UFC 157 Rousey vs Carmouche (Feb 23)

[John Bugara]

For very different reasons.

For giving up top control to fighters who are not known to be a threat on the ground? I know big ben was real gassed in the 3rd against hunt and is probably a better grappler all around than lavar but I just don't think schaub will be able to get the td.

[NunyaBidness]

For giving up top control to fighters who are not known to be a threat on the ground? I know big ben was real gassed in the 3rd against hunt and is probably a better grappler all around than lavar but I just don't think schaub will be able to get the td.

Maybe, I'm not arguing that Schaub is an amazing bet. I think the better argument to make for him losing is not that he won't be able to get the takedown, but that he won't even try.

[NunyaBidness]

Love it!

164943883-1

2/23/13 3:17pm

$175.00

$100.00

Pending

2/23/13 6:30pm Props Fighting 12003 Ronda Rousey wins SUB of the Night -175*vs Not SUB of the Night Winner/no winner

[jakejd82]

Maybe, I'm not arguing that Schaub is an amazing bet. I think the better argument to make for him losing is not that he won't be able to get the takedown, but that he won't even try.

[jakejd82]

was thinking that sub of the night is even a better but then Rousey by Sub because you know if she wins via armbar dana will give her the bonus NO matter what

[NunyaBidness]

Yep, it's hard to construct a scenario where she gets the sub and not the award. Even if someone pulls off something amazing, he wants the eyes on Ronda. Not to mention, there's no real submission wizards on this card, a Faber guillotine or Schaub arm triangle aren't going to cut the mustard.

[v1y]

i took machida ko of of the night at +1300.

[Grabaka]

i took machida ko of of the night at +1300.

I like it, somehow. Although i have bets on Hendo KO & ML. GL

[Grabaka]

Yep, it's hard to construct a scenario where she gets the sub and not the award. Even if someone pulls off something amazing, he wants the eyes on Ronda. Not to mention, there's no real submission wizards on this card, a Faber guillotine or Schaub arm triangle aren't going to cut the mustard.

Indeed. If i had money left on 5dimes i would have joined the party. Can you lend me nunya?

[jakejd82]

Rousey sub of the night already up to -300. Thanks for the heads up Nunya, got it ahead of the inflation !

[NunyaBidness]

Indeed. If i had money left on 5dimes i would have joined the party. Can you lend me nunya?

I would if I didn't have everything maxed out on some basketball team I've never heard of.

[Educ8d Degener8]

I would if I didn't have everything maxed out on some basketball team I've never heard of.

Nunya bringing his a-game today...

Anyone else having problems logging into 5dimes?

[NunyaBidness]

Nunya bringing his a-game today...

Anyone else having problems logging into 5dimes?

Not me. Try propbet.com.

[Sacrelicious]

Nunya bringing his a-game today...

Anyone else having problems logging into 5dimes?

I was for a few minutes, it seems good now though.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Not me. Try propbet.com.

Nvm... finally just got in. Their server was probably max'd by all you dicks grabbing that Rousey SOTN line. F*ckers.

[Mastertvtech]

Lawler can stun Koscheck but if he gets taken down he's finished. I think there is some value on Robbie.

I think a lot of dogs will win tonight and my favorite dog is Lavar Johnson.

Lawler/Johnson/Hendo/villefort

[Sacrelicious]

Missed the Rousey SOTN line....

[Kermit]

I like Michael Chiesa at -190

[Sacrelicious]

I like Michael Chiesa at -190

My biggest straight play of the night. I love Chiesa at this price.

[PunisherIND]

I like Michael Chiesa at -190

No 5dimes? He's -175

[Kermit]

No 5dimes? He's -175

No, I don't have an account there.

[Kermit]

My biggest straight play of the night. I love Chiesa at this price.

Mine too.

[Sacrelicious]

No 5dimes? He's -175

Yeah at reduced, I foolishly figured a couple days money would actually come in on him more and took him at -190. Might put more on him closer to fight time though.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Did you look into the fight? Yuri's takedown defence looks considerably worse than Burrell's, and he's at a huge athletic, size, strength, and speed disadvantage.

Unless you're some sort of master of finding footage, I have absolutely no idea how you can be confident in a Yuri play. I scoured the net for footage on that fight, found one Yuri fight, where he got dominated by a mediocre opponent, and then saw that all of his wins were against guys with losing records, or who were debuting.

I was originally moderate-large on Burrell, but bought out of it a bit once I saw him miss weight. I was going to go large on him, but my lack of knowledge about Yuri combined with the short notice fight dissuaded me. Is this a fade, or are you betting on pure hype? Yuri got crushed by the first decent fighter he fought, and Burrell went 3-1 in Strikeforce.

Yuri's cardo is atrocious but he has a very clear route to victory, and that's to take Burrell down and submit him in the first round. He certainly has the potential to do that. If he doesn't, however, I fully expect Burrell to crush him.

Did you watch that fight against mulhern? I'd hardly call it crushed, it was a clear cut UD for mulhern (who is a huge prospect as well, a huge ww in size, and seems like a very talented and natural grappler), but it was a back and forth grappling war with both guys having their moments - fight finder doesn't tell the whole story man lol at crushed.

Considering burrell has no grappling base I don't see him as a takedown threat. But I'll admit, I've only seen the one fight on yuri and therefore yes I am betting mostly on hype and also stylistic comparison (its really not that hard to see why this match should clearly favor yuri, at least on paper). From what I've read about his pre-mma background tho - started off kickboxing and training judo, picked up wrestling and bjj very well too and he's trained exclusively at top gyms the last 3 years (he fuckedd up leaving ATT and going to Blackzillians, won't lie I am scared about the whole 'curse' thing with blackzillians) - I like how he matches up against burrell.

And if james terry, a guy not known whatsoever for wrestling or grappling, could man handle and grapple penetrate burrell, then I think yuri has a good chance to do so. And the majority consensus out there is that terry won that fight...

What evidence do you have that his cardio is attrocious? In his zuffa debut he slowed down in the third, but its not like he horribly gassed and couldn't move - it was a pretty competitive and grappling heavy 3rd round...But I have no evidence he has good cardio and I did read somewhere that his cardio is a question mark, but I wouldn't call his grappling heavy fight with mulhern a reason to say yuri has bad cardio.

It could definitely turn out to be a stupid play, but at near even money the price isn't too risky at all and imo the value is all villefort..Luckily I'm not going too huge on villefort and yes I'll be hating myself for betting on a guy I'll admit I've seen very little of and know very little of.

And how does burrell crush him, why you like him? You're confident a street fighter with no formal striking discipline before training mma is gonna outstrike a guy who has kickboxed since he was a young teen? I honestly think we could see yuri beat burrell everywhere, but imo his best bet is to take it to the ground. I have no idea how yuri's chin is and considering how hard burrell hits with his wild striking, I think yuri should be smart and make this a grapple heavy match.

GL tonight, I'll start listening to you a lot more if you're right about this and burrell crushes him. We'll find out in a few min!!! Gonna be a rough day for me if you're right lol!!!

[PunisherIND]

nunya do you have the youtube link for facebook prelims?

[NunyaBidness]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dpvkbCgm0k

Not sure why they always hide it, you have to click on browse videos, then events, then its almost always the first one.

[MD]

Did you watch that fight against mulhern? I'd hardly call it crushed, it was a clear cut UD for mulhern (who is a huge prospect as well, a huge ww in size, and seems like a very talented and natural grappler), but it was a back and forth grappling war with both guys having their moments - fight finder doesn't tell the whole story man lol at crushed.

Considering burrell has no grappling base I don't see him as a takedown threat. But I'll admit, I've only seen the one fight on yuri and therefore yes I am betting mostly on hype and also stylistic comparison (its really not that hard to see why this match should clearly favor yuri, at least on paper). From what I've read about his pre-mma background tho - started off kickboxing and training judo, picked up wrestling and bjj very well too and he's trained exclusively at top gyms the last 3 years (he fuckedd up leaving ATT and going to Blackzillians, won't lie I am scared about the whole 'curse' thing with blackzillians) - I like how he matches up against burrell.

And if james terry, a guy not known whatsoever for wrestling or grappling, could man handle and grapple penetrate burrell, then I think yuri has a good chance to do so. And the majority consensus out there is that terry won that fight...

What evidence do you have that his cardio is attrocious? In his zuffa debut he slowed down in the third, but its not like he horribly gassed and couldn't move - it was a pretty competitive and grappling heavy 3rd round...But I have no evidence he has good cardio and I did read somewhere that his cardio is a question mark, but I wouldn't call his grappling heavy fight with mulhern a reason to say yuri has bad cardio.

It could definitely turn out to be a stupid play, but at near even money the price isn't too risky at all and imo the value is all villefort..Luckily I'm not going too huge on villefort and yes I'll be hating myself for betting on a guy I'll admit I've seen very little of and know very little of.

And how does burrell crush him, why you like him? You're confident a street fighter with no formal striking discipline before training mma is gonna outstrike a guy who has kickboxed since he was a young teen? I honestly think we could see yuri beat burrell everywhere, but imo his best bet is to take it to the ground. I have no idea how yuri's chin is and considering how hard burrell hits with his wild striking, I think yuri should be smart and make this a grapple heavy match.

GL tonight, I'll start listening to you a lot more if you're right about this and burrell crushes him. We'll find out in a few min!!! Gonna be a rough day for me if you're right lol!!!

Uh, I watched the fight. It was scored a split-decision, so if I hadn't seen it, I wouldn't think it was a crushing.

He spent at least two rounds getting cleaned up. He had his moments in the first, though.

"He's trained exclusively at top gyms the last three years", LOL. He and his brother left ATT and rented a warehouse in Florida to train on their own in 2011. Are you being serious?

"And if james terry, a guy not known whatsoever for wrestling or grappling, could man handle and grapple penetrate burrell, then I think yuri has a good chance to do so. And the majority consensus out there is that terry won that fight..."

wat? James Terry is a wrestler. He wrestled collegiately for a long time.

I thought he gassed horrendously in the Mullhern fight. I thought it was absolutely terrible how badly he gassed.

I wouldn't feel too uncomfortable with my bet if I were you, I just don't think it was a smart bet. He could easily win. Any bets on Yuri are either due to inside information, weigh-in fading or hype. Unless there's some sort of black market tape dealer distributing Yuri's fights, those are the only viable causes, and betting on hype is a terrible way to 'cap fights; anyone can read an article on a fighter and what his team mates have to say about him.

Yuri has a really good shot tonight; I hope for your sake he wins. I don't have a lot on Burrell, so I'd rather see the forum (with which Yuri seems to be the consensus pick, other than from myself) do well. I legitimately think he's a square bet, but he can certainly win. And after those weigh-ins and the short-notice nature of the fight, he very well can.

[PunisherIND]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dpvkbCgm0k

Not sure why they always hide it, you have to click on browse videos, then events, then its almost always the first one.

nice, thanks!

[NunyaBidness]

Looks like the market's giving you a gift here MD. Better see some big ole bets.

[NunyaBidness]

Youtube feed a full minute ahead of the facebook stream yet again.

Must come in handy for Kush with his facebook live betting.

[Sacrelicious]

Thanks man, the stream on facebook still has not loaded for me yet, for some reason.

[MD]

Looks like the market's giving you a gift here MD. Better see some big ole bets.

I wish. Too much uncertainty to go larger. I really like Burrell generally, but there are too many variables here.

Give me this fight with a three-month camp and I may go Large.

EDIT: Actually, more on Burrell +145 and +139. Closer to a moderate bet now. Can't pass up that price.

[Sacrelicious]

Allright boys, here we go. Enjoy the card, make some dough, good luck all. And remember, dont go 50 percent in on mega favorites!

[proposition joe]

Thanks man, the stream on facebook still has not loaded for me yet, for some reason.

Same issue here..

[Grabaka]

Go to the youtube one