UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor (Sat. Nov. 12, 2016) New York, NY

[Thrilla]

- Check out the Top 8 Fighter Finishes from the stars of UFC 205.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Honestly if he cant get the takedown...MJ cruises 30-27 right?....however I consider Thiago Tavares, Healy, RDA, Tibau all pretty solid....and how 1 sided they were...and if you look at MJ wins....all stand up guys....guys that beat him seems to be tricky A and B ground guys IMO....

Re-watched the Tibau fight recently and thought the judging was pretty off there. A lot of people thought Tibau won that one and it was the only instance where Nurmy struggled to get the TD. Fair point about MJ mostly beating stand-up guys though. We'll see how he holds up against an elite wrestler.

[PaperTrail07]

I just don't see Khabib letting him up...minute he gets to the cage and props up he will get drug back down....Feel Khabib should be -400...

That's definitely possible. Khabib probably has the best TDs in MMA. But apart from that, his arsenal of scary weapons is relatively limited. His supreme takedown skills have been enough to win all 23 of his pro fights so far. But aside from RDA, what credible wins over elite competition does he have on his resume? In the event that he can't get the takedown, how do you see this one playing out?

[PaperTrail07]

For sure----I feel if Khabib was more active recently he would be a bigger fav , add that to the KO of Porier...and you get -280 instead....in the last 2 years MJ has really worked on his boxing and REALLY improved..maybe the most improved TUF fighter EVER....but he needs to go back to his roots and touch up his wrestling he believes is good enough....IMO-obviously lol...

Re-watched the Tibau fight recently and thought the judging was pretty off there. A lot of people thought Tibau won that one and it was the only instance where Nurmy struggled to get the TD. Fair point about MJ mostly beating stand-up guys though. We'll see how he holds up against an elite wrestler.

[PaperTrail07]

Khabib decisions are always unanimous too....betting him by unanimous seems appropriate here.....just don't see a line yet...

[PaperTrail07]

Speaking of rewatching fights.....I just rewatched the Spartan win in Dakota on the linekar card.....while many people are on board, I think Alvey puts him to sleep.....sloppy all over but very tough....at -200 all over smiley right??

Re-watched the Tibau fight recently and thought the judging was pretty off there. A lot of people thought Tibau won that one and it was the only instance where Nurmy struggled to get the TD. Fair point about MJ mostly beating stand-up guys though. We'll see how he holds up against an elite wrestler.

[PaperTrail07]

going to rewatch it

Re-watched the Tibau fight recently and thought the judging was pretty off there. A lot of people thought Tibau won that one and it was the only instance where Nurmy struggled to get the TD. Fair point about MJ mostly beating stand-up guys though. We'll see how he holds up against an elite wrestler.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Khabib decisions are always unanimous too....betting him by unanimous seems appropriate here.....just don't see a line yet...

I don't think they'll have a line on 5Ds for unanimous because it's a 3 round fight.

[PaperTrail07]

For sure----so many 3's that need to be 5's am I right? lol

I don't think they'll have a line on 5Ds for unanimous because it's a 3 round fight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Speaking of rewatching fights.....I just rewatched the Spartan win in Dakota on the linekar card.....while many people are on board, I think Alvey puts him to sleep.....sloppy all over but very tough....at -200 all over smiley right??

Going to play props on this one with some hedging. I think Alvey wins it but Nicholson has a path to victory.

[PaperTrail07]

+125 by decision and +225 inside 3

[Hugo de Naranja]

going to rewatch it

Yeah, let me know what your thoughts are after the rewatch.

[PaperTrail07]

Which would be toughness and cardio? bc hi shit was SLOPPY imo.....got rolled until he landed a shot to a glass chin IMO...the altitude could help him---there is that I guess....

Going to play props on this one with some hedging. I think Alvey wins it but Nicholson has a path to victory.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Which would be toughness and cardio? bc hi shit was SLOPPY imo.....got rolled until he landed a shot to a glass chin IMO...the altitude could help him---there is that I guess....

Yup he is sloppy but incredibly tough and he hits hard. Although Alvey is known for his chin, this should be a standup battle with both guys throwing hard shots. Nicholson could catch Alvey early and knock him out.

[PaperTrail07]

Agree....they are very similar but I feel alvey is just more precise, experienced and crisp...

Yup he is sloppy but incredibly tough and he hits hard. Although Alvey is known for his chin, this should be a standup battle with both guys throwing hard shots. Nicholson could catch Alvey early and knock him out.

[PaperTrail07]

You are right.....watching....his short frame and OBVIOUS juice kept him in the fight....closer than I remembered....

[Thrilla]

- UFC lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez hails from Kensington, one of the toughest neighborhoods in Philadelphia.

[JIBBBY]

This got next.. Super card..

Gonna start really tackling this event tomorrow!!!

[PaperTrail07]

All smiles after the W......nice chin on the Spartan but it was how it saw it going....surprised he made it through...

[PaperTrail07]

Was somewhat salty this got cracked...

	11/2/16 2:58pm	$51.00	$977.24	$0.00	Loss	6 Team Parlay
					Win	11/2/16 8:05pm MLB Baseball 901 Chicago Cubs -117* vs Cleveland Indians (K Hendricks - R must Start C Kluber - R must Start)
					Loss	11/5/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Rashid Magomedov -145* vs Beneil Dariush
					Win	11/5/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Erik Perez -185* vs Felipe Arantes
					Win	11/5/16 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1802 Max Griffin -155* vs Erick Montano
					Win	11/5/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2002 Sam Alvey -230* vs Alex Nicholson
					Cancelled	11/4/16 9:30pm Bellator Fighting 3302 Paul Daley -130* vs Derek Anderson

[PaperTrail07]

However I made it up with this..

	11/5/16 11:18pm	$70.00	$959.00	$1,029.00	Win	3 Team Parlay
					Win	11/5/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1001 Tony Ferguson +120* vs Rafael dos Anjos
					Win	11/5/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1101 Diego Sanchez +250* vs Marcin Held
					Win	11/5/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Ricardo Lamas -110* vs Charles Oliveira

Felt like Lamas pulled one out for me

[Hugo de Naranja]

However I made it up with this..

	11/5/16 11:18pm	$70.00	$959.00	$1,029.00	Win	3 Team Parlay
					Win	11/5/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1001 Tony Ferguson +120* vs Rafael dos Anjos
					Win	11/5/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1101 Diego Sanchez +250* vs Marcin Held
					Win	11/5/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Ricardo Lamas -110* vs Charles Oliveira

Felt like Lamas pulled one out for me

He was nearly subbed early but came back to get the win here.

[JIBBBY]

^^ Paper you make me want to play parlays with that win... I got away from them in UFC events lately.. I simply forgot to try a few this last go around..

[PaperTrail07]

totally and honestly---I THOUGHT......it wasnt looking great for lamas....and BOOM....locks it up lol....

He was nearly subbed early but came back to get the win here.

[PaperTrail07]

Yeah , always have to have a few lotto tickets in the air.....

^^ Paper you make me want to play parlays with that win... I got away from them in UFC events lately.. I simply forgot to try a few this last go around..

[Thrilla]

- SBR Videos host Peter Loshak discusses the Main Card from a betting and odds perspective with MMA analyst Andreas Hale.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Three Main Card fighters who have good wrestling credentials but super overrated wrestling in the cage (in order of most overrated)
1. Yoel Romero
2. Tyron Woodley
3. Eddie Alvarez

[JIBBBY]

Three Main Card fighters who have good wrestling credentials but super overrated wrestling in the cage (in order of most overrated)
1. Yoel Romero
2. Tyron Woodley
3. Eddie Alvarez

Eddie Alvarez never uses his wrestling in fights.. We don't even know if he has double or single in his bag of tricks these days?..

I can't ever remember his shooting for double in a fight? Would be well served if he does take down McGregor and keep him there...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Eddie Alvarez never uses his wrestling in fights.. We don't even know if he has double or single in his bag of tricks these days?..

I can't ever remember his shooting for double in a fight? Would be well served if he does take down McGregor and keep him there...

He does have some wrestling tools but explosive doubles are not his go to tools. Eddie likes to stand-and-bang and when he does wrestle it's mostly grinding against the cage. He could win using this gameplan but I'm sick of analysts being like "oh the wrestler Alvarez will just spam takedowns as usual and use GnP to get the win" as that's not really his style.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Eddie Alvarez never uses his wrestling in fights.. We don't even know if he has double or single in his bag of tricks these days?..

I can't ever remember his shooting for double in a fight? Would be well served if he does take down McGregor and keep him there...

He did shoot a takedown against RDA and was immediately stuffed and put in a front choke, where he escaped before eating a flush knee to the dome.

[PaperTrail07]

Honestly I just think its situational......people laughed at me when I said Roy would use the ground game VS the black beast.....I honestly believe when Eddie Fights McG that McG will dance a few off but eventually Eddie will land one...its the advantage he has --that will be used..as for Romero...he has faced amazing wrestlers (kennedy-souza) and also is getting the W so maybe he has not needed to go there and its not his advantage if the other fighter has that "particular set of skills" as well.....right ? maybe?.....

Three Main Card fighters who have good wrestling credentials but super overrated wrestling in the cage (in order of most overrated)
1. Yoel Romero
2. Tyron Woodley
3. Eddie Alvarez

[PaperTrail07]

Alvarez round 1+2 are +1100 ish.....me likey lol...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Honestly I just think its situational......people laughed at me when I said Roy would use the ground game VS the black beast.....I honestly believe when Eddie Fights McG that McG will dance a few off but eventually Eddie will land one...its the advantage he has --that will be used..as for Romero...he has faced amazing wrestlers (kennedy-souza) and also is getting the W so maybe he has not needed to go there and its not his advantage if the other fighter has that "particular set of skills" as well.....right ? maybe?.....

Maybe...
But I'd say in general that fighters develop unique styles that they tend to default to despite developing new skills throughout their careers.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Alvarez round 1+2 are +1100 ish.....me likey lol...

Yeah those are good bets at these new odds. I was on Alvarez R3-5 and Decision as a hedge but had to play line movement and add these at this price.

[JIBBBY]

McGregor ITD for me since it's a 5 rounder.... Not happening for Eddie in this fight fellas IMO.... Sorry..

I'll be hitting this again and again as we get closer to fight time.. May max bet it..

$103.00

$100.00

Pending

11/12/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1009 McGregor wins inside distance -103* vs Not McGregor inside distance