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I edited the above post check again..
I'm not done with this prop.. I'm just starting to get bets in now.. No rush.. I was hoping the odds might get better closer to fight time.. Doesn't look that way since you nailed it at +110.. Good job...
Trust me I will hit this again and on all my books..
I love this bet at even odds...
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It seems to me that money almost always pours in on McGregor + ITD during fight week as the Irish hit the books so I wanted to get this one in early. I think the best price that we'll get on this prop (+120) has already passed. Thinking this closes at about (-125) which coincidentally was the opener on McGregor straight.I edited the above post check again..
I'm not done with this prop.. I'm just starting to get bets in now.. No rush.. I was hoping the odds might get better closer to fight time.. Doesn't look that way since you nailed it at +110.. Good job...
Trust me I will hit this again and on all my books.. I love this bet at even odds...Comment -
I was thinking Alvarez would have a good shot to win. He will bum rush McGregor and make this a dog fight. Will be mentally challenging for Alvarez if Conor stuffs his takedowns.Comment -
To those considering a large bet on Weidman, don't forget to factor in that he just had major neck surgery after coming off the worst beating of his life against Rockhold.Comment -
Another ITD prop I nailed down at +300... Romero I think breaks Weidman and takes him out... Will be on Romero straight at +145 also for more like I normally do when not hedging......
I think Romero busts up Weidman, remember Weidman hasn't fought in a very long time and on the flip Romero has stayed very active..
This is a very scary fight for CW to take after a long lay off..
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Also Loving Kennedy against Rashad Evans whom is completely washed up I believe... I think Kennedy puts him to sleep again....
$100.00 $200.00 Pending 11/12/16 8:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1833 Kennedy wins by TKO/KO +200* vs Any other result Comment -
^^ Just my luck that fight just got scratched a few minutes ago.. I am just seeing this now... ERRRRR!!!!
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There had to be one.^^ Just my luck that fight just got scratched a few minutes ago.. I am just seeing this now... ERRRRR!!!!
http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/11/8...d-from-ufc-205Comment -
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MMA MANIA prelim previews and predicitons.. Part 1 and 2...
155 lbs.: Thiago Alves vs. Jim Miller
Ravaged by injuries, Thiago Alves (21-10) fought just once between 2012 and 2015, winning a decision over Seth Baczynski. He returned in January and knocked out Jordan Mein before suffering a knockout loss of his own to Carlos Condit the following May.
This will be both his Lightweight debut and his first fight in more than 17 months.
Jim Miller (27-8) -- once on the brink of the Top 10 -- suffered a 1-4 stretch from the end of 2014 to the beginning of 2016, the sole win a split decision over Danny Castillo. He’s recently righted the ship somewhat with consecutive victories over Takanori Gomi and Joe Lauzon.
He has submitted 14 opponents as a professional.
If this fight took place about four or five years ago, I’d be all over it. As is, it’s more wince-worthy than drool-worthy. Alves is held together with duct tape and positive thinking at this point, while Miller’s only quality performance in his last seven fights came against the smoking ruin of "Fireball Kid."
That’s not even mentioning the fact that Alves -- whose adversarial relationship with the Welterweight limit is the stuff of legend -- is trying to cut another 15 pounds. Assuming everything works out for him, though, he has the stylistic edge. His wrestling is every bit as good as Miller’s and his overall striking technique outstrips his foe’s. If he can get his dried-out jerky slab of a body to the scale and then to the cage, he takes a competitive decision.
Prediction: Alves via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Belal Muhammad vs. Vicente Luque
Belal Muhammad (10-1) -- fresh off a knockout of Steve Carl for the Titan FC title -- gave Alan Jouban all he could handle in his "Fight of the Night"-winning debut despite losing the decision. "Remember the Name" returned two months later to pound out Augusto Montaño in Hidalgo, Texas, and earn his first UFC victory.
He has knocked out four opponents overall and will give up an inch of height to Luque.
After losing to Hayder Hassan in the climactic fight of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 21 and to Michael Graves in his official Octagon debut, Vicente Luque (10-5-1) proved his mettle with three consecutive stoppage victories. Most recently, he obliterated Hector Urbina in 60 seconds with one of the year’s best one-punch knockouts.
He replaces Lyman Good, who ran afoul of USADA approximately two weeks before fight night.
Luque’s just 24 years old and looks like he could make a real dent in the division, but the style match up isn’t in his favor. Muhammad figures to have a slight edge on the feet and his sturdy counter-wrestling takes Luque’s submission prowess out of the equation. Muhammad also knows how to work the body and wear down opponents, which could pay great dividends considering Luque’s lack of prep time.
The Brazilian is dangerous enough to make Muhammad work for it, but expect the latter to take a clear decision as he takes over down the stretch.
Prediction: Muhammad via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Liz Carmouche vs. Kaitlyn Chookagian
Liz Carmouche (10-5) -- who squared off with Ronda Rousey in the UFC’s first-ever women’s fight -- has gone even (2-2) since falling short in that bout. In her most recent fight, "Girl-Rilla" out-gritted Invicta standout Lauren Murphy to snap a two-fight losing streak.
This will be her first fight in 18 months.
Kaitlyn Chookagian (8-0) joined UFC with two CFFC belts around her waist and a 45-second knockout in her most recent effort. She kept up the momentum with a decision win over Lauren Murphy at UFC 191.
She is three inches taller than Carmouche at 5’9."
Carmouche’s major issue is that, while she possesses one of the division’s best top games, she’s very limited on the feet and doesn’t always set up her takedowns well when she can’t physically overpower her foes. Chookagian may have spent a significant chunk of her career at Flyweight, but she more than held her own against Murphy’s grappling and figures to have the striking edge.
If Carmouche was more consistently effective with her wrestling and wasn’t coming off such a long layoff, she’d have a great shot here. With said issues and Chookagian’s strong recent performance, though, I’m picking her to keep her undefeated record intact.
Prediction: Chookagian via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Frankie Edgar (20-5-1) vs. Jeremy Stephens (25-12)
"The Answer" bounced back from his loss to Jose Aldo by scoring five consecutive wins, including a one-punch knockout of Chad Mendes. This set up an interim title bout with the aforementioned Aldo, who jabbed and countered his way to a unanimous decision at UFC 200. At 5’6", he is three inches shorter than Stephens.
A knockout loss to Yves Edwards, the first such defeat of Stephens’ career, sent him down to featherweight, where he’s gone 5-3. In his last fight, he upset former bantamweight champion Renan Barao in a Fight of the Night-winning performance at Fight Night 88. He has knocked out sixteen opponents overall.
Stephens is in an odd spot where he still clearly hits crazy hard, but hasn’t knocked anyone out with punches since starching Marcus Davis in 2011. The only two stoppages he’s picked up since came via head kick and flying knee, neither of which is likely to land on Edgar.
Without assurance that what few punches he lands on Edgar will be killshots, it’s hard to pick him.
Edgar is almost going to out-land and out-wrestle Stephens and his composure under fire precludes the sort of wild exchanges "Lil’ Heathen" used to pull ahead against Barao. Edgar picks him apart with his customary in-and-out stylings for the decision.
Prediction: Edgar by unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Khabib Nurmagomedov (23-0) vs. Michael Johnson (17-10)
Nurmagomedov opened his 2014 campaign with a career-best win over Rafael Dos Anjos, only to suffer repeated injuries that derailed his momentum. He returned two years later against late replacement Darrell Horcher, whom he destroyed en route to a second-round TKO. He’s 7-0 overall in the UFC, including three stoppages.
"The Menace" saw his unexpected rise through the lightweight ranks hampered by a questionable loss to Beneil Dariush, followed by a much-less-questionable loss to Nate Diaz afterwards. In September, he righted the ship with a brutal knockout of Dustin Poirier in the main event of UFC Fight Night 94. He’s knocked out eight opponents overall.
While his hands have drawn the most attention, Johnson’s takedown defense has been the key to his resurgence. He went from being manhandled by Myles Jury and Reza Madadi to turning aside the likes of Gleison Tibau and Beneil Dariush.
That said, it’s hard to forget that he was an absolute dead fish off of his back last we saw, getting hammered into the dirt every time someone put him there. Nurmagomedov is very, very good at putting people there.
I’m simply not convinced that Johnson can stay on his feet for any length of time. Khabib does the Khabib thing, tossing Johnson around before ultimately pounding him out late.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov by third-round TKO
185 lbs.: Tim Boetsch (19-10) vs. Rafael Natal (21-7-1) "The Barbarian" stepped into the cage against Josh Samman on the heels of three consecutive losses, all by stoppage and two by knockout. As he is wont to do, Boetsch delivered with his back against the wall and pounded Samman out late in the second round. He’s knocked out nine opponents overall.
"Sapo" came back from his decision loss to Ed Herman with four straight wins, including an upset of Uriah Hall at UFC 187. He then took on the rising Robert Whittaker at UFC 197 and dropped a decision to the Aussie striker. He’s submitted eight opponents and knocked out another four.
We all love Tim Boetsch, but before the Samman fight, he’d lost six of his previous eight and really didn’t deserve the win against C.B. Dollaway in that stretch. Natal, meanwhile, has chugged along with four wins in his last five and has the cardio and kicking prowess to stay away from Boetsch’s sledgehammers.
Boetsch can win with consistent takedowns and ground-and-pound, but Natal’s counter-wrestling is solid and his jiu-jitsu experience could give "The Barbarian" pause.
At the very least, I’ll be rooting for Boetsch with all the rest of you while Natal picks him apart with leg kicks on his way to a decision win.
Prediction: Natal by unanimous decisionComment -
Anyone on Woodley?Comment -
Agree w all but think Miller pulls one outMMA MANIA prelim previews and predicitons.. Part 1 and 2...
155 lbs.: Thiago Alves vs. Jim Miller
Ravaged by injuries, Thiago Alves (21-10) fought just once between 2012 and 2015, winning a decision over Seth Baczynski. He returned in January and knocked out Jordan Mein before suffering a knockout loss of his own to Carlos Condit the following May.
This will be both his Lightweight debut and his first fight in more than 17 months.
Jim Miller (27-8) -- once on the brink of the Top 10 -- suffered a 1-4 stretch from the end of 2014 to the beginning of 2016, the sole win a split decision over Danny Castillo. He’s recently righted the ship somewhat with consecutive victories over Takanori Gomi and Joe Lauzon.
He has submitted 14 opponents as a professional.
If this fight took place about four or five years ago, I’d be all over it. As is, it’s more wince-worthy than drool-worthy. Alves is held together with duct tape and positive thinking at this point, while Miller’s only quality performance in his last seven fights came against the smoking ruin of "Fireball Kid."
That’s not even mentioning the fact that Alves -- whose adversarial relationship with the Welterweight limit is the stuff of legend -- is trying to cut another 15 pounds. Assuming everything works out for him, though, he has the stylistic edge. His wrestling is every bit as good as Miller’s and his overall striking technique outstrips his foe’s. If he can get his dried-out jerky slab of a body to the scale and then to the cage, he takes a competitive decision.
Prediction: Alves via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Belal Muhammad vs. Vicente Luque
Belal Muhammad (10-1) -- fresh off a knockout of Steve Carl for the Titan FC title -- gave Alan Jouban all he could handle in his "Fight of the Night"-winning debut despite losing the decision. "Remember the Name" returned two months later to pound out Augusto Montaño in Hidalgo, Texas, and earn his first UFC victory.
He has knocked out four opponents overall and will give up an inch of height to Luque.
After losing to Hayder Hassan in the climactic fight of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 21 and to Michael Graves in his official Octagon debut, Vicente Luque (10-5-1) proved his mettle with three consecutive stoppage victories. Most recently, he obliterated Hector Urbina in 60 seconds with one of the year’s best one-punch knockouts.
He replaces Lyman Good, who ran afoul of USADA approximately two weeks before fight night.
Luque’s just 24 years old and looks like he could make a real dent in the division, but the style match up isn’t in his favor. Muhammad figures to have a slight edge on the feet and his sturdy counter-wrestling takes Luque’s submission prowess out of the equation. Muhammad also knows how to work the body and wear down opponents, which could pay great dividends considering Luque’s lack of prep time.
The Brazilian is dangerous enough to make Muhammad work for it, but expect the latter to take a clear decision as he takes over down the stretch.
Prediction: Muhammad via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Liz Carmouche vs. Kaitlyn Chookagian
Liz Carmouche (10-5) -- who squared off with Ronda Rousey in the UFC’s first-ever women’s fight -- has gone even (2-2) since falling short in that bout. In her most recent fight, "Girl-Rilla" out-gritted Invicta standout Lauren Murphy to snap a two-fight losing streak.
This will be her first fight in 18 months.
Kaitlyn Chookagian (8-0) joined UFC with two CFFC belts around her waist and a 45-second knockout in her most recent effort. She kept up the momentum with a decision win over Lauren Murphy at UFC 191.
She is three inches taller than Carmouche at 5’9."
Carmouche’s major issue is that, while she possesses one of the division’s best top games, she’s very limited on the feet and doesn’t always set up her takedowns well when she can’t physically overpower her foes. Chookagian may have spent a significant chunk of her career at Flyweight, but she more than held her own against Murphy’s grappling and figures to have the striking edge.
If Carmouche was more consistently effective with her wrestling and wasn’t coming off such a long layoff, she’d have a great shot here. With said issues and Chookagian’s strong recent performance, though, I’m picking her to keep her undefeated record intact.
Prediction: Chookagian via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Frankie Edgar (20-5-1) vs. Jeremy Stephens (25-12)
"The Answer" bounced back from his loss to Jose Aldo by scoring five consecutive wins, including a one-punch knockout of Chad Mendes. This set up an interim title bout with the aforementioned Aldo, who jabbed and countered his way to a unanimous decision at UFC 200. At 5’6", he is three inches shorter than Stephens.
A knockout loss to Yves Edwards, the first such defeat of Stephens’ career, sent him down to featherweight, where he’s gone 5-3. In his last fight, he upset former bantamweight champion Renan Barao in a Fight of the Night-winning performance at Fight Night 88. He has knocked out sixteen opponents overall.
Stephens is in an odd spot where he still clearly hits crazy hard, but hasn’t knocked anyone out with punches since starching Marcus Davis in 2011. The only two stoppages he’s picked up since came via head kick and flying knee, neither of which is likely to land on Edgar.
Without assurance that what few punches he lands on Edgar will be killshots, it’s hard to pick him.
Edgar is almost going to out-land and out-wrestle Stephens and his composure under fire precludes the sort of wild exchanges "Lil’ Heathen" used to pull ahead against Barao. Edgar picks him apart with his customary in-and-out stylings for the decision.
Prediction: Edgar by unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Khabib Nurmagomedov (23-0) vs. Michael Johnson (17-10)
Nurmagomedov opened his 2014 campaign with a career-best win over Rafael Dos Anjos, only to suffer repeated injuries that derailed his momentum. He returned two years later against late replacement Darrell Horcher, whom he destroyed en route to a second-round TKO. He’s 7-0 overall in the UFC, including three stoppages.
"The Menace" saw his unexpected rise through the lightweight ranks hampered by a questionable loss to Beneil Dariush, followed by a much-less-questionable loss to Nate Diaz afterwards. In September, he righted the ship with a brutal knockout of Dustin Poirier in the main event of UFC Fight Night 94. He’s knocked out eight opponents overall.
While his hands have drawn the most attention, Johnson’s takedown defense has been the key to his resurgence. He went from being manhandled by Myles Jury and Reza Madadi to turning aside the likes of Gleison Tibau and Beneil Dariush.
That said, it’s hard to forget that he was an absolute dead fish off of his back last we saw, getting hammered into the dirt every time someone put him there. Nurmagomedov is very, very good at putting people there.
I’m simply not convinced that Johnson can stay on his feet for any length of time. Khabib does the Khabib thing, tossing Johnson around before ultimately pounding him out late.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov by third-round TKO
185 lbs.: Tim Boetsch (19-10) vs. Rafael Natal (21-7-1) "The Barbarian" stepped into the cage against Josh Samman on the heels of three consecutive losses, all by stoppage and two by knockout. As he is wont to do, Boetsch delivered with his back against the wall and pounded Samman out late in the second round. He’s knocked out nine opponents overall.
"Sapo" came back from his decision loss to Ed Herman with four straight wins, including an upset of Uriah Hall at UFC 187. He then took on the rising Robert Whittaker at UFC 197 and dropped a decision to the Aussie striker. He’s submitted eight opponents and knocked out another four.
We all love Tim Boetsch, but before the Samman fight, he’d lost six of his previous eight and really didn’t deserve the win against C.B. Dollaway in that stretch. Natal, meanwhile, has chugged along with four wins in his last five and has the cardio and kicking prowess to stay away from Boetsch’s sledgehammers.
Boetsch can win with consistent takedowns and ground-and-pound, but Natal’s counter-wrestling is solid and his jiu-jitsu experience could give "The Barbarian" pause.
At the very least, I’ll be rooting for Boetsch with all the rest of you while Natal picks him apart with leg kicks on his way to a decision win.
Prediction: Natal by unanimous decisionComment -
I think we're going to see a handful of upsets here. A lot of dogs with legitimate paths to victory.Comment -
Miller's skills looked the best they ever have IMO last few fights .....Comment -
I wouldn't be surprised.. I haven't had much luck in the past with super cards that usually pop up once a year on average.. I'm treading lightly so far.. Every time I load up on a super card I get rocked...
I'm taking my time and really capping each fight.. I know every fighter on this card very well so I don't know how much capping I really have to do..
Just gun shy with this event... Romero is my big play so far.. I'm also pretty sold on Natal beating the smack out of the washed up Tim Boetsch.. I also think Khabib takes it to MJ and out points him as well.Comment -
Jim Miller and Frankie Edgar I wanna be sold on but just not sure??? Both of those guys can lose in their fights I believe...Comment -
- The UFC’s long road to New York culminates with UFC 205 at Madison Square Garden. Go behind the scenes with Eddie Alvarez and Conor McGregor as they prepare to make history in one of three title fights along with Tyron Woodley, Stephen Thompson, Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Karolina Kowalkiewicz.
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Yeah I know Paper and agree..
I think you have to go Edgar and probably by decision.. Lil Heathen Stephens is very hard to finish.. Frankie probably out boxes and or even grounds Stephens round after round to win on points.
Lil Heathen KO power scares me a bit though, Frankie has a good chin but I remember him getting caught and badly rocked in a few fights..
Maybe hedge with Stephens by KO to play it safe, odds on the ko prop are favorable as well.....
1629 Stephens wins by TKO/KO +505
16 wins have come by way of KO in 25 fights for Jeremy. Not likely he wins a decision either against the very active and high paced Frankie Edgar.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jeremy-Stephens-12179
Lil Heathen has some pop....
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M.Johnson - 3.30 55/45
E.Alvarez - 2.40 50/50
Y.Romero - 2.5. 50/50 fight
Its crazy to be on the fav in all of those fights, these are golden opportunity to go for the dog. All favourites facing uphill battles in these fights.
Conor can have a real cardio issue after 7.5 min mark? how will khabib deal with MJ if he cant get him down + hugh reach and speed advantage for MJ? how will chris striking stack up against the romeros striking if wrestling is a wash?Comment -
I think TWood has a chance with his boxing, speed, and wrestling.. I just can't bet against Wonderboy though..
VERY HARD FIGHT TO CALL... I'm on Wonderboy and nervous as shiiiit... Wonderboy for a benny Alex and by KO for me..
If Woodley gets to +200 straight I'll probably hedge and up both bets to make profit either way..$100.00 $158.00 Pending 11/12/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1141 Thompson wins by TKO/KO +158* vs Any other result Comment -
There is no Santa Clause, he didn't exist and never did. - Alvarez.
The Chicago Blackhawks go for 7 straight tonight, I hope they can do it at +115.
Always bet on black.
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Only way I feel good about betting this entire card is to hedge a bunch.. I may be hedging with more then half the fights on this card.. Many fights in my opinion are just really hard to pick and could go either way..
I need insurance betting this event!!!! That will ensure I won't get rocked, it also insures I probably won't win a small fortune with this event either unfortunately..
Better safe then sorry..right?
ABW - Always Be Winning....Comment -
I would be carefull with the stakes on Wonderboy. Probably if he didn't have a decisive win over MacDonald the odds in this fight vs Woodley would be closer to pick em. It was clear MacDonald was not his usual self, had too much respect for Wonderboy. I expect Woodley wil have a better game plan and do better in closing the distance. It's hard to bet against wonderboy but I feel the odds are not high enough for me to risk in this fight. GLComment -
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Isnt that one of thompsons main qualities as a fighter?
You will get very insecure dealing with a guy that throw diff stuff from all angles. Wooddley hasnt showed me anything yet that make me believe he will beat wonder boy over 5 rounds. I think TKO round 1 /round 2 props are good enough to cover upset.
But bisping became champ and trump won the election, as i have stated before 2016 is the most incredible year in terms of schocking upsets. Dont forget that Leicester also won the premier league which is almost impossible to imagine still. Its like bisping wins against romero, jacare, rockhold and weidman consecutively and becomes the goat middleweight.
Additionally, Zahabi said that he thinks that Thompson is the best striker in the world right now, kickboxing, mma etc. Thats pretty sick.
I think Thompson knows very well after seing how woodley rushed in on lawler that they are preparing for eeeeeeeeeeexactly that scenario. And as the smart fighter thompson is, he will counter that by standing on the outside and be very cautious not allowing woodley to cover that distance. Which means thompson will jab woodley from the outside in a boring 5 rounder. Thats the problem with thompsons style..if you stand on the outside and coming in, he hits you. And if youre on the outside, well he loves that then he can pick you apart.The unthinkable would be that woodley would use this scenario to his advantage and kick wonderboys lead leg, going for takedowns and wild hooks in a perfect construct of a game plan. But wonderboy unfortunately for woodley, reads fighters, and finds their blindspot within a round or two. That same ability doesnt woodley have as a striker. He simply isnt that good. A powerful right hand can stop thompson every minute in round 1 and 2, but over the course of 5 round he cant, imo. So the pick is still wonderboy. Dont overthink shit now, its as easy as we first thought.Comment
