2012 Picks
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No coincidencesSBR Aristocracy
- 01-18-10
- 76300
#456Comment -
pacoSBR Aristocracy
- 05-07-09
- 62873
#457I actually do lolComment -
BigDofBASBR Posting Legend
- 09-30-09
- 19313
#458Call me crazy but I like Bedard and the Pirates against my Cardinals tomorrow....
Not that I'll bet it. Just saying.Comment -
No coincidencesSBR Aristocracy
- 01-18-10
- 76300
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BigDofBASBR Posting Legend
- 09-30-09
- 19313
#461Comment -
No coincidencesSBR Aristocracy
- 01-18-10
- 76300
#462
Let's hope Miami closes this game out. Should be at least 5-0 by now.Comment -
No coincidencesSBR Aristocracy
- 01-18-10
- 76300
#463Heath Bell is the equivalent of a home run hitter who signed a huge deal after playing in a pitcher-friendly park and then fell flat on his face when he went to a new team with legitimate ballpark dimensions.Comment -
pacoSBR Aristocracy
- 05-07-09
- 62873
#464Think Braves Tt Over anything is worth a play tomorrow regardless if chips or McCann is in...Comment -
No coincidencesSBR Aristocracy
- 01-18-10
- 76300
#465This Marlins team is fvcking brutal to watch.
They do everything wrong.Comment -
BigDofBASBR Posting Legend
- 09-30-09
- 19313
#466Bell better not blow this!Comment -
No coincidencesSBR Aristocracy
- 01-18-10
- 76300
#470Thankfully that Miami game is done.
10-5, +7.28U today
101-95, +5.53U seasonComment -
bmansell33SBR MVP
- 09-28-11
- 1048
#471Good day nocoin keep it upComment -
No coincidencesSBR Aristocracy
- 01-18-10
- 76300
#474I'm not interested in the Braves anymore. Might fade the Angels, too, off of last night's no-hitter.
Cubs are a little intriguing. Miami, Arizona, Pittsburgh and KC will probably all be plays.Comment -
EXhoosier10SBR MVP
- 07-06-09
- 3122
#476Agree with a lot of your plays, again, Coin. Miami (Sandoval doubtful), Arizona (on an offensive tear), Cubs, with a potential play on KC too. Also made a play on Seattle with Upton doubtful and Longo out.
Question -- You're over talking to LTA about his models and such, but haven't heard you mention anything about how you pick games; only why LAD was a poor play. Do you have your own concrete model that spits out a line, or do you do all the work in your head and go by what feels right? I tend to have a lot of similar picks as you and I'm getting numbers spit out to me, so I'm curious as to your "process".Comment -
No coincidencesSBR Aristocracy
- 01-18-10
- 76300
#477Agree with a lot of your plays, again, Coin. Miami (Sandoval doubtful), Arizona (on an offensive tear), Cubs, with a potential play on KC too. Also made a play on Seattle with Upton doubtful and Longo out.
Question -- You're over talking to LTA about his models and such, but haven't heard you mention anything about how you pick games; only why LAD was a poor play. Do you have your own concrete model that spits out a line, or do you do all the work in your head and go by what feels right? I tend to have a lot of similar picks as you and I'm getting numbers spit out to me, so I'm curious as to your "process".Comment -
EXhoosier10SBR MVP
- 07-06-09
- 3122
#478I have a system, yes, but it's not based as much in the advanced stats like LTA's (though I'm sure it would definitely benefit to dig deeper). You can't argue with his results -- that much is a given. I'm just not as committed to crunching numbers and sticking to what a computer or the model tells me. We're all trying to win more than we lose, and if that means avoiding plays based on sheer gut feel despite what makes sense on paper, sometimes the best play is no play.Comment -
No coincidencesSBR Aristocracy
- 01-18-10
- 76300
#479I'm curious to see what LTA's response is when you posed this thought, because I use my model more as a guideline for plays I should be looking at, and then I dig a little deeper. I'm starting to think my model has a few holes here and there and I have no problem laying off plays in certain situations, I think that is a huge part in modeling as it's tough to build something that holds its ground for many different situations (Park, offense, weather, etc.)
I'm just saying I don't have all the answers, and neither do my methods.Comment -
No coincidencesSBR Aristocracy
- 01-18-10
- 76300
#480The other difference between myself and some other posters is that I respect the lines oddsmakers put out. They are professionals and they know what they're doing. Does that mean they're always right? Of course not. But they know a hell of a lot more about a given game than I do.
A lot of cappers look at a number as "off" or providing some hidden value. That may be the case, but I think the lines are where they are for a reason much more often than not. In other words, if I see a team -150 or -4 when I feel they should be less, my immediate response isn't to hammer the bet based on my opinion or what I have it capped at, but instead, I wonder if or why that number is what it is for a reason I'm not seeing.Comment -
No coincidencesSBR Aristocracy
- 01-18-10
- 76300
#481CHC +133 (1U to win 1.33)
This rarely ends well.Comment -
No coincidencesSBR Aristocracy
- 01-18-10
- 76300
#482PIT +144 (.5U to win .72)
SEA +156 (.5U to win .78)
Hoping for a split.Comment -
No coincidencesSBR Aristocracy
- 01-18-10
- 76300
#483MIA -116 (1.16U to win 1)
I actually would've taken this for 2U had I locked in a better number earlier.
Cubs were the Cubs. Believe it or not, I locked the Cincinnati ML in at +1500 in the 7th when it was 3-0. Made 7.5U off .5U. Won't count in my record here, but I'll definitely take it.Comment -
SOUPSBR MVP
- 11-02-09
- 1325
#484MIA -116 (1.16U to win 1)
I actually would've taken this for 2U had I locked in a better number earlier.
Cubs were the Cubs. Believe it or not, I locked the Cincinnati ML in at +1500 in the 7th when it was 3-0. Made 7.5U off .5U. Won't count in my record here, but I'll definitely take it.Comment -
No coincidencesSBR Aristocracy
- 01-18-10
- 76300
#485Item #:1Wager Type:Money LineOutcome:WinSport / Period:Live Betting MLB / Game Line:Live Betting - MLB - Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds - Cincinnati Reds 5/3/2012 12:35:01 PM- (EST)
+1500 * Game Notes:The prices spreads and totals reflect the current score of the game.
Yeah, I sort of do SOUP. I actually liked the Angels before Weaver's no-no. Now I'm leaning Toronto. Just hard to trust Morrow; he's so Jeckyll and Hyde. I've never been a huge Haren fan. Two awful bullpens.Comment -
EXhoosier10SBR MVP
- 07-06-09
- 3122
#486That's awesome, Coin. Glad you were able to make a nice little cash. Mind me asking what book you got those odds? I may start hedging teams with bad 'pens if books are offering +1500 for a team facing the worst closer in the league..Comment -
No coincidencesSBR Aristocracy
- 01-18-10
- 76300
#487
BetOnline for this one. I use BOL, SIA, 5Dimes and occasionally Bodog.Comment -
No coincidencesSBR Aristocracy
- 01-18-10
- 76300
#488Marlins strand the bases loaded in the 1st. Surprise, surprise.Comment -
No coincidencesSBR Aristocracy
- 01-18-10
- 76300
#490KC +128 (1U to win 1.28)
ARI -109 (1.09U to win 1)
Like Cleveland and Toronto, but I'll probably pass.Comment
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