on3's MLB 2012 Opening Game system thread 194-8 last year +60 units

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  • chound
    SBR High Roller
    • 05-27-10
    • 158

    #666
    Once your on the site click on the rules tab...there's actually 2 systems....a 5 run system and the under .470 system
    Comment
    • chound
      SBR High Roller
      • 05-27-10
      • 158

      #667
      Its rl if your playing the dog...ml if fav......on the 5 run you wait 2 games unless the team scores 5 or more again then wait 2 more then play against them
      Comment
      • airattackers
        SBR High Roller
        • 02-24-12
        • 130

        #668
        @chound.. what is the .470, is it win %..
        Comment
        • airattackers
          SBR High Roller
          • 02-24-12
          • 130

          #669
          @chound..thanks i found what i was looking for..
          Comment
          • show me the $
            SBR High Roller
            • 03-25-12
            • 203

            #670
            please just post the plays for tomorrow without all the calculations. gracias.
            Comment
            • The HOFF
              SBR MVP
              • 07-02-08
              • 4847

              #671
              Friday plays:

              Tampa Bay -175 is a play
              LA Angels are from -140 to -150 (most likely a play)
              Comment
              • J.M. Disciple
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 11-16-10
                • 5154

                #672
                Originally posted by The HOFF
                Friday plays:

                Tampa Bay -175 is a play
                LA Angels are from -140 to -150 (most likely a play)
                If LA is a play then the o/u is at 9 @ 5 dimes so it would count as a filtered play as well.

                Wait for On3's official posting.

                TB is for sure so get on it as always early before public pounds it as usual.
                Comment
                • J.M. Disciple
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 11-16-10
                  • 5154

                  #673
                  covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/matchups/g4_summary_13.html

                  Here is the link for TB's game. I am very surprised they are that big of a favorite the way MIN has been playing lately. Be-careful as always!

                  covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/matchups/g4_summary_24.html

                  Heres the link for LAA. I have fresh lines, so im happy its not too much on these plays.... I do not like the stats at all.

                  Good Luck

                  *remember LA is not an official play yet.
                  Comment
                  • sstrunks52005
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 07-15-11
                    • 251

                    #674
                    For anyone else looking at Cisco's system...
                    he has tampa bay +1.5. is that a mistake? maybe it should be -1.5?
                    Comment
                    • The HOFF
                      SBR MVP
                      • 07-02-08
                      • 4847

                      #675
                      Originally posted by sstrunks52005
                      For anyone else looking at Cisco's system...
                      he has tampa bay +1.5. is that a mistake? maybe it should be -1.5?
                      I think it should be Boston +1.5. The play is against the Yankees.
                      Comment
                      • on3
                        SBR MVP
                        • 08-23-10
                        • 2197

                        #676
                        System record 20-0-0; 5-0-0
                        Units +16
                        1 unit = $20

                        4/20

                        #21 -- minnesota @ TB -179 (A) -- o/u 8
                        #22 -- baltimore @ LAA -150 (A) -- o/u 9

                        Game 1 win = 12-8; 3-2
                        Game 2 win = 6-2; 2-0
                        Game 3 win = 2-0; 0-0

                        Labby Line (regular)

                        10-37-37-10
                        10-10-10-10
                        10-10-10-10

                        Labby Line (filter)

                        10-10-15-15


                        TB to win 47
                        LAA to win 47

                        LAA to win 25 (filtered)
                        Comment
                        • eric14tsui
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 10-19-10
                          • 187

                          #677
                          Thanks again On3. I looked at the system of 5 run chase, quite interesting.
                          Comment
                          • Douchebag50
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 11-12-11
                            • 37

                            #678
                            Thanks for the early amounts post
                            Comment
                            • Bradfordmiller
                              SBR Hustler
                              • 05-11-11
                              • 57

                              #679
                              Thanks for all your efforts on3.
                              Comment
                              • thelimit0310
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-24-11
                                • 1233

                                #680
                                therizz

                                I just sent you on PM! Please check it out and get back to me as soon as you can! Thanks buddy!
                                Comment
                                • JMobile
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 08-21-10
                                  • 19074

                                  #681
                                  Marking my spot here.
                                  Comment
                                  • positivebankroll
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 08-18-10
                                    • 222

                                    #682
                                    Originally posted by on3
                                    System record 20-0-0; 5-0-0
                                    Units +16
                                    1 unit = $20

                                    4/20

                                    #21 -- minnesota @ TB -179 (A) -- o/u 8
                                    #22 -- baltimore @ LAA -150 (A) -- o/u 9

                                    Game 1 win = 12-8; 3-2
                                    Game 2 win = 6-2; 2-0
                                    Game 3 win = 2-0; 0-0

                                    Labby Line (regular)

                                    10-37-37-10
                                    10-10-10-10
                                    10-10-10-10

                                    Labby Line (filter)

                                    10-10-15-15


                                    TB to win 47
                                    LAA to win 47

                                    LAA to win 25 (filtered)
                                    your record states 20-0 n 5-0 why is there 2 records?
                                    Comment
                                    • daddyv
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 10-05-10
                                      • 241

                                      #683
                                      unfiltered and filtered plays
                                      Comment
                                      • redsox3g2
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 08-21-10
                                        • 100

                                        #684
                                        Originally posted by positivebankroll
                                        your record states 20-0 n 5-0 why is there 2 records?
                                        Really? Read the thread it's been covered at least a half dozen times. The 5-0 is for the filtered plays.
                                        Comment
                                        • positivebankroll
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 08-18-10
                                          • 222

                                          #685
                                          thanks daddyv
                                          Comment
                                          • thompson182
                                            SBR Rookie
                                            • 05-25-09
                                            • 20

                                            #686
                                            I was looking at a way to lower the losses for the Martingalers out there and one thing I was curious to try was mixing the first games moneyline and runline. You can use scalpulator to fix the lines where if your team wins the first game by one run you lose basically .1 of a unit. However, for the chases that lose all 3 the loss would be drastically less. The first games won by more than 1 run would be the same either way.
                                            Comment
                                            • WVU9494
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 11-14-11
                                              • 333

                                              #687
                                              Can you give an example of an A bet using this, I don't follow. I use the martingale at $100 per unit and taking 3 or 4 loses in a month would kill this system, while its running good you are golden.
                                              Comment
                                              • darkmatter117
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 04-10-12
                                                • 104

                                                #688
                                                Originally posted by thompson182
                                                I was looking at a way to lower the losses for the Martingalers out there and one thing I was curious to try was mixing the first games moneyline and runline. You can use scalpulator to fix the lines where if your team wins the first game by one run you lose basically .1 of a unit. However, for the chases that lose all 3 the loss would be drastically less. The first games won by more than 1 run would be the same either way.
                                                My reservation with that is that there are many instances per season where the team we're chasing will win Game 1 or 2 by a run and lose the others. If you take the money line these would be series wins, but if not you end up with a series loss (a push and two losses). Based on my backtests so far, Game 3 is where I would take the run line. In the 2006 and 2007 seasons, playing the R/L on C bets would only add three losses (one in 2006, two in 2007). Considering that you can often get these at +money, it's a great tradeoff. At some books you can also take the -1 R/L, which would mean three more pushes in those two seasons but no additional series losses.
                                                Comment
                                                • soul786
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 03-09-12
                                                  • 1697

                                                  #689
                                                  Count another win on the filtered play. LAA win
                                                  Comment
                                                  • J.M. Disciple
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 11-16-10
                                                    • 5154

                                                    #690
                                                    TB only play tomorrow -B level correct?

                                                    There appears to be a lot of big mismatches tomorrow and want to play a lot of my own bets, but patience is virtue. Going to stay discipline and stick with the system so labby lines dont get too heavy.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • sstrunks52005
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 07-15-11
                                                      • 251

                                                      #691
                                                      Originally posted by soul786
                                                      Count another win on the filtered play. LAA win
                                                      had like 5 units on angels with unfiltered/filtered and cisco's play lol

                                                      5 plays for cisco tomorrow...looks like two are wrong (boston and seattle) but not sure.

                                                      lets go rayyyys
                                                      Comment
                                                      • on3
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 08-23-10
                                                        • 2197

                                                        #692
                                                        System record 21-0-0; 6-0-0
                                                        Units +15.5
                                                        1 unit = $20

                                                        4/21

                                                        #21 -- minnesota @ TB -193 (B)

                                                        Game 1 win = 13-9; 4-2
                                                        Game 2 win = 6-2; 2-0
                                                        Game 3 win = 2-0; 0-0

                                                        Labby Line (regular)

                                                        10-37-x-42
                                                        10-10-10-52
                                                        10-10-10-10

                                                        Labby Line (filter)

                                                        x-10-15-x


                                                        TB to win 62
                                                        Comment
                                                        • domi
                                                          SBR Hustler
                                                          • 02-29-12
                                                          • 77

                                                          #693
                                                          Thanks on3 good system
                                                          Comment
                                                          • WVU9494
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 11-14-11
                                                            • 333

                                                            #694
                                                            Who is cisco
                                                            Comment
                                                            • darkmatter117
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 04-10-12
                                                              • 104

                                                              #695
                                                              Originally posted by WVU9494
                                                              Who is cisco
                                                              Refer to post 658.

                                                              You could also look at this, although it's old: http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/1121015-3-sucessful-systems-cisco.html
                                                              Comment
                                                              • WVU9494
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 11-14-11
                                                                • 333

                                                                #696
                                                                So you are saying in 2 years of data taking the run line on a C game only resulted in 3 more loses?

                                                                If you are doing a $100 martinggale, this would save you about $600 per loss. And about $6000 per season assuming 10 losses. If you add 2 losses in a a season using a run line on game c instead of the ml that is approx $1200 per loss or $2400. Per the data you compiled its a no brainier to go this way and I think a significant change to the way the system should be played. If you have data from other seasons on this it would help too.

                                                                What is a -1 r/l?

                                                                Originally posted by darkmatter117
                                                                My reservation with that is that there are many instances per season where the team we're chasing will win Game 1 or 2 by a run and lose the others. If you take the money line these would be series wins, but if not you end up with a series loss (a push and two losses). Based on my backtests so far, Game 3 is where I would take the run line. In the 2006 and 2007 seasons, playing the R/L on C bets would only add three losses (one in 2006, two in 2007). Considering that you can often get these at +money, it's a great tradeoff. At some books you can also take the -1 R/L, which would mean three more pushes in those two seasons but no additional series losses.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • WVU9494
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 11-14-11
                                                                  • 333

                                                                  #697
                                                                  I am going to use this for C games from this point forward. I am hoping for a 200-10 season (140-8 nonfiltered, and 60-2 filtered). Using a $100 martinggale on unfiltered and $300 on filtered. This would be a nice $18k profit. Let's do this!!!!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Gndias
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 11-23-11
                                                                    • 1607

                                                                    #698
                                                                    looks good...hope it works, i am doing the same thing but with smaller figures
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • petters72
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 05-16-09
                                                                      • 188

                                                                      #699
                                                                      ......
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • darkmatter117
                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                        • 04-10-12
                                                                        • 104

                                                                        #700
                                                                        Originally posted by WVU9494
                                                                        So you are saying in 2 years of data taking the run line on a C game only resulted in 3 more loses? [...]

                                                                        What is a -1 r/l?
                                                                        Yep, that's exactly what I'm saying. I haven't checked for any of the other seasons but plan to. To answer your other question, 5dimes -- and I'm sure some other books -- offers -1 run lines. For instance, at 5dimes you could get TB on the ML tonight at -190, or on the -1 R/L at -140. Based on my research, it's not worth doing until Game 3, though. Another perk with 5dimes is that it offers reduced lines, so while the -1.5 R/L for TB is +110 at Sportsbook and BetOnline, it's available +115 at 5dimes.

                                                                        I can't remember where I saw it, but if your book doesn't offer a -1 R/L and you don't want to use 5dimes, there is also a way to bet the ML and -1.5 R/L in such a way that it amounts to a -1. Maybe someone else can explain this, but I think it's as simple as betting "to win" the desired amount on the ML, and then betting "to risk" that same amount on the R/L. So if the team wins by a run it amounts to a push (win X on ML, lose X on -1.5 R/L). I hope that helps.
                                                                        Last edited by darkmatter117; 04-21-12, 04:48 PM.
                                                                        Comment
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