ok so as of today i am in FIRST PLACE in the Big Unit contest.
I have been on FIRE ever since march madness.
2 nights ago I had my first losing night in almost 3 weeks.
I don't post a lot but when I do, I don't let people down.
I hate the word "lock".
I don't use the word, "guarantee".
We gamble - there is always RISK.
what I am about to tell you is a move that you can use to get back to even for the week or a move that you can double whatever you are up.
EVERYTHING from a handicapper's perspective points to the LA/AZ game going over tonight.
1. Both pitchers suck.
2. Gonzalez is 1-4 with a 8.48 lifetime vs. LA
3. Billingsley is 4-2 with a 3.19 lifetime vs. AZ but he is 0-3 with a 6.14 this year.
4. Both pitchers (Gonzales, Billingsley) have a combined ERA of 10.64 and a combined record of 0-4.
5. Even though Billingsley "appears" to have had succes vs. AZ Mark Reynolds in 4-4 with 2HR against him.
6. There are 4 players in LA's starting lineup that have a career BA over .500 vs. Gonzalez with James Loney hitting a robust .833 against him.
7. These two teams combined for 11 runs on 23 hits against two aces Haren and Lowe last night.
8. Juan Pierre career .500 vs Gonzalez is back in the lineup tonight.
9. Rafael Furcal is hitting the @&*^$ out of the ball lately.
10. Everything that i can see points to an 11-7 ball game.
And that is why my biggest bet of the year is LA/AZ Under 8!
I thought a fair total for this game would be 9.5 or 10.
Not Only was the line set and opened at 8.5. But in the face of all 10 signs listed above the total has gone down to 8.
I was prepared to bet a dime on the over until i saw the only thing that is worth seeing when it somes to betting a game, and that is where the line is set.
So long as you have your finger on the pulse of the game and you have a good feel for where lines "should" open at then you will be able from time to time isolate outright line traps like this one. They don't happen that often. You might find 2 or 3 legit line traps per week where all signs point to either one side or an over or an under, and yet the line is nowhere near where you think it should be. In this case not only is the line set at least one run too low, but the heavy early money has gone to the under.
It wouldn't surprise me to see it flash back up to 8.5 or 9 once the betting public wipes the saliva from their lap and once again bets an "obvious over".
Different situation but equally as profitable is using this forum to see where everyone is betting. Case in point last night the WORLD LOVED AZ. therefore LA became the correct play. and yes while i woke up yesterday loving az as well once i saw that 95% of everyone else felt the same way i knew it was the wrong side. so i backed off AZ and used Balt +116, Fla +130, and Hou +133 for a 3-0 3 dog night ( and that is documented if you go to page 2 of yesterdays contests posts). today i used over in philly a 3-1 loser which once i saw that the Louisville Kid loved that over as well i knew i was a loser, and i used under in the minn/oak game which i got creamed in as well. my third and final play for the contest is wash +130 which i fully plan to win even though i am currently down 1-0 in that game.
I am telling you all right now that you can bet the under in the LA/AZ game for whatever you want. this is a move that you will see 2-3 times per week and is as close to a guaranteed winner as humanly possible and the reason it is such an easy money in the bank bet is because you would have to a complete idiot to like the under in this game. you folow me?? Nothing out there suggests that this game has any chance of staying under, and THAT IS WHY IT WILL. do you all understand?
I am betting the under for 3500 which is the single biggest bet i have made year to date. I am so confident that it is a winner that i am going to be asleep by 10pm this evening. i will wake up to find out what i already know and that is that the line is telling the world that the UNDER IN LA/AZ cannot lose.
Before you say it...... You are Welcome!
I have been on FIRE ever since march madness.
2 nights ago I had my first losing night in almost 3 weeks.
I don't post a lot but when I do, I don't let people down.
I hate the word "lock".
I don't use the word, "guarantee".
We gamble - there is always RISK.
what I am about to tell you is a move that you can use to get back to even for the week or a move that you can double whatever you are up.
EVERYTHING from a handicapper's perspective points to the LA/AZ game going over tonight.
1. Both pitchers suck.
2. Gonzalez is 1-4 with a 8.48 lifetime vs. LA
3. Billingsley is 4-2 with a 3.19 lifetime vs. AZ but he is 0-3 with a 6.14 this year.
4. Both pitchers (Gonzales, Billingsley) have a combined ERA of 10.64 and a combined record of 0-4.
5. Even though Billingsley "appears" to have had succes vs. AZ Mark Reynolds in 4-4 with 2HR against him.
6. There are 4 players in LA's starting lineup that have a career BA over .500 vs. Gonzalez with James Loney hitting a robust .833 against him.
7. These two teams combined for 11 runs on 23 hits against two aces Haren and Lowe last night.
8. Juan Pierre career .500 vs Gonzalez is back in the lineup tonight.
9. Rafael Furcal is hitting the @&*^$ out of the ball lately.
10. Everything that i can see points to an 11-7 ball game.
And that is why my biggest bet of the year is LA/AZ Under 8!
I thought a fair total for this game would be 9.5 or 10.
Not Only was the line set and opened at 8.5. But in the face of all 10 signs listed above the total has gone down to 8.
I was prepared to bet a dime on the over until i saw the only thing that is worth seeing when it somes to betting a game, and that is where the line is set.
So long as you have your finger on the pulse of the game and you have a good feel for where lines "should" open at then you will be able from time to time isolate outright line traps like this one. They don't happen that often. You might find 2 or 3 legit line traps per week where all signs point to either one side or an over or an under, and yet the line is nowhere near where you think it should be. In this case not only is the line set at least one run too low, but the heavy early money has gone to the under.
It wouldn't surprise me to see it flash back up to 8.5 or 9 once the betting public wipes the saliva from their lap and once again bets an "obvious over".
Different situation but equally as profitable is using this forum to see where everyone is betting. Case in point last night the WORLD LOVED AZ. therefore LA became the correct play. and yes while i woke up yesterday loving az as well once i saw that 95% of everyone else felt the same way i knew it was the wrong side. so i backed off AZ and used Balt +116, Fla +130, and Hou +133 for a 3-0 3 dog night ( and that is documented if you go to page 2 of yesterdays contests posts). today i used over in philly a 3-1 loser which once i saw that the Louisville Kid loved that over as well i knew i was a loser, and i used under in the minn/oak game which i got creamed in as well. my third and final play for the contest is wash +130 which i fully plan to win even though i am currently down 1-0 in that game.
I am telling you all right now that you can bet the under in the LA/AZ game for whatever you want. this is a move that you will see 2-3 times per week and is as close to a guaranteed winner as humanly possible and the reason it is such an easy money in the bank bet is because you would have to a complete idiot to like the under in this game. you folow me?? Nothing out there suggests that this game has any chance of staying under, and THAT IS WHY IT WILL. do you all understand?
I am betting the under for 3500 which is the single biggest bet i have made year to date. I am so confident that it is a winner that i am going to be asleep by 10pm this evening. i will wake up to find out what i already know and that is that the line is telling the world that the UNDER IN LA/AZ cannot lose.
Before you say it...... You are Welcome!
