UFC 221: Rockhold vs. Romero (February 10, 2018)

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  • Richard Clock
    SBR Sharp
    • 02-09-18
    • 394

    #246
    Originally posted by TPowell
    No way I'm playing that Romero fight. I'm betting Romero did try to cut in the extra 2 hours and he literally could only cut less than half a pound. That means he was more than likely dried out to start with. On the other hand, Luke looked bad as well and has talked of going to 205. Luke has always been huge for 185 so it makes sense cutting down is getting harder and harder. To top it off, no early weighins so less time to get hydrated and back to normal
    Right, so if the matchup is very close and the weight cut has been hellish for both, wouldn't Yoel inherently have value as the dog at +155?
    Comment
    • Shagdogy
      SBR MVP
      • 06-16-10
      • 3564

      #247
      I understand Yoel hasn't been at ATT for this abbreviated camp. Just doing his own training. I trust Rockhold to bounce back from the cut and have the better energy of the two. I think if Yoel slows down in round 2 and Rockhold can get a TD he is in for a terrible time on the mat.

      Rockhold looked extremely lean but he didn't look like death. Look at Rob Wilkinson by comparison. That's a guy whose cut killed him.
      Comment
      • TPowell
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-21-08
        • 18842

        #248
        Originally posted by Richard Clock
        Right, so if the matchup is very close and the weight cut has been hellish for both, wouldn't Yoel inherently have value as the dog at +155?

        Yes but Romero is the much older man which is worrisome. Playing Luke in toutmaster and dk but that's it
        Comment
        • TPowell
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 02-21-08
          • 18842

          #249
          Romero possibly hurt before the fight?

          Comment
          • HurlSweatPants
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 07-28-15
            • 951

            #250
            Originally posted by JIBBBY
            I'm liking Blaydes also in the match up.. Hunt is a hundred years old.. Blaydes even probably finishes him..
            already down to -105
            Comment
            • HurlSweatPants
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 07-28-15
              • 951

              #251
              Originally posted by TPowell
              I'm not sure. May listen to The Premium Oddscast on MMA Oddsbreaker later. He's on that podcast so hopefully he mentions it
              Did you listen to the whole podcast?

              They are not high on Volkanovski as I would've thought, the jist I got is to stay away from the juice (also not that high on Israel for the price).
              Comment
              • KingHawkins
                SBR MVP
                • 04-18-13
                • 1311

                #252
                Originally posted by TPowell
                I'm thinking about a play on Quinones the more I think about it. Ishihara's cardio was SO bad at 145 and now he's dropping to 135? I said earlier I didn't think he'd make the weight but he did. Now though, he has less than 24 hours to recover (less than normal) against a grinder and a guy that has steadily improved. Line is down in that -150 wasteland where you don't have to tease but you do have to give up a lot of juice.

                Quinonez I think going to be a 4-figure wager for me. I really think he gets the W here. My horrible book has it -170 now, but I am ready to fire on any price break I can get.

                Was on Abe for $1K at -140, but I have been worried about it for a day or two now, and just ate $87 to cash it out for $913. Feel bad about it, and I have Volk. for $1,200 at -180 I am thinking of hedging all the way out of. Then I have Jingliang for over $1K, at -200 (whoops)... and I am not really feeling all too confident there either. And can't hedge, or buy out of that one, without eating a few hundred... decisions.... but Quinonez, and Pearson, seeming like smart wagers to me now as we are a few hours away..... man... what to do, what to do.
                Comment
                • TPowell
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 02-21-08
                  • 18842

                  #253
                  Originally posted by HurlSweatPants
                  Did you listen to the whole podcast?

                  They are not high on Volkanovski as I would've thought, the jist I got is to stay away from the juice (also not that high on Israel for the price).
                  Those guys are wishy washy to me. Their info on tendencies is pretty solid but they are just too conservative as far as favorites go IMO. I listened to first 5 minutes to see if it told where Nick was now but that was it.
                  Comment
                  • JIBBBY
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 12-10-09
                    • 83686

                    #254
                    Originally posted by HurlSweatPants
                    already down to -105
                    I think this is the best bet on the entire card.. Blaydes probably grounds Hunt and Hunt has always been a fish out of water on the ground and against strong wrestlers if he can't knock them out early on.. Blaydes can take a big shot, granite chin also..

                    UFC 221 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - Perth Arena - Perth, Australia - PPV
                    Sat 2/10 1101 Mark Hunt +150 o1½ -215
                    11:30PM 1102 Curtis Blaydes -170 u1½ +178

                    These props might even be worth taking a look at.. Blaydes isn't a big finisher but if Hunt is grounded and starts getting beat up the refs may stop it.. Hunt is old, gets tired easily and we just don't know how much punishment he can take these days off his back..

                    1104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -125
                    1109 Blaydes wins inside distance +233
                    Last edited by JIBBBY; 02-10-18, 12:57 PM.
                    Comment
                    • HurlSweatPants
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 07-28-15
                      • 951

                      #255
                      Originally posted by TPowell
                      Those guys are wishy washy to me. Their info on tendencies is pretty solid but they are just too conservative as far as favorites go IMO. I listened to first 5 minutes to see if it told where Nick was now but that was it.
                      Yeah and it doesn't flow very well, I could be wrong but it sounds like they are just putting separate audio clips together as opposed to doing a "normal' podcast. Yeah I listened all the way through and I still didn't hear where Nick was at, but 5d put the lines out yesterday so I am a happy camper.
                      Comment
                      • HurlSweatPants
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 07-28-15
                        • 951

                        #256
                        Originally posted by JIBBBY
                        I think this is the best bet on the entire card.. Blaydes probably grounds Hunt and Hunt has always been a fish out of water on the ground and against strong wrestlers if he can't knock them out early on..

                        UFC 221 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - Perth Arena - Perth, Australia - PPV
                        Sat 2/10 1101 Mark Hunt +150 o1½ -215
                        11:30PM 1102 Curtis Blaydes -170 u1½ +178

                        These props might even be worth taking a look at.. Blaydes isn't a big finisher but if Hunt is grounded and starts getting beat up the refs may stop it.. Hunt is old, gets tired easily and we just don't know how much punishment he can take these days off his back..

                        1104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -125
                        1109 Blaydes wins inside distance +233
                        Lot of value on the Blaydes ITD, I can definitely see what you are saying. The one thing that I noticed about Blaydes from a negative standpoint, and that you touched on, is that he doesn't seem to have the KI to really go for the finish, so I am worried that he just grinds out a decision. Hunt 1st round is also a nice prop bet just in case, but I am just going to stay with the -3.5 and hope that I don't get robbed by the judges.
                        Comment
                        • TPowell
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 02-21-08
                          • 18842

                          #257
                          I'm not sure whether Blaydes finishes ITD or not but I think he certainly grounds Hunt a lot and wins a decision. I have a ton of faith in Blaydes chin to hold up here so I'm just worried about the decision going the wrong way somehow. He's always hunting TD's even when he's failing miserably but that is a GOOD thing here. I have the ML parlayed at -160
                          Comment
                          • TPowell
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 02-21-08
                            • 18842

                            #258
                            Played Quinonez +1475 in R3 but going to pass on Jingliang in R3. Matthews cardio isn't bad even when he's engaging in these ultra taxing clinch wars with guys. He may get finished but no reason to think it'll be cardio related.
                            Comment
                            • JIBBBY
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 12-10-09
                              • 83686

                              #259
                              Originally posted by TPowell
                              I'm not sure whether Blaydes finishes ITD or not but I think he certainly grounds Hunt a lot and wins a decision. I have a ton of faith in Blaydes chin to hold up here so I'm just worried about the decision going the wrong way somehow. He's always hunting TD's even when he's failing miserably but that is a GOOD thing here. I have the ML parlayed at -160
                              Mark Hunts fights have not been going to decision lately.. These numbers don't lie.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mark-Hunt-10668

                              He really only has success against stand up fighters lately and not against wrestlers like Blayeds.

                              Mark Hunt could be just showing up for a pay check now turning age 44 in one month... Looking for an early exit...He doesn't even seem to look like he trains much these days..


                              1104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -125
                              Comment
                              • TPowell
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 02-21-08
                                • 18842

                                #260
                                Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                Mark Hunts fights have not been going to decision lately.. These numbers don't lie.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mark-Hunt-10668

                                He really only has success against stand up fighters lately and not against wrestlers like Blayeds.

                                Mark Hunt could be just showing up for a pay check now turning age 44 in one month... Looking for an early exit...


                                1104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -125
                                I agree with that but Blaydes isn't a great finisher. He had Adam Milstead on the ground for so long with so much strength and ability on him and couldn't finish him until Milstead quit because he tore his ACL. I like the safety of Blaydes ML
                                Comment
                                • ken10
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 10-11-11
                                  • 188

                                  #261
                                  The best value on this card is Jussier Formiga at -130. Sure, Ben Nguyen may be improved, but Formiga is on another level grappling. Watch his fight with Dustin Ortiz. Ortiz is a physically strong dude with great TDD. Nguyen's impressive victory over Tim Elliot was more of Elliot being an awkward fighter who leaves himself open. Formiga will be much tighter in terms of his defense. Take Formiga and the "Fight Does Not Go Distance" at +100. This one doesn't lose.

                                  Formiga -130
                                  Fight Does Not Go Distance +100
                                  Comment
                                  • JIBBBY
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 12-10-09
                                    • 83686

                                    #262
                                    What's with the shades from Luke? Don't hit a man with glasses on at weigh ins maybe? ..

                                    Comment
                                    • HurlSweatPants
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 07-28-15
                                      • 951

                                      #263
                                      I know there was early discussion, but does anyone have an angle on Asker.

                                      Tuivasa is clearly the more skilled fighter and better striker, I worry about Tuivasa his shit gas tank. I like him to win by KO in the first, but if the can't finish early I think this fight could get really interesting.
                                      Comment
                                      • TPowell
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 02-21-08
                                        • 18842

                                        #264
                                        Alright, I'm finished with my card for now

                                        UFC 221, Perth, Australia, 10th Feb '18

                                        Straight Pick Opponent Odds Unit Bet
                                        Cyril Asker Tai Tuivasa +230 0.5
                                        Jose Quinonez Teruto Ishihara -150 1
                                        Daichi Abe Luke Jumeau -145 1.5

                                        Props and Parlays Unit Bet
                                        Fight Pick Odds
                                        PrPi Damien Brown vs Dong Hyun Kim (2) Brown (scorecards = no action) +172
                                        1
                                        Fight Pick Odds
                                        Pr Damien Brown vs Dong Hyun Kim (2) NOT Hyun Kim (2) wins inside distance -271
                                        Pi Mark Hunt vs Curtis Blaydes Blaydes to win -160
                                        Parlay Odds: +122
                                        1
                                        Fight Pick Odds
                                        PrPi Cyril Asker vs Tai Tuivasa Asker wins in round 2 +1,025
                                        0.1
                                        Fight Pick Odds
                                        PrPi Teruto Ishihara vs Jose Quinonez Quinonez wins in round 3 +1,475
                                        0.1
                                        Fight Pick Odds
                                        Pi Tyson Pedro vs Saparbek Safarov Pedro to win -280
                                        PrPi Damien Brown vs Dong Hyun Kim (2) Brown points handicap +3.5 -165
                                        Parlay Odds: +118
                                        0.75
                                        Comment
                                        • TPowell
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 02-21-08
                                          • 18842

                                          #265
                                          Originally posted by HurlSweatPants
                                          I know there was early discussion, but does anyone have an angle on Asker.

                                          Tuivasa is clearly the more skilled fighter and better striker, I worry about Tuivasa his shit gas tank. I like him to win by KO in the first, but if the can't finish early I think this fight could get really interesting.

                                          Yep Asker can push the pace as well. Tai has to finish in R1 to win this IMO. The only issue is Asker gets hit a lot because he's pushing the pace. I played Asker small on the ML and in R2 as well. Tai does a lot of dumb things like sacrifice throws that UFC level fighters shouldn't be doing IMO
                                          Comment
                                          • Thor4140
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 02-09-08
                                            • 22296

                                            #266
                                            i think im gonna take a shot at Tim Tuivasa. Im not to happy about giving up all that size but this kid has some slick hands and some nice confidence. ot to thrilled to be giving up those odds either but this looks like a quick fight and the quick fight goes to the guy with the hands. O/U a little bit of a stretch tho.
                                            Comment
                                            • Richard Clock
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 02-09-18
                                              • 394

                                              #267
                                              I guess I am the only one on Hunt here. 5D has him available at +155 so I threw a unit on him. I think that is just about a good enough price to take a shot on Hunt and it looks to be the best price available industry-wide.

                                              I think Hunt's schooling of D. Lewis was a significant win and a good indication that he isn't quite yet cooked. Lewis may not stylistically be similar to Blaydes, but I view them in the same regard in terms of the HW ranks. Hunt has pretty much beaten every fighter he has faced in the UFC that is not a top 5-10ish guy (Werdum, Overeem, Stipe) and has some solid wins over Lewis, Nelson, Struve, Rothwell. Blaydes has never faced someone as technically sound and successful at a high level of MMA (besides maybe Ngannou), and Hunt's grappling has significantly improved.
                                              Comment
                                              • Richard Clock
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 02-09-18
                                                • 394

                                                #268
                                                Originally posted by TPowell
                                                Yep Asker can push the pace as well. Tai has to finish in R1 to win this IMO. The only issue is Asker gets hit a lot because he's pushing the pace. I played Asker small on the ML and in R2 as well. Tai does a lot of dumb things like sacrifice throws that UFC level fighters shouldn't be doing IMO
                                                From the little I've seen of Tai, he is a flashy striker who gets credit for training with Hunt, but he hasn't even competed against middling level UFC competition yet. His only UFC opponent was Coulter, who had no business in the UFC, and Tai ran through regional-level cans before that. Asker is the dictionary definition of average, but he is well-rounded, doesn't carry a lot of weight and pushes the pace. There are questions of Tai's well-roundedness and cardio. When important questions such as these are still unanswered, I lean toward the side of the significant underdog. I'm hitting myself for not taking Asker ML at +265 yest, but I still think +225 carries some small value. I think as people start to lose money tonight they will chase with Tai and this line will push up towards Asker at +300.
                                                Last edited by Richard Clock; 02-10-18, 01:51 PM.
                                                Comment
                                                • Shagdogy
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 06-16-10
                                                  • 3564

                                                  #269
                                                  Originally posted by HurlSweatPants
                                                  I know there was early discussion, but does anyone have an angle on Asker.

                                                  Tuivasa is clearly the more skilled fighter and better striker, I worry about Tuivasa his shit gas tank. I like him to win by KO in the first, but if the can't finish early I think this fight could get really interesting.
                                                  Tuivasa clearly more skilled? Not on the mat. He's a steamroller and needs to get Asker out of there early and he can likely do it, but if he doesn't he could be in trouble.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • TPowell
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 02-21-08
                                                    • 18842

                                                    #270
                                                    Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                                    Tuivasa clearly more skilled? Not on the mat. He's a steamroller and needs to get Asker out of there early and he can likely do it, but if he doesn't he could be in trouble.
                                                    A smart man would wait and bet Asker live but I'm greedy plus +1000 in R2 is awful good value IMO
                                                    Comment
                                                    • JIBBBY
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 12-10-09
                                                      • 83686

                                                      #271
                                                      Not seeing alot of hedging angles with this event.. Playing this event straight up.. Hope it doesn't bite me in the arse!!!

                                                      My picks... GL everyone!!!

                                                      1)Abe Straight
                                                      2)Quinonoz by Dec
                                                      3)Hirota Straight and by Dec
                                                      4)Jussier Straight and by Sub
                                                      5)Volkanovski Straight
                                                      6)Israel by KO and Rnd 1 finish
                                                      7) Demian Brown Straight
                                                      8)Pedro/Safarov U1.5/ Pedro ITD
                                                      9)Jake Mathews Straight
                                                      10)Tuivas by KO/Rnd 1 finish
                                                      11) Curtis Blaydes all in Straight/ Blayeds ITD also
                                                      12) Luke by SUB/ Hedge Romero RND 1 finish
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Richard Clock
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 02-09-18
                                                        • 394

                                                        #272
                                                        One more fight I have looked a bit at was Leech/Matthews. I lean on the side of the underdog, mainly because we don't know just how good Leech is, considering his recent opponents/wins: Ottow (2-2 with 2 split decision wins in UFC), Camacho (1-2 in the UFC, with 1 split decision win, starts breathing through his mouth by round 2), Bobby Nash (0-3 in the UFC, all by TKO/KO), Zafir (0-2 in UFC and cut). Matthews is still only 23 with 14 career fights, has been tested in competitive fights versus decent opponents Johnny Case, Holbrook (a fight he probably should have won), and most recently Velickovic. I tend to think moving up to 170 will be a push, or even good for him physically, as that cut was death for him. I think people are down on Matthews because of his lackluster win last fight, however keep in mind that A) he still won, B) it was first fight in a new weight class and C) it was his first fight in a year after hip surgery. The lingering effects of the surgery are a little worrisome, admittedly. I will point out one misnomer about Matthews is his cardio being bad. I actually think his cardio, at least in recent fights, has shown to be solid, especially considering the amount of weight he cuts and muscle he carries. He has two 3rd-round submission victories in the UFC and was able to score on takedowns in the third round of his last 2 fights in what were very grueling, grappling-intensive fights.

                                                        The odds sit at +145 for Matthews, and this is another line like Asker's which currently has somewhat decent value, but is worth waiting on in case the odds move toward increasing underdog odds.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • HurlSweatPants
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 07-28-15
                                                          • 951

                                                          #273
                                                          Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                                          Tuivasa clearly more skilled? Not on the mat. He's a steamroller and needs to get Asker out of there early and he can likely do it, but if he doesn't he could be in trouble.
                                                          Maybe I should have went with athletic, or better skilled on the feet.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • JIBBBY
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 12-10-09
                                                            • 83686

                                                            #274
                                                            Gotta lean on the local boys against the Asians I think especially when they are slight dogs.. Demain Brown and Jake Mathews.. Ruff ruff... Asian fade in play here fellas..

                                                            UFC 221 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Perth Arena - Perth, Australia - PPV
                                                            Sat 2/10 1301 Jake Matthews +140 o2½ -170
                                                            10:30PM 1302 Li Jingliang -160 u2½ +150
                                                            UFC 221 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Perth Arena - Perth, Australia - FS1
                                                            Sat 2/10 1501 Dong Hyun Kim -130 o2½ -180
                                                            9:30PM 1502 Damien Brown +110 u2½ +158
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Bad Tattoo
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 11-12-13
                                                              • 714

                                                              #275
                                                              want to say Rockhold...good fighter but he looked pretty casual in his last fight.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • JIBBBY
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 12-10-09
                                                                • 83686

                                                                #276
                                                                Originally posted by Bad Tattoo
                                                                want to say Rockhold...good fighter but he looked pretty casual in his last fight.
                                                                Luke fights with his chin up and hands down at times also, Romero could certainly tap that chin.. Luke's ko losses all came in the 1st round also, slow starter.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Luke-Rockhold-23345

                                                                Bit of a tricky fight to bet on.. I had to hedge it.

                                                                Luke doesn't fight with his hands up.. That's why he's been knocked out in fights.. Luke has pretty good head movement but he is still hittable with those hands down..





                                                                Last edited by JIBBBY; 02-10-18, 03:01 PM.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JIBBBY
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 12-10-09
                                                                  • 83686

                                                                  #277
                                                                  Romero did miss weight also.. Not sure how that plays into this fight now?http://www.news.com.au/sport/ufc/yoe...df80ccc5ecf643
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • BIGDAY
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 02-17-10
                                                                    • 48245

                                                                    #278
                                                                    Look for the Wraslters to rule this event.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • BIGDAY
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 02-17-10
                                                                      • 48245

                                                                      #279
                                                                      I do think Blaydes gets caught however..

                                                                      Tonight’s Card!

                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • JIBBBY
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 12-10-09
                                                                        • 83686

                                                                        #280
                                                                        Originally posted by BIGDAY
                                                                        Look for the Wraslters to rule this event.
                                                                        If wrastlers rule this event then why are you on Mark Hunt? Lol.. Just giving you a hard time BIGDAY.. Blaydes is my biggest play on this card..
                                                                        Comment
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