UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley (July 30, 2016)

[JIBBBY]

^^^^



If Rory would have sat down on his punches rather then throw weak flurries he would have put away Ruthless Robbie as well.. Instead Robbie busted his nose late and it was game over. Rory doesn't have that killer instinct as he's been getting his ass beat regularly now.. Johny Hendricks lost his mojo as well..

Now Ruthless Robbie if fighting a hungry fighter in Twood.. Explosive and dangerous.. Let's see what happens!!!!

[firekillex]

^^^^



If Rory would have sat down on his punches rather then throw weak flurries he would have put away Ruthless Robbie as well.. Instead Robbie busted his nose late and it was game over. Rory doesn't have that killer instinct as he's been getting his ass beat regularly now.. Johny Hendricks lost his mojo as well..

Now Ruthless Robbie if fighting a hungry fighter in Twood.. Explosive and dangerous.. Let's see what happens!!!!

Well you completely lost me now lol
just a fight before that he tkod safedine in the 3rd aka definition of killer instinct when you're up 2-0 but still go to finish .... He was saving his gas tank , you can't throw 100% power on lawler and open yourself up check a gif of the Melvin manhoef fight and come back to me sir , your Tyron Woodley bet has greatly clouded your judgement haha . Rory lost to lawler the champ and wonderboy arguably the soon to be champ nothing wrong with that.. He starched Woodley to btw , I don't even think he had a scratch on his face after that fight

[HurlSweatPants]

Reduced are upon 5D

Lawler at -140.
Rose-192.
Immortal at -245

[HurlSweatPants]

I want Benoit at +110 so I can make a small play. The over 2.5 for Rose v KK has the biggest juice for the card so far in regards to the O/U. Brown has the biggest ML at -245.

[lokihayze]

Pat berry is out of thug rose's corner this fight boys.
This is going to be a tough fight for her and he's staying at home.
To me that spells major trouble.
A break up or huge fight during fight week can't be good on rose's state of mind.
Karolina is Looking mighty attractive right now.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Pat berry is out of thug rose's corner this fight boys.
This is going to be a tough fight for her and he's staying at home.
To me that spells major trouble.
A break up or huge fight during fight week can't be good on rose's state of mind.
Karolina is Looking mighty attractive right now.

Value is on KK all day

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 201 Picks:
Damien Brown Rd 2 Submission
Michael Graves Unanimous Decision
Wilson Reis Unanimous Decision
Anthony Hamilton Unanimous Decision
Ross Pearson Split Decision
Nikita Krylov Rd 1 Submission
Ryan Benoit Rd 2 TKO
Erik Perez Unanimous Decision
Matt Brown Rd 2 KO
Karolina Kowalkiewicz Unanimous Decision
Robbie Lawler Rd 4 TKO

[Hugo de Naranja]

Fight #1: Arzamendia vs. Brown
No Play

Fight #2: Graves vs. Velickovic
Graves (-175) 3.5u to win 2u
Graves -3.5 (+125) 1u
Graves ITD (+250) .25u
Graves Submission (+550) .25u

Fight #3: Reis vs. Sandoval
Reis Decision (+145) .5u

Fight #4: Grabowski vs. Hamilton
No Play

Fight #5: Pearson vs. Masvidal
Pearson (+180) 1.5u
Fight Goes to Decision (-190) 1.9u to win 1u

Fight #6: Krylov vs. Herman
Under 1.5 Rounds (-110) 2.2u to win 2u
Krylov ITD (-104) 2.08u to win 2u
Krylov Submission (+266) .5u
Krylov Submission (+384) .25u
Krylov Round 2 (+450) .25u

Hedge:
Herman Round 3 (+1500) .25u

Fight #7: Benoit vs. Serrano
Benoit Scorecards = NA (-122) 1.22 to win 1u
Benoit (+115) 1u
Benoit KO/TKO (+395) .5u

Fight #8: Perez vs. Rivera
Perez (-120) 1.2u to win 1u
Perez Decision (+227) .5u

Hedge:
Rivera Scorecards = NA (+136) .75u

Fight #9: Brown vs. Ellenberger
Brown ITD (-150) 2.25u to win 1.5u
Brown ITD (-141) 1.41u to win 1u
Brown Round 2 (+475) .5u
Brown Submission (+581) .25u

Hedge:
Ellenberger Submission (+956) .25u

Fight #10: Namajunas vs. Kowalkiewicz
Kowalkiewicz (+190) 1u
Kowalkiewicz (+220) 3u

Hedge:
Namajunas Submission (+310) 1u
Namajunas Submission (+365) .5u

Fight #11: Lawler vs. Woodley
Lawler -5.5 (+130) 4u
Lawler Round 3 (+875) 1u
Lawler Round 4 (+1175) 2u
Lawler Round 5 (+1675) 1.5u
Lawler Decision (+400) 1.5u

Hedge(s):
Woodley Round 1 (+850) 1.5u
Woodley Round 2 (+1050) 1u
Woodley Submission (+1375) .5u
Woodley Submission (+1600) .25u

[lokihayze]

Value is on KK all day

Agreed. I bet in her before I just saw this missing pat berry situation but now I'm even more confident with my pick.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Draftkings:
Brown ($10,900)
Lawler ($10,600)
Krylov ($10,200)
Hamilton ($9,400)
Kowalkiewicz ($8,600)

[lokihayze]

Hugo may be worth a play inside the distance for the graves/ bojan fight man.
He's finished 5 of his last 6 fights and bojan likes to finish them too.

[JIBBBY]

Value is on KK all day

I agree Hugo.. I'm with you on KK.. Can't go wrong with the over 2.5 like Hurlsweatpants said in the post above but those odds are -230.. Gotta lay $230 to win $100 which I really don't like to do..

I'm gonna play that over only if I'm up on the card leading into that fight.. I'm on the dog KK for a benny now and went a bit smaller on the decision prop as well..

Not betting really big with this fight unless I play that over come game time.. I do like KK's chances though as the dog at +175.

$63.50

$174.60

Pending

7/30/16 11:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1107 Kowalkiewicz wins by 3 round decision +275* vs Not Kowalkiewicz by 3 round decision

$100.00

$175.00

Pending

7/30/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Karolina Kowalkiewicz +175* vs Rose Namajunas

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo may be worth a play inside the distance for the graves/ bojan fight man.
He's finished 5 of his last 6 fights and bojan likes to finish them too.

Yeah I'm thinking about the under here as well, still waffling.

[lokihayze]

Kk is paying $2.78 in Australia.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I argee Hugo.. I'm with you on KK.. Can't go wrong with the over 2.5 like Hurlsweatpants said in the post above but those odds are -230.. ..

Gotta put up $230 to win $100 which I really don't like to do.. I'm gonna play that over though only if I'm up on the card leading into that fight.. As it stands right now I'm the dog KK for a benny now.. May still take KK on the decision prop as well..

$100.00

$175.00

Pending

7/30/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1101 Karolina Kowalkiewicz +175* vs Rose Namajunas

Yeah I've got fight goes the distance (-195) in a handful of parlays. Don't think she'll finish Rose so there's probably still value on KK Decision (+275).

[lokihayze]

Yeah I'm thinking about the under here as well, still waffling.

Yeah man, well I figure they like to finish to begin with AND they will want to try finish these fights and keep their jobs with the new company after all HAHAHA!
The boring fighters don't stay long and we just seen that kid who's name I can't recall this second 😂 put on a real performance last weekend which earned him some nice attention.
It's the way to fight, exciting and hard.
If you're a finisher to begin with under the current circumstances the chances of a finish are higher than usual I would think. I'm no pro gambler just putting my 2 cents in

[lokihayze]

Even the Lawler KO prop is paying $2.50 here. Some of the prices seem a fair bit generous this card! No complaints from me 😏

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yeah man, well I figure they like to finish to begin with AND they will want to try finish these fights and keep their jobs with the new company after all HAHAHA!
The boring fighters don't stay long and we just seen that kid who's name I can't recall this second  put on a real performance last weekend which earned him some nice attention.
It's the way to fight, exciting and hard.
If you're a finisher to begin with under the current circumstances the chances of a finish are higher than usual I would think. I'm no pro gambler just putting my 2 cents in

You might mean "The Mississippi Diaz" Jason Knight

[JIBBBY]

Yeah I've got fight goes the distance (-195) in a handful of parlays. Don't think she'll finish Rose so there's probably still value on KK Decision (+275).

Yep I decided to just hit that decision prop now at +275.. I did edit my post above to reflect that.

Gotta figure KK's most realistic pathway to victory is by out pointing Rose striking round after round to a decision win.. Not likely she's gonna KO Rose..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yep I decided to just hit that decision prop now at +275.. I did edit my post above to reflect that.

Gotta figure KK's most realistic pathway to victory is by out pointing Rose striking round after round to a decision win.. Not likely she's gonna KO Rose..

Good luck bro! Since I haven't seen a ton of submission D from KK I decided to hedge Rose sub at two different prices to cover my straight bet. I think if it stays mostly on the feet KK will overcome a slow start to win a 29-28 UD but Rose does have 4 of 5 career wins by sub and I've been impressed by her jitz.

[lokihayze]

Even the Lawler KO prop is paying $2.50 here. Some of the prices seem a fair bit generous this card! No complaints from me 😏

[lokihayze]

You might mean "The Mississippi Diaz" Jason Knight

That's the one good sir!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Ugh...Reis -3.5 cancelled because of backwards line. New line is -195. Not going to re-place it at those odds

[lokihayze]

Ugh...Reis -3.5 cancelled because of backwards line. New line is -195. Not going to re-place it at those odds

It's not cancelled on my betting site. What do you mean cancelled because of backwards line?

[Thrilla]

Scoggins/Mcall fight cancelled ..

http://mmajunkie.com/2016/07/video-i...led-weight-cut

http://mmajunkie.com/2016/07/weight-cutting-issues-force-justin-scoggins-out-of-ufc-201-flyweight-fight-vs-ian-mccall

[Hugo de Naranja]

It's not cancelled on my betting site. What do you mean cancelled because of backwards line?

5Ds sent me an email saying they set the line backwards meaning that Reis -3.5 was supposed to be (-195) and Sandoval +3.5 was supposed to be (+165) so they cancelled the bet.

[firekillex]

Scoggins looks like a crackhead super Saiyan lmao

[Thrilla]

^^^^



If Rory would have sat down on his punches rather then throw weak flurries he would have put away Ruthless Robbie as well.. Instead Robbie busted his nose late and it was game over. Rory doesn't have that killer instinct as he's been getting his ass beat regularly now.. Johny Hendricks lost his mojo as well..

Now Ruthless Robbie if fighting a hungry fighter in Twood.. Explosive and dangerous.. Let's see what happens!!!!

https://youtu.be/i4ODMCnAFqg?t=21m

[HurlSweatPants]

Good luck bro! Since I haven't seen a ton of submission D from KK I decided to hedge Rose sub at two different prices to cover my straight bet. I think if it stays mostly on the feet KK will overcome a slow start to win a 29-28 UD but Rose does have 4 of 5 career wins by sub and I've been impressed by her jitz.

Good move on the prop hedge, I still havent pulled the trigger yet but I will tonight, hedge my over. If it doesn't go the distance, the ONLY way I see this fight ending is Rose by sub.

[HurlSweatPants]

GL everyone, looking forward to this card and the 202 way more than I was 200.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Good move on the prop hedge, I still havent pulled the trigger yet but I will tonight, hedge my over. If it doesn't go the distance, the ONLY way I see this fight ending is Rose by sub.

Looking back at past fights KK did actually show decent sub defense against Mizuki Inoue in Invicta. I'm hype for this one.

[Thrilla]

Weigh-In

Note: Study Finds Fighters That Smile Are More Likely to Lose

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hmm Rivera Scorecards = NA up to (+136).

[Mxs1332]

Speaking on weigh in, how jacked is Rogan looking these days. DAYUM! Ketogenic diet and TRT treating him well.

[JIBBBY]

Hmm Rivera Scorecards = NA up to (+136).

I like it... Rivera has alot of KO wins on his record.. If it goes the distance which it very well could no action..

Decent bet at those odds.. I'll try it...... Thanks Hugo good eye...