UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Miller (July 16, 2014)

[PaperTrail07]

I would HAVE to lean Salas here.....decent fighter and should get past Proctor...has the skills to do it...Salas is just not a guy who has a lot of potential IMO....seems like he will never be great.... average at BEST

[PaperTrail07]

UPCOMING	Justin Salas	UFC Fight Night Cerrone vs. Miller: FOX Sports 1 Jul 16, 2014	--	--	--	--	--	<!-- --> Ways To Watch <!-- --> <!-- --> <!-- -->
Joe Proctor	--	--	--	--
<!-- -->
Win	Justin Salas	UFC Fight Night Brown vs. Silva: FOX Sports 1 May 10, 2014	20	0	0	0	R1 KO/TKO	<!-- --> Ways To Watch <!-- --> <!-- --> <!-- -->
Ben Wall	4	0	0	0
<!-- -->
Loss	Thiago Tavares	UFC Fight Night Belfort vs. Henderson: FOX Sports 1 Nov 9, 2013	7	1	1	2	R1 Submission	<!-- --> Ways To Watch <!-- --> <!-- --> <!-- -->
Justin Salas	4	0	0	1
<!-- -->
Win	Aaron Riley	UFC on FOX 8 Live from Seattle: Johnson vs. Moraga Jul 27, 2013	26	0	0	0	R3 Decision - Split	Watch <!-- --> Ways To Watch UFC FIGHT PASS <!-- --> <!-- --> <!-- -->
Justin Salas	54	3	0	0
<!-- -->
Loss	Tim Means	UFC on FX 3: Johnson vs. McCall Jun 8, 2012	26	0	0	0	R1 KO/TKO	Watch <!-- --> Ways To Watch UFC FIGHT PASS <!-- --> <!-- --> <!-- -->
Justin Salas	5	0	0	0
<!-- -->
Win	Anton Kuivanen	UFC on FUEL TV 1: Sanchez vs. Ellenberger Feb 15, 2012	38	0	0	0	R3 Decision - Unanimous

[PaperTrail07]

not horrible.....can we even say "good losses " he didn't stand a chance in either

[JIBBBY]

I would HAVE to lean Salas here.....decent fighter and should get past Proctor...has the skills to do it...Salas is just not a guy who has a lot of potential IMO....seems like he will never be great.... average at BEST

Gonna make me watch more fight vids on these guys Papertrail..

Ya know - Capping properly does take time and effort.. Who ever said gambling is easy is lying or not winning.. It's a job... One that you are the master over though..

Prop bets also have the most value potential I think in MMA betting if you really think and know how a fight might go... Love the prop bets....Might be a little easier and more profitable then landing the parlay bets when considering 2 combinations...

[JIBBBY]

Anyone think Pat Bam Bam Healy +125 has a chance against Glelson Tibau?

I'm thinking upset in this fight.. Pat is a grinder and if he can get past the 1st round I think he can start to wear down and grind on the heavy muscled and cardio challenged Tibau.. Maybe Pat can win this fight by decision.. Hmmm?

[Kermit]

Anyone think Pat Bam Bam Healy +125 has a chance against Glelson Tibau?

I'm thinking upset in this fight.. Pat is a grinder and if he can get past the 1st round I think he can start to wear down and grind on the heavy muscled and cardio challenged Tibau.. Maybe Pat can win this fight by decision.. Hmmm?

I agree with you on all points.

[MarkWoodstick]

Anyone think Pat Bam Bam Healy +125 has a chance against Glelson Tibau?

I'm thinking upset in this fight.. Pat is a grinder and if he can get past the 1st round I think he can start to wear down and grind on the heavy muscled and cardio challenged Tibau.. Maybe Pat can win this fight by decision.. Hmmm?

Think there was really nice value in the +145 opener...Down to +115 on 5Dimes so a little more hesitant. Will rewatch Healy fights, and hope the line doesn't move closer to pick em' by then.

[MarkWoodstick]

If they had a stat for most failed guillotine attempts per fight, Joe Proctor would be the undisputed leader.

[gabe]

I would HAVE to lean Salas here.....decent fighter and should get past Proctor...has the skills to do it...Salas is just not a guy who has a lot of potential IMO....seems like he will never be great.... average at BEST

I think he'll beat Proctor but you're right, he's too busy focused on running his own gym now to truly become a better fighter, although his striking looks a bit better

[CaptChaos145]

Cerrone and Miller have 57 fights combined with only 10 losses. 4 of those losses came to the same guys. Bendo and Nate both beat Cerrone & Miller. Jimmy is a pressure fighter and Cerrone seems to start slow. This is also a 5 rounder. Tough all on this one.

[MarkWoodstick]

THE FIGHT PREDICTOR.. Interesting value suggestions and why... http://thefightpredictor.com/2014/07...ions-and-bets/

For the most part, their breakdowns of the fights are them regurgitating the fighters' records and the results of their past fights. I would like a little more analysis of the actual matchup at hand. Their Martins/White breakdown is particularly disturbing.

[MD]

For the most part, their breakdowns of the fights are them regurgitating the fighters' records and the results of their past fights. I would like a little more analysis of the actual matchup at hand. Their Martins/White breakdown is particularly disturbing.

You'll notice that with most of JIBBBY's URL's. Not a good resource for MMA information, but he's lovable.

[JIBBBY]

You'll notice that with most of JIBBBY's URL's. Not a good resource for MMA information, but he's lovable.

Well maybe you can enlighten and share with us some of your "good resource" information web links?.. I'd surely welcome it if I hadn't read it over already.... I post generic stuff up early on with the card breakdowns.. Main stream stuff.. Short reads... Still has valuable info to consider early on I think.. Like this one - http://mmajunkie.com/2014/07/ufc-fig...ht-wins-record

Alot of talk and no show with ya MD, come on pal you can do better then just this


MarkWoodStick - Bovada still has Pat Healy up at +125....

I'm in on PH for a unit!!!!!! Huge cardio advantage going in and he can take a beating with that giant sized head of his and keep on ticking.. LOL...

[JIBBBY]

Think there was really nice value in the +145 opener...Down to +115 on 5Dimes so a little more hesitant. Will rewatch Healy fights, and hope the line doesn't move closer to pick em' by then.

I've watched all the recent fights between these 2 bums. Tibau is explosive and strong early on, threatens with big punches and a good ground game.. He's a big muscular dude that is Cardio challenged and begins to fatigue and slow down half way thru the early rounds. Pat doesn't offer up alot of head movement as he looks to press and close the distance and grind it out.. Wear down his opponents in the clinch and what not.. He can take a good shot which makes me think he can last in this fight early on then impose his will and cardio on Glelson as the fight continues....

Once past the 1st round it's gonna be all Pat Healy I think if he's not too busted up... Both these guys kinda suck so you never know.. Pat is horrible with his boxing and or striking at a distance..

As an underdog in this bout though you still gotta go with Pat Healy I would think....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miHPDbI89UE

If Evan Durham can wear down and beat Tibau I think Pat Healy can probably do the same.. Jim Miller grinded him down as well for a win.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Gleison-Tibau-5993

[Jim_Gunn]

I thought that the over 2½ rounds for Healy/Tibau was the best bet for that fight, at least at the -210 opener or -230 line where I got it. It's more pricey now at -280.

[JIBBBY]

I thought that the over 2½ rounds for Healy/Tibau was the best bet for that fight, at least at the -210 opener or -230 line where I got it. It's more pricey now at -280.

Can't argue with your reasoning Jim.

Only concern is Tibau blasting Pat Healy early and often standing when fresh.. Still like the over also as Pat is durable and not a finisher.... Will look for that combo Prop bet considering...


Missing live MMA this weekend!!!.. Withdrawls and cold sweats setting in... LOL...

[MarkWoodstick]

I would HAVE to lean Salas here.....decent fighter and should get past Proctor...has the skills to do it...Salas is just not a guy who has a lot of potential IMO....seems like he will never be great.... average at BEST

What skills in particular are you talking about? His wrestling hasn't translated well to MMA, and even if he manages to eventually take Proctor down, he will not be able to control him on top. He's never shown any semblance of top control in the UFC and Proctor is dangerous from his back. Salas' striking is decent, but I would argue that Proctor's boxing is sharper.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

gonna be Tibau's 22nd fight in the UFC, sometimes you forget how long so of these guys have been around

[JIBBBY]

What skills in particular are you talking about? His wrestling hasn't translated well to MMA, and even if he manages to eventually take Proctor down, he will not be able to control him on top. He's never shown any semblance of top control in the UFC and Proctor is dangerous from his back. Salas' striking is decent, but I would argue that Proctor's boxing is sharper.

I looked a little deeper into these 2 guys over the weekend and I'm still gonna have to go with Proctor which was my original assessment..

I do honestly think either of these guys have a pretty good chance to win this fight though and I see no clear favorite... The odds reflect that too.. So in my mind you gotta go with the value even though it's slight.. That happens to be Proctor at + 115 and shrinking on 5D...

I'm gonna bet small on Proctor... His ability to strike effectively convinced me like u r suggesting as well MarkWood.....

[JIBBBY]

John Lineker vs Alp Ozkilic - More I look in on this fight the more I think Alp has a chance.. Both these guys are hard to finish and I certainly like this fight to go the distance.. Both coming off tough decision losses.. I think the odds are a little high and off in favor of John Lineker at -290 going into this one to be honest..

Smart money is probably on John Lineker in a decision victory but.......... Alp is a game opponent at 9-2 and has some good recent wins on his record...

Anybody have some thoughts on this scrap? I'm gonna try and watch some more fight vids on these guys tonight.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/John-Lineker-41906

[MarkWoodstick]

I looked a little deeper into these 2 guys over the weekend and I'm still gonna have to go with Proctor which was my original assessment..

I do honestly think either of these guys have a pretty good chance to win this fight though and I see no clear favorite... The odds reflect that too.. So in my mind you gotta go with the value even though it's slight.. That happens to be Proctor at + 115 and shrinking on 5D...

I'm gonna bet small on Proctor... His ability to strike effectively convinced me like u r suggesting as well MarkWood.....

Thrilled to have placed my bet on Proctor yesterday at +140. There is still some value at +115 - +105 but I would be a little more reluctant to pull the trigger on a larger bet at those odds

[JIBBBY]

Cerrone and Miller have 57 fights combined with only 10 losses. 4 of those losses came to the same guys. Bendo and Nate both beat Cerrone & Miller. Jimmy is a pressure fighter and Cerrone seems to start slow. This is also a 5 rounder. Tough all on this one.

This post has merit for sure..

I don't remember ever seeing Cerrone gas out though in his fights.. Back in the day he use to be dominated and controlled on the ground by elite wrestlers that bring pressure but he has worked on that deficiency I believe.. If anyone will gas out in this fight and get beat on in the late rounds it's probably gonna be Jim Miller...

Jim is tough as nails though and so is Cowboy and as a fan I'm really excited to see this fight go down!!!!.. It should be a WAR.....

Jim will press and try to use his wrestling and his short powerful strikes in clinch.... Jim is seasoned enough to know not to fight at long range with Cowboy that's for sure..

This is a tough fight.. Still like Cowboy...

[Domestic]

Also getting on the proctor bandwagon, good luck team.

[MarkWoodstick]

Good to see that all of Jerrod Sanders' fights have been wiped off the Internet. On paper it appears like an easy cash, as Sanders is a NCAA wrestler and Cedeno is a solid striker with weak grappling and a questionable gas tank.

[mmaed]

Good to see that all of Jerrod Sanders' fights have been wiped off the Internet. On paper it appears like an easy cash, as Sanders is a NCAA wrestler and Cedeno is a solid striker with weak grappling and a questionable gas tank.

Do you see it playing out the way it appears on paper?

[MarkWoodstick]

Do you see it playing out the way it appears on paper?

Yes, but I would need to see at least two of Sanders' fights before I actually bet on him.

I watched Cedeno's fight against a doughy Eric Chavez and Cedeno looked absolutely lost on the ground. Rogan went as far as to call him a novice. Cedeno also slowed down significantly as early as the end of the first round, but I'm not sure how much debuting for the UFC on two weeks notice was a factor in him gassing so early. Sanders has a few wins by submission and from what I've heard sticks to a pretty disciplined wrestling game plan, which is a perfect counter to Cedeno's style, so I am torn.

[Keyboard Warrior]

Tina Lahdemaki some huge value here. Someone talk me out of making this bet? The girl Gadehla looked great against had a blown out knee in that fight and now is fighting at 105 lbs. I know Claudia cuts from 135 but Tina is a 125 lb fighter coming down to 115. I see split decision in this fight +300 YES PLS

[JIBBBY]

Alex White (10-0) vs Lucas Martins (14-1) - Liking the dog in this fight a little bit more at +140 in Lucas Martins... Thinking the O will go perhaps..... Reason being -

Couple of Brazilians going at it in this bout at featherweight - One is a Jits based fighter in Alex White against a MT based fighter in Lucas Martins.... Hmmmm?

(copy and Paste) Check....

Currently 2-1 in the UFC, Martins is on a two fight win streak, and is looking to work his way up in the division. He’s actually coming back up to featherweight after dipping down into the bantamweight pool. White, meanwhile, is coming off a victory in his UFC debut, a Performance of the Night KO over Estevan Payan.
While White has learned to use his hands and not rely solely on his jiu-jitsu, in which he’s a blue belt, he’d be best served to avoid striking and especially the clinch with the dangerous Martins.
White is a last-minute replacement due to an injury to original combatant Jim Alers, though the switch shouldn’t prove too difficult for Martins. Expect perhaps a TKO victory in this one..

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Thinking maybe worth a dog play but I don't like that Martins is coming up in weight.. Hmmmm? Still both size up well though.. Like the striker in Martins at +140 in this one.... His only loss is to Edson Barboza so that's respectable..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Lucas-Martins-100031

[Keyboard Warrior]

Alex White is from Missouri not brazil but yeah...

[JIBBBY]

Alex White is from Missouri not brazil but yeah...

Corrected thanks... Drrrrr.. Anyways - Thinking Alex White really hasn't fought anyone yet.. Martins has the experience and more UFC fights under his belt..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Alex-White-55954

[PaperTrail07]

Healy walks directly at people....that could be a problem in this fight IMO....I almost bet him but started to think about it more....I think he will land some good shots but lose the point battle...going G T by split decision in a close one

[PaperTrail07]

Fighting - 24302 D. Cerrone -255 for Game-$$$
Fighting - 24306 E. Barboza -240 for Game-Dunham could land a shot but Ill take my chances -240...-$$
Fighting - 24310 R. Story -285 for Game-$$$$$
Fighting - 24318 J. Lineker -285 for Game-maybe a bad bet lol...$
Fighting - 24321 A. White -160 for Game-$$$$
Fighting - 24338 J. Sanders -135 for Game -$$$

[Bumdeal]

So far I'm the opposite of you on everything except Sanders, Paper. Haven't made any bets yet though, still reviewing.

[Skel]

Alex White (10-0) vs Lucas Martins (14-1) - Liking the dog in this fight a little bit more at +140 in Lucas Martins... Thinking the O will go perhaps..... Reason being -

Couple of Brazilians going at it in this bout at featherweight - One is a Jits based fighter in Alex White against a MT based fighter in Lucas Martins.... Hmmmm?

(copy and Paste) Check....

Currently 2-1 in the UFC, Martins is on a two fight win streak, and is looking to work his way up in the division. He’s actually coming back up to featherweight after dipping down into the bantamweight pool. White, meanwhile, is coming off a victory in his UFC debut, a Performance of the Night KO over Estevan Payan.
While White has learned to use his hands and not rely solely on his jiu-jitsu, in which he’s a blue belt, he’d be best served to avoid striking and especially the clinch with the dangerous Martins.
White is a last-minute replacement due to an injury to original combatant Jim Alers, though the switch shouldn’t prove too difficult for Martins. Expect perhaps a TKO victory in this one..

======================================== ======================================== ==

Thinking maybe worth a dog play but I don't like that Martins is coming up in weight.. Hmmmm? Still both size up well though.. Like the striker in Martins at +140 in this one.... His only loss is to Edson Barboza so that's respectable..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Lucas-Martins-100031

Have you seen either of them fight?

[MD]

Have you seen either of them fight?

No, but Martins is looking really hungry at featherweight and White has an O that's got to go.