UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Poirier (November 11, 2017)

[Shagdogy]

Hope you guys had a good event. I just slightly raised my unit size so this ended up being the biggest cash of the year for me. Thanks again to everyone for the helpful feedback and analysis!

I haven't had a losing week since July, and this board has a lot to do with it. Cheers

Right on. Let's keep it going. It's definitely good for gauging confidence level of plays when we can see what each other are on and whether it lines up or not. Lets keep refining this system. Nice wins tonight.

[turbozed]

Very impressive Turbo. Keep up the great work!

This event also set me over 5-digit profit since July. I've been slowly increasing my bet size from original of $75. I'm kind of considering doing this betting thing more seriously and increasing my unit size and bankroll significantly.

I'm unsure whether this is the logical thing to do to maximize whatever edge I currently have, or whether I'm getting ahead of myself and will end up giving up my winnings being too risky.

You've been a profitable bettor for a long time now. What are your thoughts on max betting when you believe you've got an edge? What would/should prevent us from just betting 5 dimes on a fight if hypothetically we truly are +EV with this?

[Hugo de Naranja]

5dimes graded the under has a loss wtf

I just got into an argument with a customer service rep with them. 100% sure that was at 2:02 of R3 meaning under cashed by 28 seconds. Took a screen shot of the finish and she was not convinced saying that was counting down to the end of the round. I will try to get this rectified tomorrow

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 120: Poirier vs. Pettis Picks:
Karl Roberson Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Marcel Fortuna Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Sean Strickland Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Nina Ansaroff Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Sage Northcutt Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Tatiana Suarez Round 1 Submission (Armbar)
Marlon Moraes Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Clay Guida Majority Decision (29-28 x2, 28-28)
Raphael Assuncao Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Cezar Ferreira Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Junior Albini Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Matt Brown Round 1 KO (Punches)
Dustin Poirier Unanimous Decision (49-46 x2, 48-47)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 120: Poirier vs. Pettis

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Roberson (DEBUT) vs. Stewart
Roberson ITD (+110) +.55u
Roberson+Stewart Won’t Start Round 2 (+176) +.88u

Result: Karl Roberson Round 1 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Fight: +1.43u
Card: +1.43u

Fight #2: Fortuna vs. Collier
No Bet

Result: Jake Collier Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)

Fight #3: Strickland vs. McGee
Strickland Decision (+130) +1.3u

Hedge:
McGee Decision (+600) -.5u

Result: Sean Strickland Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Fight: +0.8u
Card: +2.23u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #4: Ansaroff vs. Hill
Ansaroff (+165) +3.3u
Ansaroff ITD (+560) -.5u

Result: Nina Ansaroff Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Fight: +2.8u
Card: +5.03u

Fight #5: Northcutt vs. Quinones
Northcutt Submission (+685) -.5u

Result: Sage Northcutt Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Fight: -0.5u
Card: +4.53u

Fight #6: Suarez vs. Pereira
Suarez Submission (+296) -1u

Hedge:
Pereira (+250) -1u

Result: Tatiana Suarez Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 30-26)
Fight: -2u
Card: +2.53u

Fight #7: Dodson vs. Moraes
Moraes (+100) +2u
Moraes Decision (+170) +1.7u

Hedge:
Dodson KO/TKO (+515) -1u

Added:
Moraes ITD (+500) -.5u

Result: Marlon Moraes Split Decision (30-27 x2, 27-30)
Fight: +2.2u
Card: +4.73u

Main Card:

Fight #8: Lauzon vs. Guida
Lauzon ITD (+294) -.5u
Lauzon Round 1 (+500) -.5u
Guida Round 3 (+1800) -.25u
Lauzon+Guida Draw (+7500) -1u

Added:
Lauzon KO/TKO (+700) -.25u

Result: Clay Guida Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Fight: -2.5u
Card: +2.23u

Fight #9: Assuncao vs. Lopez
Lopez Round 1 (+1575) -.5u

Result: Raphael Assuncao Round 3 KO (Punch)
Fight: -.5u
Card: +1.73u

Fight #10: Ferreira vs. Marquardt
Ferreira Decision (+160) +1.6u

Hedge:
Marquardt KO/TKO (+550) -.5u

Result: Cezar Ferreira Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Fight: +1.1u
Card: +2.83u

Fight #11: Albini vs. Arlovski
Parlays

Added:
Arlovski (+260) +1.3u

Result: Andrei Arlovski Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Fight: +1.3u
Card: +4.13u

Fight #12: Brown vs. Sanchez
Brown+Sanchez Under 2.5 (-110) +2u
Sanchez Round 3 (+2050) -.25u

Result: Matt Brown Round 1 KO (Elbow)
Fight: +1.75u
Card: +5.88u

Fight #13: Poirier vs. Pettis
Poirier (+105) +1.05u
Poirier KO/TKO (+325) +3.25u
Poirier Unanimous Decision (+565) -1u

Hedge(s):
Pettis Round 1 (+400) -.5u
Pettis Submission (+403) -.5u

Added:
Poirier+Pettis Under 2.5 (+110) +1.1u

Result: Dustin Poirier Round 3 TKO (Rib Injury)
Fight: +3.4u
Card: +9.28u

Straight Parlays:
Ferreira/Albini (+112) -1u
Assuncao+Lopez Over 2.5/Ferreira+Marquardt Over 1.5 (+138) -2u

Results: See Above
Fights: -3u
Card: +6.28u

Prop Parlays:
Roberson+Stewart U2.5/Fortuna ITD/Strickland+McGee GD (+498) -.25u
Moraes/Guida/Assuncao -3.5 (+512) +1.28u
Ansaroff/Northcutt+Quinones WGD/Suarez+Pereira WGD (+902) -.25u
Ferreira Decision/Albini ITD/Brown ITD/Poirier (+1352) -.25u

Added:
Brown+Sanchez WGD/Poirier+Pettis WSR5 (+153) +1.53u

Results: See Above
Fight: +2.06u
Card: +8.34u

Live-Betting:
Dodson (+165) -1u
Pettis (+260) -1u
Poirier+Pettis WGD (+260) -.5u
Assuncao+Lopez WGD (+290) +1.45u
Quinones (+500) -.5u

Results: Dodson and Quinones Lose, Assuncao R3 KO, Pettis Loses ITD
Fight: -1.55u
Card: +6.79u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+252) +2.52u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+595) -.5u
Poirier+Pettis FOTN (+350) +1.75u
Lauzon+Guida FOTN (+700) -.5u

FOTN: Poirier+Pettis FOTN
POTN: Brown, Assuncao
Fastest Submission: Roberson R1 (3:41)
Fastest KO: Guida R1 (1:07)
Decisions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Results: See Above
Fights: +3.27u
Final Card Total = +10.06u

Multi-Event Parlays:
Strickland+McGee Over 2.5/Open (+xxx) 2u

Result: Strickland+McGee Over 2.5 Wins
Fight: +0u
Multi-Event Parlays = Carries Over

[Hugo de Naranja]

Solid 10u profit on the night with some solid picks. Super happy with that

[flickavic]

5dimes wont pay me my under 2.5 round porier/pettis bet. i was last leg of a 2,000 winning parlay.. did any1 else bet this on 5dimes?

[Hugo de Naranja]

5dimes wont pay me my under 2.5 round porier/pettis bet. i was last leg of a 2,000 winning parlay.. did any1 else bet this on 5dimes?

I did. They gave graded it wrong. You can call them or file a claim tomorrow. They said fight ended at 2:52 of R3 when it actually ended at 2:08. I took a video after re-watching. Under definitely cashed here.

[Hugo de Naranja]

This event also set me over 5-digit profit since July. I've been slowly increasing my bet size from original of $75. I'm kind of considering doing this betting thing more seriously and increasing my unit size and bankroll significantly.

I'm unsure whether this is the logical thing to do to maximize whatever edge I currently have, or whether I'm getting ahead of myself and will end up giving up my winnings being too risky.

You've been a profitable bettor for a long time now. What are your thoughts on max betting when you believe you've got an edge? What would/should prevent us from just betting 5 dimes on a fight if hypothetically we truly are +EV with this?

I think it is better to bet smaller amounts for many fights rather than a ton on any one result. If you are a true +EV bettor, all those smaller wins will add up with less variance than having a few huge bets. It can be tempting to get carried away after a huge event or streak but I would say the best thing to do it exercise caution.

[turbozed]

I think it is better to bet smaller amounts for many fights rather than a ton on any one result. If you are a true +EV bettor, all those smaller wins will add up with less variance than having a few huge bets. It can be tempting to get carried away after a huge event or streak but I would say the best thing to do it exercise caution.

Why not increase the size of all those smaller bets so long as your bankroll can support it though? Wouldn't you want to get down as much as possible if you're +EV?

[poopoo333]

I did. They gave graded it wrong. You can call them or file a claim tomorrow. They said fight ended at 2:52 of R3 when it actually ended at 2:08. I took a video after re-watching. Under definitely cashed here.

I am having this issue as well. Contacting them now.

[Shagdogy]

Why not increase the size of all those smaller bets so long as your bankroll can support it though? Wouldn't you want to get down as much as possible if you're +EV?

If you consistently win then I say push your bankroll to whatever you are comfortable with. I would say I'm conservative with my money and this works for me:

Bankroll: I determine it year to year and don't adjust it throughout the year no matter my wins or losses. I set my bankroll as the amount of money I could theoretically lose to this hobby in one year and still stay sane. I've never bankrupted that bankroll or even come close, but I've also never been desperate in gambling. Helps keep me even keel.

Unit size = 2% of your bankroll, max. I use 1.5% of my bankroll as unit size. For you, at $75 per unit, you would need a bankroll of between $3,750 - $5,000 to play in that 1.5-2% range.

Bet sizes: I tier my bets from 1 to 5 units. 5 unit risk is the biggest play that I will make, no exceptions. I try to keep my total risk on any given card no more than 15 total units.

This system works for me. I know that I will be unaffected by reasonable swings throughout the year, but it does put a cap on the amount of money I could potentially win. I'm not trying to quit my job with this though. I told Hugo, ultimately if I could fund 1 IRA contribution per year off of it that would be great. Like you, I need to work up to that level of risk though.

I'm sure there are some other good strategies that work for you all. I'd be interested in hearing your approaches to bankroll management and betting sizes.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Pettis has no heart as I said early in this thread

time to hang 'em up

[Shagdogy]

Pettis has no heart as I said early in this thread

time to hang 'em up

Really? He was diced to hell in that fight but definitely didn't quit. If not for all that blood he may have been able to finish one of those triangle attempts. In round 1 his right hand was looking pretty decent until Poirier overwhelmed him. Give Poirier some credit. He's bringing it right now.

[nyrider88]

Really? He was diced to hell in that fight but definitely didn't quit. If not for all that blood he may have been able to finish one of those triangle attempts. In round 1 his right hand was looking pretty decent until Poirier overwhelmed him. Give Poirier some credit. He's bringing it right now.

not sure if he has any heart himself. it's hard to mock or not respect a fighter who literally just lost a pint of blood in there. badly beat, gassed, red vision, and got full mounted, and he knew heavy shots are coming.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Why not increase the size of all those smaller bets so long as your bankroll can support it though? Wouldn't you want to get down as much as possible if you're +EV?

If you have a decent sample size of winning increasing your unit size makes sense to me.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I am having this issue as well. Contacting them now.

They have corrected it for me. As it corrected for you guys?

[flickavic]

yep. paid this morning.

[Thor4140]

that was by far the tightest triangle he had in, legit think that couldve been a 50/50 finish ..... what a terrible time to stand them up when he had so many chances to before that..... tough to watch that, was super bloody but it looked like it was very close to locked in


hope pettis bounces back , he hasnt looked the same in a while though, id like to see him vs alvarez and gaethje vs porier though

All my years of watching this stuff i never saw anyone get stood up like that. I had Pettis and i pretty much gave up after that. Im watching it and thinking did this asshole ref just stand up two fighters with one in a triangle. I re-winded it and sure enuf i was right. Pettis is so quick that it happen so fast but that is no excuse for a ref standing in the ring.

[firekillex]

All my years of watching this stuff i never saw anyone get stood up like that. I had Pettis and i pretty much gave up after that. Im watching it and thinking did this asshole ref just stand up two fighters with one in a triangle. I re-winded it and sure enuf i was right. Pettis is so quick that it happen so fast but that is no excuse for a ref standing in the ring.

yup it was tough to watch when i rewatched it quickly... i seen it but i didnt no if it was locked in, but it was literally a full out locked in triangle that very likely couldve ended the fight, especially since porier was putting so much power and effort into his shots he was pretty tired which helps a choke like that.. wouldve been a HUGE win for pettis showing his heart there all bloodied up too... sucks he got screwed on that one

[Thor4140]

Dana has to step in now and end it for Diego like he did for Chuck. How many more of these shots is this kid gonna take. If u get hit by a shot wound up from left field it is time to go. These are some savage knockouts he is taking.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Really? He was diced to hell in that fight but definitely didn't quit. If not for all that blood he may have been able to finish one of those triangle attempts. In round 1 his right hand was looking pretty decent until Poirier overwhelmed him. Give Poirier some credit. He's bringing it right now.

not sure if he has any heart himself. it's hard to mock or not respect a fighter who literally just lost a pint of blood in there. badly beat, gassed, red vision, and got full mounted, and he knew heavy shots are coming.

yup it was tough to watch when i rewatched it quickly... i seen it but i didnt no if it was locked in, but it was literally a full out locked in triangle that very likely couldve ended the fight, especially since porier was putting so much power and effort into his shots he was pretty tired which helps a choke like that.. wouldve been a HUGE win for pettis showing his heart there all bloodied up too... sucks he got screwed on that one

Pettis nothing more than a gate keeper nowadays

only belt he will be wearing is Gucci or Prada

[PaperTrail07]

Dude you called it perfect....guy is a GQ magazine guy theses days...lost the killer instinct
Dustin Poirier on Anthony Pettis injury at UFC Norfolk: It was a broken man, not a broken rib

..

Pettis nothing more than a gate keeper nowadays

only belt he will be wearing is Gucci or Prada

[firekillex]

meh pettis didnt look terrible , hes just not great against pressure fighters who can get him down to the mat and take his shots
porier took a huge uppercut and ate it well, he had some great reversals in the scrambles and literally had a triangle locked in, if that didnt get stood up and he won by submission peoples outlook would be much different

when he stood up after the round bloodied and looked super pumped up i seen some fire left in him, i agree he will not be a champion again but he is a top 15 talent imo

[Shagdogy]

Pettis nothing more than a gate keeper nowadays

only belt he will be wearing is Gucci or Prada

No whining coming from me my man. I won my bet on Poirier. I'm just saying I think you all are being too harsh on Pettis. He'd beat a lot of guys in that division and he had some serious adversity in that fight.

[UncleChael]

I smash Anthony Pettis in 1 round - Nurmagomedov

[firekillex]

a matchup id like for pettis next would be somebody like michael johnson / Al iaquinta

[PaperTrail07]

Would be interesting as MJ beat DP...

a matchup id like for pettis next would be somebody like michael johnson / Al iaquinta

[firekillex]

Would be interesting as MJ beat DP...

styles make fights, michael johnson has beat a ton of quality guys and lost ton of them as well

mma math never works.. but id like to see pettis against a striker who can take a shot and give a shot

unless they really wanna give him an up and comer like paul felder or james vick next but i dont think theyll do that

[Thor4140]

styles make fights, michael johnson has beat a ton of quality guys and lost ton of them as well

mma math never works.. but id like to see pettis against a striker who can take a shot and give a shot

unless they really wanna give him an up and comer like paul felder or james vick next but i dont think theyll do that

i have to go back and watch some film of pettis back when he was the champ but to me it looks like he stands to straight up anymore. I don't remember him sticking his jaw out there like that. Another thought is maybe just maybe Benson Henderson is a bit overrated. Pettis basically built his name from Benson. I was never a big Henderson fan. 3/4 of his title wins i thought he lost.

[Hugo de Naranja]

i have to go back and watch some film of pettis back when he was the champ but to me it looks like he stands to straight up anymore. I don't remember him sticking his jaw out there like that. Another thought is maybe just maybe Benson Henderson is a bit overrated. Pettis basically built his name from Benson. I was never a big Henderson fan. 3/4 of his title wins i thought he lost.

Highly overrated. One of my least favorite fighters ever.

[firekillex]

Highly overrated. One of my least favorite fighters ever.

agreed, hes a nice guy but his style is extremely boring and a lot of his wins were fights i thought he lost imo... he just used his sie and athletic skills to grind guys that were smaller like frankie edgar

pettis has had a very very bad few years though.... i actually think him focusing so much on wrestling lately has hindered his striking a bit and let others catch up to him, he shouldve just stuck to his style be an elite striker and great off your back... sometimes you will get grinded out by a great wrestler but he has skills to finish anybody at anytime