UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Oliveira (February 21, 2016)

[TPowell]

The Best play will be The Crusher Kawajiri.

Interesting, you think ITD

[JIBBBY]

The Best play will be The Crusher Kawajiri.

You really think he can lay and pray on DB for 3 rounds and get the decision? Pretty hard to control Bermudez on the ground.. Burmudez has got a solid wrestling base and will have the advantage striking for sure.. Remember Bermudez handled Clay Guida's wrestling and won that fight.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dennis-Bermudez-58065

Wrestling

Puerto Rican/American Bermudez began wrestling in 2000 and held a high school record of 112 wins and 23 losses.^[6] From high school he went on to wrestle at Bloomsburg University of Pennsylvania where in 2007 he was ranked 22nd in the nation at the Division 1 level. Bermudez then became a college free-style All-American in Akron, Ohio.^[7]



Unwritten you should play this prop if you believe in Kawajiri

1307 Kawajiri wins by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_86" name="radiox" type="radio">+515

I personally think the Asian fade is in play with this one.. Kawajiri is old too..

My only play so far with this fight.. Small stuff..

1309 Bermudez wins inside distance

<input id="radiox" value="M1_87" name="radiox" type="radio">+191

[bjpenn85]

The Best play will be The Crusher Kawajiri.

Im on Bermudez, but i think kawajiri can win a decision worst case. So best play would probably be kawajiri by decision? Probably a controversial one, cause he doesnt have striking.

[Deceptakhan]

Cowboy Cerrone fired Jackson and the rest of his coaches after his RDA beating?! This true?

[bjpenn85]

The Best play will be The Crusher Kawajiri.

see how easily Bermudez deflect any takedowns on Guida. If you look closely on Bermudez tdd technique is overwhelmingly superior, he just brushes any takedowns off like " are you serious?". And thats against guida which is absolutely a takedown maniac. So good fakking luck betting on Kawajiri SU. I will call you sloppy for not seeing this. Betting its about breaking down shit and then have an opinion, not going out on sbr saying shit and then fakk fakk fakk, back pedaling when you realise youre wrong....or is this a trick to not break down shit to save energy? If yes, then congratulations.

[Unwritten Law]

Interesting, you think ITD

Not likely, but I do like the Crusher by decision. Dennis also had to deal with a staph infection not too long ago as well (December). Good luck with your picks.

[bjpenn85]

Kawajiri and bermudez operate on two different frequencies. The difference in speed will be present for 15 minutes, as i said earlier, good luck!

[JoshKnows46]

Kawajiri and bermudez operate on two different frequencies. The difference in speed will be present for 15 minutes, as i said earlier, good luck!

I agree with him bj, of the 5 big favorites, thats the only one undeserving of his price tag. Line should be under -200. Garbarant, cerrone, murphy and brunson are all much better bets at virtually the same line.

[TPowell]

Listening to the MMA Analysis and they made some good points, but didn't connect them to what I think is the best play for Garcia/Strickland. Strickland is a long guy with a solid job who has some decent subs and BJJ and could keep Garcia out of his comfort zone with his pitter patter jabs and Garcia can take a punch as well. He made it 3 rounds against Magny with a gruesome leg injury in his only loss. Garcia is supposedly a mini Hector Lombard, but he has nowhere near that much power. He has very good offensive wrestling and can land some solid punches on the inside, but that is about it. I just can't see this fight ending inside the distance unless Garcia gets inside and manages to land some solid shots and I think if he does get inside much, he'll be trying to put the fight on the ground and lay and pray. Currently sitting at -110 for going the distance

[JIBBBY]

Listening to the MMA Analysis and they made some good points, but didn't connect them to what I think is the best play for Garcia/Strickland. Strickland is a long guy with a solid job who has some decent subs and BJJ and could keep Garcia out of his comfort zone with his pitter patter jabs and Garcia can take a punch as well. He made it 3 rounds against Magny with a gruesome leg injury in his only loss. Garcia is supposedly a mini Hector Lombard, but he has nowhere near that much power. He has very good offensive wrestling and can land some solid punches on the inside, but that is about it. I just can't see this fight ending inside the distance unless Garcia gets inside and manages to land some solid shots and I think if he does get inside much, he'll be trying to put the fight on the ground and lay and pray. Currently sitting at -110 for going the distance

Can't argue your distance logic...


Write ups...

Alex Garcia vs. Sean Strickland

Two of the best up-and-comers at 170 pounds meet in the prelim headliner as Alex Garcia and Sean Strickland look to move into top-25 territory. Both men are rugged and running toward the peaks of their respective games. This is going to be a chess match that has two key factors: chin and cardio. I believe Strickland has an advantage in both those categories, and if he can weather the early storm by Garcia, he will take him the distance in victorious fashion.

Carey: Alex Garcia’s match-up with Sean Strickland is getting hardly any due, but it’s a good fight between two interesting up-and-comers at 170 pounds. Both men are bringing solid 3-1 UFC records into the Octagon, and with Garcia entering his prime at 28 and Strickland coming in at just 24, the winner could find himself in a good spot in a deep welterweight division.
Garcia is likely the favorite based on his UFC resume. “The Dominican Nightmare” fought a really close fight with the perennially underrated Neil Magny not long ago, and he followed up the performance with a solid win over Mike Swick in his last outing. Like a lot of guys, Garcia has seen his finishing percentage drop since jumping to the big show, but he’s still a very dangerous guy and could make some waves with another win or two.
What makes this fight so fun is that Strickland is a more than worthy threat to knock off Garcia. “Tarzan” is a big, tall guy with a huge four-inch height and reach advantage over Garcia. Unlike a lot of young fighters, he’s proven to be able to utilize his reach well during his time in the Octagon. There aren’t any Swicks or Magnys on his record, but Strickland has fought and beaten some tough guys in Igor Araújo and Luke Barnatt. He has a really good chance to use his physical advantages and earn a big win this weekend.


Tough fight to call IMO.. Do like the over like you TPOW...

[JIBBBY]

^^

1603 Garcia / Strickland goes 3 rnd distance

<input id="radiox" value="M1_158" name="radiox" type="radio">-120

<small>UFC Fight Night 83 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Consol Energy Center - Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania - FS1</small>
Sun 2/21		1601 Alex Garcia		<input id="radiox" value="M1_6" name="radiox" type="radio">+100	<input id="radiox" value="L1_6" name="radiox" type="radio">o2½ -140
8:30PM		1602 Sean Strickland		<input id="radiox" value="M2_6" name="radiox" type="radio">-120	<input id="radiox" value="L2_6" name="radiox" type="radio">u2½ +120

[TPowell]

Also looking at Bermudez -345 and scorecards are no action. The only way he loses this fight is if he gets layed down on for 15 minutes and I think if he gets too loose in going for takedowns, Bermudez could find a sub.

[JIBBBY]

Also looking at Bermudez -345 and scorecards are no action. The only way he loses this fight is if he gets layed down on for 15 minutes and I think if he gets too loose in going for takedowns, Bermudez could find a sub.

Was watching UFC tonight even the guys on the panel were saying Bermudez defensive wrestling should keep the fight standing and if it becomes a striking war Bermudez should be much better..

Bermudez by KO or ITD are the plays me tinks in this one for odds value.. If Kawajiri can't get this fight to the ground early on he's gonna get worked standing and probably finished in the later rounds.. Bermudez does have 4 KO's and 3 sub wins so he can finish this fight if it stays standing or maybe even on the ground if he rocks Kawajiri first..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dennis-Bermudez-58065

1333 Bermudez wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_114" name="radiox" type="radio">+340

1309 Bermudez wins inside distance

<input id="radiox" value="M1_102" name="radiox" type="radio">+175

[TPowell]

Another hedge would be Oliveira winning in Round 1 at around +1200. I hate to do it, but there is no way that AO wins this fight unless he jumps on him early

[richie360]

Chris Camozzi vs Joe Riggs = Fight won't go the distance. Bermudez + Brunson + Cerrone parlay. Will have more in play action on this card than usual.

[agendaman]

josh are some ufc fights rigged

[bjpenn85]

Was watching UFC tonight even the guys on the panel were saying Bermudez defensive wrestling should keep the fight standing and if it becomes a striking war Bermudez should be much better..

Bermudez by KO or ITD are the plays me tinks in this one for odds value.. If Kawajiri can't get this fight to the ground early on he's gonna get worked standing and probably finished in the later rounds.. Bermudez does have 4 KO's and 3 sub wins so he can finish this fight if it stays standing or maybe even on the ground if he rocks Kawajiri first..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dennis-Bermudez-58065

1333 Bermudez wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_114" name="radiox" type="radio">+340

1309 Bermudez wins inside distance

<input id="radiox" value="M1_102" name="radiox" type="radio">+175

Oh no...youre at it again. Do you think 3 tkos in 2009-20010 is relevant to day? Is this a joke?

[JIBBBY]

This card is tomorrow night.. Sunday venue..

Wonder why Zuffa didn't set this up for tonight? UFC events usually fall on a Saturday night.. I hope this doesn't jinx some of the fighters.. Cowboy Cerrone seemed a little amused by the Sunday start as he expressed that on UFC tonight show interview..

Cowboy Cerrone really just doesn't care about anything in MMA, he doesn't plan, study fighters, no planning what so ever.. He just gets in the cage and does his thing. That's why he has slow starts, no plan.. Like he said in the UFC tonight interview to DC and Kenny Florian he's just looking to get paid and make that money.. Doesn't mean he'll fight any worse or better then in any other past fights. That's just how Donald Cerrone rolls..

[JIBBBY]

Oh no...youre at it again. Do you think 3 tkos in 2009-20010 is relevant to day? Is this a joke?

No BJ, Bermudez winning ITD isn't a joke.. I can see the 2 wrestlers keeping the fight standing, DB defending the take downs and then landing frequently standing and getting the late KO or sub win late in the fight.... Maybe you should fade me on this... Take Kawasaki winning by Decision... Ya never know? I could be wrong..

1307 Kawajiri wins by 3 round decision

<input id="editx" name="M1_72" size="4"> +535

The Burmudez straight odds are just too stiff so I'll pass on that and try the ITD bet instead at +odds.. Didn't even parlay Bermudez with the straight or hedge... Kawajiri barely made it out of his last fight, he was completely gassed out in that decision win.. Kawajiri is almost 40 years old now.. I like the younger 29 year old Bermudez finishing in this one..

DB finishes in half his fights, he's finished in his past 2 fight wins, he finished Clay Guida and Hettes recently.. DB is coming off 2 tough losses now and needs the spectacular win and I think he gets it. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dennis-Bermudez-58065

$100.00

$191.00

Pending

2/21/16 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1309 Bermudez wins inside distance +191* <small>vs</small> Not Bermudez inside distance

[JoshKnows46]

No BJ, Bermudez winning ITD isn't a joke.. I can see the 2 wrestlers keeping the fight standing, DB defending the take downs and then landing frequently standing and getting the late KO or sub win late in the fight.... Maybe you should fade me on this... Take Kawasaki winning by Decision... Ya never know? I could be wrong..

1307 Kawajiri wins by 3 round decision

<input id="editx" name="M1_72" size="4"> +535

The Burmudez straight odds are just too stiff so I'll pass on that and try the ITD bet instead at +odds.. Didn't even parlay Bermudez with the straight or hedge... Kawajiri barely made it out of his last fight, he was completely gassed out in that decision win.. Kawajiri is almost 40 years old now.. I like the younger 29 year old Bermudez finishing in this one..

DB finishes in half his fights, he's finished in his past 2 fight wins, he finished Clay Guida and Hettes recently.. DB is coming off 2 tough losses now and needs the spectacular win and I think he gets it. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dennis-Bermudez-58065

$100.00

$191.00

Pending

2/21/16 10:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1309 Bermudez wins inside distance +191* <small>vs</small> Not Bermudez inside distance

bermudez No scorecards probabe the smartest play, because your only betting on kawajiri not finishing.
for plus money...
maybe bermudez round 3 finish, whats that at?
or kawajiri by dec.....

me personally i'm not playing it, but those would be the 3 plays id look at, if i had to play it.

[JIBBBY]

bermudez No scorecards probabe the smartest play, because your only betting on kawajiri not finishing.
for plus money...
maybe bermudez round 3 finish, whats that at?
or kawajiri by dec.....

me personally i'm not playing it, but those would be the 3 plays id look at, if i had to play it.

1323 Bermudez wins in round 2

<input id="radiox" value="M1_80" name="radiox" type="radio">+600

1325 Bermudez wins in round 3

<input id="radiox" value="M1_81" name="radiox" type="radio">+1100

[JoshKnows46]

I bet Lauren murphy finish in the 3rd and 2nd, love the value on both..

[JIBBBY]

^ Solid prop thinking with your individual round bets Josh.. I like the ideas for that kinda value...

Both fights should probably get past the 1st round...

[richie360]

Would normally be really pissed off that this event is on a Sunday. Had a hernia op at start of the week tho, no work on Monday :-) I'm from the Uk so events don't finish till about half 5-6 in the morning. Let's make some cash on this event!!

[TPowell]

bermudez No scorecards probabe the smartest play, because your only betting on kawajiri not finishing.
for plus money...
maybe bermudez round 3 finish, whats that at?
or kawajiri by dec.....

me personally i'm not playing it, but those would be the 3 plays id look at, if i had to play it.

I had the same thought but at nearly -400 on that, I hate having a guy who doesn't really finish fights anymore and tends to get rocked

[JIBBBY]

Event write ups coming in now - Good basic information in the reads.. More to come...

MMA MANIA Part 1 - http://www.mmamania.com/2016/2/15/10...pittsburgh-mma

Combat Press - http://combatpress.com/2016/02/toe-t...d-predictions/

Fansided - http://fansided.com/2016/02/16/ufc-f...w-predictions/

Part 2 prelims. Forgot to link this up, better late then never...http://www.mmamania.com/2016/2/16/10...pittsburgh-mma

[JIBBBY]

Weigh ins - The 2 Cowboys are all smiles and hugs.. I'd prefer bad blood....

[JoshKnows46]

Kawajiri looked huge next to bermudez. Mendes backed down from garbarandt in stare down, Mendes literally has nothing for him and looks scared, I had to put 2 units on garbarandt by ko after seeing that. Mendes has horrible striking, wrestling, and jitz hasn't translated well to mma, no power, garbarant should finish him in the 1st round, run right over him in seconds. No way should mendes make the scorecards, if he does, garbarandt needs to look for new carreer path.

[jordanft19]

Joshknows, any thought on Shane Campbell by UD?

[JoshKnows46]

Joshknows, any thought on Shane Campbell by UD?

I like the number on it, but Krause could sub him, I ended up not betting this fight. I believe Campbell and tawajiri both only have one path to victory and it's by dec. If you bet Campbell by dec, hedge it with Krause by sub, but dont go more than 1.5 units total. Me personally, it's a no bet for this one. Usually when I try to force action, it ends up cutting into my profit for the event.

[JoshKnows46]

Full Card:

Donald Cerrone -200/-245/-255/-270 Risking $3000

Parlay:
Donald Cerrone -270/-265
Derek Brunson -350/-335
Risking $3000

Parlay
Cerrone -280
Gabarant -330
Risking $1000

Parlay:
Cerrone -280
Leonardo Augusto Guimaraes +150/+130
Risking $1000

Parlay:
Cerrone -270
Mcgregor inside the distance -116
Risking $500

Murphy -330 Risking $1000

Cerrone inside the distance -145/-160 risking $500

Cerrone wins by sub +250 $100 to win $250
Cerrone wins in round 2 +450 $100 to win $450

Lauren Murphy wins in round 3 +1325 $80 to win $1060
Lauren Murphy to win in round 2 +725 $30 to win $217.50
Garbarandt wins by tko/ko +105 $600 to win $630
Bamgbose wins by tko/ko +240 $300 to win $720
Strickland/Garcia over 2.5 -160 $320 to win $200
Strickland finishes in round 3 +1350 $50 to $675

[JoshKnows46]

feel disgusting i put a whole unit on this, but feel its the smart thing to do, hedged 300 to win 3300 on olivera 1st round finish, In case he surprises early before Cowboy gets going and gets his distance down. this covers 1/3rd of the $9200 i have invested in cowboy.

[JoshKnows46]

feel disgusting i put a whole unit on this, but feel its the smart thing to do, hedged 300 to win 3300 on olivera 1st round finish, In case he surprises early before Cowboy gets going and gets his distance down. this covers 1/3rd of the $9200 i have invested in cowboy.

And before someone tells me the limit is 250 on this prop, I'm not limited on any bet I want to make, exept live bets, and I'm not talking about why..

[richie360]

Kawajiri looked huge next to bermudez. Mendes backed down from garbarandt in stare down, Mendes literally has nothing for him and looks scared, I had to put 2 units on garbarandt by ko after seeing that. Mendes has horrible striking, wrestling, and jitz hasn't translated well to mma, no power, garbarant should finish him in the 1st round, run right over him in seconds. No way should mendes make the scorecards, if he does, garbarandt needs to look for new carreer path.

Would be surprised if Mendes hears the bell at end of first. Got a bit on Garbrandt to finish in either round 1 or 2.

[Sanity Check]

Anyone remember what happened in the Luke Barnatt vs Sean Strickland and Alex Garcia vs Neil Magny fights?

Sherdog judges scored it 30-27, 30-27 and 30-28 for Barnatt defeating Strickland. http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC...ean-strickland

Sherdog judges scored it 29-28, 29-28, 29-28 for Garcia defeating Magny. http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/UFC...cia-neil-magny

Not remembering if Cathal Pendred achievement awards were handed out on those nights.

Strickland might be overrated and Garcia might be underrated leading into that 1.