LTA's MLB Plays

[Donnie Brasco]

Tough night boys. Good luck today!

[mt675826]

Holy **** what a brutal night. Took a couple hard hits. That was one of the worst defensive efforts I've ever seen... absolute garbage. Leaning Texas for tonight, hoping LTA has a call on the total...

[Love The Action]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/15/11

Play #1

Tigers ML (+142) 1x (Locked)

I've been waiting all day to lock up as much value as possible and I don't think it gets above +142. The best I had available was +144 and I thought it might get a little above that, but it never materialized. I have this one set at +130, so we're getting over ten cents value in this spot with the Tigers. Bottom line is that I think Scherzer is more of a pressure pitcher than Holland. Going through the situational splits reveals Scherzer to have a sizable advantage in high leverage situations and with runners in scoring position. In the first game between these two pitchers, Scherzer had the lead late in the game until an eventual Cruz homerun tied it up and then won it in extra innings with a grand slam. I don't expect such theatrics tonight. I read a couple interviews with Scherzer which revealed his plans to pitch Cruz and the rest of his teammates aggressively. I agree with that mentality and it reeks of confidence. I like a guy with a confident mentality going into such a big game. He's not going to get raddled when guys get on base and I like to invest in a pitcher who believes in himself. Both pitchers have pitched relatively well against these lineups and I expect a close game today. Detroits bullpen is rested and should be able to take over if Scherzer gets into trouble. I expect a game 7 in this series, which might be a good spot to back the Rangers. However, in this game I'm rolling with the Tigers and the ten cents of value for 1x. Good luck.

[Donnie Brasco]

Bol bro, time to get some breaks!

[toddorts]

I see a lot more value than ten cents, but I definitely agree with the play. The Tigers have this one. Good luck!

[qbsafety8]

so youre betting it based off the value and the fact that u think the pitcher has confidence??? ...hmmm maybe but idk

giving up the runs and taking tex -1.5... think their lineup gets it done. wont be surprised when they put up a 5 or 6 run inning.

[Love The Action]

so youre betting it based off the value and the fact that u think the pitcher has confidence??? ...hmmm maybe but idk

giving up the runs and taking tex -1.5... think their lineup gets it done. wont be surprised when they put up a 5 or 6 run inning.

No, but I've gone through all the stats in this pitching matchup last week and I really didn't feel like doing it all again.

Do you really think Texas has a huge advantage in this pitching matchup? You can question my reasoning, but all you stated in support of your Texas play is that you "won't be surprised when they put up a 5 or 6 run inning." I suppose that wasn't one of my better writeups, but I'm juggling a baby, finishing off some work stuff, capping NCAAF and capping MLB today so cut me some slack. It's not your reasoning is breakthrough stuff either....

[Love The Action]

I see a lot more value than ten cents, but I definitely agree with the play. The Tigers have this one. Good luck!

What do you have as a fair number? GL

[qbsafety8]

i wasnt attacking you so u dont gotta be on the defense....

i think pitching is average for both teams for this big of a game... but i like the texas bats better. putting up 3 runs vs. verlander (still throwing 100 mph in the 7th btw ) is not bad at all... and i dont expect the detroit lineup to hit for another collective cycle to help score runs.

i'm not posting a reason for my pick, just was asking a lil more about yrs bro

[toddorts]

What do you have as a fair number? GL

I actually think the Tigers have a slight edge here. The pitchers are evenly matched, with maybe a tiny edge for Holland, and the Rangers obviously have the homefield advantage, but I see the Tigers' bats more than making up for it. They've been very strong against average pitching all season, and while the Rangers have also done well, they haven't quite had the same power. I'd take Detroit at just about anything plus money. I managed to find a +147 this morning, though, so I was very happy.

[Trivial]

Locked at +143, but 2 minutes later it is +147. I hate it when that happens. Oh well.

[Love The Action]

i wasnt attacking you so u dont gotta be on the defense....

i think pitching is average for both teams for this big of a game... but i like the texas bats better. putting up 3 runs vs. verlander (still throwing 100 mph in the 7th btw ) is not bad at all... and i dont expect the detroit lineup to hit for another collective cycle to help score runs.

i'm not posting a reason for my pick, just was asking a lil more about yrs bro

Not on the defense bud, just wondering what your reasons for backing Texas on the runline? About 29% of all games end in one run difference during the regular season and in the playoffs that percentage increases. Was wondering why you were so confident in a Texas romp?

[Love The Action]

I actually think the Tigers have a slight edge here. The pitchers are evenly matched, with maybe a tiny edge for Holland, and the Rangers obviously have the homefield advantage, but I see the Tigers' bats more than making up for it. They've been very strong against average pitching all season, and while the Rangers have also done well, they haven't quite had the same power. I'd take Detroit at just about anything plus money. I managed to find a +147 this morning, though, so I was very happy.

You would take Detroit at +101? No way....

I have Detroit set at +130.

Home field alone puts Texas at -120, so I would say you are way off giving Detroit any value if they are at plus money. I hope you're right, but I'm not too excited about the recent line move. I was expecting a close around +139 but didn't get it...

[Love The Action]

Locked at +143, but 2 minutes later it is +147. I hate it when that happens. Oh well.

Yeah, not happy about it either. I was out taking the baby for a walk with the dog and Pinny moved from +144 to +140. I figured a bigger move on Detroit was coming and I was still able to get +142, so I jumped on it. Bad move on my part unless we get some late Detroit money....GL

[Trivial]

Yeah, not happy about it either. I was out taking the baby for a walk with the dog and Pinny moved from +144 to +140. I figured a bigger move on Detroit was coming and I was still able to get +142, so I jumped on it. Bad move on my part unless we get some late Detroit money....GL

GL on all remaining plays man. This one sounds solid. Now if only Stanford would start scoring in NCAAF. :-)

[Trivial]

GL on all remaining plays man. This one sounds solid. Now if only Stanford would start scoring in NCAAF. :-)

And just as I typed this - fumble. Stanford ball. I should do more typing.

[DigBick86]

I PERSONALLY GIVE THE pitching edge to Tigers,homefield+bullpen to texas and yes i know Velverde and benoit are availible but velverde hasent been himself the latest games. So theres definetly value on Tigers today and think the way theese teams have performed there should be a game 7

[Trivial]

Texas +126 at Pinny live bet. Considering it. Thay way, I win no matter what. :-). Deciding...

[Trivial]

Now +157 for Texas. Just took it. How can you go wrong with both sides at +143 and +157 ?

[qbsafety8]

no reason why detroit cant do the same as texas is doing.... but the 3rd inning is what i foresaw lol

[Love The Action]

Now +157 for Texas. Just took it. How can you go wrong with both sides at +143 and +157 ?

Great arb

[Love The Action]

Congrats Rangers backers

[Trivial]

no reason why detroit cant do the same as texas is doing.... but the 3rd inning is what i foresaw lol

I am hoping for Detroit to come back and win. I really am.

[815Sox]

Now +157 for Texas. Just took it. How can you go wrong with both sides at +143 and +157 ?

I didn't play this game, but I have always wondered, do books get mad if you do this? I only use one book and do not bet any significant amount (20 is usually the most I play). Maybe I should just bite the bullet and open a bodog or legends account.

[Trivial]

I didn't play this game, but I have always wondered, do books get mad if you do this? I only use one book and do not bet any significant amount (20 is usually the most I play). Maybe I should just bite the bullet and open a bodog or legends account.

I have never been told not to do this. I mean, I do it more often in football when the team I did NOT wager on clearly is more prepared for the game than the team I did wager on, and I bet the other way.

I just opened new accounts recently myself.

[Trivial]

Great arb

arb?

[Love The Action]

arb?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage_betting

[Love The Action]

I didn't play this game, but I have always wondered, do books get mad if you do this? I only use one book and do not bet any significant amount (20 is usually the most I play). Maybe I should just bite the bullet and open a bodog or legends account.

You're best doing this through multiple accounts.

Arbitrage betting requires max bets to make any money and books don't like losing money. If they see you doing this over and over, they will launch you. If you are just making some sharp arbs here and there with your regular wager amounts, in similar situations like Trivial where it's more likely you are just betting out of a potentially losing position, then you should be ok.

Regardless, I highly recommend you getting multiple accounts at different outlets you can shop for the best price.

[toddorts]

You would take Detroit at +101? No way....

Yes, I would have. Turned out neither of us were right, though.

[Love The Action]

Yes, I would have. Turned out neither of us were right, though.

Well, I didn't beat the closer so that means it was a bad play all around. To me, it's about making profitable wagers whenever possible, win or lose. A profitable wager is one where you get a better price than the rest of the market as evidenced by beating the efficiency of the closing number.

For example, you said you would have taken Detroit at +101 yesterday. However, a play at +101 when it closes at +150 would be a horribly unprofitable bet over time. That's a big time losing proposition. Anytime you lose 49 cents to the efficiency of the closing market, you are doomed whether you win or lose the game.

I don't understand how you could you price Detroit at +101, when they would be at least +110 just based on playing on the road and not figuring in other advantages that the Rangers had in that game. Something is off with that one...

How did you price Scherzer in comparison to Holland? I had them pretty similar with just a slight edge to Scherzer based on the situational splits (high leverage, etc.).

Maybe you just had Scherzer way overpriced in relation to Holland?

Oh well, that one's over anyway. What do you have for a fair price in today's games?

Good luck bud

[toddorts]

I don't understand how you could you price Detroit at +101, when they would be at least +110 just based on playing on the road and not figuring in other advantages that the Rangers had in that game. Something is off with that one...

How did you price Scherzer in comparison to Holland? I had them pretty similar with just a slight edge to Scherzer based on the situational splits (high leverage, etc.).

Maybe you just had Scherzer way overpriced in relation to Holland?

The difference wasn't pitching. I had Holland and Scherzer pretty much evenly matched. It was all about offensive stats. I maintain my own database with custom advanced stats for pitching and offense that are used in formulas that I've developed and fine-tuned over time. Corrections are then made for homefield advantage, stadium factors, etc. Although the Rangers did get credit for homefield advantage, it wasn't enough to overcome the offensive advantage that my formulas gave to Detroit. When it was all said and done, with all corrections made, it was basically a PK line. That made Detroit an easy choice at +147. Too bad it didn't turn out that way. Thankfully I also had over 9 at EV money, so it was a break-even day for me.

Oh well, that one's over anyway. What do you have for a fair price in today's games?

I've calculated the Brewers at -137 today. That gives a little bit of value on the ML, but not a ton. I found more value in the Brewers RL at +170.

Good luck bud

Same to you!

[Love The Action]

MLB Final Numbers for Regular Season 2011

418 - 378 = +38.03x

MLB 2011 Playoff Recap 10/16/11

0 - 1 = -1x

That play on Detroit was just a bad play all the way around...the closer beat me by 6 cents and Detroit got hammered.

MLB 2011 Playoffs

13 - 9 = +4.012x

[Love The Action]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/16/11

Play #1

Cardinals ML (+117) 1x (Locked)

Might get a writeup done later if I have time. Good luck.

[italianbandit]

Good luck LTA, I like the under 8.5 with no juice.

[Trivial]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage_betting

Thanks. I have never been told this was an issue, but good to know. I think Live Bets are slightly different though, but good to double check.