Grabaka's winnerz and 95% locks

[Grabaka]

2/11/13 3:19pm	$50.00	$107.50	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	2/16/13 5:30pm UFC Fighting 1002 Renan Barão -320* vs Michael McDonald
				Pending	2/16/13 4:00pm UFC Fighting 1301 Jorge Santiago/Gunnar Nelson Over 2½ +140*

[DirtyX]

Grabaka going huge on Swanson I see... My boy BetMasta is also big on him, although he got him at the -140 range I believe... Man, I really cap that fight at evens and I am going to stay away, but def can't knock you for playing Cub here, especially at -125. I personally think people may be over excited about how well Cub has fought as of late, and how bad Dustin has fought. I think it's def FOTN potential. Coin flip imo. GL.

[MD]

I just layed 450 on Dantas too an hour ago. Barao is a leg in some small parlays too.

We need to be on the same side more often buddy. #allweseeissquid

[MD]

Grabaka going huge on Swanson I see... My boy BetMasta is also big on him, although he got him at the -140 range I believe... Man, I really cap that fight at evens and I am going to stay away, but def can't knock you for playing Cub here, especially at -125. I personally think people may be over excited about how well Cub has fought as of late, and how bad Dustin has fought. I think it's def FOTN potential. Coin flip imo. GL.

Honestly, the more footage I watch, the more confident I get that Swanson will destroy Poirier. It all smells like a steamrolling. My gut, however, tells me Poirier is going to win. I can't stop feeling it and it's really stopping me from betting bigger on Swanson. I try to base all of my wagers on reason rather than instinct, but I'm going to err on the side of caution in this fight.

[Grabaka]

Honestly, the more footage I watch, the more confident I get that Swanson will destroy Poirier. It all smells like a steamrolling. My gut, however, tells me Poirier is going to win. I can't stop feeling it and it's really stopping me from betting bigger on Swanson. I try to base all of my wagers on reason rather than instinct, but I'm going to err on the side of caution in this fight.

Grabaka going huge on Swanson I see... My boy BetMasta is also big on him, although he got him at the -140 range I believe... Man, I really cap that fight at evens and I am going to stay away, but def can't knock you for playing Cub here, especially at -125. I personally think people may be over excited about how well Cub has fought as of late, and how bad Dustin has fought. I think it's def FOTN potential. Coin flip imo. GL.

I feel really really strong about this play too at those odds. Im stopping myself from adding even more. I feel like i could be underestimating Poirier skills but i dont see him being able to do much. Im kinda nervous to see some people on Poirier tho.

[Grabaka]

We need to be on the same side more often buddy. #allweseeissquid

Well done bro.

[Sacrelicious]

Honestly, the more footage I watch, the more confident I get that Swanson will destroy Poirier. It all smells like a steamrolling. My gut, however, tells me Poirier is going to win. I can't stop feeling it and it's really stopping me from betting bigger on Swanson. I try to base all of my wagers on reason rather than instinct, but I'm going to err on the side of caution in this fight.

The under is the play to make.

[Vaughany]

Honestly, the more footage I watch, the more confident I get that Swanson will destroy Poirier. It all smells like a steamrolling. My gut, however, tells me Poirier is going to win. I can't stop feeling it and it's really stopping me from betting bigger on Swanson. I try to base all of my wagers on reason rather than instinct, but I'm going to err on the side of caution in this fight.

Exactly same as I feel. Swanson has the edge almost everywhere IMO but something keeps telling me that POirier could pull it out of the bag somehow

[Vaughany]

I feel really really strong about this play too at those odds. Im stopping myself from adding even more. I feel like i could be underestimating Poirier skills but i dont see him being able to do much. Im kinda nervous to see some people on Poirier tho.

Majority of people on sherdog seem to think that Poirier is going to submit Swanson and I've even seen some saying things like "if it goes to the ground it's all over for Swanson" which just seems ridiculous ignorant to me! People seem to think he's a grappling whiz because he's had some nice submissions but dont appear to be considering who he's submitted and how they came about

[Bagalut]

Im really confident in Swanson. Poirier will get knocked the penetrate out!

[Grabaka]

Majority of people on sherdog seem to think that Poirier is going to submit Swanson and I've even seen some saying things like "if it goes to the ground it's all over for Swanson" which just seems ridiculous ignorant to me! People seem to think he's a grappling whiz because he's had some nice submissions but dont appear to be considering who he's submitted and how they came about

Good. Great to know where the steam is coming from. I agree thats just ridiculous. I dont see how Poirier gets it to the ground and keeps position, Swanson is strong as penetrate. Also i dont see the ground disparity and if theres one the striking disparity is wider.

[Vaughany]

I wrote a rambling wall-of-text about Swanson/Poirier on sherdog but cant find the original post. Somebody broke it down in to a shortened summary and easier to read version though!..

Breakdown of the thread so far. Credit Vaughny.


Regarding Poirier, his sub wins look rather slick but IMO they have mostly been due his opponent's mistakes or lack of ability.

Holloway was very raw and a "fish-out-of-water" when he ended up on his back. Showed all the markings of a typical white-belt! Holloway was making his debut in UFC and took the fight on very short notice.

Brookins admitted he was defeated before he got into the octagon and was looking for a way out.

Subbing Garza looked great. Although he has solid offensive BJJ, he was very raw in submission defence as the Zhang fight demonstrated.

Swanson has some defensive deficiencies, but that submission loss to Lamas doesnt look too bad now, and Swanson did win the first round.

Swanson was winning Grappler's Quest tournaments when POirier was just starting to fight as a Pro! Swanson won't be making novice errors like Poirier's previous opponents have.

In terms of striking Swanson has the edge. Despite Poirier's move to ATT, the Brookins fight showed he hasn't evolved his striking game, and actually looked really sloppy and wild at times. His footwork was all over the place and he was lunging in with big overhand rights. Rogan was nearly having a seizure at one point over Poirier fighting with his chin sticking out and hands down low! Brookins did slightly rock Dustin but didnt have the power or precision in his punches to do any damage.

Swanson has the ability to take advantage of Poirier's technical deficiencies, especially with his counter hooks which I could see him landing at will if POirier's fights like he did against Brookins.

Finally, I have concerns about Poirier's cardio and think Swanson will have the edge there as well.

My only real concern with betting Swanson is that he does tend to get casual and cocky. Now that he's on this great win streak he may under-estimate Poirier. Poirer over-rated IMO and still quite rough around the edges but he has a great desire to win and keep improving.

[DirtyX]

Honestly, the more footage I watch, the more confident I get that Swanson will destroy Poirier. It all smells like a steamrolling. My gut, however, tells me Poirier is going to win. I can't stop feeling it and it's really stopping me from betting bigger on Swanson. I try to base all of my wagers on reason rather than instinct, but I'm going to err on the side of caution in this fight.

Totally agree with your logic regarding betting with your brain/reason rather than your gut/instinct... However I do feel there are times where you should listen to your gut, even if everything else points in the other direction. I feel the same way with Bankroll management; sometimes you have to go huge and break the rules of BRM, (no plays bigger than 5% of your bankroll) if you really feel strongly about a line...

Sometimes, when making my plays, I do so before I even go on SBR or Sherdog. This seems to help me because I don't have everyone else's opinion's clouding my judgement.. Not to say getting feedback is a bad thing, I just think if you've been betting/capping MMA for a long time, you should make your plays on your own for the most part. That's my opinion anyway....

[NunyaBidness]

Majority of people on sherdog seem to think that Poirier is going to submit Swanson and I've even seen some saying things like "if it goes to the ground it's all over for Swanson" which just seems ridiculous ignorant to me! People seem to think he's a grappling whiz because he's had some nice submissions but dont appear to be considering who he's submitted and how they came about

Wikipedia don't lie, son!

[sideloaded]

shertard hero,
shertard too strong

[Grabaka]

UFC ON FUEL 7

513.00 on Cub Swanson @ -128.25
250.00 on Stanislav Nedkov @ +100.00
240.00 on Paul Sass @ -120.00
150.00 on Phil Harris @ +185.00
125.00 on Josh Grispi @ -125.00
100.00 on Matt Riddle @ +190.00
100.00 on Motonobu Tezuka @ +160.00

50.00 on Diabate Dec @ +560.00
50.00 on Jimmo Dec @ +418.00

50.00 on Dantas + Sass + Barao @ +260.90
50.00 on Santiago vs Nelson O2.5 + Barao @ +215.00
20.00 on Santiago vs Nelson O2.5 + Thompson @ +1700.00
12.00 on Cooper + Aliev + Nelson Dec + Gomez vs Harris Dec + McD/Barao Starts Round 3 + Manu/Diab Starts Round 2 + Tehu/Jimmo Starts Round 2 + @ +5237.58
11.00 on Barao + Cooper + Nelson Dec @ +615.54

[sideloaded]

240.00 on Paul Sass @ -120.00

[Grabaka]

240.00 on Paul Sass @ -120.00

Just that one Mcfan? Dont make me nervous

[Catchn_Picks]

Nice looking card Grabaka...Cub well above average ability at popping up off the mat...could come in handy

gl all

[sideloaded]

Just that one Mcfan? Dont make me nervous

haha, swanson, nelson and sass look good to me, these fuel cards are always interesting gambling wise

[Vaughany]

Wikipedia don't lie, son!

lol turns out it does! it's not as fool-proof as we'd been thinking!

[Vaughany]

I wrote a rambling wall-of-text about Swanson/Poirier on sherdog but cant find the original post. Somebody broke it down in to a shortened summary and easier to read version though!..

Breakdown of the thread so far. Credit Vaughny.


Regarding Poirier, his sub wins look rather slick but IMO they have mostly been due his opponent's mistakes or lack of ability.

Holloway was very raw and a "fish-out-of-water" when he ended up on his back. Showed all the markings of a typical white-belt! Holloway was making his debut in UFC and took the fight on very short notice.

Brookins admitted he was defeated before he got into the octagon and was looking for a way out.

Subbing Garza looked great. Although he has solid offensive BJJ, he was very raw in submission defence as the Zhang fight demonstrated.

Swanson has some defensive deficiencies, but that submission loss to Lamas doesnt look too bad now, and Swanson did win the first round.

Swanson was winning Grappler's Quest tournaments when POirier was just starting to fight as a Pro! Swanson won't be making novice errors like Poirier's previous opponents have.

In terms of striking Swanson has the edge. Despite Poirier's move to ATT, the Brookins fight showed he hasn't evolved his striking game, and actually looked really sloppy and wild at times. His footwork was all over the place and he was lunging in with big overhand rights. Rogan was nearly having a seizure at one point over Poirier fighting with his chin sticking out and hands down low! Brookins did slightly rock Dustin but didnt have the power or precision in his punches to do any damage.

Swanson has the ability to take advantage of Poirier's technical deficiencies, especially with his counter hooks which I could see him landing at will if POirier's fights like he did against Brookins.

Finally, I have concerns about Poirier's cardio and think Swanson will have the edge there as well.

My only real concern with betting Swanson is that he does tend to get casual and cocky. Now that he's on this great win streak he may under-estimate Poirier. Poirer over-rated IMO and still quite rough around the edges but he has a great desire to win and keep improving.

lol had to take a few minutes today to clown on some of the shertards who were saying that Poirier was gonna tool Swanson once he got to the ground!

[Vaughany]

UFC ON FUEL 7

513.00 on Cub Swanson @ -128.25
250.00 on Stanislav Nedkov @ +100.00
240.00 on Paul Sass @ -120.00
150.00 on Phil Harris @ +185.00
125.00 on Josh Grispi @ -125.00
100.00 on Matt Riddle @ +190.00
100.00 on Motonobu Tezuka @ +160.00

50.00 on Diabate Dec @ +560.00
50.00 on Jimmo Dec @ +418.00

50.00 on Dantas + Sass + Barao @ +260.90
50.00 on Santiago vs Nelson O2.5 + Barao @ +215.00
20.00 on Santiago vs Nelson O2.5 + Thompson @ +1700.00
12.00 on Cooper + Aliev + Nelson Dec + Gomez vs Harris Dec + McD/Barao Starts Round 3 + Manu/Diab Starts Round 2 + Tehu/Jimmo Starts Round 2 + @ +5237.58
11.00 on Barao + Cooper + Nelson Dec @ +615.54

damnn bro....Diabate's sprained ankle or whatever the fuuck it was screwed you big time. Bad luck homie. Least our boy Swanson got it done. Unlucky with Nedkov as well..thought he was gonna finish Watson as ref looked like he was gonna stop it at one point

[Grabaka]

damnn bro....Diabate's sprained ankle or whatever the fuuck it was screwed you big time. Bad luck homie. Least our boy Swanson got it done. Unlucky with Nedkov as well..thought he was gonna finish Watson as ref looked like he was gonna stop it at one point

Yeah man that tardlay was too close to hit.
I did, as usual, a ton of live betting but this time it didnt work as a charm.

UFC on Fuel 7: -$74.50
Overall weekend: +315.50

[sideloaded]

damn just watched a castillo interview, he said that heel hook sass had was real deep and he almost tapped

[GigaOuts]

I was going to try live betting but can't find it on 5dimes. What site can you do live betting and where does it locate at?

Giga

[MD]

I was going to try live betting but can't find it on 5dimes. What site can you do live betting and where does it locate at?

Giga

In the sportsbook menu, along with the "UFC", "Bellator", "Props", "MMA", etc. check boxes, there will be a "Live in Play" check box when events with live wagering are occurring.

[sideloaded]

remember if you are watching a stream live betting will be down because there is a large lag.

[Grabaka]

damn just watched a castillo interview, he said that heel hook sass had was real deep and he almost tapped

Nobody expected him to LnP for 3 rounds against Sassangle. Castillo bettors got kinda lucky IMO. They expected him to sprawl n brawl.

[Grabaka]

In the sportsbook menu, along with the "UFC", "Bellator", "Props", "MMA", etc. check boxes, there will be a "Live in Play" check box when events with live wagering are occurring.

Yep, but just between rounds there. So as Bodog.

[MMAbetMASTA]

UFC ON FUEL 7

513.00 on Cub Swanson @ -128.25
250.00 on Stanislav Nedkov @ +100.00
240.00 on Paul Sass @ -120.00
150.00 on Phil Harris @ +185.00
125.00 on Josh Grispi @ -125.00
100.00 on Matt Riddle @ +190.00
100.00 on Motonobu Tezuka @ +160.00

50.00 on Diabate Dec @ +560.00
50.00 on Jimmo Dec @ +418.00

50.00 on Dantas + Sass + Barao @ +260.90
50.00 on Santiago vs Nelson O2.5 + Barao @ +215.00
20.00 on Santiago vs Nelson O2.5 + Thompson @ +1700.00
12.00 on Cooper + Aliev + Nelson Dec + Gomez vs Harris Dec + McD/Barao Starts Round 3 + Manu/Diab Starts Round 2 + Tehu/Jimmo Starts Round 2 + @ +5237.58
11.00 on Barao + Cooper + Nelson Dec @ +615.54

damn son!!! diabate's busted calf ruined that gem of a parlay... I was reading it play by play thinking wholy shit he's gonna hit this and the last one spells doom.. what a bust shitty.

Bummer man, props for almost hitting that tho that's really impressive

[Grabaka]

Moneylines:
$280.00 on Yuri Villefort @ -112
$50.00 on Kenny Robertson @ +150

Props:
$107.50 on Fodor vs Stout O2.5 @ -215
$100.00 on Dan Henderson KO @ +400
$100.00 on Anton Kuivanen Dec @ +455
$100.00 on Kenny Robertson Dec @ +255
$80.00 on Dennis Bermudez Dec @ +127
$80.00 on Caros Fodor Dec @ +100
$50.00 on Robertson vs Jardine O2.5 @ +130

Tardlays:
$50.00 Zayats + Mcgee + Hendo KO @ +864
$25.00 on Knicks + Zayats + Roth vs Gonz ITD + Not Roussey R1 @ +2,821

[Sacrelicious]

Solid plays, I like the props a lot. I'm a bit concerned about my play on Machida, logically I think he is the best choice but hog analysis would, I think, suggest otherwise.

I may hedge out on Hendo by KO a bit, I think the line will only get better by tomorrow afternoon.

[Grabaka]

Solid plays, I like the props a lot. I'm a bit concerned about my play on Machida, logically I think he is the best choice but hog analysis would, I think, suggest otherwise.

I may hedge out on Hendo by KO a bit, I think the line will only get better by tomorrow afternoon.

He drink his own pee....no alpha does that like defacto would say. Safe to asume Hendo has the hog edge.

[Fragoel2]

Nice picks

Right now Henderson ITD is higher than Henderson by KO... lol