Mlb 2012

Madison · 06-12-12, 06:11 PM

FWIW ... roof open in Mia for only a limited time this year (5 games?). Supposedly favors under?

BiffTFinancial · 06-12-12, 06:17 PM

adding

2* Twins -1 (+133)

Tuesday 6.12.2012 updated card
2* Pirates ML (+137)
2* Yankeees RL (+110)
2* Red Sox/Marlins over 8 (-105)
2* Tribe/Reds over 9 (+110)
2* Twins -1 (+133)
2* White Sox TT over 3' (-105)

BOL to all tonight.

No coincidences · 06-12-12, 06:18 PM

Like the Twins as well Biff.

BOL.

BiffTFinancial · 06-12-12, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by Madison

FWIW ... roof open in Mia for only a limited time this year (5 games?). Supposedly favors under?

actually, that should favor over, knock on wood. however, there may be a wind from LF that will minimize the impact.

Madison · 06-12-12, 06:21 PM

Pick your seat in Mia. Buchholz gives up triple to Reyes but stuff looks electric. He could be turning the corner. (Curse alert).

BiffTFinancial · 06-12-12, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Like the Twins as well Biff.

BOL.

thanks, NC. BOL to you tonight, pal.

CHAZ · 06-12-12, 06:30 PM

Keep up the great work, bud! Keep on making that $$$

BiffTFinancial · 06-13-12, 06:06 AM

Tuesday 6.12.2012 final card
2* Pirates ML (+137) - LOSER
2* Yankeees RL (+110) - WINNER
2* Red Sox/Marlins over 8 (-105) - LOSER
2* Tribe/Reds over 9 (+110) - LOSER
2* Twins -1 (+133) - WINNER
2* White Sox TT over 3' (-105) - WINNER

3-3 +0.76u

175-150-8 +46.81u season to date

pacocn · 06-13-12, 08:08 AM

Biff, off the chart numbers, keep it going

BiffTFinancial · 06-13-12, 05:44 PM

Wednesday 6.13.2012
2* Red Sox ML (-105)

BiffTFinancial · 06-13-12, 05:58 PM

adding

2* Tribe/Reds over 9 (+112)

Wednesday 6.13.2012 updated card
2* Red Sox ML (-105)
2* Tribe/Reds over 9 (+112)

BiffTFinancial · 06-13-12, 06:07 PM

adding

1* Mets ML (+142)

Wednesday 6.13.2012 updated card
2* Red Sox ML (-105)
2* Tribe/Reds over 9 (+112)
1* Mets ML (+142)

BOL to all tonight.

BiffTFinancial · 06-13-12, 06:59 PM

adding

2* A's ML (-105)
1* A's team total over 5 (-120)

Wednesday 6.13.2012 updated card
2* Red Sox ML (-105)
2* Tribe/Reds over 9 (+112)
2* A's ML (-105)
1* Mets ML (+142)
1* A's TT over 5 (-120)

BiffTFinancial · 06-13-12, 10:17 PM

Thursday 6.14.2012
2* Mets/Rays under 7' (-115)
1* Twins ML (-123)
1* Twins RL (+158)

pacocn · 06-13-12, 10:54 PM

Biff, good day today

Nice looking card for tomorrow.

BiffTFinancial · 06-14-12, 05:36 AM

Wednesday 6.13.2012 final card
2* Red Sox ML (-105) - WINNER
2* Tribe/Reds over 9 (+112) - LOSER
2* A's ML (-105) - WINNER
1* Mets ML (+142) - WINNER
1* A's TT over 5 (-120) - WINNER

4-1 +4.42u

179-151-8 +51.23u season to date

BiffTFinancial · 06-14-12, 05:37 AM

Originally posted by pacocn

Biff, good day today

Nice looking card for tomorrow.

thanks, pacocn. nice 2-0 day with 2 easy winners for you yesterday.

BiffTFinancial · 06-14-12, 05:43 AM

adding

2* A's/Rockies over 10' (-106)

Thursday 6.14.2012
2* Mets/Rays under 7' (-115)
2* A's/Rockies over 10' (-106)
1* Twins ML (-123)
1* Twins RL (+158)

traveling/in meetings all day so probably won't be on SBR until tonight. BOL to all today.

BiffTFinancial · 06-14-12, 07:39 PM

2* Mets/Rays under 7' (-115) - LOSER
2* A's/Rockies over 10' (-106) - LOSER

just looked back, now 1-6 on totals on this most recent stretch of interleague games. gonna stick to sides and TTs. totals are understandably tougher in IL games. lesson learned.

BiffTFinancial · 06-15-12, 05:53 AM

Thursday 6.14.2012 final card
2* Mets/Rays under 7' (-115) - LOSER
2* A's/Rockies over 10' (-106) - LOSER
1* Twins ML (-123) - LOSER
1* Twins RL (+158) - LOSER

0-4 -6.65u

Golden Sombrero. Bah.

Taking weekend off due to family stuff. May have a spot play or two but not likely.

Season to Date: 179-155-8 +44.58u.

figue · 06-16-12, 12:05 PM

BiffTFinancial · 06-16-12, 04:24 PM

Saturday 6.16.2012

2* Orioles team total over 3 (-120)

spot play. BOL to all tonight.

BiffTFinancial · 06-16-12, 08:02 PM

cash 2* Orioles team total over 3 (-120) in the 7th inning. enjoyed watching this one with my dad. BOL rest of the way this weekend fellas.

pacocn · 06-16-12, 08:26 PM

Biff, thanks for the winner, nice call, too busy to cap

Madison · 06-17-12, 08:20 AM

Morning Biff.

I think I'm going to start a "Madison's sucker play of the day"

The Cards stuck out "over" to me the other day. 8 runs in 5 innings from the starters and 0 after to blow 8.5 over.

Then yesterday Santana. Look at his last 3 starts. Couldn't get out of the 5th inning. Avg like 5 innings 7 runs and he throws a 1 hitter. Neon lights screaming at me to take Arz +137. The only thing that saved me was that only went 1 unit because it just smelled to me. Or maybe I should subscribe to No Coins contrarian thread.

Rant off. GL today.

Madison · 06-17-12, 03:19 PM

Now I woke up Alex Cobb ... UFB. Good thing we share discipline. I seriously should start posting these. Put a match to 2 good pitching performances to lightning in a bottle.

BiffTFinancial · 06-18-12, 07:56 AM

Back from break, really enjoyed weekend off from the grind. Will update weekly/season to date record tonight (numbers at home).

BiffTFinancial · 06-18-12, 07:57 AM

Monday 6.18.2012
2* Diamondbacks -1 (-116)
2* Rangers RL (-102)

BiffTFinancial · 06-18-12, 08:10 AM

Originally posted by Madison

Morning Biff.

I think I'm going to start a "Madison's sucker play of the day"

The Cards stuck out "over" to me the other day. 8 runs in 5 innings from the starters and 0 after to blow 8.5 over.

Then yesterday Santana. Look at his last 3 starts. Couldn't get out of the 5th inning. Avg like 5 innings 7 runs and he throws a 1 hitter. Neon lights screaming at me to take Arz +137. The only thing that saved me was that only went 1 unit because it just smelled to me. Or maybe I should subscribe to No Coins contrarian thread.

Rant off. GL today.

ouch, i just saw these this morning. that was pretty sucky. i definitely think that there's something to the contrarian angle, particularly in bases, but i always struggle to determine when the numbers are pointing out value to me as opposed to when the numbers are so far from the posted line that i should realize it's fishy and depart from the numbers. i've been simply avoiding playing those "fishy" situations, you are correct that No Coin seems to have a decent handle on when to play them.

Originally posted by Madison

Now I woke up Alex Cobb ... UFB. Good thing we share discipline. I seriously should start posting these. Put a match to 2 good pitching performances to lightning in a bottle.

man, that sucks that you were opposite Santana and then Cobb on consecutive days. each one was arguably the most surprising pitching performance of the day (at least in the positive sense of the word). of course, that kind of luck can't last, and fortunately in bases, there's always tomorrow. let's get back at em today. i've capped the 7 pm games and late games, will look at the 8 pm games later. also like Reds and O's in early games. trying to get up the courage to fade Dickey and/or the pessimism to start fading the Tribe (0-2 this season when fading them, but their June swoon is officially here). BOL today, Madison.

Madison · 06-18-12, 08:50 AM

Morning,

You are definitely correct on the value vs "fishy" dilemma.

Funny about Dickey. My last 3 bets have been "wake up the dead" kinda ugly. Over coffee I was thinking "Can I stop Dickey?".

GL today. Pretty busy morning for me so I won't be really looking closely until later.

balls2wall · 06-18-12, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

Back from break, really enjoyed weekend off from the grind. Will update weekly/season to date record tonight (numbers at home).

I had two early plays on Saturday and didn't look into anything after the noon games. Didn't even look into anything yesterday. Stayed away from horse racing all weekend.

It was a nice change of pace!!

BiffTFinancial · 06-18-12, 10:37 AM

adding

2* Reds ML (-112)

FYI, i'm 0-2 fading the Tribe this season. also, please do not take this pick as any indication of respect for Dusty Baker.

couldn't quite summon up the stones to fade Dickey, and now the number is around +151, making it easy to justify passing.

Monday 6.18.2012 update card
2* Reds ML (-112)
2* Diamondbacks -1 (-116)
2* Rangers RL (-102)

BOL to all tonight.

BiffTFinancial · 06-18-12, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by Madison

Morning,

You are definitely correct on the value vs "fishy" dilemma.

Funny about Dickey. My last 3 bets have been "wake up the dead" kinda ugly. Over coffee I was thinking "Can I stop Dickey?".

GL today. Pretty busy morning for me so I won't be really looking closely until later.

the fishy vs value dilemma is THE conundrum of handicapping, i say.

BiffTFinancial · 06-18-12, 10:41 AM

Originally posted by balls2wall

I had two early plays on Saturday and didn't look into anything after the noon games. Didn't even look into anything yesterday. Stayed away from horse racing all weekend.

It was a nice change of pace!!

i took 3 days completely off last week (inspired in part by advice of italianbandit, in part by family in town for Fathers Day), and man was it refreshing. the one day that i did cap a little was for the Saturday play, but that was maybe a half-hour after spotting an angle in updating my model's stats in preparation for Monday. a very nice change of pace, i agree. BOL to you today.

Madison · 06-18-12, 05:57 PM

Dickey last 3 ... 25.1 inn, ZERO era, 5.0 ahwg

Arietta last 3 ... 15.2 , 8.0 and 14.4 .... even worse the 4 before last.

Mets down to -157.