UFC on FOX: Nurmagomedov vs. Ferguson (April 16, 2016)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

FOX, 8 p.m. ET
Tony Ferguson vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov
Rashad Evans vs. Glover Teixeira
Dan Henderson vs. Lyoto Machida
Rose Namajunas vs. Tecia Torres

FOX, 6 p.m. ET
Michael Chiesa vs. Beneil Dariush
Hacran Dias vs. Cub Swanson
John Dodson vs. Manny Gamburyan
Bethe Correia vs. Raquel Pennington

UFC Fight Pass, 4 p.m. ET
Court McGee vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
Randy Brown vs. Michael Graves
Cezar Ferreira vs. Caio Magalhaes
Drew Dober vs. Islam Makhachev
Omari Akhmedov vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

[PaperTrail07]

Amazing Card---Cant wait---Will be there!@

[JoshKnows46]

I'm gonna murder this card...already on ferguson straight, sub, no scorecards,chiesa, chiesa dec, glover and Machida. I have a play on Tecia/ rose fight, but not betting it yet, might be my biggest play on the card, and I'll have a play on all the undercard fights as well, excellent card.

[JIBBBY]

^^ I like those plays..

I wanna give Daruish a legit chance against the pressure offensive fighter and grinder in Chiesa but the pressure will probably be too much for Daruish in the clinch to handle and yes I could see Daruish losing by decision as well.. May take Dariush ITD as a hedge just because he will have the advantage when striking at distance in brief moments, he also has an outside chance of a submission as well if they get to rolling.....

Glover Tex ITD for sure.. Machida by KO, Rose ITD or Torres by decision are my thoughts with that fight.

Tony Ferguson is the play and maybe ITD....

[mirinquads]

Strange how you all of a sudden like all Josh's plays Jibbby? How did that happen?

Got 10 units on Glover +124, so suck upon my glorious member, everybody.

[JoshKnows46]

Strange how you all of a sudden like all Josh's plays Jibbby? How did that happen?

Got 10 units on Glover +124, so suck upon my glorious member, everybody.

Lol Strange right, I don't blaim him, he got tired of getting embarrassed. Real recognize real.

Nice glover line.

[JIBBBY]

I like the straight picks so far what do you want from me? Usually I look to fade Josh on a few fights but I don't see any yet.. Trust me I will fade something he picks with this event give it time....

Miri and Josh just play my prop suggestions when they come out and win money. Don't ask too many questions...

[jordanft19]

Anyone like Fight goes to decision for Namajunas vs Torres?

[JIBBBY]

Got 10 units on Glover +124, so suck upon my glorious member, everybody.

You're a smart man.. Rashad Evans looked washed up to me against Ryan Bader in his last fight... Glover probably knocks him out cold in this one and retires Sugar.. I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen..

[JIBBBY]

Anyone like Fight goes to decision for Namajunas vs Torres?

I only offer the facts..

I kinda like it going to decision myself.. These tiny chicks are usually pretty hard to finish..

Torres seems like a decision machine based on her fight outcomes too.. However, Rose on the other hand finishes her fights most of the time which makes me a little nervous.... Rose has only one decision in 6 pro fights..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Rose-Namajunas-69083

[JoshKnows46]

You're a smart man.. Rashad Evans looked washed up to me against Ryan Bader in his last fight... Glover probably knocks him out cold in this one and retires Sugar.. I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen..

Oh really, you said mir would retire Hunt too... lol

[JIBBBY]

Oh really, you said mir would retire Hunt too... lol

I also said Hunt could finish in round one and I should have hedged with the KO prop.. Stop Josh... lol back...

We can play this game as I remember you saying Johnny Case is a sure win.... You also said I would lose both my bets with the chick fight too in the last event.. I can pull those posts if you would like.. You were terribly mistaken in both, I mean really wrong....

[JoshKnows46]

I also said Hunt could finish in round one and I should have hedged with the KO prop.. Stop Josh... lol back...

We can play this game as I remember you saying Johnny Case is a sure win.... You also said I would lose both my bets with the chick fight too in the last event.. I can pull those posts if you would like.. You were terribly mistaken in both, I mean really wrong....

Who won money last event and who lost their ass? Oh yeah that's right Joshknows won money, jibby lost his ass then tryed to lie about it. Lmao who's up 33 grand, who's reloading their account every couple weeks, oh yeah that's right Joshknows is up 33 grand this year and jibby reloads after every event.. lol you want me to copy and paste how much you lost and how much I won?...how are you gonna hedge out a bet where you say one guy will retire another one, you hedging out of glover too?

[GoodSun]

[JIBBBY]

Who won money last event and who lost their ass? Oh yeah that's right Joshknows won money, jibby lost his ass then tryed to lie about it. Lmao who's up 33 grand, who's reloading their account every couple weeks, oh yeah that's right Joshknows is up 33 grand this year and jibby reloads after every event.. lol you want me to copy and paste how much you lost and how much I won?...how are you gonna hedge out a bet where you say one guy will retire another one, you hedging out of glover too?

I'm just a squirrel trying to get a nut now.. You did win the last event and you are up millions.. Congrats tough guy.. Hey, but I didn't get my ass handed to me. Let's not blow tings out of proportion now.. Relax Tarzan...

You're lucky you're playing the same fights as me so far with this event.. You might win this event too by the looks of it. You're not giving me much to fade at this point.. Throw down some more picks, give me something to work with for God sakes!...

Enjoy being the man for now because it ain't gonna last!!!!... Mama said knock you out soon.. Maybe not this next event big dog because we on the same stuff.. I'll hit the props though as usual and out value your bets pound for pound as always.... There will be other events in the future to clown you.....

[JoshKnows46]

I'm just a squirrel trying to get a nut now.. You did win the last event and you are up millions.. Congrats tough guy.. Hey, but I didn't get my ass handed to me. Let's not blow tings out of proportion now.. Relax Tarzan...

You're lucky you're playing the same fights as me so far with this event.. You might win this event too by the looks of it. You're not giving me much to fade at this point.. Throw down some more picks, give me something to work with for God sakes!...

Enjoy being the man for now because it ain't gonna last!!!!... Mama said knock you out soon.. Maybe not this next event big dog because we on the same stuff.. I'll hit the props though as usual and out value your bets pound for pound as always.... There will be other events in the future to clown you.....

[JIBBBY]

[JoshKnows46]

[CaptChaos145]

Anyone like Fight goes to decision for Namajunas vs Torres?

Fight goes to a Dec or Thug Rose by sub are the plays.

[JoshKnows46]

Fight goes to a Dec or Thug Rose by sub are the plays.

Thug rose straight, by sub and 3rd round finish are the plays...betting goes to dec, cuts into your profit 55 percent of the time in this matchup, no value in that price..Torres has no path to victory.

[JoshKnows46]

I shouldn't say no path to victory, Torres could conceivable win a dec if rose shows very poor fighter iq in her standup and goes to brawling, 10 percent chance, which is much less probable then rose finishing this 55%, case in point why going the distance is unprofitable based on line and probability of outcomes, rose straight at a similar price to going the distance, wins 90 percent of the time by either sub or dec, outside chance at a ko as rose has great counters and Torres could run into one.

[JoshKnows46]

The 3rd round finish is of excellent value based on half of the fight being on the feet, and how rose will and should approach the standup, better lateral movement, and more defined techique, it's worth 1 3rd of a unit, but you want to bet sub for 2 3rds of a unit based on roses improved wrestling and Torres recent showing of wanting to wrestle more as well, the fight can conceivable be stopped in the first 2 rounds, and this is why u want more money on the sub prop. It goes the 3 round distance 45 percent of the time, so you obvious want rose straight to be by far your biggest wager, as with most fights, you should always pick the fighter to win much higher then any props, as props are obviously more volitale to your profit.

[JIBBBY]

^^^So everyone and their grandmother is on ROSE then!!! Too bad those straight odds are at -190..

<small>UFC on Fox 19 - Strawweight 3 rounds - Amalie Arena - Tampa, Florida - Fox</small>
Sat 4/16		1401 Tecia Torres		<input id="editx" name="M1_4" size="4"> +165	<input id="editx" name="L1_4" size="4"> o2½ -225
8:00PM		1402 Rose Namajunas		<input id="editx" name="M2_4" size="4"> -190	<input id="editx" name="L2_4" size="4"> u2½ +185

[JoshKnows46]

^^^So everyone and their grandmother is on ROSE then!!! Too bad those straight odds are at -190..

<small>UFC on Fox 19 - Strawweight 3 rounds - Amalie Arena - Tampa, Florida - Fox</small>
Sat 4/16		1401 Tecia Torres		<input id="editx" name="M1_4" size="4"> +165	<input id="editx" name="L1_4" size="4"> o2½ -225
8:00PM		1402 Rose Namajunas		<input id="editx" name="M2_4" size="4"> -190	<input id="editx" name="L2_4" size="4"> u2½ +185

as one of my homie's said after the ufc on fox 17 card, when i went 5-1 on the night/ +$7532.61, never doubt me, I will never steer you to defeat, if i bet it, we gonna cash it.

Right this moment,,,, I might jump off a bridge holding his hand if he told me we would be safe and super rich afterwards

Still one of my favorite quotes, LOL.

[JIBBBY]

^^ Lol .. You sure don't lack confidence with your plays I'll give you that much bud..

[JoshKnows46]

^^ Lol .. You sure don't lack confidence with your plays I'll give you that much bud..

This is what i do man, my name isn't joshGuesses, JoshAssumes, JoshHopes, Or JoshWishes....I put in the work to know the outcome, I put in the work to be sure in myself, this is why i don't take kindly to disrespect, because i put in hours upon hours of film study, i put in real work at this, and i share my work with this forum....I know because I've i gone multiple years without having a losing month, I've always knew, but i didn't always get payed like the best in the world, because id win 10 straight match-ups, then go all in on one, thats why i preach money managment, you can be the best at what you do, but still lose at this, I got wise, i can no longer be beat...i've multiplied my bankroll 5 times in one year, and i'm gonna beat my record this year...For the last 4 years, its been a revenge tour, and i'm taking everyone with me to the top.....My name is accurate, and its simply put JoshKnows.

[JIBBBY]

So the show - UFC Ultimate Insider has a full episode on Rose and Torres.. They have Ferguson and Khabib interviewed as well about the match up also on this show..

Good show to check on how these chicks have evolved and train... Both these fighters did fight once already with Torres winning by unanimous decision.. Torres was better in the stand up in that first fight. From what I see both have improved from 3 years ago when they first fought.. I think you need to worry about Rose possibly winning by submission but I think it goes over...This fight is only 3 rounds just like the first one..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Rose-Namajunas-69083

[JoshKnows46]

So the show - UFC Ultimate Insider has a full episode on Rose and Torres.. They have Ferguson interviewed as well about the Kabib match up also on this show..

Good show to check on how these chicks have evolved and train... Both these fighters did fight once already with Rose winning by unanimous decision.. From what I see both have improved from 3 years ago when they first fought.. The outcome should be the same though but I think you need to worry about Rose possibly winning by submission..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Rose-Namajunas-69083

rose lost by dec...torres has never lost a official fight before, as a pro or amateur...

[JIBBBY]

rose lost by dec...torres has never lost before, as a pro or amateur...

Typo man my bad.. I was editing my above post when you responded..

Rose did lose by unanimous decision and not Torres.. 3 years have passed now and I do think Rose has improved more between the two.. Torres spends her alot of her time in school and not in the gym...

[JoshKnows46]

rose lost by dec...torres has never lost a official fight before, as a pro or amateur...

what i mean by she's never lost a offical fight, is she lost on TUF to randa markos by dec, which doesn't count on your record, this will be the first fight she is finished inside the distance.

[JIBBBY]

what i mean by she's never lost a offical fight, is she lost on TUF to randa markos by dec, which doesn't count on your record, this will be the first fight she is finished inside the distance.

Rose by sub then? I haven't placed on this fight yet.. I still need to work it out in my head..

[JoshKnows46]

Typo man my bad.. I was editing my above post when you responded.. I like the over in this match up..

Rose did lose by unanimous decision and not Torres but Roses jits has improved greatly since.. 3 years have passed now and I do think Rose has improved more between the two.. Torres spends her alot of her time in school and not in the gym...

rose could have beat her last time, but she fought to torres strengths, she will handle her easily this go around, and i give it a 55% chance of it being stopped inside the distance, besed on roses improved wrestling, there is nothing that torres does better the rose, wrestling, striking or grappling, and rose can sub her from top or from bottom position.

[THE_RUDESTER]

https://youtu.be/Gs-AiyplANo

[THE_RUDESTER]

https://youtu.be/172DwMUaJBA

Tony Ferguson workout.

[Mxs1332]

https://youtu.be/172DwMUaJBA

Tony Ferguson workout.

Really nice vid. Tony for sure believes in Dragons and Movement Coaches.

#SaidNoOneEver