The system

**jorge1** · 04-26-11, 07:58 AM

For first inning runs I would compile prices for the prop and game totals.

Once u have sufficient data u can see fair odds at each total. That's easies approach. Others can come up w more.

But let me warn u. This prop is full of flukes. One inning anything can happen so u r more prone to margin of error. U know?

**Dollar Bin** · 04-26-11, 08:06 AM

Sending all the points I can. In the process of becoming a pro to send you more than 2 a day.

Thanks for the picks!

**ClausensHands** · 04-26-11, 09:01 AM

Originally posted by jorge1

I decided some things. First. No plays on nyy or bos unless its fading them. Their lines are heavily weighed by public perception so. No can do. Phllies are also in the same pile for now. I'm coming up with some good filters because I like the percentages we r hitting but I think I could thin out some plays. It takes time though.

Any reason you went against this line of thought with your plays yesterday? I just think you are on the right track with a filter like that. If the system depends on lines/movement in some way it is hard to expect it to account for the unjustified inflation of Phillies/Yanks/etc. Of course it is easy to say that after the games like I am doing now.

Anyways, as far as I am concerned the picks yesterday only justified the system further. Excellent work.

**Titan_12** · 04-26-11, 09:07 AM

Good Luck today Jorge! Let's get'em!

**goldblaze** · 04-26-11, 10:04 AM

Not seeing picks?

**terrortwylight** · 04-26-11, 10:09 AM

anxiously awaiting the card!!!

**Hip2Bsq** · 04-26-11, 10:10 AM

Last I heard jorge was working on the card still.

**Titan_12** · 04-26-11, 10:23 AM

Games don't start til 7, so he's got all the time in the world to post. I'm sure they'll be up soon

**mac miller** · 04-26-11, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by jorge1

For first inning runs I would compile prices for the prop and game totals.

Once u have sufficient data u can see fair odds at each total. That's easies approach. Others can come up w more.

But let me warn u. This prop is full of flukes. One inning anything can happen so u r more prone to margin of error. U know?

i can help out with some of the data for NO runs in the 1st inning.. in the past 12 days have a record of (34-18) based off game total, weather, percentage of run in 1st inning, etc.. this includes some yes runs too though which im terrible at and i don't think i hit a yes run yet, so i may just get rid of that... at around 70% in calculating no runs though so if you need any help with that let me know.. i have a thread on this forum too keeping track of my picks

**jorge1** · 04-26-11, 10:37 AM

Originally posted by ClausensHands

Any reason you went against this line of thought with your plays yesterday? I just think you are on the right track with a filter like that. If the system depends on lines/movement in some way it is hard to expect it to account for the unjustified inflation of Phillies/Yanks/etc. Of course it is easy to say that after the games like I am doing now. Anyways, as far as I am concerned the picks yesterday only justified the system further. Excellent work.

yuppp...the system never seizes to amaze me...honestly, its been few times that i picked something right against it..instead, the shit beats me all the time

Originally posted by Titan_12

Good Luck today Jorge! Let's get'em!

thanks braw braw

**Hip2Bsq** · 04-26-11, 10:38 AM

Twins games =16no 5yes

**jorge1** · 04-26-11, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by terrortwylight

anxiously awaiting the card!!!

Will be out soon...no worry...i had it since last night but i decided to post a final card instead of changes through the day...that way ppl dont talk shit saying i change plays and its hard to follow...plus i honestly jsut hadnt felt like posting it yet...ive been working alot all morning..

Originally posted by Hip2Bsq

Last I heard jorge was working on the card still.

not really..done since last night..check PM

Originally posted by Titan_12

Games don't start til 7, so he's got all the time in the world to post. I'm sure they'll be up soon

true...but it be nice for u guys to have gotten overnight lines...

but in all hoensty, i dunno which of u r really following or not...and if u use these to compliment your leans, or if u tail blindly..so since i havent known who is 100% tailing, i dont feel pressure to release an early card to get you the best prices...sorry...

but ill generally post em the night before always...

**eddie0vedder** · 04-26-11, 10:46 AM

im tailing to the tee, im in australia so i lay down the bets before bed, just waiting on the card so i can have sweet baseball dreams

**goldblaze** · 04-26-11, 10:47 AM

Your killing it, I like to see night before (best for my work schedule), but I understand you gotta do what works best for you.

**Titan_12** · 04-26-11, 10:47 AM

Been following since 4/19 (every play), and liking the results!

**kazidog** · 04-26-11, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by jorge1

Will be out soon...no worry...i had it since last night but i decided to post a final card instead of changes through the day...that way ppl dont talk shit saying i change plays and its hard to follow...plus i honestly jsut hadnt felt like posting it yet...ive been working alot all morning..

not really..done since last night..check PM

true...but it be nice for u guys to have gotten overnight lines...

but in all hoensty, i dunno which of u r really following or not...and if u use these to compliment your leans, or if u tail blindly..so since i havent known who is 100% tailing, i dont feel pressure to release an early card to get you the best prices...sorry...

but ill generally post em the night before always...

jorge1

Is this your Twitter id also? Looked on their under jorge1 and could not find your posts. Please let me know what your twitter id is so I can follow you. Thanks. My first time on your thread. BOL

**schaeon** · 04-26-11, 10:50 AM

Hello jorge1, thank you for all the work you are doing with the "system." I am following blindly starting yesterday. I missed the two add on plays, but that was my fault [at Lake all day no access to internet]. I would like to try and shop lines as much as possible and would request you put out the "partial" card whenever you have it ready [overnight, early morning, etc].

**Kasdanh** · 04-26-11, 11:02 AM

Great job so far Jorge! Keep it up.

**PokerDave** · 04-26-11, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by jorge1

But none have overnight nickle lines like 5d does. Unbeatable

This is a GREAT POINT... Thats the nice thing about you posting the picks
the night before, so we can save a little VIG. Thanks again for the OVERNIGHT
NICKLE LINE PICKS

OUT (more sbr points on the way)

**terrortwylight** · 04-26-11, 11:45 AM

yeah, i've been tailing you pretty hard for since about the 20th..

**bstn** · 04-26-11, 11:49 AM

atlanta tt 3,5
san diego tt 3,5

it is 7 and i have totat set on 6,5 that mean it is under system play?? am i right?

**jorge1** · 04-26-11, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by bstn

atlanta tt 3,5 san diego tt 3,5 it is 7 and i have totat set on 6,5 that mean it is under system play?? am i right?

intuitively, YES...but id havve to look more into it!

**jorge1** · 04-26-11, 12:13 PM

4/26 -

col -126 1x

phi -123 1x

atl -114 1x

lad -133 1x

stl -129 1x

nyy -129 1x

bos -124 1x

oak -127 1x

tex rl +115 1x

det +111 1x

tb +125 1x

kc +144 1x

cin +103 1x

nym +113 1x

pit +130 1x

col/chc u13 -130 1x

tor/tex o9 -118 1x

tail, fade..do what you please..just don't complain to me...

**jorge1** · 04-26-11, 12:15 PM

Originally posted by kazidog

jorge1 is this your twitter id also? Looked on their under jorge1 and could not find your posts. Please let me know what your twitter id is so i can follow you. Thanks. My first time on your thread. Bol

no offense but i dont like twitter, facebook, myspace, or any of that junk...sorry...im not that public of a figure to do so...but plays are here so feel free to use them at your own discretion

**terrortwylight** · 04-26-11, 12:19 PM

thank you jorge! for real

**lilb999** · 04-26-11, 12:21 PM

Good shit man!

Whats the overall record so far?

**bstn** · 04-26-11, 12:25 PM

lot of

today

where do you look at openning lines for tt totals jorge?

**jorge1** · 04-26-11, 12:29 PM

Maybe this is sloppy but I look at 5d for my tt. I should prob be lookin at bookmaker right?

I'm not too crazy bout totals btw. Way easier to profit with sides.

**jorge1** · 04-26-11, 12:33 PM

Ill update record later. But is it that hard flippin a few pages? Lol

**ClausensHands** · 04-26-11, 12:37 PM

I just quit my job as a programmer. I got bored today and created a database to keep track of the MLB picks you make in this thread. I am keeping track of the lines, winning/losing teams, type of pick (ML, RL, 1R), etc. Not that you need any help obviously, but if you want some data I can pull it for you (example: percentage of time the System picks DET as an underdog against NYY and they win). The system is obviously in place, but if some extra data might help you with filters let me know.

This is the first query I ran, looking at all ML picks by team and percentage picked successfully. Hope this is OK to post here, and by the way I won't post anything else like this unless you ask.

WinningTeamID WINS TOTAL Win %
------------- ----------- ----------- ----------------------
DET 5 5 1
MIN 4 4 1
TOR 3 3 1
KAN 2 2 1
NYY 2 2 1
CHC 2 2 1
FLA 2 2 1
CIN 2 2 1
NYM 1 1 1
STL 1 1 1
COL 5 6 0.833333333333333
BOS 3 4 0.75
SFG 3 4 0.75
PHI 2 3 0.666666666666667
SEA 2 3 0.666666666666667
MIL 2 3 0.666666666666667
LAA 3 5 0.6
TAM 4 7 0.571428571428571
HOU 3 6 0.5
LAD 2 4 0.5
SDP 2 4 0.5
CLE 2 4 0.5
WAS 2 5 0.4
PIT 2 5 0.4
ATL 2 5 0.4
BAL 2 5 0.4
OAK 1 3 0.333333333333333
ARZ 1 4 0.25
CHW 0 2 0

Edit: TEX not on the list because you haven't picked them on the ML. Your picks are 2-0 on TEX RL.

**Titan_12** · 04-26-11, 12:44 PM

A lot of plays, like it! Tailing them all, Thanks Jorge!

**Galante118** · 04-26-11, 12:50 PM

hey first post just registered to tell you thanks for the system and ive been blindly following the past 2 days and plan on doing it the majority of the season. quick question are these plays the system or do they include the three you wanted to change and go against the system?

**jorge1** · 04-26-11, 12:50 PM

Clausen. Pm me ur number.

**bstn** · 04-26-11, 12:51 PM

**LockPickMaster** · 04-26-11, 12:52 PM

parlayed all the sides to win 28.8 grand tonight