UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Mousasi...

[Beelzebubzy]

One punch ftw over primordial hulk

[Hannibal]

I honestly do not believe that Gegard should be a 2-1 dog in this fight. These guys are the same age and Gegard has a ton more experience. I know this fight is in Gustafsson's backyard, but look how many hometown favorites end up losing.

gus is going to smoke gegard
people keep talking about gegard being the uncrowned king for years... how he is young and so talented and has so much potential
every time i watch him fight, he fails to live up to the hype. The hype is the only reason he is even a 2-1 dog.. and not 3-1
on the feet, gegard is really like a poor man's shogun. He plods along slowly with no sense of urgency. He looks good when he's against someone that is overmatched and he can just overwhelm with powerful strikes and combinations
he has a bit of a takedown and gnp game.. but that isnt at the level that can take down gus

gus has better boxing, distance control, and movement
i expect this to look like gus v shogun, except being easier for gus

[Sacrelicious]

I'm small on De Fries +275. I think he is absolutely the underdog here, but not a +275 dog, also a bit of a Blackzillian autofade.

[Sykes]

I like Gus/Pickett - Did like Easton until his last fight guy just looks ordinary. I think Pearson is good but his odds are to bad.

[Kermit]

gus is going to smoke gegard
people keep talking about gegard being the uncrowned king for years... how he is young and so talented and has so much potential
every time i watch him fight, he fails to live up to the hype. The hype is the only reason he is even a 2-1 dog.. and not 3-1
on the feet, gegard is really like a poor man's shogun. He plods along slowly with no sense of urgency. He looks good when he's against someone that is overmatched and he can just overwhelm with powerful strikes and combinations
he has a bit of a takedown and gnp game.. but that isnt at the level that can take down gus

gus has better boxing, distance control, and movement
i expect this to look like gus v shogun, except being easier for gus

I don't know about that. Gegard has beaten and finished quite a few well known guys when they were in their prime while Gustafsson's biggest victory is decisioning a Legend who is 5-5 in the UFC and on his last leg. I think Gus should be favored, but not as much as he is.

[Sacrelicious]

I don't know about that. Gegard has beaten and finished quite a few well known guys when they were in their prime while Gustafsson's biggest victory is decisioning a Legend who is 5-5 in the UFC and on his last leg. I think Gus should be favored, but not as much as he is.

I agree with this entirely. I capped Gus at about -180. At the current lines, I will likely play Gegard small.

[bjpenn85]

LOL. Mittrione has surprisingly bad takedown defence for being so "athletic". The fear of mattrione getting taken down and schooled is def there. Its with disappointment i have to side with the underdog and play de fries small.

[MD]

gus is going to smoke gegard
people keep talking about gegard being the uncrowned king for years... how he is young and so talented and has so much potential
every time i watch him fight, he fails to live up to the hype. The hype is the only reason he is even a 2-1 dog.. and not 3-1
on the feet, gegard is really like a poor man's shogun. He plods along slowly with no sense of urgency. He looks good when he's against someone that is overmatched and he can just overwhelm with powerful strikes and combinations
he has a bit of a takedown and gnp game.. but that isnt at the level that can take down gus

gus has better boxing, distance control, and movement
i expect this to look like gus v shogun, except being easier for gus

What you have to understand about Mousasi is that he's incredibly inconsistent (which is about the only thing he has in common with Shogun, in my opinion); that's probably the biggest reason for the line being as close as it is.

When he's "on form", he's a worldbeater. He's shown true greatness in every area. Gus should win, but Mousasi is no joke, and has a lot of tangible advantages. I personally dislike betting on inconsistent fighters, but I'll probably Mousasi if the odds climb at all.

[gabe]

What you have to understand about Mousasi is that he's incredibly inconsistent (which is about the only thing he has in common with Shogun, in my opinion); that's probably the biggest reason for the line being as close as it is.

When he's "on form", he's a worldbeater. He's shown true greatness in every area. Gus should win, but Mousasi is no joke, and has a lot of tangible advantages. I personally dislike betting on inconsistent fighters, but I'll probably Mousasi if the odds climb at all.

Yeah, nothing shown inconsistency like a 27 year old with a professional 28-3 record.

[gabe]

Yeah, nothing shown inconsistency like a 27 year old with a professional 28-3 record.

38-3****

[Vaughany]

Arguably got robbed against Jardine as well

[sideloaded]

gabe sucks everyones dick from gokor

[Vaughany]

Hairlarious! Armo's stick together

[Hannibal]

Hope you guys are right about the line..and mousasi sees more money

I think he is so overrated and is going to get clowned here.
Greatness in every area?? More like can smashing abilities. He is one of those guys that looks deceptively good when he is smashing turds but his true ability I am suspicious of. His bread and butter is his striking but he plods along in his movement.
His guard is nothing amazing...he's pretty much know for two guys falling into his guard. Kang, who is an idiot, and jacare who fell face first into an up kick.
Gegards probably best when he clinches with cans, drags them to the floor, and pounds the shit out of people that don't have the grappling abilty to be offensive or get up

[gabe]

lol i wouldn't bet on sako chivichyan or the otehr armo from tuf s11

[gabe]

Hope you guys are right about the line..and mousasi sees more money

I think he is so overrated and is going to get clowned here.
Greatness in every area?? More like can smashing abilities. He is one of those guys that looks deceptively good when he is smashing turds but his true ability I am suspicious of. His bread and butter is his striking but he plods along in his movement.
His guard is nothing amazing...he's pretty much know for two guys falling into his guard. Kang, who is an idiot, and jacare who fell face first into an up kick.
Gegards probably best when he clinches with cans, drags them to the floor, and pounds the shit out of people that don't have the grappling abilty to be offensive or get up

move that gustafsson line to -500

[sideloaded]

lol i wouldn't bet on sako chivichyan or the otehr armo from tuf s11

thank god

[Vaughany]

lol i wouldn't bet on sako chivichyan or the otehr armo from tuf s11

ha was Magakian the other one? Cant believe that had more than 1 token Armenian in tht series! Maybe they thought they'd create some exciting scenes...like waxing each-other's butt hair off or sumin

[gabe]

ha was Magakian the other one? Cant believe that had more than 1 token Armenian in tht series! Maybe they thought they'd create some exciting scenes...like waxing each-other's butt hair off or sumin

they were good for makin fun of dat phan for wankin in the shower

[gabe]

they were good for makin fun of dat phan for wankin in the shower

lmao nam phan**

dat phan is a comedian

[Sacrelicious]

Hope you guys are right about the line..and mousasi sees more money

I think he is so overrated and is going to get clowned here.
Greatness in every area?? More like can smashing abilities. He is one of those guys that looks deceptively good when he is smashing turds but his true ability I am suspicious of. His bread and butter is his striking but he plods along in his movement.
His guard is nothing amazing...he's pretty much know for two guys falling into his guard. Kang, who is an idiot, and jacare who fell face first into an up kick.
Gegards probably best when he clinches with cans, drags them to the floor, and pounds the shit out of people that don't have the grappling abilty to be offensive or get up

Hunt, Souza and Lombard are can??? Oh, okay...

No really, Gus should win this fight, but at current lines (which I will assume can only get better by fight night) small on Gegard is the play to make.

[Vaughany]

lmao nam phan**

dat phan is a comedian

lol I thought you were just speaking like a dirty South homeboi! Dat my niqqa homie

[Sacrelicious]

lol I thought you were just speaking like a dirty South homeboi! Dat my niqqa homie

Dude, its the 2000s, the PC term is "negro", for penetrate sake, get with the times man.

[Hannibal]

He beat souza, who was dominating the fight with his grappling until he dived into an upkick
Lombard was not far into his career and not far removed from being armbarred by gono. Even after all these yrs later at ATT lombard still massively overrated. Just not that good.
Hunt was always losing to guys that straight up grappled him. Even now he is no different, but been on a streak cause guys fight him at his strengths

[Sacrelicious]

He beat souza, who was dominating the fight with his grappling until he dived into an upkick
Lombard was not far into his career and not far removed from being armbarred by gono. Even after all these yrs later at ATT lombard still massively overrated. Just not that good.
Hunt was always losing to guys that straight up grappled him. Even now he is no different, but been on a streak cause guys fight him at his strengths

I do not disagree with you, Gus SHOULD win this fight, but I see value in the current Gegard line, as stated, I capped Gus at about -180.

[bjpenn85]

Anyone capped Peralta vs Corossani?

[Vaughany]

Anyone capped Peralta vs Corossani?

Peralta -225 for me

[bjpenn85]

Im very soon to put a wager on peralta i think. Corossani lost against ogle in my opinion. Not in hell if he wins against this cat. at -166 i should have made a bet. Im curious to see if i can get a better line than -200 were currently the odds sit at my book. What do you think V? Wil kalikas give me any better than -200?

[Vaughany]

Im very soon to put a wager on peralta i think. Corossani lost against ogle in my opinion. Not in hell if he wins against this cat. at -166 i should have made a bet. Im curious to see if i can get a better line than -200 were currently the odds sit at my book. What do you think V? Wil kalikas give me any better than -200?

You'll be lucky bud! I believe he opened Akira as a +160 dog against Ogle! So if he thinks he should be +160 against Ogle then Im thinking it will be twice as bad against Peralta! I'd of maxi-bet tht Unibet line too if I could bet more than 5 squidz!

[bjpenn85]

true. Im rewatching corossani vs ogle. corossani easily bets ogle standing up for the first two rounds..having me a little bit hesitant wagering in on peralta hmm..watching round 3 now..penetrate.

[Vaughany]

Not to say that Ogle is a better fighter than Akira...but I think Corrasani's experience played a big part in tht fight. Ogle looked like he was going to burst out crying at any moment from the pressure of his first fight in UFC in front of home crowd. Akira has been around for ever so dont think he was as fazed by it all.

[bjpenn85]

True. I made a medium sized bet on Peralta now at -200. I think its the correct side, he has a more well rounded standup game, and hopefully he is active enough to remove any doubt in the judges eyes of whos winning. Peralta could easily finish him as well and thats why im more positive backing him at these odds.

[fitguy67]

I'm small on De Fries +275. I think he is absolutely the underdog here, but not a +275 dog, also a bit of a Blackzillian autofade.

the MMA market is not even close to razor sharp yet...so you can't be afraid to just take the damn "gift horse" prices when it's there...

look at Burkman +230 last night and Shamalev over +200 a few weeks ago...and both Bader and Texeira lines were strongly undervalued in Rampage's last two fights, as was Machida against Hendo

to a much larger extent than major team sports...the MMA market is casual-fan driven, so "crowd psychology" perception can take prices further "off centre" and keep them there longer, cuz there's much less big, syndicated sharp money acting as a counter-weight

as an example...even after Rampage broke the scale at weigh-in, his price didn't soften...so the bargain on Bader persisted...might have looked like a trap...but it wasn't...in an immature market like MMA, imperfections can and do exist, persist, and even intensify...that is great for us

if you are reasonably objective (aka. sharp) it's great that the MMA market is far from efficient...don't expect it to be, for quite a while yet...these are STILL the golden days of MMA betting (but, regrettably, becoming decreasingly so as all markets that grow with time, sharpen with time...but relative to major team sports...I stand by that statement)...without big organized sharp pools of cash to whittle down any shifts in value before you have a chance to even log into your book (again this is becoming decreasingly true with time...but relative to big team-sport markets...this is STILL the happy hunting ground for value)

for a major team-sport...if it looks to good to be true...it probably is...the market has lots of opportunistic sharp-money actively scavenging edges constantly...so the expression "the market has already discounted that" generally holds

but this is MMA...and VERY often the market price is surprisingly off-centre...presenting large gifts on one side

_________

So if it looks like dozens and dozens of points of value may be there on DeFries...they very well may be...cuz MMA--bless it's soul--is FAR from razor-sharp...

(and fading the Blackzillians--with the obvious exception of Rumble--is a nice additional +EV touch)

[Vrakas]

easy way to make money.gus not to finish -170.mousasi should be the favorite to win this one.if he geys robbed which is possible he will never get finished.

[Vaughany]

the MMA market is not even close to razor sharp yet...so you can't be afraid to just take the damn "gift horse" prices when it's there...

look at Burkman +230 last night and Shamalev over +200 a few weeks ago...and both Bader and Texeira lines were strongly undervalued in Rampage's last two fights, as was Machida against Hendo

to a much larger extent than major team sports...the MMA market is casual-fan driven, so "crowd psychology" perception can take prices further "off centre" and keep them there longer, cuz there's much less big, syndicated sharp money acting as a counter-weight

as an example...even after Rampage broke the scale at weigh-in, his price didn't soften...so the bargain on Bader persisted...might have looked like a trap...but it wasn't...in an immature market like MMA, imperfections can and do exist, persist, and even intensify...that is great for us

if you are reasonably objective (aka. sharp) it's great that the MMA market is far from efficient...don't expect it to be, for quite a while yet...these are the golden days of MMA betting...without big organized sharp pools of cash to whittle down any shifts in value before you have a chance to even log into your book

for a major team-sport...if it looks to good to be true...it probably is...the market has lots of opportunistic sharp-money actively scavenging edges constantly...so the expression "the market has already discounted that" generally holds

but this is MMA...and VERY often the market price is surprisingly off-centre...presenting large gifts on one side

_________

So if it looks like dozens and dozens of points of value may be there on DeFries...they very well may be...cuz MMA--bless it's soul--is FAR from razor-sharp...

(and fading the Blackzillians--with the obvious exception of Rumble--is a nice additional +EV touch)

Are you sure about that? Bader was like +135 by fight time... http://bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-...-henderson-477

And Im not sure about these being the "golden days of MMA betting" anymore, lines are a lot sharper than they were 2-4 years ago, and also fighters are a lot more well-rounded nowadays so less mis-matches, and more are well-known now due to all the media and online footage/forums. Gone are the days when you could get somebody like Mayday McDonald at -130 against Clint Godfrey!