Hello all,
I have been slowly working on a system and I was looking for a place to track, for better or worse, its results. I did some regression analysis on some of the advanced metrics from Baseball Prospectus to give me some predicted runs scored and allowed for each team in an individual game. Without going into too much detail, I'll be using EQA for RS and a combination of the Support Neutral stats for starters and Adjusted Runs Prevented for the bullpens to determine RA. Explanations of those stats can be found in the glossary at the BP website, for those interested. If there are any other questions or comments, please feel free to address them here. I'm trying to learn as much as everyone else here. Anyway, on to the picks for today.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Cubs (Lilly) @ Astros (Moehler): I don't really have enough quality information on Brian Moehler as a starter to give a solid line for this game, as he has only thrown ten innings as a start in the past two seasons. This is a no play for me.
Phillies (Myers) @ Nationals (Redding): I'm not really happy with the amount of information I have for both guys in the last two years but it does show some trends. As much as people believe Brett Myers to be a quality starting pitcher, the last time he actually showed was 2006. Injuries and a move to the bullpen constituted his 2007 season, and thus far in 2008, Myers has been terrible. Now in no way am I trying to claim that Tim Redding is a world beater, but over the 135 innings he's thrown between this year and last, he has shown himself to be a completely league average starter. I have the Nationals winning this game 53.19% of the time, corresponding to a -114 line.
Giants (Misch) @ Rockies (De La Rosa): With a small amount of information on Pat Misch over the past two years (35 starting innings), I am not very confident in my line. Then again, De La Rosa was basically just claimed from the Royals, so the Rockies aren't exactly throwing out their best. My numbers have the Rockies winning 55.53% of the time with a line of -125. This is a no play due to lack of information, to me.
Reds (Arroyo) @ Dodgers (Penny): With a wealth of information between these two starters, I like the Dodgers here. Arroyo simply isn't very good in a game-by-game environment. Not to mention the Dodgers have a significant bullpen edge. I've got the Dodgers winning 62.79% of the time which is a -169 line.
Royals (Hochevar) @ Red Sox (Lester): While the amount of professional innings these guys have thrown is low, I feel comfortable calling them similar pitchers. Not in the way they play the game, but in the results they are likely to achieve. Both are highly regarded, young pitchers who have been around average so far in their MLB careers. The difference between these teams is their offense. Boston is hitting 42 points higher in EQA and that makes the difference. I have Boston winning 63.93% of the time for a -177 line.
Rangers (Feldman) @ Twins (Bonser): With only 25 innings started in the last year and a half for Scott Feldman, my projections are meaningless here. This is a no play.
Rays (Shields) @ A's (Blanton): This match up is one with very little edge based on the lines at press time. The difference between Shield and Blanton in terms of keeping runs off of the board is basically 0.16 runs per game, assuming that they both go the distance. Both bullpens have been mirror images of each other this year. The main difference between the teams is a six point difference in EQA in the Rays favor. This brings the Rays in at 53.96% with a line of -117.
Cardinals (Wellemeyer) @ Padres (Ledezma): Ledezma has started 6.3 innings between '07 and '08, so I'm not going anywhere near this one. No play.
Picks (lines are from Pinnacle roughly 30 minutes before this post)
Nationals +116
Dodgers -146
Red Sox -171
Rays -117
I have been slowly working on a system and I was looking for a place to track, for better or worse, its results. I did some regression analysis on some of the advanced metrics from Baseball Prospectus to give me some predicted runs scored and allowed for each team in an individual game. Without going into too much detail, I'll be using EQA for RS and a combination of the Support Neutral stats for starters and Adjusted Runs Prevented for the bullpens to determine RA. Explanations of those stats can be found in the glossary at the BP website, for those interested. If there are any other questions or comments, please feel free to address them here. I'm trying to learn as much as everyone else here. Anyway, on to the picks for today.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Cubs (Lilly) @ Astros (Moehler): I don't really have enough quality information on Brian Moehler as a starter to give a solid line for this game, as he has only thrown ten innings as a start in the past two seasons. This is a no play for me.
Phillies (Myers) @ Nationals (Redding): I'm not really happy with the amount of information I have for both guys in the last two years but it does show some trends. As much as people believe Brett Myers to be a quality starting pitcher, the last time he actually showed was 2006. Injuries and a move to the bullpen constituted his 2007 season, and thus far in 2008, Myers has been terrible. Now in no way am I trying to claim that Tim Redding is a world beater, but over the 135 innings he's thrown between this year and last, he has shown himself to be a completely league average starter. I have the Nationals winning this game 53.19% of the time, corresponding to a -114 line.
Giants (Misch) @ Rockies (De La Rosa): With a small amount of information on Pat Misch over the past two years (35 starting innings), I am not very confident in my line. Then again, De La Rosa was basically just claimed from the Royals, so the Rockies aren't exactly throwing out their best. My numbers have the Rockies winning 55.53% of the time with a line of -125. This is a no play due to lack of information, to me.
Reds (Arroyo) @ Dodgers (Penny): With a wealth of information between these two starters, I like the Dodgers here. Arroyo simply isn't very good in a game-by-game environment. Not to mention the Dodgers have a significant bullpen edge. I've got the Dodgers winning 62.79% of the time which is a -169 line.
Royals (Hochevar) @ Red Sox (Lester): While the amount of professional innings these guys have thrown is low, I feel comfortable calling them similar pitchers. Not in the way they play the game, but in the results they are likely to achieve. Both are highly regarded, young pitchers who have been around average so far in their MLB careers. The difference between these teams is their offense. Boston is hitting 42 points higher in EQA and that makes the difference. I have Boston winning 63.93% of the time for a -177 line.
Rangers (Feldman) @ Twins (Bonser): With only 25 innings started in the last year and a half for Scott Feldman, my projections are meaningless here. This is a no play.
Rays (Shields) @ A's (Blanton): This match up is one with very little edge based on the lines at press time. The difference between Shield and Blanton in terms of keeping runs off of the board is basically 0.16 runs per game, assuming that they both go the distance. Both bullpens have been mirror images of each other this year. The main difference between the teams is a six point difference in EQA in the Rays favor. This brings the Rays in at 53.96% with a line of -117.
Cardinals (Wellemeyer) @ Padres (Ledezma): Ledezma has started 6.3 innings between '07 and '08, so I'm not going anywhere near this one. No play.
Picks (lines are from Pinnacle roughly 30 minutes before this post)
Nationals +116
Dodgers -146
Red Sox -171
Rays -117
