UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley (July 30, 2016)

[JIBBBY]

Not sure if this was mentioned earlier in the thread.. I think it was and I'm too lazy to look... Krylov wins by sub is at +385 has value for sure....

Ed Herman could get rocked standing and then sub'd out on the ground, could see him get taken down and give up his back at some point and sub'd out that way as well.

Last 3 wins are by sub (RNC)..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Nikita-Krylov-110937

[Jarman]

Not sure if it's okay to post this type of thing in here...if it isn't please let me know and I won't do it again.

I am looking to sell my UFC dvd collection. All dvds play great and are in excellent condition. My collection is comprised of all UFC events from UFC 47 through UFC 172 (over 100 dvds in total). More than half of the discs come with a bonus disc featuring behind the scenes exclusives. Message me if you're interested and we can work something out.

Thanks!

[Ty$]

MMAFighting has these dogs winning KK, Short Fuse and Rivera.

[Thor4140]

Be lucky if this card gets 300,000 buys. To me it is awful now that the uncle creepy fight is out. I don't see anything i like besides the main event. On to 202 which i will be going to and was a solid card until Dana took off one of the big fights and now this card, with one injury, will suck like the one tonight.

[KingHawkins]

WSOF tonight also. Anyone have any picks there? I kind of like Lance Palmer to avenge his loss. And Josh Hill at around 3 to 1 should give Marlon Moraes a hell of a battle.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not sure if this was mentioned earlier in the thread.. I think it was and I'm too lazy to look... Krylov wins by sub is at +385 has value for sure....

Ed Herman could get rocked standing and then sub'd out on the ground, could see him get taken down and give up his back at some point and sub'd out that way as well.

Last 3 wins are by sub (RNC)..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Nikita-Krylov-110937

Yup. Got this at a worse price earlier but I'm going to add a bit more now. Thanks for the suggestion

[Hugo de Naranja]

WSOF tonight also. Anyone have any picks there? I kind of like Lance Palmer to avenge his loss. And Josh Hill at around 3 to 1 should give Marlon Moraes a hell of a battle.

Moraes is a penetrating beast. Hill is good too but I'd be pretty surprised if he won this one.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like it... Rivera has alot of KO wins on his record.. If it goes the distance which it very well could no action..

Decent bet at those odds.. I'll try it...... Thanks Hugo good eye...

I think Rivera is more likely to get a finish and more likely to lose a decision so it's worth a stab at +odds

[Thrilla]

Woodley has a great chance to finish in round 1 or 2, but he's an almost completely one handed fighter. Strikes with his right hand, and does not really have a jab. Rarely if even throws in combination. He does have crazy knockout power though, and Lawler is southpaw, so the path of his right will likely become more clear.
He's a very explosive wrestler but Lawlers TDD is some of the most technical in the division, and he's very very hard to control when you get him down there, and he attacks very well from different scrambling positions. I expect this to mostly take place on the feet.
Lawler will show you a lot of different looks on the feet, and it seems that when Woodley is pressured, and has someone who's hard to figure out for him, and who he can't just hit with his right hand counter over and over, he will go into a defensive shell, and just cover up and back up on the cage.. This will be terrible against Lawler. Even though he's gotten better at switching the double threat of his shot and his right hand up. In theory, Robbie should figure this out quickly and pick Woodley apart.
But there's a big if, his durability with all the brutal wars, he's gotten hurt a lot lately, although he's super hard to put away. We know hes super technical and defensively sound on the feet, but his fights just has me worried lately.. His total lack of a jab in the Condit fight, taking the middle rounds off in every single fight lately.
Obviously Woodley should have the worse cardio, but this is not a certainty, if Robbie doesn't put the pace on him, and work the body like he did against Hendricks for example. If we get just-throwing-huge-bombs-sprotically Lawler like against Condiut, it could end badly for him.

Woodley rd 1-2, Lawler 4-5, fight ends tko -140. I will see where the line goes from there.

According to Dan Hardy Woodley has more trouble landing his right hook vs southpaws. He has to use his right jab instead but this is not natural for Woodley.

[Rich Benjamins]

MMAFighting has these dogs winning KK, Short Fuse and Rivera.

I can understand KK and Rivera. But I don't get the logic why so many are betting on Herman. Krylov beats him in every area, except maybe takedowns and dirty boxing/knees. If it goes to the matt, Krylov is great at scrambling. The fact that so many are taking Herman makes me think my bet might be no good, because whenever you're really confident about a bet, that's often when you're wrong because you don't see the whole picture.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I can understand KK and Rivera. But I don't get the logic why so many are betting on Herman. Krylov beats him in every area, except maybe takedowns and dirty boxing/knees. If it goes to the matt, Krylov is great at scrambling. The fact that so many are taking Herman makes me think my bet might be no good, because whenever you're really confident about a bet, that's often when you're wrong because you don't see the whole picture.

I think Krylov wins this handily. Herman over the hill and looked terrible at weigh-ins.

[ufcfan2016]

I can understand KK and Rivera. But I don't get the logic why so many are betting on Herman. Krylov beats him in every area, except maybe takedowns and dirty boxing/knees. If it goes to the matt, Krylov is great at scrambling. The fact that so many are taking Herman makes me think my bet might be no good, because whenever you're really confident about a bet, that's often when you're wrong because you don't see the whole picture.

people are taking herman because hes +190/200 right now, you bet for value..not lay crazy juice on a guy whos still green. some value on herman just like you mentioned with the dirty boxing and knees. i still think krylov has questional cardio too, i will also be taking herman and there a few other underdogs on the card

[Hugo de Naranja]

people are taking herman because hes +190/200 right now, you bet for value..not lay crazy juice on a guy whos still green. some value on herman just like you mentioned with the dirty boxing and knees. i still think krylov has questional cardio too, i will also be taking herman and there a few other underdogs on the card

Who you got tonight?

[Thrilla]

Lawler is warrior but he's very beatable.. He has been on the verge of losing just about every fight he is in lately.. His luck will run out against Twood.. I'm a fan of Ruthless Robbie, but I had to bet against him in this match up.. Twood too fast and athletic for him.. Good chance Twood stops Ruthless Robbie in this fight..

Trying this to go along with my straight play..

$100.00

$229.00

Pending

7/30/16 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1005 Woodley wins inside distance +229* vs Not Woodley inside distance

UFC title Belts are flipping over like hot cakes on the griddle these days.. Here comes another changing of the guard....

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[JIBBBY]

^^ I like the prop talk in that last vid with nick kalikas even though I don't agree with some of their calls.. I wouldn't mind jumping in on that conversation and adding to what they are saying.

Their prop talk is limited to KO,SUB and O/U prop playing.. No mention of round bets or other abstract props.. Rookies...

I do agree with their over play in the Brown/Ellenberger fight as that probably goes over 1.5 at -120.. Odds seem reasonable for that play also..

UFC 201 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Phillips Arena - Atlanta, Georgia - PPV

Sat 7/30		1201 Jake Ellenberger		+215	o1½ -120
11:00PM		1202 Matt Brown		-255	u1½ +100

[Thor4140]

Woodley has a great chance to finish in round 1 or 2, but he's an almost completely one handed fighter. Strikes with his right hand, and does not really have a jab. Rarely if even throws in combination. He does have crazy knockout power though, and Lawler is southpaw, so the path of his right will likely become more clear.
He's a very explosive wrestler but Lawlers TDD is some of the most technical in the division, and he's very very hard to control when you get him down there, and he attacks very well from different scrambling positions. I expect this to mostly take place on the feet.
Lawler will show you a lot of different looks on the feet, and it seems that when Woodley is pressured, and has someone who's hard to figure out for him, and who he can't just hit with his right hand counter over and over, he will go into a defensive shell, and just cover up and back up on the cage.. This will be terrible against Lawler. Even though he's gotten better at switching the double threat of his shot and his right hand up. In theory, Robbie should figure this out quickly and pick Woodley apart.
But there's a big if, his durability with all the brutal wars, he's gotten hurt a lot lately, although he's super hard to put away. We know hes super technical and defensively sound on the feet, but his fights just has me worried lately.. His total lack of a jab in the Condit fight, taking the middle rounds off in every single fight lately.
Obviously Woodley should have the worse cardio, but this is not a certainty, if Robbie doesn't put the pace on him, and work the body like he did against Hendricks for example. If we get just-throwing-huge-bombs-sprotically Lawler like against Condiut, it could end badly for him.

Woodley rd 1-2, Lawler 4-5, fight ends tko -140. I will see where the line goes from there.

Always enjoy reading your post Miri. Seems we are getting a handful of champions that have lots of doubts behind them. Robbie's doubts keep me from betting him. He has improved a lot but i always feel he can get beat every fight. Same with Mesha, (done) Bisping, Eddie. I did think Luke would hold it for awhile but that blew up in his face.

[HurlSweatPants]

Brown and Rose are losing steam. I know that everyone is all over KK but I still think Rose gets the W here. Not sure why the Brown line is so low from when it came out, I thought after the weigh ins he would be steady or rise. They look like they are fighting in two different weight classes.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Brown and Rose are losing steam. I know that everyone is all over KK but I still think Rose gets the W here. Not sure why the Brown line is so low from when it came out, I thought after the weigh ins he would be steady or rise. They look like they are fighting in two different weight classes.

Any plays for tonight Hurl?

[HurlSweatPants]

Any plays for tonight Hurl?

Rose/KK over 2.5 with Brown parlay 3X
Graves by dec .5 unit
Rose by sub .5 unit to hedge the over.

Still waiting to pull the trigger on Lawler but will be doing that soon.
Might put a .5 unit on Benoit if I can get it better than +105, not looking good atm.
Looking at Brown in a parlay with Graves and RL.

Waiting the lines out, things are almost where I want them to be, went ahead and grabbed MB and the Rose over at the lowest line I have seen.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Rose/KK over 2.5 with Brown parlay 3X
Graves by dec .5 unit
Rose by sub .5 unit to hedge the over.

Still waiting to pull the trigger on Lawler but will be doing that soon.
Might put a .5 unit on Benoit if I can get it better than +105, not looking good atm.
Looking at Brown in a parlay with Graves and RL.

Waiting the lines out, things are almost where I want them to be, went ahead and grabbed MB and the Rose over at the lowest line I have seen.

Awesome, I'm on a lot of the same ones! Hoping Graves can finish Velickovic

[JIBBBY]

^ Yep Hurl I also hit Graves by decision also just because of his wrestling.. I wish the odds were a little better though but I like our chances...

There is chance that Graves can finish like Hugo says but after looking it all over the only bet for odds that I could find and live with is this below, so I grabbed it...

$100.00

$102.00

Pending

7/30/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1911 Graves wins by 3 round decision +102* vs Not Graves by 3 round decision

[HurlSweatPants]

Awesome, I'm on a lot of the same ones! Hoping Graves can finish Velickovic

Not I! Although if I include him in a parlay I am going to lay the juice so I might be ok with it. Kind of hoping he controls him on the ground and wins a boring fight after 3 rounds. He looked good at weigh ins, I know he has finished a good percentage of his last fights so the numbers point to it going under, but I am on the other side. GL with your picks my man, let it be another profitable night, and hope that we cash early.

I should take your picks when it comes to the ladies, I am always on the other side, and always get my ass handed to me. Good thing I had a bigger play of the over on the Holm fight so her losing only messed with my small parlay.

[HurlSweatPants]

^ Yep Hurl I also hit Graves by decision also just because of his wrestling.. I wish the odds were a little better though but I like our chances...

There is chance that Graves can finish like Hugo says but after looking it all over the only bet for odds that I could find and live with is this below, so I grabbed it...

$100.00

$102.00

Pending

7/30/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1911 Graves wins by 3 round decision +102* vs Not Graves by 3 round decision

Yeah I pretty much got the same line, +103. Here's to hoping it cashes!

I still think I am going to parlay him with Brown so any result besides an L works for me.

[KingHawkins]

Damien Brown -115, Herman/Krylov O 1.5 +110, Matt Brown -280, Grabowski/Hamilton O 1.5 -140, Velickovich/Graves O 2.5 -225, Lawler/TWood O 2.5 -165, ROSE -185

I also have Tyrone at +175 for a decent sized wager. I had been planning to buy off of it and free-roll for 35 cents or so, but thinking I may let some or all of it ride.

Rose going to be my biggest bet of the card.

[Heyeverybody99]

Rose + Lawler is lock fukkin city gents. All in

[JIBBBY]

OK first fight up - I'm also liking and going with Damien Brown straight just like KingHawkins and feel pretty good about it.. Couldn't sniff out a prop to play though.. Too many ways this fight could end...

I haven't had very good starts lately to these UFC cards so tail with caution. I typically pick up steam as the card goes.. I am hoping to get off to a better start this go around!!!!..

Even betting a bit larger then the normal $100.00 wager amount with this early prelim fight...

$230.00

$200.00

Pending

7/30/16 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2102 Damien Brown -115* vs Cesar Arzamendia

Cesar
Arzamendia
"Goku"
vs
Damien
Brown
"Beatdown"

PARAGUAY
Country
AUSTRAILIA

7-3-0
Record
15-9-0

14%
KO/TKO
13%

57%
SUB
53%

0%
DEC
33%

71 in
Height
70 in

155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs

71 in
Reach
68 in

42 in
Leg Reach
42 in

[ufcfan2016]

^ Yep Hurl I also hit Graves by decision also just because of his wrestling.. I wish the odds were a little better though but I like our chances...

There is chance that Graves can finish like Hugo says but after looking it all over the only bet for odds that I could find and live with is this below, so I grabbed it...

$100.00

$102.00

Pending

7/30/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1911 Graves wins by 3 round decision +102* vs Not Graves by 3 round decision

seems decent be careful could end inside the distance with a sub

[ufcfan2016]

Who you got tonight?

im taking herman but will post other plays soon,

probably be taking a few -200's -300's in parlays

100% going to put lawler/brown in a parlay might add an extra

[KingHawkins]

I like it Jibby!!!!!!!!! Let's start off the event up $$$$. I have him as the last leg in a few smaller parlays, gonna hit him straight here for another buckfifty or so.
That YouTube video gives me faith in Damien. I usually don't put trust people with that first name, but since this is fighting, it seems like a great spot to make an exception.

Best of luck to you and everyone else on the whole card.
Even though lots of us in here will be on different sides of different fights, hopefully in a perfect world, everyone can end up ahead by the end of the night, and we can all beat the bookies for some $$$$, get paid in full, and do the same thing next event.

[JIBBBY]

seems decent be careful could end inside the distance with a sub

That's why I only bet a $100.00 on this fight and didn't load up and bet more..

Not super confident UFCfan but rolling the dice that it goes the full 3 via the Graves lay and pray... We'll see????

[KingHawkins]

Any chance that anyone has Fury's Fight Picks. The guy is the best that I know of. Similar to not trusting Damian/Damien's, I don't pay touts. But I sure as hell would buy beers for anyone who had his picks to share.

[Ty$]

Any chance that anyone has Fury's Fight Picks. The guy is the best that I know of. Similar to not trusting Damian/Damien's, I don't pay touts. But I sure as hell would buy beers for anyone who had his picks to share.

Why do you think he's the best??? I've followed him on FB for awhile and seems to be wrong In fights that could have made him tons. He's another know it all to me. Won't even comment back ever either. Have fun.

[KingHawkins]

Why do you think he's the best??? I've followed him on FB for awhile and seems to be wrong In fights that could have made him tons. He's another know it all to me. Won't even comment back ever either. Have fun.

Because he is documented and he wins. Can you name someone who is documented and does better?
And do you really think he gains anything by replying back to trolls?
And if you hook me up with his picks, I will def. have more fun. They're only $50. Honestly, I am betting more than 40x that, but penetrate touts I don't budge. Thanks.

[JIBBBY]

Any chance that anyone has Fury's Fight Picks. The guy is the best that I know of. Similar to not trusting Damian/Damien's, I don't pay touts. But I sure as hell would buy beers for anyone who had his picks to share.

How do you know if Fury is nailing his picks lately if you didn't pay to play and see them? Does he post his winning percentages or something after?

I always thought the guy sucked and I never tracked him?

Everyone use to rip on this guy for his picks in years past on this forum.. Didn't he live in the basement of him moms house as well or something? Nunyabidness use to really hammer that guy if I'm not mistaken..