UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio (July 16, 2017)

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  • PaperTrail07
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 08-29-08
    • 20423

    #106
    Cant slip anything past Hugo Tho .....Craig also used strikes OK and moved in for the TD..Pedro was just too strong....and was throwing Knees at him....Craig could tie up with Roundtree IMO and not be in immediate danger like he was w pedro..
    Comment
    • turbozed
      SBR MVP
      • 10-15-08
      • 2435

      #107
      Originally posted by JIBBBY
      Yup.... Liking all the favorites myself.. Better value then expected with Campos IMO...
      Why do you like Campos here? Campos plants his feet, stands and trade. This is not a good style against Girtz who seems to have both better power and chin. Girtz probably has better wrestling too (or at least takedowns). I guess some think Girtz is not as good anymore after ACL surgery and dropping his last two. But one loss was to Piccolotti who fought him perfectly staying out of range (something Campos doesn't appear to be able to do) and the other guy was a big welterweight that weighed like 15-20 lbs more than him. BTW, that guy couldn't even make weight. Catchweight was 174 lbs (Girtz was 166 lbs). Only concern for me for Girtz is whether he's been having persistent issues with the knee injury. Also he's taking the fight on 3 weeks notice. I haven't seen their first fight but was a close fight apparently.

      Also, Girtz says that he was ready for a fight because he was Gaethje's main training partner and was in camp with him preparing Gaethje for the Johnson fight.
      Last edited by turbozed; 07-14-17, 12:05 PM. Reason: added info
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      • Hugo de Naranja
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 04-14-16
        • 14140

        #108
        Originally posted by PaperTrail07
        Cant slip anything past Hugo Tho .....Craig also used strikes OK and moved in for the TD..Pedro was just too strong....and was throwing Knees at him....Craig could tie up with Roundtree IMO and not be in immediate danger like he was w pedro..
        Comment
        • PaperTrail07
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 08-29-08
          • 20423

          #109
          Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
          Comment
          • GoBlue77
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 03-20-11
            • 9166

            #110
            Calvillo

            $1200 straight
            Comment
            • GoBlue77
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 03-20-11
              • 9166

              #111
              Originally posted by PaperTrail07
              Honestly Cavillo should ROLL Calderwood LOL.....Might go HEAVY
              same thoughts. was waiting for this matchup. calderwood is waiting to join the other weight class. she has one foot out the door already
              Comment
              • PaperTrail07
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 08-29-08
                • 20423

                #112
                100% BLUE Glad to see I'm not the only one who see's a huge mismatch in skill and strike volume...
                Comment
                • Hugo de Naranja
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 04-14-16
                  • 14140

                  #113
                  Originally posted by PaperTrail07
                  100% BLUE Glad to see I'm not the only one who see's a huge mismatch in skill and strike volume...
                  I like Calvillo here but I'm not sure it's a huge mismatch in striking volume. Calderwood lands 6.92 SS/min compared to 3.69 SS/min for Calvillo. I just don't think Calderwood can keep it on the feet and avoid being submitted
                  Comment
                  • PaperTrail07
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 08-29-08
                    • 20423

                    #114
                    Enh Calderwood is good at hitting sitting punching bags....will agree there ......I think the strike volume HERE will be diff...Cavillo not going down to those slow ass strikes...
                    Comment
                    • Hugo de Naranja
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 04-14-16
                      • 14140

                      #115
                      Originally posted by PaperTrail07
                      Enh Calderwood is good at hitting sitting punching bags....will agree there ......I think the strike volume HERE will be diff...Cavillo not going down to those slow ass strikes...
                      Do you think that if the fight is 100% on the feet, Calvillo wins a decision by volume?
                      Comment
                      • turbozed
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-15-08
                        • 2435

                        #116
                        Originally posted by PaperTrail07
                        Enh Calderwood is good at hitting sitting punching bags....will agree there ......I think the strike volume HERE will be diff...Cavillo not going down to those slow ass strikes...
                        I agree with you here. Calvillo is there to be hit, but not by Calderwood's slow punches. She can land on stationary targets like Courtney Casey, but Calvillo's active and lateral movement probably means she only lands kicks at range but whiffs on punches. At closer range, I don't think she can prevent a clinch. The question is whether or not she can prevent a takedown. Calvillo doesn't seem to have any powerful takedowns and the fight goes to the ground moreso by circumstance. If Calderwood can keep it standing, it might be closer because of the volume. If Calvillo has the better striking, then JoJo has no chance whatsoever.
                        Comment
                        • PaperTrail07
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 08-29-08
                          • 20423

                          #117
                          I mean 100% feet.....I would still say yes....but if this fight ended and I knew it never went to the ground---no I wouldn't be as confident LOL...
                          Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                          Do you think that if the fight is 100% on the feet, Calvillo wins a decision by volume?
                          Comment
                          • PaperTrail07
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 08-29-08
                            • 20423

                            #118
                            Agree.....calder will be flat footed in comparison...those front leg kicks wont do shit and her punches will all be slow counters w cavillo pushing the action.....
                            Originally posted by turbozed
                            I agree with you here. Calvillo is there to be hit, but not by Calderwood's slow punches. She can land on stationary targets like Courtney Casey, but Calvillo's active and lateral movement probably means she only lands kicks at range but whiffs on punches. At closer range, I don't think she can prevent a clinch. The question is whether or not she can prevent a takedown. Calvillo doesn't seem to have any powerful takedowns and the fight goes to the ground moreso by circumstance. If Calderwood can keep it standing, it might be closer because of the volume. If Calvillo has the better striking, then JoJo has no chance whatsoever.
                            Comment
                            • PaperTrail07
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 08-29-08
                              • 20423

                              #119
                              Lines moving in Ray's Direction....don't get it LOL....
                              Originally posted by Ty$
                              Parlay the almost guaranteed OVERS. Why didn't Ray impress me? Zero killer instinct. Thought with how tired Joe was should be able to finish. Also this Lemos girl has literally fought cans w 1 fight almost all 6 of her fights. Leslie should win and just looked good against Aldana who was suppose to be the better striker. Hopefully that fight is set at 1.5. Need to get to my computer to check line.
                              Comment
                              • turbozed
                                SBR MVP
                                • 10-15-08
                                • 2435

                                #120
                                BTW, Calderwood has been training at Tristar with Zahabi. I don't think this is going to make her a better grappler overnight, but might mean that we see some different gameplanning from her this fight.
                                Comment
                                • Shagdogy
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 06-16-10
                                  • 3564

                                  #121
                                  Originally posted by turbozed
                                  BTW, Calderwood has been training at Tristar with Zahabi. I don't think this is going to make her a better grappler overnight, but might mean that we see some different gameplanning from her this fight.
                                  She would be stupid to grapple willingly with Calvillo. Never seen that girl lose position in a scramble. She's solid and has great instincts in grappling. Also much faster and more creative than her opponents. I have not been impressed with Calvillo's striking, but I think it could be enough. She wins either way but I'd love to see her get it to the ground and end it.
                                  Comment
                                  • JIBBBY
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 12-10-09
                                    • 83686

                                    #122
                                    Originally posted by turbozed
                                    Why do you like Campos here? Campos plants his feet, stands and trade. This is not a good style against Girtz who seems to have both better power and chin. Girtz probably has better wrestling too (or at least takedowns). I guess some think Girtz is not as good anymore after ACL surgery and dropping his last two. But one loss was to Piccolotti who fought him perfectly staying out of range (something Campos doesn't appear to be able to do) and the other guy was a big welterweight that weighed like 15-20 lbs more than him. BTW, that guy couldn't even make weight. Catchweight was 174 lbs (Girtz was 166 lbs). Only concern for me for Girtz is whether he's been having persistent issues with the knee injury. Also he's taking the fight on 3 weeks notice. I haven't seen their first fight but was a close fight apparently.

                                    Also, Girtz says that he was ready for a fight because he was Gaethje's main training partner and was in camp with him preparing Gaethje for the Johnson fight.
                                    Derek Campos winner of 3 straight, Girtz loser of 2 straight.. Brandon Gritz knocked out Campos 2 years ago and don't think he can do it again in the rematch.. Campos got better and I'm not so sure Girtz has in the last 2 years..

                                    Not super confident but I do think Derek Campos is more skilled and will show better in the rematch.... We'll see??? I got Campos winning by decision in this rematch..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Derek-Campos-42543

                                    Both fighters have knack for going to decision in recent fights.. Dereck Campos fights more cautious in this one I believe he wins on points.. In for a small fifty spot..

                                    $50.00 $120.50 Pending 7/14/17 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 3011 Campos wins by 3 round decision +241* vs Not Campos by 3 round decision



                                    Brandon Girtz vs Derek Campos - Catchweight 3 rounds - Bellator 181
                                    Fri 7/14 3003 Girtz / Campos goes 3 round distance -165
                                    10:30PM 3004 Fight won’t go 3 round distance +125
                                    Fri 7/14 3005 Girtz wins inside distance +469
                                    10:30PM 3006 Not Girtz inside distance -805
                                    Fri 7/14 3007 Girtz wins by 3 round decision +177
                                    10:30PM 3008 Not Girtz by 3 round decision -250
                                    Fri 7/14 3009 Campos wins inside distance +220
                                    10:30PM 3010 Not Campos inside distance -300
                                    Fri 7/14 3011 Campos wins by 3 round decision +241
                                    10:30PM 3012 Not Campos by 3 round decision -322
                                    Fri 7/14 3013 Girtz / Campos draw +5000
                                    10:30PM 3014 Fight not a draw -12500
                                    Steve Garcia Jr vs Joe Warren - Bantamweight 3 rounds - Bellator 181
                                    Fri 7/14 3103 Garcia / Warren goes 3 round distance -165
                                    10:00PM 3104 Fight won’t go 3 round distance +125
                                    Fri 7/14 3105 Garcia wins inside distance +354
                                    10:00PM 3106 Not Garcia inside distance -545
                                    Fri 7/14 3107 Garcia wins by 3 round decision +380
                                    10:00PM 3108 Not Garcia by 3 round decision -570
                                    Fri 7/14 3109 Warren wins inside distance +279
                                    10:00PM 3110 Not Warren inside distance -399
                                    Fri 7/14 3111 Warren wins by 3 round decision +105
                                    10:00PM 3112 Not Warren by 3 round decision -145
                                    Fri 7/14 3113 Garcia / Warren draw +5500
                                    10:00PM 3114 Fight not a draw -13500
                                    Kendall Grove vs John Salter - Middleweight 3 rounds - Bellator 181
                                    Fri 7/14 3203 Grove / Salter goes 3 round distance +160
                                    9:30PM 3204 Fight won’t go 3 round distance -210
                                    Fri 7/14 3205 Grove wins inside distance +442
                                    9:30PM 3206 Not Grove inside distance -725
                                    Fri 7/14 3207 Grove wins by 3 round decision +458
                                    9:30PM 3208 Not Grove by 3 round decision -772
                                    Fri 7/14 3209 Salter wins inside distance -110
                                    9:30PM 3210 Not Salter inside distance -130
                                    Fri 7/14 3211 Salter wins by 3 round decision +285
                                    9:30PM 3212 Not Salter by 3 round decision -405
                                    Fri 7/14 3213 Grove / Salter draw +4500
                                    9:30PM 3214 Fight not a draw -11000
                                    Jessica Middleton vs Emily Ducote - Flyweight 3 rounds - Bellator 181
                                    Fri 7/14 3303 Middleton / Ducote goes 3 round distance -185
                                    9:00PM 3304 Fight won’t go 3 round distance +145
                                    Fri 7/14 3305 Middleton wins inside distance +910
                                    9:00PM 3306 Not Middleton inside distance -1860
                                    Fri 7/14 3307 Middleton wins by 3 round decision +280
                                    9:00PM 3308 Not Middleton by 3 round decision -400
                                    Fri 7/14 3309 Ducote wins inside distance +155
                                    9:00PM 3310 Not Ducote inside distance -195
                                    Fri 7/14 3311 Ducote wins by 3 round decision +135
                                    9:00PM 3312 Not Ducote by 3 round decision -175
                                    Fri 7/14 3313 Middleton / Ducote draw +5500
                                    9:00PM 3314 Fight not a draw -13500
                                    Last edited by JIBBBY; 07-14-17, 03:26 PM.
                                    Comment
                                    • Shagdogy
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 06-16-10
                                      • 3564

                                      #123
                                      I'm not in love with his skills but anyone else think Bobby Nash can bully Danny Roberts?
                                      Comment
                                      • Shagdogy
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 06-16-10
                                        • 3564

                                        #124
                                        Eh tough fight to call actually. Jingliang needed his well known toughness to weather the first round and a half vs. Nash. Danny Roberts has a decent chin in that he won't get flash KO'd, but he doesn't take punches as well as Jingliang, that's for sure. That said, Nash is hittable. Too hittable, and Roberts throws that left hand with high volume. This fight could be a brawl.
                                        Comment
                                        • Hugo de Naranja
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 04-14-16
                                          • 14140

                                          #125
                                          Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                          Eh tough fight to call actually. Jingliang needed his well known toughness to weather the first round and a half vs. Nash. Danny Roberts has a decent chin in that he won't get flash KO'd, but he doesn't take punches as well as Jingliang, that's for sure. That said, Nash is hittable. Too hittable, and Roberts throws that left hand with high volume. This fight could be a brawl.
                                          I put 1u on Nash ITD (+262). Think he hits hard as hell and that this fight will look a lot like Roberts vs. Perry where both guys are landing big shots until someone goes down.
                                          Comment
                                          • Shagdogy
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 06-16-10
                                            • 3564

                                            #126
                                            Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                            I put 1u on Nash ITD (+262). Think he hits hard as hell and that this fight will look a lot like Roberts vs. Perry where both guys are landing big shots until someone goes down.
                                            Yeah, probably not a bad play.
                                            Comment
                                            • Rich Benjamins
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 12-15-15
                                              • 831

                                              #127
                                              Could be Paper. I've got some crazy bets flying around this weekend. I could win a lot and get lucky, or get my ass handed to me. Good luck
                                              Originally posted by PaperTrail07
                                              I just don't think your giving Pedro enough credit......To be fair he was winning before the arm bar....Lets not forget pedro put down rountree with ease also...
                                              [/QUOTE]
                                              Comment
                                              • Shagdogy
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 06-16-10
                                                • 3564

                                                #128
                                                James Mulheron vs. Justin Willis: Willis is a very big heavyweight (cuts to 265) who is training at AKA. Hard to see a lot from him but he seems to pressure, clinch, takedown. Seen him pick a guy up and slam him, and also saw a crafty trip takedown out of him. AKA is a solid wrestling camp. Meanwhile, Mulheron has fought entirely in England. He's built like Roy Nelson and fights a strictly kickboxing style. It looks like he has literally never had to worry about a legit takedown threat. In every single fight I've seen of his, he is able to stand right in front of guys, get loose, and just throw without even thinking about being taken down. This will NOT be the case vs. Willis. In Mulheron's most recent fight vs. Geraint Hill (on youtube), his opponent was such trash that he could just stand in front of him loose as could be and do whatever he wanted. Hill had absolutely nothing. Does Mulheron have an answer for wrestling? I doubt it. Especially being undersized in this match. I think Willis throws him to the ground and goes to work. Mulheron's only chance is to weather the storm, get Willis to gas, and then stand in front of him and kickbox. I don't see it happening. Willis should dictate this entire fight. Easy stoppage or decision victory.

                                                Edit: Willis's striking defense is pretty poor, but he will definitely pressure and close the distance on Mulheron's best strikes. I finally scoped Willis's 2nd to last fight (still can't find his fight vs. Coutinho) and the striking D is just sloppy. Something to consider. I'm still going to play him.
                                                Last edited by Shagdogy; 07-14-17, 08:46 PM.
                                                Comment
                                                • Shagdogy
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 06-16-10
                                                  • 3564

                                                  #129
                                                  Originally posted by PaperTrail07
                                                  I just don't think your giving Pedro enough credit......To be fair he was winning before the arm bar....Lets not forget pedro put down rountree with ease also...
                                                  [/QUOTE]
                                                  I will second this. Pedro is a guy to keep an eye on. He's legit.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Hugo de Naranja
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 04-14-16
                                                    • 14140

                                                    #130
                                                    Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                                    Yeah, probably not a bad play.
                                                    Moved all the way up to (+345). Adding .5u at that price
                                                    Comment
                                                    • turbozed
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 10-15-08
                                                      • 2435

                                                      #131
                                                      Damn Girtz and Campos was a good fight. Was anyone's fight but odd doctor stoppage. Nasty cut but unsatisfying ending.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Shagdogy
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 06-16-10
                                                        • 3564

                                                        #132
                                                        Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                                        Moved all the way up to (+345). Adding .5u at that price
                                                        Hate my book. Doesn't offer ITD, just win by TKO or sub but not ITD in general. Also doesn't release props until way late after they've tightened up the lines.

                                                        On the plus side, don't need to load my account. No tying up money.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Hugo de Naranja
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 04-14-16
                                                          • 14140

                                                          #133
                                                          Originally posted by turbozed
                                                          Damn Girtz and Campos was a good fight. Was anyone's fight but odd doctor stoppage. Nasty cut but unsatisfying ending.
                                                          Agreed. Very entertaining fight. Not sure why they stopped it after doctor said he wouldn't stop it unless cut got to eyebrow
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Hugo de Naranja
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 04-14-16
                                                            • 14140

                                                            #134
                                                            Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                                            Hate my book. Doesn't offer ITD, just win by TKO or sub but not ITD in general. Also doesn't release props until way late after they've tightened up the lines.

                                                            On the plus side, don't need to load my account. No tying up money.
                                                            Gotta get on the 5Dimes train my friend
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Shagdogy
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 06-16-10
                                                              • 3564

                                                              #135
                                                              Hey Ty, you're captain O/U, what do you think of that Rountree/Craig over 1.5 sitting at +175. Craig has a chin.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Rich Benjamins
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 12-15-15
                                                                • 831

                                                                #136
                                                                I see the over is + so it might be worth a bet. But be very careful with overs man. I know a couple people who went broke betting them. Often they're a sucker's bet, for some reason people like to bet them. I prefer unders but usually i just bet who i think will win.

                                                                Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                                                Hey Ty, you're captain O/U, what do you think of that Rountree/Craig over 1.5 sitting at +175. Craig has a chin.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Shagdogy
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 06-16-10
                                                                  • 3564

                                                                  #137
                                                                  Originally posted by Rich Benjamins
                                                                  I see the over is + so it might be worth a bet. But be very careful with overs man. I know a couple people who went broke betting them. Often they're a sucker's bet, for some reason people like to bet them. I prefer unders but usually i just bet who i think will win.
                                                                  Yup. I'm never as confident on O/U's as I am picking winners so I keep my risk low always. I would put 1u on this and I already have a 4u and 3u straight play going this card. I never hitch my wagon to O/U's and I go multiple cards without playing any.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Ty$
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 03-20-16
                                                                    • 1241

                                                                    #138
                                                                    Originally posted by Shagdogy
                                                                    Hey Ty, you're captain O/U, what do you think of that Rountree/Craig over 1.5 sitting at +175. Craig has a chin.
                                                                    That fights ending fast AF!!! Both guys only have one way to win. Craig has shit cardio.

                                                                    Fights I like to go 3 rounds
                                                                    1. Johns/Morales
                                                                    2. Pantoja/Seery
                                                                    3. Felder/Ray

                                                                    Parlay it and call it a day
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Ty$
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 03-20-16
                                                                      • 1241

                                                                      #139
                                                                      Also like Johns -3.5 Dec and Pantoja -3.5 dec... if they get posted... sometimes O\Us are the easiest pick ... like in the Felder fight hence why the juice is so high but in my eyes it might as well be -500 cuz those guys fight 3 rounds 9/10. Sometimes I can't pick a fighter but I can figure how they will fight and the pace. Blaydes/Olmenchrck 1.5 lines makers were Fn smoking rocks!!!
                                                                      Last edited by Ty$; 07-15-17, 09:32 AM.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Ty$
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 03-20-16
                                                                        • 1241

                                                                        #140
                                                                        2 Unders to look at I think are

                                                                        Marshman fight and Calvillo fight
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