Future Fights Thread

**firekillex** · 02-14-18, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by Richard Clock

Interesting you say that because I think the margin for error is much smaller in the lighter weight classes. How many of the high-level bantamweight/flyweight fights end up in a close decision? That Mighty Mouse is not only able to win so consistently but do so in convincing and spectacular fashion is remarkable.

the margin of error is the largest in the smaller weight classes... never heard any Mixed Martial Artist disagree with that tbh.... the fact he finishes people now is important thats a solid debate, but the higher weight classes have a much smaller margin of error because theyre literally 50+lbs or more and have much more power and one punch could literally end the fight at any moment. Thats why imo Jon Jones is by far the best P4P ever if you dont take in account all his penetrate ups... plus his resume of victories absolutely dominates Mighty Mouses, but p4p is very subjective you can make a case for a few guys and cant really be wrong

**Thrilla** · 02-21-18, 11:38 AM

UFC Connected episode 1.

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**firekillex** · 02-23-18, 11:18 AM

kevin lee vs edson barboza in the works....
thats a wild fight... lean kevin lee in a 3 rounder, barboza in a 5 rounder

**PaperTrail07** · 02-23-18, 01:17 PM

Yeah I agree....but after that Khabib fight...Lee's wrectling may not works as well...BUT he wont leave RNC's on the table like Khabib....he was toying w him...

Originally posted by firekillex

kevin lee vs edson barboza in the works....
thats a wild fight... lean kevin lee in a 3 rounder, barboza in a 5 rounder

**firekillex** · 02-23-18, 01:49 PM

3 rounder i could see Lee grinding out a close decision but people will be sleeping on Barbosa after getting mauled by Khabib... Barbosa is still a very elite striker , Kevin Lee is super young and improving rapidly so its hard to gauge where hell be at each fight though and last fight he had staph and looked good.... wonder if this will be a 5 rounder or not

**PaperTrail07** · 02-23-18, 03:04 PM

Those 2 names....I don't see why not....fight night...otherwise it would add to a VERY stacked card...

Originally posted by firekillex

3 rounder i could see Lee grinding out a close decision but people will be sleeping on Barbosa after getting mauled by Khabib... Barbosa is still a very elite striker , Kevin Lee is super young and improving rapidly so its hard to gauge where hell be at each fight though and last fight he had staph and looked good.... wonder if this will be a 5 rounder or not

**Richard Clock** · 02-23-18, 04:56 PM

I feel really good about a multiple unit bet on Lee if this line is close to a pick em', even in a 5 rounder

**firekillex** · 02-23-18, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by Richard Clock

I feel really good about a multiple unit bet on Lee if this line is close to a pick em', even in a 5 rounder

really depends how much hes improved... his coach dying and all the stress hes been under , moving camps , taking care of his family , the weight cut ... could take a lot out of a guy.... Barboza gonna be super hungry to show he belongs after that khabib ass whoopin..... very close fight no doubt though nobody will get an easy win in this one..... the line will definitely be close to a pick em i think

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-23-18, 08:11 PM

I think I'll be on Barboza here.

**firekillex** · 02-23-18, 08:21 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I think I'll be on Barboza here.

at +135 or more ill be on Barboza

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-25-18, 03:31 AM

2018 UFC Results
UFC Fight Night 124: Stephens vs. Choi = +6.015u
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou = +11.12u
UFC on Fox 27: Jacare vs. Brunson II = +8.233u
UFC Fight Night 125: Machida vs. Anders = +24.43u
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold = -6.375u
UFC Fight Night 126: Cowboy vs. Medeiros = +21.402u
UFC on Fox 28: Emmett vs. Stephens = +37.365u
Multi-Event Parlays = +6.6u

Total 2018 UFC Profit/Loss: +108.79u

All tracked and posted on SBR before the fights start.

**Shagdogy** · 02-25-18, 10:26 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

2018 UFC Results
UFC Fight Night 124: Stephens vs. Choi = +6.015u
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou = +11.12u
UFC on Fox 27: Jacare vs. Brunson II = +8.233u
UFC Fight Night 125: Machida vs. Anders = +24.43u
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold = -6.375u
UFC Fight Night 126: Cowboy vs. Medeiros = +21.402u
UFC on Fox 28: Emmett vs. Stephens = +37.365u
Multi-Event Parlays = +6.6u

Total 2018 UFC Profit/Loss: +108.79u

All tracked and posted on SBR before the fights start.

Hugo, you deserve every single bit of credit and then some. Your work is paying off in an insane way. I would say "keep it up" but I'm not even sure that's possible! If anyone can pull it off, its you.

To everyone else around here... we've got a lot of good cappers here right now as TPow pointed out. I'm happy to even be in the middle of this pack. Keep working at it. I know I need to. And if you ever find yourself wondering "damn why can't I hit like Hugo all the time?" as I wonder sometimes, just know that this dude is different. You can prob tell from the forum and even more so if you've ever had a conversation with him that Hugo is a freaking encyclopedia. I swear Hugo, your memory is like a impenetrable vault. There's some innate ability that he has that a number of us can't replicate no matter how hard we tape study. So don't get discouraged... just know that this guy has something extra.

Now on to the next one!

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-25-18, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Hugo, you deserve every single bit of credit and then some. Your work is paying off in an insane way. I would say "keep it up" but I'm not even sure that's possible! If anyone can pull it off, its you.

To everyone else around here... we've got a lot of good cappers here right now as TPow pointed out. I'm happy to even be in the middle of this pack. Keep working at it. I know I need to. And if you ever find yourself wondering "damn why can't I hit like Hugo all the time?" as I wonder sometimes, just know that this dude is different. You can prob tell from the forum and even more so if you've ever had a conversation with him that Hugo is a freaking encyclopedia. I swear Hugo, your memory is like a impenetrable vault. There's some innate ability that he has that a number of us can't replicate no matter how hard we tape study. So don't get discouraged... just know that this guy has something extra.

Now on to the next one!

Thanks so much Shaggy! Keep up the good work yourself my friend!

**Thrilla** · 02-25-18, 07:54 PM

**turbozed** · 02-25-18, 09:03 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

2018 UFC Results
UFC Fight Night 124: Stephens vs. Choi = +6.015u
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou = +11.12u
UFC on Fox 27: Jacare vs. Brunson II = +8.233u
UFC Fight Night 125: Machida vs. Anders = +24.43u
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold = -6.375u
UFC Fight Night 126: Cowboy vs. Medeiros = +21.402u
UFC on Fox 28: Emmett vs. Stephens = +37.365u
Multi-Event Parlays = +6.6u

Total 2018 UFC Profit/Loss: +108.79u

All tracked and posted on SBR before the fights start.

It's not even two months and you've crossed the 100 unit mark. That's just madness!

Have you been increasing your bet size over time, or staying the course for now?

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-25-18, 11:55 PM

Originally posted by turbozed

It's not even two months and you've crossed the 100 unit mark. That's just madness!

Have you been increasing your bet size over time, or staying the course for now?

Staying the course for now.

**firekillex** · 02-26-18, 01:43 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Staying the course for now.

1 unit should be 1-3% of your total bank roll... this should always change when your bankroll keeps going up
i typically go 2% bankroll per unit in the middle range of conservative and aggressive...
easy to calculate it as well everytime

GL on a solid 2018 for everybody here

**Hugo de Naranja** · 02-26-18, 01:44 AM

Originally posted by firekillex

1 unit should be 1-3% of your total bank roll... this should always change when your bankroll keeps going up
i typically go 2% bankroll per unit in the middle range of conservative and aggressive...
easy to calculate it as well everytime

Might re-evaluate midyear. We'll see how the results come in.

**Shagdogy** · 02-26-18, 02:58 AM

Originally posted by firekillex

1 unit should be 1-3% of your total bank roll... this should always change when your bankroll keeps going up
i typically go 2% bankroll per unit in the middle range of conservative and aggressive...
easy to calculate it as well everytime

GL on a solid 2018 for everybody here

I disagree that you should change unit size with every win/loss. I'd evaluate every 6mo to a year.

I agree though that it should be between 1-3% of bankroll, and I also think there should be a max amount you'd bet regardless of your confidence level. In my case, I don't bet over 5u on any single bet. That would be my "max" play. I admit I'm a conservative gambler.

**Thrilla** · 02-27-18, 03:01 AM

Namajunas +150. This will get bet down close to pickem. Trade it cause I think the boogiewoman will get her revenge.

**firekillex** · 02-28-18, 04:25 PM

jimmie rivera vs marlon moraes has been announced finally
gonna be lots of beef in this one

**PaperTrail07** · 03-02-18, 04:15 PM

I find it funny that the guy I was saying OMALLEY needed to fight is fighting the exact guy he just BEAT lol....we all know
Duquesnoy > OMALLEY

**PaperTrail07** · 03-02-18, 04:16 PM

OMALLEY is on the very edge of the skill it takes to be in the UFC>.....will need selevtive fights like BRUCE leerOY.......who I swear either blows down w dana white or has diry on him or something lol..

**Shagdogy** · 03-02-18, 05:53 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

OMALLEY is on the very edge of the skill it takes to be in the UFC>.....will need selevtive fights like BRUCE leerOY.......who I swear either blows down w dana white or has diry on him or something lol..

Paper you hate on O'Malley so hard. He's not as bad as you say. Not saying he's future champ but he's earned the right to be in the UFC. His comeback after round 2 against Ware, a guy who applied a ton of pressure and has an iron chin, shows that he may have some grit too. I do think that he has a lot to prove when he goes up against a strong, pressure wrestler.

**Richard Clock** · 03-02-18, 07:51 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

Paper you hate on O'Malley so hard. He's not as bad as you say. Not saying he's future champ but he's earned the right to be in the UFC. His comeback after round 2 against Ware, a guy who applied a ton of pressure and has an iron chin, shows that he may have some grit too. I do think that he has a lot to prove when he goes up against a strong, pressure wrestler.

The thing I found so impressive about O'Malley watching his last fight was his composure. O'Malley almost definitely suffered an adrenaline dump in the second round after being so pumped up in the first, but he never panicked with a desperate takedown attempt or staying glued against the cage.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-03-18, 02:26 PM

KSW 42: Khalidov vs. Narkun

Khalidov (-130) 3.25u to win 2.5u

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-03-18, 06:23 PM

Khalidov absolutely dominated before getting caught by a Triangle out of nowhere. Solid comeback from Narkun.

**Slevin07** · 03-04-18, 12:53 PM

Ortega vs Max. Both got good chins, fight iq and size for division. Max has good cardio, Ortega with subs. Ortega is improving stand up every fight it seems. Tough fight to call at first glance. Max should open as fav.

Nunes vs Cyborg. Has cyborg had her chin tested before? I think Valentina beat Nunes, and would expect Cyborg to do the same but more dominant.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-04-18, 02:00 PM

2018 UFC Results
UFC Fight Night 124: Stephens vs. Choi = +6.015u
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou = +11.12u
UFC on Fox 27: Jacare vs. Brunson II = +8.233u
UFC Fight Night 125: Machida vs. Anders = +24.43u
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold = -6.375u
UFC Fight Night 126: Cowboy vs. Medeiros = +21.402u
UFC on Fox 28: Emmett vs. Stephens = +37.365u
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya = +16.67u
Multi-Event Parlays = +6.6u

Total 2018 UFC Profit/Loss: +125.46u

**Richard Clock** · 03-04-18, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

2018 UFC Results
UFC Fight Night 124: Stephens vs. Choi = +6.015u
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou = +11.12u
UFC on Fox 27: Jacare vs. Brunson II = +8.233u
UFC Fight Night 125: Machida vs. Anders = +24.43u
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold = -6.375u
UFC Fight Night 126: Cowboy vs. Medeiros = +21.402u
UFC on Fox 28: Emmett vs. Stephens = +37.365u
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya = +16.67u
Multi-Event Parlays = +6.6u

Total 2018 UFC Profit/Loss: +125.46u

And to think you almost hit on Munhoz too! Unreal run

**PaperTrail07** · 03-05-18, 01:52 PM

Crushed this event as well Arlovski was the icing on the caKE

**strictlypaypal** · 03-08-18, 06:07 PM

Hugo what are your thoughts on Lee (-120) vs Barboza (-110)?

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-08-18, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by strictlypaypal

Hugo what are your thoughts on Lee (-120) vs Barboza (-110)?

Lean Barboza for sure. He's got a big striking advantage and I'm not convinced Lee will have as much success wrestling as Khabib did.

**Richard Clock** · 03-09-18, 09:16 AM

At what point do we start to consider Belfort at dog odds against Machida? I'm not sure there is that much of a gap between them.

**Richard Clock** · 03-09-18, 09:31 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Lean Barboza for sure. He's got a big striking advantage and I'm not convinced Lee will have as much success wrestling as Khabib did.

After giving it some thought, I tend to think this line is about where it should be. A little more film-watching should help crystallize things. Both guys have similarly good resumes, but I give Lee the edge for his more impressive recent wins. Lee is younger, a little less worn-in (Barboza has really been through the ringer in this division) and should have the durability/cardio advantage. I think Lee should be able to make this fight ugly and wear down Barboza by initiating grappling exchanges, especially in the clinch. If Lee makes it to plus odds, I will probably put in a unit bet.