UFC on FX 7: Belfort Vs Bisping (Jan 19)

[Crassus]

Thanks for the reply.

I see where you're coming from to an extent. Gonzaga is his own worst enemy for sure, one of those guys who's somehow worse than the sum of his parts. And Rothwell did look GREATLY improved physically in his last fight, but I didn't see that translate into his performance; up until the ko shot he was looking absolutely horrible; the usual slow and lumbering (lack of) footwork whilst getting lit-up.

Not planning on going mental on him or anything, not super-confident as I would't be incredibly surprised to see GG laid out again, but I still feel Gonzaga wins at least 2/3 times and for me is the play here. =]

In fairness, Schaub is a tough opponent for a lot of heavyweights. Yes he doesn't have the best chin but he is a very strong puncher with a good offensive striking. He's in my opinion a much better offensive striker than Gonzaga, and a rough match-up for Rothwell.

Gonzaga is a solid pick at these odds, especially with MMA the variables people use to calculate chance of success can vary so wildly that sometimes both sides make a ton of sense to bet on. I just really think Rothwells got this one in the bag.

[KushMoney]

Fukk Capping the fight. take Rothwell's record into account and FADE


Ben Rothwell goes Win,Loss,Win,Loss,Win,Loss,Win


Also into account that Rothwell isn't a great Stand-up fighter, no foot work, just circles a little, bobs around a little, looks to pin his opponent against the fence and waits to trade. He's a grappler.

Gonzaga's has a more explosive and varying series of strikes and IMO has a more technical BJJ game.

Rothwell has a better chin.


Gonzaga in his home country, will have judges advantage if it goes there.


Gonzaga. Decision. Since neither fighter is that good, can both take damage, likely take the match to the ground, and both haven't fought to a decision ina minute, I'd say they both due for a decision.

[KushMoney]

Rothwell via Decision +260
Rothwell ITD +185
Gonzaga via Decision +210
Gonzaga ITD +135

[Sacrelicious]

"Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss" is, in theory, a nonsensical handicapping theorem.

Gonzaga wins, but for different reasons then that. Hopefully we both cash...

[MD]

"Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss" is, in theory, a nonsensical handicapping theorem.

Gonzaga wins, but for different reasons then that. Hopefully we both cash...

I think you mean "in reality".

But hey, they're due for a decision, so what do I know.

[KushMoney]

"Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss" is, in theory, a nonsensical handicapping theorem.

Gonzaga wins, but for different reasons then that. Hopefully we both cash...

Not really man, but like I said. Fukk capping tha fight. This shit is too obvious. Rothwell is a bad bet in Brazil.

Some athletes, teams, clubs, just fail to perform well back to back and to take notice of this can save your ass outta making bad bet.. (Betting on a team/fighter that hasn't won 2 in row in a while, See: Jim Millers next fight)


Guess I'm just too used to dealing with streaks n shit, been betting other sports and this happens wayy too often.

Goodluck.

Rothwell is a bad bet.

Sorry if I offended anyone with Units already on Rothwell... cuz We all on the same team. Fukk the books.

[Sacrelicious]

Nah your not offending me, I'm also on Gonzaga, heres hoping we both made it dude.

[Sacrelicious]

I think you mean "in reality".

But hey, they're due for a decision, so what do I know.

Well.... "reality" is sort of a "theory" if we are to get into fractal mathematical digressions, and perhaps some light quantum physics, but I shall refrain.....

[Mercersux]

So someone was saying Sarafin opened @ +145 and now he's sitting at -175 on 5D. I think I'd take a small flyer on Dolloway @ +155 for a boring 3 rd lay and pray. I get where all the love is coming from for Sarafin and it is in his backyard, but has he really done anything to warrant being the favorite in this spot?

[Thor4140]

Those were tough opponents. How'd he do? He's clearly been given a lot of favorable matchups to build him up as they try to expand into england... Those are his wins. The mayhems, dan millers, jorge riveras. He doesn't have many wins over current ufc fighters.. Just Stann (who's also given favorable matchups to build a military fanbase) and leben who is probably on his way out the door.

i agree and i agree about Stann but u made it sound like he didn't fight anyone tough. Most thought he beat Sonnen and was beating hendo until the punch. Some thought he beat Wandy. I do think a lot of people including Dana hope he loses against Vitor because Silva is a terrible matchup for Bisping. Not sure many will buy it with other big bouts out there for Silva but than again maybe they would. Some love to see Bisping get his ass beat and think it is well worth the 70 bucks.

[Sacrelicious]

So someone was saying Sarafin opened @ +145 and now he's sitting at -175 on 5D. I think I'd take a small flyer on Dolloway @ +155 for a boring 3 rd lay and pray. I get where all the love is coming from for Sarafin and it is in his backyard, but has he really done anything to warrant being the favorite in this spot?

not particlarly. I managed to get him at -120, any lower seems like a donk bet.

[Crassus]

Sorry if I offended anyone with Units already on Rothwell... cuz We all on the same team. Fukk the books.

No worries mate. But we're not all on the same team, we're actually all after each others money. Sportsbetting is, for bettors at least, is a zero sum game. Every cent we make from gambling is basically being taken from other gamblers who bet the other side.

[Beelzebubzy]

No worries mate. But we're not all on the same team, we're actually all after each others money. Sportsbetting is, for bettors at least, is a zero sum game. Every cent we make from gambling is basically being taken from other gamblers who bet the other side.

This argument hasn't been on this board for a while
cant wait to see it happen again

[Vaughany]

Sarafian +125 on ladbrokes for any one who can use tht book! Will probably be voided tho...could argue tht he did open a dog

[Crassus]

This argument hasn't been on this board for a while
cant wait to see it happen again

Am I making some sort of mistake?

[oddtodd]

Sarafian +125 on ladbrokes for any one who can use tht book! Will probably be voided tho...could argue tht he did open a dog

thanks for the heads up. sadly, when I logged onto my account I see that they have already limited me to 32$$ on this event, and my limits appear to be drastically down elsewhere as well. Being a tennis better fukkin sucks, if books don't like my tennis action, why do they have to limit me on every other event as well!!

[The Fobfather]

So someone was saying Sarafin opened @ +145 and now he's sitting at -175 on 5D. I think I'd take a small flyer on Dolloway @ +155 for a boring 3 rd lay and pray. I get where all the love is coming from for Sarafin and it is in his backyard, but has he really done anything to warrant being the favorite in this spot?

I like Dolloway @ +155. I feel like those that like Sarafian are expecting a combination of much improved TDD from Sarafian and ultra quick stand ups by the refs being swayed by the Pro-Brazilian crowd.

Even if both things turn out to be true, I still think Dolloway has a solid shot. Sarafian will be much more tentative on the feet once Dolloway establishes the TD threat.

[JKD]

Sarafian +125 on ladbrokes for any one who can use tht book! Will probably be voided tho...could argue tht he did open a dog

Nice thanks, put 100 on so it doesn't flag up as unusual. I don't think any of the other UK books have it out yet, so might be ok. I got Nurmagamedov @+125 on Paddy, and Lentz@+175 .. sometimes it's more that they're retarded than posting the up wrong I think.

[Vaughany]

Nice thanks, put 100 on so it doesn't flag up as unusual. I don't think any of the other UK books have it out yet, so might be ok. I got Nurmagamedov @+125 on Paddy, and Lentz@+175 .. sometimes it's more that they're retarded than posting the up wrong I think.

yeah agree

[Dwil125]

Pedro Nobre (a flyweight) replaces Roop

I really wanted to take alcantara against roop, I bet the odds are going to be crazy on alcantara now

[Vaughany]

Chael Sonnen: "This is a fight well matched. Bisping is the favorite. He has more ways to win, he is a much better kickboxer and has more weapons to win. He also can win in any round or win by points. Vitor has only five minutes during which he is the most dangerous guy, but after that, it's not the same animal. I tease and make jokes about Vitor all the time because someone needs to show what a fraud and scam this guy is, but everyone also knows he is one of the most dangerous fighters in the world. In the end, I would beat Vitor Belfort up and Bisping was one of the most difficult fights of my life. So, consequently, Bisping defeats Belfort."

[JKD]

It's weird how Chael loves Bisping. I thought at the time it was because he didn't want Mike mouthing off about his TRT and fraud cases and stuff in retaliation, but he actually seems to have carried it through.

[Sacrelicious]

I'm not a big fan of this card for betting purposes. I have SMALL bets on Vitor, Gonzaga Sarafian and Tavares, all less then half a unit, closer to a quarter unit actually.

I will not be putting any more money on this card unless Barbosa opens with a decent line, at which point I will place a more standard sized bet on him.

I'm waiting for the Fox card, I think the plays there will be easier.

[BIGDAY]

I never like wagering Bisping. But I took some at +105 and might hit it again. He wins this fight.

[Vaughany]

hmmm Belfort the dog now Sportbet and pinnacle....Sonnen's talking must of lead to some action on Michael!!!

[Beelzebubzy]

Not Belfort by decision is the 95% lock

i put 8 peanut butter sandwhiches on it to win 1 Big Mac

[Sacrelicious]

Not Belfort by decision is the 95% lock

i put 8 peanut butter sandwhiches on it to win 1 Big Mac

Square bet, peanut butter rules.

Your bookie is penetrating you hard bro.

[Grabaka]

+170

-220

Of course, in penefockintrating sportbook.

[pouyasophy]

Bisping vs Vitor is one of those classic...

one of those classic fights where one fighter has no power and wants to jab his way to a decision vs the guy who wants to get inside and knock the guy's head off....I feel like I should be leaning toward Vitor but Bisping is pretty underrated....I'm torn...


can someone convince me to make a play on this?

Also, what about Rothwell vs Gonzaga? Gonzaga's more talented and explosive but Rothwell is tough and can actually take a punch....I'm leaning Rothwell because if Gonzaga gets hit it's over....


thoughts????

[Sacrelicious]

I'll say here what I said in the thread.

I'm not making any plays of and substantial size on any of the fights on this card, too many of them feel like toss ups to me.

I am small on Vitor, Gonzaga, Sarafian and Tavares, all for about a quarter unit, together equaling perhaps half the amount I would put on any bet I was actually confident in.

The only play I will make on this card of a reasonable size is Barboza, depending on what the line opens at.

Otherwise, I am staying away, mostly just making small bets for shits and giggles, I can not in good conscience advise any large plays on this card.

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

Pushing his homie Nick the Tooth big time! Dude has a great life living off of Uncle Dana!

[pavellu]

i put 8 peanut butter sandwhiches on it to win 1 Big Mac

You'll be a millionaire. We'll see, nothing is 100% sure

[Fenster]

Easy money on this card. Find it funny that people say there are no good plays. IMO it's the easiest card to pick since the Nottingham card.

[Fenster]

Vaughany, I will give you $25,000 in exchange for 50% equity in your bankroll.