) against a grinder and a guy that has steadily improved. Line is down in that -150 wasteland where you don't have to tease but you do have to give up a lot of juice.
Quinonez I think going to be a 4-figure wager for me. I really think he gets the W here. My horrible book has it -170 now, but I am ready to fire on any price break I can get.
Was on Abe for $1K at -140, but I have been worried about it for a day or two now, and just ate $87 to cash it out for $913. Feel bad about it, and I have Volk. for $1,200 at -180 I am thinking of hedging all the way out of. Then I have Jingliang for over $1K, at -200 (whoops)... and I am not really feeling all too confident there either. And can't hedge, or buy out of that one, without eating a few hundred... decisions.... but Quinonez, and Pearson, seeming like smart wagers to me now as we are a few hours away..... man... what to do, what to do.Comment -
TPowellSBR Posting Legend
- 02-21-08
- 18842
#253Those guys are wishy washy to me. Their info on tendencies is pretty solid but they are just too conservative as far as favorites go IMO. I listened to first 5 minutes to see if it told where Nick was now but that was it.Comment -
JIBBBYSBR Aristocracy
- 12-10-09
- 83686
#254I think this is the best bet on the entire card.. Blaydes probably grounds Hunt and Hunt has always been a fish out of water on the ground and against strong wrestlers if he can't knock them out early on.. Blaydes can take a big shot, granite chin also..
UFC 221 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - Perth Arena - Perth, Australia - PPV Sat 2/10 1101 Mark Hunt +150 o1½ -215 11:30PM 1102 Curtis Blaydes -170 u1½ +178
These props might even be worth taking a look at.. Blaydes isn't a big finisher but if Hunt is grounded and starts getting beat up the refs may stop it.. Hunt is old, gets tired easily and we just don't know how much punishment he can take these days off his back..
1104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -125 1109 Blaydes wins inside distance +233 Last edited by JIBBBY; 02-10-18, 12:57 PM.Comment -
HurlSweatPantsSBR Wise Guy
- 07-28-15
- 951
#255Yeah and it doesn't flow very well, I could be wrong but it sounds like they are just putting separate audio clips together as opposed to doing a "normal' podcast. Yeah I listened all the way through and I still didn't hear where Nick was at, but 5d put the lines out yesterday so I am a happy camper.Comment -
HurlSweatPantsSBR Wise Guy
- 07-28-15
- 951
#256I think this is the best bet on the entire card.. Blaydes probably grounds Hunt and Hunt has always been a fish out of water on the ground and against strong wrestlers if he can't knock them out early on..
UFC 221 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - Perth Arena - Perth, Australia - PPV Sat 2/10 1101 Mark Hunt +150 o1½ -215 11:30PM 1102 Curtis Blaydes -170 u1½ +178
These props might even be worth taking a look at.. Blaydes isn't a big finisher but if Hunt is grounded and starts getting beat up the refs may stop it.. Hunt is old, gets tired easily and we just don't know how much punishment he can take these days off his back..
1104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -125 1109 Blaydes wins inside distance +233 Comment -
TPowellSBR Posting Legend
- 02-21-08
- 18842
#257I'm not sure whether Blaydes finishes ITD or not but I think he certainly grounds Hunt a lot and wins a decision. I have a ton of faith in Blaydes chin to hold up here so I'm just worried about the decision going the wrong way somehow. He's always hunting TD's even when he's failing miserably but that is a GOOD thing here. I have the ML parlayed at -160Comment -
TPowellSBR Posting Legend
- 02-21-08
- 18842
#258Played Quinonez +1475 in R3 but going to pass on Jingliang in R3. Matthews cardio isn't bad even when he's engaging in these ultra taxing clinch wars with guys. He may get finished but no reason to think it'll be cardio related.Comment -
JIBBBYSBR Aristocracy
- 12-10-09
- 83686
#259I'm not sure whether Blaydes finishes ITD or not but I think he certainly grounds Hunt a lot and wins a decision. I have a ton of faith in Blaydes chin to hold up here so I'm just worried about the decision going the wrong way somehow. He's always hunting TD's even when he's failing miserably but that is a GOOD thing here. I have the ML parlayed at -160
He really only has success against stand up fighters lately and not against wrestlers like Blayeds.
Mark Hunt could be just showing up for a pay check now turning age 44 in one month... Looking for an early exit...He doesn't even seem to look like he trains much these days..
1104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -125 Comment -
TPowellSBR Posting Legend
- 02-21-08
- 18842
#260Mark Hunts fights have not been going to decision lately.. These numbers don't lie.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mark-Hunt-10668
He really only has success against stand up fighters lately and not against wrestlers like Blayeds.
Mark Hunt could be just showing up for a pay check now turning age 44 in one month... Looking for an early exit...
1104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -125 Comment -
ken10SBR High Roller
- 10-11-11
- 188
#261The best value on this card is Jussier Formiga at -130. Sure, Ben Nguyen may be improved, but Formiga is on another level grappling. Watch his fight with Dustin Ortiz. Ortiz is a physically strong dude with great TDD. Nguyen's impressive victory over Tim Elliot was more of Elliot being an awkward fighter who leaves himself open. Formiga will be much tighter in terms of his defense. Take Formiga and the "Fight Does Not Go Distance" at +100. This one doesn't lose.
Formiga -130
Fight Does Not Go Distance +100Comment -
JIBBBYSBR Aristocracy
- 12-10-09
- 83686
#262What's with the shades from Luke? Don't hit a man with glasses on at weigh ins maybe?..
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HurlSweatPantsSBR Wise Guy
- 07-28-15
- 951
#263I know there was early discussion, but does anyone have an angle on Asker.
Tuivasa is clearly the more skilled fighter and better striker, I worry about Tuivasa his shit gas tank. I like him to win by KO in the first, but if the can't finish early I think this fight could get really interesting.Comment -
TPowellSBR Posting Legend
- 02-21-08
- 18842
#264Alright, I'm finished with my card for now
UFC 221, Perth, Australia, 10th Feb '18Straight Pick Opponent Odds Unit Bet Cyril Asker Tai Tuivasa +230 0.5 Jose Quinonez Teruto Ishihara -150 1 Daichi Abe Luke Jumeau -145 1.5
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TPowellSBR Posting Legend
- 02-21-08
- 18842
#265I know there was early discussion, but does anyone have an angle on Asker.
Tuivasa is clearly the more skilled fighter and better striker, I worry about Tuivasa his shit gas tank. I like him to win by KO in the first, but if the can't finish early I think this fight could get really interesting.
Yep Asker can push the pace as well. Tai has to finish in R1 to win this IMO. The only issue is Asker gets hit a lot because he's pushing the pace. I played Asker small on the ML and in R2 as well. Tai does a lot of dumb things like sacrifice throws that UFC level fighters shouldn't be doing IMOComment -
Thor4140SBR Posting Legend
- 02-09-08
- 22296
#266i think im gonna take a shot at Tim Tuivasa. Im not to happy about giving up all that size but this kid has some slick hands and some nice confidence. ot to thrilled to be giving up those odds either but this looks like a quick fight and the quick fight goes to the guy with the hands. O/U a little bit of a stretch tho.Comment -
Richard ClockSBR Sharp
- 02-09-18
- 394
#267I guess I am the only one on Hunt here. 5D has him available at +155 so I threw a unit on him. I think that is just about a good enough price to take a shot on Hunt and it looks to be the best price available industry-wide.
I think Hunt's schooling of D. Lewis was a significant win and a good indication that he isn't quite yet cooked. Lewis may not stylistically be similar to Blaydes, but I view them in the same regard in terms of the HW ranks. Hunt has pretty much beaten every fighter he has faced in the UFC that is not a top 5-10ish guy (Werdum, Overeem, Stipe) and has some solid wins over Lewis, Nelson, Struve, Rothwell. Blaydes has never faced someone as technically sound and successful at a high level of MMA (besides maybe Ngannou), and Hunt's grappling has significantly improved.Comment -
Richard ClockSBR Sharp
- 02-09-18
- 394
#268Yep Asker can push the pace as well. Tai has to finish in R1 to win this IMO. The only issue is Asker gets hit a lot because he's pushing the pace. I played Asker small on the ML and in R2 as well. Tai does a lot of dumb things like sacrifice throws that UFC level fighters shouldn't be doing IMOLast edited by Richard Clock; 02-10-18, 01:51 PM.Comment -
ShagdogySBR MVP
- 06-16-10
- 3564
#269I know there was early discussion, but does anyone have an angle on Asker.
Tuivasa is clearly the more skilled fighter and better striker, I worry about Tuivasa his shit gas tank. I like him to win by KO in the first, but if the can't finish early I think this fight could get really interesting.Comment -
TPowellSBR Posting Legend
- 02-21-08
- 18842
#270A smart man would wait and bet Asker live but I'm greedy plus +1000 in R2 is awful good value IMOComment -
JIBBBYSBR Aristocracy
- 12-10-09
- 83686
#271Not seeing alot of hedging angles with this event.. Playing this event straight up.. Hope it doesn't bite me in the arse!!!
My picks... GL everyone!!!
1)Abe Straight
2)Quinonoz by Dec
3)Hirota Straight and by Dec
4)Jussier Straight and by Sub
5)Volkanovski Straight
6)Israel by KO and Rnd 1 finish
7) Demian Brown Straight
8)Pedro/Safarov U1.5/ Pedro ITD
9)Jake Mathews Straight
10)Tuivas by KO/Rnd 1 finish
11) Curtis Blaydes all in Straight/ Blayeds ITD also
12) Luke by SUB/ Hedge Romero RND 1 finishComment -
Richard ClockSBR Sharp
- 02-09-18
- 394
#272One more fight I have looked a bit at was Leech/Matthews. I lean on the side of the underdog, mainly because we don't know just how good Leech is, considering his recent opponents/wins: Ottow (2-2 with 2 split decision wins in UFC), Camacho (1-2 in the UFC, with 1 split decision win, starts breathing through his mouth by round 2), Bobby Nash (0-3 in the UFC, all by TKO/KO), Zafir (0-2 in UFC and cut). Matthews is still only 23 with 14 career fights, has been tested in competitive fights versus decent opponents Johnny Case, Holbrook (a fight he probably should have won), and most recently Velickovic. I tend to think moving up to 170 will be a push, or even good for him physically, as that cut was death for him. I think people are down on Matthews because of his lackluster win last fight, however keep in mind that A) he still won, B) it was first fight in a new weight class and C) it was his first fight in a year after hip surgery. The lingering effects of the surgery are a little worrisome, admittedly. I will point out one misnomer about Matthews is his cardio being bad. I actually think his cardio, at least in recent fights, has shown to be solid, especially considering the amount of weight he cuts and muscle he carries. He has two 3rd-round submission victories in the UFC and was able to score on takedowns in the third round of his last 2 fights in what were very grueling, grappling-intensive fights.
The odds sit at +145 for Matthews, and this is another line like Asker's which currently has somewhat decent value, but is worth waiting on in case the odds move toward increasing underdog odds.Comment -
HurlSweatPantsSBR Wise Guy
- 07-28-15
- 951
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JIBBBYSBR Aristocracy
- 12-10-09
- 83686
#274Gotta lean on the local boys against the Asians I think especially when they are slight dogs.. Demain Brown and Jake Mathews.. Ruff ruff... Asian fade in play here fellas..
UFC 221 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Perth Arena - Perth, Australia - PPV Sat 2/10 1301 Jake Matthews +140 o2½ -170 10:30PM 1302 Li Jingliang -160 u2½ +150 UFC 221 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Perth Arena - Perth, Australia - FS1 Sat 2/10 1501 Dong Hyun Kim -130 o2½ -180 9:30PM 1502 Damien Brown +110 u2½ +158 Comment -
Bad TattooSBR Wise Guy
- 11-12-13
- 714
#275want to say Rockhold...good fighter but he looked pretty casual in his last fight.Comment -
JIBBBYSBR Aristocracy
- 12-10-09
- 83686
#276
Bit of a tricky fight to bet on.. I had to hedge it.
Luke doesn't fight with his hands up.. That's why he's been knocked out in fights.. Luke has pretty good head movement but he is still hittable with those hands down..
Last edited by JIBBBY; 02-10-18, 03:01 PM.Comment -
JIBBBYSBR Aristocracy
- 12-10-09
- 83686
#277Romero did miss weight also.. Not sure how that plays into this fight now?http://www.news.com.au/sport/ufc/yoe...df80ccc5ecf643Comment -
BIGDAYSBR Aristocracy
- 02-17-10
- 48245
#278Look for the Wraslters to rule this event.Comment -
BIGDAYSBR Aristocracy
- 02-17-10
- 48245
#279I do think Blaydes gets caught however..
Tonight’s Card!
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