"Mousasi by sub or decision +400". Gus's chin is the most underrated in all of MMA, he could eat cannon balls for breakfast and would probably have no issue going toe to toe with Hendo, but in reality, if the fight were to commence with such a serious cut, a doctor's stoppage is a real possibility.
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Its canceled. MMAnytt says its confirmed. The cut will take weeks to heal and its a 5 rounder. Will not happenComment -
#RallyforJasonReinhardtComment -
No way putos.Comment -
Dana White must be pretty desperate now. Someones gonna get a Fight of the night bonus.Comment -
I honestly don't understand why people are betting on Couture. I really believe people are thinking "well, he might, maybe, possibly win, so at +300...". To say nothing of his immense striking edge, Pearson could lay all over Couture if he wanted to. It's a biblical mismatch.Comment -
Remember when people argued that the best lightweights were in the WEC, but everyone said the UFC lightweights would mop the floor with them.
Well, really, the Strikeforce lightweights are even better.Comment -
Pearson is no stud. He got taken down by Soti. Couture has a chin, a good amount of will and he will go straight forward against Person, he will eat some shots, move his head a bit and get a hold of him. He can press him against the cage, take him down, lay some shot and repeat. Many ways for Couture to win. Aint no biblical mismatch.
Pearson better earns Couture's respect fast or else he might go to deep waters and drown. Buttertooths are no deep water animals.Comment -
Ariel Helwani @arielhelwani 1m Hold up! @danawhite just told me @AlexTheMauler vs. @mousasi_mma is STILL ON. "The SAC has not said he can't fight + he wants to fight."Comment -
OH that is sweet!
Whos gonna lay it down on the moose now?Comment -
Cover up or do mmanytt now have 0 trust in the mma community?Comment -
Mousasi by cut stoppageComment -
Take Dana's word with a grain of salt. Until Gus gets cleared this is Jeremy Stephens all over again.Comment -
My book took the bet down, has Pickett/Easton in place of it. Lets hope its just temporary.Comment -
MD -- I think you're pretty sharp in most cases. I think you're underrating Couture. I was thinking the same thing until I watched Couture's recent events.
Here's how I've capped the fight:
Out the gate unanalyzed number: 75%(-300) (Range: 70% to 80%) win rate for Pearson.
After watching more tape -- here's how I've changed my opinion:
1. Heart
I think they're pretty close here. Couture showed a lot of heart in his last fight. He was rocked and really showed amazing composure staying in there and surviving.
Still: -300 Pearson
2. Striking Defense
This is where Couture has an edge. Most cappers look at striking skills and ignore striking defense. Couture's defensive foot work combined with how he protects his head with hands (more fighters should do what he's doing -- it's the smart way to fight).
Pearson tends to stay more flat footed and throw from there. His defense isn't that strong.
In terms of capping the fight -- Couture will look more busy in the eyes of the judges because of the way he will move around Pearson. Pearson will have to clearly beat him striking wise and overall to override "ring dominance" and "aggressiveness" in the eyes of the judges.
Big edge here for Couture: new odds for Pearson -250
3. Striking
I don't think a lot of us will argue that Pearson has the edge striking wise. He's a very crisp kick boxer.
That being said -- Couture has the "WILD MAN STRIKING EDGE". He love to throw lots of wild stuff and that has a few effects:
i) If it lands -- it can wow the judges.
ii) It can confuse the opponent.
I was also impressed with Couture's flurry when "they go at it". He stays focused and gets the best out of the exchanges sometimes.
Solid edge here for Pearson: new odds Pearson -275
3. FIGHT IQ
Gotta go with Couture here. First - he has one of the smartest fight strategist ever in his life, Randy. I'm sure they're going to come in with a rock solid plan. And from what we've seen -- he sticks with the plans.
Pearson just seems to go out and want to "out strike" his opponents. Nothing wrong with that except that it's not always the best strategy.
We could easily see Couture GRIND Pearson on the cage for 3 rounds and dirty box to victory (which would be my strategy).
Big edge here for Couture: new odds Pearson -225
4. Stand up grappling
Very few people talk about this part of fighting. It's essentially the clinch - dirty boxing - greco roman part of fighting.
Gotta go with Couture here. His father was one of the best of all time and I think we'll see Ryan go to this more and more as he gets confident in the ring.
Big edge here for Couture: new odds Pearson -215
5. Ground Grappling
I don't think it will be a factor except if Ryan lands on top of Pearson from a takedown and rides him for the round.
No edge here: same odds Pearson -215
6. Experience
Obviously Pearson's been in the game for longer.
Small edge here for Couture: new odds Pearson -225
7. Peaking vs. Fading
This is really BIG ONE.
I think Pearson is fading. Guy's done a few runs and just hasn't been able to beat a certain caliber of fighter. Got KOed by Cub. This really robs a fighters' confidence. They're usually never the same and fight timid.
Couture is on the other side of this chart. He's at the stage of development where he's making BIG, BIG skill jumps from fight to fight. If he continues on the same curve he's on... In a few fights from now -- people are going to be surprised.
This is obviously accelerated by his father as a coach and trainer.
Big edge here for Couture: new odds Pearson -200
8. Judging
This is the one that makes me nervous.
The fact that Randy and Dana are fighting is NOT making me feel too good about the judges. That's all I'll say on the forum about it.
Big edge here for Couture: new odds Pearson -225 and +225 for Couture.
Overall -- I think there's solid value on Couture. I could easily be wrong.
Final factor to cap will be the weigh-ins. Don't expect much to change since there hasn't been too many problems in the past making weight.
Should be a real war. Could be fight of the night.Comment -
Thats pretty much my thinking my good man The Calculator. Im never able to write down an extended analysis like yours without rambling tho. MD, try not to read my shitty post and read this man's.Comment -
Grab AKA what? I don't get it.Comment -
GRABAKA (グラバカ?) is a mixed martial arts training facility located in Nakano, Tokyo. The team was founded by ADCC Submission Wrestling World Champion Sanae Kikuta on June 28, 2000, with Eiji Ishikawa, Genki Sudo, and Hiroo Matsunaga as charter members. Since its founding, it has added to its ranks 2006 PRIDE Welterweight Grand Prix Champion Kazuo Misaki, and PRIDE/UFC veteran Akihiro Gono. The name is a contraction of the phrase "Grappling baka", baka being the Japanese word for "idiot or fool."[Comment -
Grappling fool ese!Comment -
Good breakdown. I cap the fight even closer. I dont think Coutoure should be that big of an underdog just based on his style. I dont have any numbers on quantity of faulty decisions at the moment, but its piling up as times goes by. This fight is close enough that you have to side with the underdog and couture got almost all the tools to look good in front of the judges. Its not about winning the actual fight from a betting perspective, forget about that. Coutures got high work rate, very good foot work, good cardio, good grappling skills, make big big leaps from fight to fight.Comment -
Good breakdown, Calc, I appreciate the insight. I understand the propensity for a bad judges' decision in Couture's favour, which is why I don't 'cap this fight as an even bigger mismatch than I already do, but the truth is, in terms of tangible advantages, I just don't see many for Couture. I don't think he'll be able to get consistent takedowns, I think he's a lot slower, a lot weaker, a lot less athletic than Pearson. He's clearly outmatched on the feet, he might not even be able to get back up if Pearson takes him down (and Pearson shoots for a lot of takedowns, let's not forget). He's also got solid upper-body wrestling, and the fight is at 155.
Melendez is going to get smoked by Henderson. Disagree?Comment -
Pearson > Noons > Couture = Couture by Unanimous Decision.Comment -
Grab AKA Gangster DaveComment -
Mousasi just said on the MMA Hour he has heard nothing of the cancellation, no mention of replacements, as far as his camp is concerned, the fight is still on.Comment -
Kennedy in?Comment -
Wand is inComment -
@ArielHelwani posted:BREAKING: "the SMMAF Medical Committee has today decided that Gustafsson will not be allowed to participate in the planned match on 4/6"
The SMMAF Medical Committee has today reviewed the circumstances regarding Gustafsson and his injury. The SMMAF Medical Committee recognizes that a competitor cannot be medically cleared earlier than the day before the match. However, bearing in mind that a correct medical examination that met the regulatory demands has been performed, nothing in the SMMAF regulations hinders the SMMAF Medical Committee from making a decision to stop Gustafsson from competing. As it is clear that Alexander Gustafsson will not be fit to compete as planned and cannot be medically cleared on Friday the 5th of April, the SMMAF Medical Committee has today decided that Alexander Gustafsson will not be allowed to participate in the planned match on April 6th.
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