Baseball Crusher Fade 2012

[Spungalo]

Tgunn11 is kind enough to post Crusher picks every day in the main service plays forum. Crusher had a good year last year if you like the chase system. At times last year I faded the Baseball Crusher system because he often seemed to take high juice. For instance, taking the Marlins today. So, here will be a test of the BC Fade, by straight plays and by a chase (4-game and full mode all-out chase-til-you-drop). It appears BC uses opening lines, or something similar, so I will try to do the same using SBRodds. Anyway, here we go, for those who like tracking, or fades, or numbers, or whatever. Tgunn11 is a fantastic SBR contributor so show him some love if you can.
Thanks!
Spungalo

From tgunn11:

Baseball Crusher 2011
System Record: 122-3
Overall Record: 122-76-4
2011 Regular Season System Record: 108-3 (108-67-1) +44.17 units
2011 Playoffs: 14-0 (14-9-3) +14.0 units
2011 Overall Profit/Loss: +58.17 units

[Spungalo]

4/4/12 picks

Crusher fade:
St Louis +160

(Bet 1 to win 1.60)

BC Fade System Record: 0-0, +0 units
BC Fade overall record: 0-0, +0 units

Chase-til-you-drop record: 0-0, +0 units

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

4/5/12 pick

Crusher fade:
Boston +127

(Bet 1 to win 1.27)

BC Fade System Record: 1-0, +1.60 units (won last game)
BC Fade overall record: 1-0, +1.60 units (won last game)

Chase-til-you-drop record: 1-0, +1.60 units (won last game)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[figue]

[HoulihansTX]

Yea he is a chalk eater for sure. I do not kno why, but guys like that are annoying.

[Spungalo]

4/6/12 pick

Crusher fade (B bet):
Seattle +129

(Bet 1.55 to win 2) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 1-0, +1.60 units (lost last game)

(Bet 1 to win 1.29) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 1-1, +0.60 units

(Bet 1.55 to win 2)
Chase-til-you-drop: 1-1, +0.60 units (lost last game)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

4/7/12 pick

Crusher fade (A bet):
NY Yankees +119

(Bet 1 to win 1.19) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 2-0, +3.60 units (won last game)

(Bet 1 to win 1.19) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 2-1, +1.89 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.19)
Chase-til-you-drop: 2-1, +2.60 units (won last game)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

4/8/12 pick

Crusher fade (B bet):
Kansas City +155

(Bet 2 to win 3.10) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 2-0, +3.60 units (lost last game)

(Bet 1 to win 1.55) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 2-2, +0.89 units

(Bet 2 to win 3.10)
Chase-til-you-drop: 2-2, +1.60 units (lost last game)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

4/9/12 pick

Crusher fade (A bet):
Milwaukee -130

(Bet 1.30 to win 1) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 3-0, +6.70 units (won last game)

(Bet 1.30 to win 1) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 3-2, +2.44 units

(Bet 1.30 to win 1)
Chase-til-you-drop: 3-2, +4.70 units (won last game)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

4/10/12 pick

Crusher fade (A bet):
Kansas City +103

(Bet 1 to win 1.03) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 4-0, +7.70 units (won last game)

(Bet 1 to win 1.03) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 4-2, +3.44 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.03)
Chase-til-you-drop: 4-2, +5.70 units (won last game)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

4/11/12 pick

Crusher fade (A bet):
Tampa Bay +160

(Bet 1 to win 1.60) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 5-0, +8.73 units (won last game)

(Bet 1 to win 1.60) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 5-2, +4.47 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.60)
Chase-til-you-drop: 5-2, +6.73 units (won last game)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

4/12/12 pick

Crusher fade (A bet):
Pittsburgh +135

(Bet 1 to win 1.35) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 6-0, +10.33 units (won last game)

(Bet 1 to win 1.35) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 6-2, +6.07 units (won last game)

(Bet 1 to win 1.35)
Chase-til-you-drop: 6-2, +8.33 units (won last game)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[aznknightt]

Looks like a great idea , do you know how the fade did last year, asking because i remember him going on 7+ games winning streak. Thanks for the hard work.

[Spungalo]

4/13/12 pick

Crusher fade (B bet):
Cleveland +115

(Bet 1.87 to win 2.15) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 6-0, +9.33 units (lost last game)

(Bet 1 to win 1.15) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 6-3, +5.07 units (lost last game)

(Bet 1.87 to win 2.15)
Chase-til-you-drop: 6-3, +7.33 units (lost last game)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

4/14/12 pick

Crusher fade (A bet):
Colorado/Arizona Over*9.5 +100

(Bet 1 to win 1) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 7-0, +11.48 units (won last game)

(Bet 1 to win 1) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 7-3, +6.22 units (won last game)

(Bet 1 to win 1)
Chase-til-you-drop: 7-3, +9.48 units (won last game)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

4/15/12 pick

Crusher fade (A bet):
New York Mets +145 (the line is much higher now)

(Bet 1 to win 1.45) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 8-0, +12.48 units (won last game)

(Bet 1 to win 1.45) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 8-3, +7.22 units (won last game)

(Bet 1 to win 1.45)
Chase-til-you-drop: 8-3, +10.48 units (won last game)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

4/16/12 pick

Crusher fade (B bet):
New York Mets +140

(Bet 1.72 to win 2.40) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 8-0, +11.48 units (lost last game)

(Bet 1 to win 1.40) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 8-4, +6.22 units (won last game)

(Bet 1.72 to win 2.40)
Chase-til-you-drop: 8-4, +9.48 units (won last game)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

4/17/12 pick

Crusher fade (A bet):
Houston +150

(Bet 1 to win 1.50) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 9-0, +13.88 units (won last game)

(Bet 1 to win 1.50) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 9-4, +7.62 units (won last game)

(Bet 1 to win 1.50)
Chase-til-you-drop: 9-4, +11.88 units (won last game)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

4/18/12 pick

Crusher fade (B bet):
Baltimore +130

(Bet 2 to win 2.30) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 9-0, +12.88 units (lost last game)

(Bet 1 to win 1.30) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 9-5, +6.62 units (lost last game)

(Bet 2 to win 2.30)
Chase-til-you-drop: 9-5, +10.88 units (lost last game)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[jonohull]

Thanks for doing this. I took Houston +1.5 last night after seeing this so it hit for me.

[Spungalo]

4/19/12 picks

Crusher fade (C bet):
Cleveland +135

(Bet 2.48 to win 3.35) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
(trying to win 2 + risk 1=> risk 1.48 to win 2 + risk 1 to win 1.35=> risk 2.48 to win 3.35)
BC Fade System Record: 9-0, +8.88 units (lost last game)

(Bet 1 to win 1.35) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 9-6, +5.62 units (lost last game)

(Bet 2.48 to win 3.35)
(trying to win 2 + risk 1=> risk 1.48 to win 2 + risk 1 to win 1.35=> risk 2.48 to win 3.35)
Chase-til-you-drop: 9-6, +8.88 units (lost last game)

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

Well, I noticed I made some errors in some of the B bets above when calculating what to risk and, thus, what to win. As I state "Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds)."

So, if I would have risked 1 to win 1.27 on an A bet and lost, my statement above implies that I should "win previous bet" (which was a risk of 1) plus risk 1 additional unit. On a B bet of +129, this implies I would try to win my previous bet (risk of 1) plus risk 1 additional unit--> to do so, I would have to win my previous bet (to win back my risk of 1, I need to risk 0.78 on this B bet) plus risk 1 additional unit (risk 1 to win 1.20), meaning the B bet is to risk 1.78 to win 2.20.

However, what I was doing was (you can see this in the 4/6/12 pick where these hypothetical numbers come from) simply trying to win an additional unit (hence the 4/6/12 bet of risking 1.55 to win 2).

So, I re-ran the numbers and they appear in the table below. Starting with the 4/20/12 pick (the next post), the updated units are included. Sorry about the confusion, and I'm guessing no one really cares, but it mattered to me to keep an accurate record and be consistent.

			Risk			Win				Record			Units
Date	Bet	Pick	BC Fade	No Chase	All Out Chase	BC Fade	No Chase	All Out Chase	W/L	BC Fade	No Chase	All Out Chase	BC Fade	No Chase	All Out Chase
4-Apr	A	STL +160	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.60	1.60	1.60	W	1-0	1-0	1-0	1.60	1.60	1.60
5-Apr	A	BOS +127	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.27	1.27	1.27	L		1-1	1-1	0.60	0.60	0.60
6-Apr	B	SEA +129	1.78	1.00	1.78	2.29	1.29	2.29	W	2-0	2-1	2-1	2.89	1.89	2.89
7-Apr	A	NYY +119	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.19	1.19	1.19	L		2-2	2-2	1.89	0.89	1.89
8-Apr	B	KC +155	1.65	1.00	1.65	2.55	1.55	2.55	W	3-0	3-2	3-2	4.44	2.44	4.44
9-Apr	A	MIL -130	1.30	1.30	1.30	1.00	1.00	1.00	W	4-0	4-2	4-2	5.44	3.44	5.44
10-Apr	A	KC +103	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.03	1.03	1.03	W	5-0	5-2	5-2	6.47	4.47	6.47
11-Apr	A	TB +160	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.60	1.60	1.60	W	6-0	6-2	6-2	8.07	6.07	8.07
12-Apr	A	PIT +135	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.35	1.35	1.35	L		6-3	6-3	7.07	5.07	7.07
13-Apr	B	CLE +115	1.87	1.00	1.87	2.15	1.15	2.15	W	7-0	7-3	7-3	9.22	6.22	9.22
14-Apr	A	COL O*9.5 +100	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	W	8-0	8-3	8-3	10.22	7.22	10.22
15-Apr	A	NYM +145	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.45	1.45	1.45	L		8-4	8-4	9.22	6.22	9.22
16-Apr	B	NYM +140	1.71	1.00	1.71	2.40	1.40	2.40	W	9-0	9-4	9-4	11.62	7.62	11.62
17-Apr	A	HOU +150	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.50	1.50	1.50	L		9-5	9-5	10.62	6.62	10.62
18-Apr	B	BAL +130	1.77	1.00	1.77	2.30	1.30	2.30	L		9-6	9-6	8.85	5.62	8.85
19-Apr	C	CLE +135	2.31	1.00	2.31	3.12	1.35	3.12	W	10-0	10-6	10-6	11.97	6.97	11.97
20-Apr	A	COL +120

[Spungalo]

4/20/12 pick

Crusher fade (A bet):
Colorado +120

(Bet 1 to win 1.20) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 10-0, +11.97 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.20) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 10-6, +6.97 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.20)
Chase-til-you-drop: 10-6, +11.97 units

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

4/21/12 picks

Crusher fade (A bet):
Minnesota +160

(Bet 1 to win 1.60) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 11-0, +13.17 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.60) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 11-6, +8.17 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.60)
Chase-til-you-drop: 11-6, +13.17 units

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

4/22/12 pick

Crusher fade (B bet):
Colorado/Milwaukee Over 8.5 +110

(Bet 1.91 to win 2.10) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 11-0, +12.17 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.10) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 11-7, +7.17 units

(Bet 1.91 to win 2.10)
Chase-til-you-drop: 11-7, +12.17 units

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[painter10]

these system plays a bet b bet and so on seem complicated to me the play is over 8.5 ????? thanks for the work !!

[Spungalo]

these system plays a bet b bet and so on seem complicated to me the play is over 8.5 ????? thanks for the work !!

Yes, the fade play is always listed at the top, painter.

[Spungalo]

Crusher fade (C bet):
Boston/Minnesota Over 8.5 +100

(Bet 2.91 to win 2.91) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 11-0, +10.26 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.10) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 11-8, +6.17 units

(Bet 2.91 to win 2.91)
Chase-til-you-drop: 11-8, +10.26 units

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

4/24/12 pick

Crusher fade (A bet):
Miami/NY Mets Over 7 +105

(Bet 1 to win 1.05) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 12-0, +13.17 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.05) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 12-8, +7.17 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.05)
Chase-til-you-drop: 12-8, +13.17 units

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[nosaij]

Crusher fade (A bet):
Miami/NY Mets Over 7 +105

(Bet 1 to win 1.05) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 12-0, +13.17 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.05) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 12-8, +7.17 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.05)
Chase-til-you-drop: 12-8, +13.17 units

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

Hi, im just wondering if you fade that game, that means you pick UN7.5?

thanks

[imzdeals]

Really interested in this. Would you happen to know how much times the BC fade has won, and the team won by over one run? Because playing the dog at the adjusted -1.5 run line usually has very nice odds.

[Spungalo]

Hi, im just wondering if you fade that game, that means you pick UN7.5?

thanks

Nosaij, no-- I list the faded play itself at the top (Crusher fade). So Crusher's play last night was MIA/NYM Under*7; the fade play last night was the Over*7 loser.

[Spungalo]

Really interested in this. Would you happen to know how much times the BC fade has won, and the team won by over one run? Because playing the dog at the adjusted -1.5 run line usually has very nice odds.

Great idea, imzdeals. I know some people on the old LabbyFade site (now defunct I think) were tooling around that idea or something similar. If you're willing to track it you can use the data below--

[Spungalo]

4/25/12 pick

Crusher fade (B bet):
Minnesota +115

(Bet 1.87 to win 2.15) *This follows the BC 4-game chase but fades the pick.
BC Fade System Record: 12-0, +12.17 units

(Bet 1 to win 1.15) *This is a simple overall record, betting to win 1 if negative odds, to risk 1 if positive odds.
BC Fade overall record: 12-9, +6.17 units

(Bet 1.87 to win 2.15)
Chase-til-you-drop: 12-9, +12.17 units

Note: the chase will be to win previous bet and 1 additional unit (if -odds) or risk 1 additional unit (if +odds).

[Spungalo]

Really interested in this. Would you happen to know how much times the BC fade has won, and the team won by over one run? Because playing the dog at the adjusted -1.5 run line usually has very nice odds.

So you got me interested-- however, early on, I am unsure how profitable this would be. So far, the record is 7-9 for Crusher Fade Dogs on the -1.5 adjusted run line. However, if the odds are super good, this could be a profit...