Whats the best plays for EARLY THURSDAY???

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  • ZBOIZ
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 06-22-08
    • 21464

    #1
    Whats the best plays for EARLY THURSDAY???
    Lets talk this money guys!!!
  • pat venditto
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 05-07-07
    • 14347

    #2
    Cardinals are my only play tommorow pal.
    Comment
    • jtuck
      SBR MVP
      • 02-18-08
      • 2051

      #3
      Eat the chalk on the stros
      Comment
      • ZBOIZ
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 06-22-08
        • 21464

        #4
        Originally posted by jtuck
        Eat the chalk on the stros
        I jus checked the astros out and i like them
        Comment
        • BadBeatBodog
          SBR MVP
          • 06-05-08
          • 1006

          #5
          Arizona
          "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

          "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
          Comment
          • ZBOIZ
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 06-22-08
            • 21464

            #6
            Originally posted by BadBeatBodog
            Arizona
            I really dont like bettin against teams that can put 20 runs up in a inning! I'll past on the Colorado game!
            Comment
            • BadBeatBodog
              SBR MVP
              • 06-05-08
              • 1006

              #7
              Colorado is very overrated offensively and really struggles versus righties. Haren has been a top five SP in MLB this year. Your statement has zero validity. I'd like to see a real argument against taking Arizona. I mean their team OPS is .684 on the road that is HORRIBLE. Arizona enjoys the same offensive advantage Colorado does when playing in Coors, if not more; the DBacks are a fly ball hitting team and that plus Coors Field equals value.
              "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

              "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
              Comment
              • ZBOIZ
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 06-22-08
                • 21464

                #8
                Originally posted by BadBeatBodog
                Colorado is very overrated offensively and really struggles versus righties. Haren has been a top five SP in MLB this year. Your statement has zero validity. I'd like to see a real argument against taking Arizona. I mean their team OPS is .684 on the road that is HORRIBLE. Arizona enjoys the same offensive advantage Colorado does when playing in Coors, if not more; the DBacks are a fly ball hitting team and that plus Coors Field equals value.

                Im just stating my opinion that have me making over 1000 weekly! I just goes with what works for me! And Arizona is not the team I'll bet on!
                Comment
                • BadBeatBodog
                  SBR MVP
                  • 06-05-08
                  • 1006

                  #9
                  ZBOIZ I have yet to see solid reasoning from you on any plays. For you to brag about making thousands a week on here is hilarious to me. Do you not realize how empty of a statement "I really dont like bettin against teams that can put 20 runs up in a inning!" is? You are talking about EVERY major league team there.
                  "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

                  "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
                  Comment
                  • ryanXL977
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 02-24-08
                    • 20615

                    #10
                    the problem with haren is he seems to slow down or tire in the august sept months
                    last year and now
                    numbers back it up

                    still i like az tmrw anyhow, better pen, better team
                    by a lot
                    Comment
                    • ZBOIZ
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 06-22-08
                      • 21464

                      #11
                      Originally posted by BadBeatBodog
                      ZBOIZ I have yet to see solid reasoning from you on any plays. For you to brag about making thousands a week on here is hilarious to me. Do you not realize how empty of a statement "I really dont like bettin against teams that can put 20 runs up in a inning!" is? You are talking about EVERY major league team there.
                      man y do i have to convince you?????

                      and I'm not bragging I'm stating facts!
                      Comment
                      • onlooker
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 08-10-05
                        • 36572

                        #12
                        I would say the Astros and Diamondbacks.
                        Comment
                        • ZBOIZ
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 06-22-08
                          • 21464

                          #13
                          i like the astros!
                          Comment
                          • BadBeatBodog
                            SBR MVP
                            • 06-05-08
                            • 1006

                            #14
                            Originally posted by ryanXL977
                            the problem with haren is he seems to slow down or tire in the august sept months
                            last year and now
                            numbers back it up

                            still i like az tmrw anyhow, better pen, better team
                            by a lot
                            2005
                            Total ERA: 3.73
                            August ERA: 2.76

                            2006
                            Total ERA: 4.12
                            August ERA: 4.13

                            2007
                            Total ERA: 3.07
                            August ERA: 4.15

                            Last year he faded in the second half and sure, maybe he tired, but there's no way to prove that. However, I can prove that it likely had to do with regression. His 2007 first half BAbip was an extremely low .234, and not surprisingly it was an extremely high .357 in the second half. His August BAbip last year was .329.

                            Yes he has struggled in two starts in August this year, but his BAbip is .457. That is out-of-this-world high. He has been getting very, very unlucky.
                            "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

                            "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
                            Comment
                            • BadBeatBodog
                              SBR MVP
                              • 06-05-08
                              • 1006

                              #15
                              Originally posted by ZBOIZ
                              man y do i have to convince you?????

                              and I'm not bragging I'm stating facts!
                              You don't have to convince anyone, but either post a real argument or post nothing. You are offering nothing with these hollow one-liners.

                              "I really dont like bettin against teams that can put 20 runs up in a inning!"

                              "This game could easily go over!" in regards to Carolina@SD

                              This forum is for intellectual discussion about betting so you offer nothing when you say stuff like that.
                              "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

                              "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
                              Comment
                              • ryanXL977
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 02-24-08
                                • 20615

                                #16
                                i was referring to 07 and 08
                                Comment
                                • BadBeatBodog
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 06-05-08
                                  • 1006

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by ryanXL977
                                  i was referring to 07 and 08
                                  And I addressed that. One month and two games is too small of a sample size, anyway.
                                  "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

                                  "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
                                  Comment
                                  • ryanXL977
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 02-24-08
                                    • 20615

                                    #18
                                    that may be true
                                    i am doin az tmrw, but watch haren and see if he is the same pitcher
                                    statistical aberrations happen every single day in mlb
                                    Comment
                                    • ryanXL977
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 02-24-08
                                      • 20615

                                      #19
                                      why dont you post pre august era, and post august era, thats more appllicable than the numbers you show
                                      Comment
                                      • ZBOIZ
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 06-22-08
                                        • 21464

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by BadBeatBodog
                                        You don't have to convince anyone, but either post a real argument or post nothing. You are offering nothing with these hollow one-liners.

                                        "I really dont like bettin against teams that can put 20 runs up in a inning!"

                                        "This game could easily go over!" in regards to Carolina@SD

                                        This forum is for intellectual discussion about betting so you offer nothing when you say stuff like that.
                                        I guess for YOU I have to deeply state facts! OK ! FOR YOU i will do that!

                                        With the Panthers and Chargers game, the total of 42 can reach the over. The reason is because the Chargers has one of the best offenses in the league with LT(You ever heard of him?). They also has Buster Davis and Gates. The Chargers this year is on a mission to win the Super Bowl especially coming up short the last two years! Look for them to average atleast 28 points a game with the weapons Rivers will have around him. Now when you add the Panthers in the mix, they will not have Smith but they will have Muhammed who have potential to be a threat when he have a QB who is healthy! Also the Panthers run game should be improved this year with Deangelo Williams being the # 1 back, and Stewart who they drafted out of Oregon!

                                        If I had to predict the final score it would be 35 to 14!
                                        Comment
                                        • ZBOIZ
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 06-22-08
                                          • 21464

                                          #21
                                          Now with Colorado and Arizona!

                                          I'm not saying this is a bad game but I'm saying I dont like putting money against a dangerous hitting team! Everyone knows Colorado is one of them teams that can explode! Yea you can say all MLB teams can explode but common sense will tell you that other teams has a higher chance of exploding on offense than others. Colorado can be loosing by 3 runs in the 8th and put 5 up the next inning. They do it all the time!
                                          Comment
                                          • ryanXL977
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 02-24-08
                                            • 20615

                                            #22
                                            this isnt the old colorado team that averaged 6 runs a game
                                            Comment
                                            • ZBOIZ
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 06-22-08
                                              • 21464

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by ryanXL977
                                              this isnt the old colorado team that averaged 6 runs a game
                                              But my point is me and you both would'nt be suprised if they did it!
                                              Comment
                                              • BadBeatBodog
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 06-05-08
                                                • 1006

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by ZBOIZ
                                                I guess for YOU I have to deeply state facts! OK ! FOR YOU i will do that!

                                                With the Panthers and Chargers game, the total of 42 can reach the over. The reason is because the Chargers has one of the best offenses in the league with LT(You ever heard of him?). They also has Buster Davis and Gates. The Chargers this year is on a mission to win the Super Bowl especially coming up short the last two years! Look for them to average atleast 28 points a game with the weapons Rivers will have around him. Now when you add the Panthers in the mix, they will not have Smith but they will have Muhammed who have potential to be a threat when he have a QB who is healthy! Also the Panthers run game should be improved this year with Deangelo Williams being the # 1 back, and Stewart who they drafted out of Oregon!

                                                If I had to predict the final score it would be 35 to 14!
                                                I appreciate it. I like to discuss. If I put out a thoughtful argument for something, I expect people who reply to do the same. I don't want you to think that I am here to bust your balls, because you can post what you want, but I personally get annoyed when I attempt an in-depth discussion and I don't get anything good back. I respect your opinion and I have seen that you post winners.

                                                As I said in the NFL thread, Gates is coming off a pretty serious injury, along with Rivers and LT, and he may not play that week. The Bolts will also be missing their center. In addition, the offense is going through a transition in terms of how their offense operates; ever since the Chargers have had LT (of course I know who he is, I am a Chargers fan afterall) the offenses has run through him. Many two-back sets, usually with a fullback, and runs on first and second down were very predictable. Now Norv wants to air it out, and with Rivers, Gates, Chambers, Jackson, Davis, and LT, who can blame him? But offenses often struggle early on, especially when implementing a new offensive philosophy.

                                                And don't forget the Panthers should sport a tough defense. I expect their unit to rebound from last year.
                                                "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

                                                "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
                                                Comment
                                                • ryanXL977
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 02-24-08
                                                  • 20615

                                                  #25
                                                  i wouldnt be suprised if any team won any game, ever, in mlb
                                                  Comment
                                                  • BadBeatBodog
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 06-05-08
                                                    • 1006

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by ryanXL977
                                                    why dont you post pre august era, and post august era, thats more appllicable than the numbers you show
                                                    No, because this start is in August. I know his September ERA is high, like in August, but so has the BAbip. Last year he was extremely unlucky in the second half, although it could have been predicted. This year his first half BAbip was .256, a little more reasonable than last year, so the regression should not be as extreme.
                                                    "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

                                                    "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
                                                    Comment
                                                    • ryanXL977
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 02-24-08
                                                      • 20615

                                                      #27
                                                      maybe his fastball was slower, maybe his curve didnt break
                                                      what you call luck others may call fatigure
                                                      Comment
                                                      • BadBeatBodog
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 06-05-08
                                                        • 1006

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by ZBOIZ
                                                        Now with Colorado and Arizona!

                                                        I'm not saying this is a bad game but I'm saying I dont like putting money against a dangerous hitting team! Everyone knows Colorado is one of them teams that can explode! Yea you can say all MLB teams can explode but common sense will tell you that other teams has a higher chance of exploding on offense than others. Colorado can be loosing by 3 runs in the 8th and put 5 up the next inning. They do it all the time!
                                                        But the offense ISN'T that good. I don't really think they are capable of outbursts like that any more so than Arizona. Arizona and Colorado have identical road OPS's, but Arizona now has Dunn, who is the best offensive player on either team.
                                                        "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

                                                        "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
                                                        Comment
                                                        • ryanXL977
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 02-24-08
                                                          • 20615

                                                          #29
                                                          dunn is better than holliday at coors? thats not true at all, not close to ttrue id guess
                                                          Comment
                                                          • BadBeatBodog
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 06-05-08
                                                            • 1006

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by ryanXL977
                                                            maybe his fastball was slower, maybe his curve didnt break
                                                            what you call luck others may call fatigure
                                                            But Ryan I can prove and quantify his luck, or lack thereof. You cannot do the same for fatigue.
                                                            "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

                                                            "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
                                                            Comment
                                                            • BadBeatBodog
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 06-05-08
                                                              • 1006

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by ryanXL977
                                                              dunn is better than holliday at coors? thats not true at all, not close to ttrue id guess
                                                              What does at Coors have to do with it? Wouldn't they receive the same offensive boost?
                                                              "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

                                                              "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
                                                              Comment
                                                              • ryanXL977
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 02-24-08
                                                                • 20615

                                                                #32
                                                                holliday has, unarguably, the biggest gap in home road splits i have ever seen
                                                                and you cant prove luck
                                                                Comment
                                                                • BadBeatBodog
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 06-05-08
                                                                  • 1006

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by ryanXL977
                                                                  holliday has, unarguably, the biggest gap in home road splits i have ever seen
                                                                  and you cant prove luck
                                                                  So Coors gives Holliday supernatural powers that no one else gets when they play there?

                                                                  The best way to explain BAbip extremes is luck. That's basically what the stat is showing. It has been proven. Read up on it if you wish to educate yourself; there are plenty of great articles on the subject.
                                                                  "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

                                                                  "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • ryanXL977
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 02-24-08
                                                                    • 20615

                                                                    #34
                                                                    everything is luck, or random, in baseball
                                                                    the ball bounce, the homer off the angels reliver in the 11th or 12th was out by 2 feet
                                                                    thats baseball, thats sports. you cant quantify it no matter who tells you that you can.

                                                                    and holliday has the biggest home road splits i have ever seen .find me a bigger gap of player currently

                                                                    i challenge you
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • BadBeatBodog
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 06-05-08
                                                                      • 1006

                                                                      #35
                                                                      If anything Coors gives Dunn more of an advantage because he's much more of a fly ball hitter than Holliday is.
                                                                      "Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"

                                                                      "Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"
                                                                      Comment
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