NL Central 2011

EXhoosier10 · 01-30-11, 03:33 PM

Chicago Cubs
Acquisitions
Matt Garza
Carlos Pena
Kerry Wood

Departures
Tom Gorzelanny
Xavier Nady

With regards to 2011, I like the Cubs chances of improving on last years 75-87 record, although, not by much. First, lets look at their projected starters and rotation:
C - Geovany Soto :R / Koyie Hill :S
1B - Carlos Pena :L
2B - Blake DeWitt :L
SS - Starlin Castro :R
3B - Aramis Ramirez :R
LF - Alfonso Soriano :R
CF - Marlon Byrd :R
RF - Tyler Colvin :L / Kosuke Fukudome :L

sp1 - Ryan Dempster :R
sp2 - Matt Garza :R
sp3 - Carlos Zambrano :R
sp4 - Randy Wells :R
sp5 - Carlos Silva :R
cl - Carlos Marmol :R

At a glance:
- Rotation is all righties and may struggle a bit while facing lefty-heavy lineups
- Cubs were 2nd most stolen on pitching staff in the NL with Soto and Hill throwing out 22 and 18% of base stealers last year, (6th and 4th worst out of all NL catchers with 150 innings
- Middle of the lineup has 1 lefty in Pena, enough to make managers use bullpen against Righty Lefty Righty
- Don't expect Garza to be an ace moving to NL due to lack of defense in Chicago compared to Tampa Bay

Overall, the Cubs pitching should maintain its performance relative to last year barring some sort of implosion from Carlos Silva while the hitting and fielding will keep this team from being a playoff contender (For a better look at how the cubs hitters compare to 2010's playoff teams, http://www.anothercubsblog.net/chica...ontenders.html). Without an exceedingly productive year from any of their starting 8, the Cubs will continue to linger in the lower half of the NL Central.

815Sox · 01-30-11, 05:25 PM

Milwaukee got much more dangerous this year. Grienke is going to do very very well in the NL. I think the Cubs will do better then last year, probably end up in third or 4th. I predict the Reds continue to do well. St Louis I just cannot put a finger on. Pirates and Houston battle to stay out of the basement.

1. Milwaukee
2. Reds
3. St Louis
4. Chicago
5. Pittsburgh
6. Astros

Willie Bee · 01-31-11, 07:13 AM

First, one of the best places to find info on the Astros is www.astrosdaily.com

I've been following that team since 1962, so I'll pop in once Spring Training goes to offer what I know, or at least what I think I know

For starters, I'll just offer up a warning to all futures bettors regardless of teams they're looking at, as well as get specific about the NL Central on the issue of THE SCHEDULE. If you haven't disected the schedule of a team you're making a futures wager on, you're failing in your research. Schedules across the league are very, very unlevel. For example, the LA Angels will play each team in the AL West 19 times this year, with 10 games against each at home in Anaheim and just 9 versus each on the road. For the Texas Rangers, the opposite is true (9 home games vs. each division foe, 10 road games).

The Cubs have a 9-6 advantage vs. Houston, 9-7 vs. Pittsburgh, 6-9 disadvantage vs. St. Louis and 7-9 vs. Milwaukee. They split with the Reds, 9-9.

Cincinnati: 9-6 (Home-Away) vs. Houston, 9-7 vs. Milwaukee, 6-9 vs. Pittsburgh, 6-9 vs. St. Louis.

Houston: splits 9-9 with Pittsburgh, 6-9 vs. Cubs and Reds, 9-6 vs. Brewers and Cardinals.

Milwaukee: splits 9-9 with St. Louis, 9-7 vs. Cubs, 9-6 vs. Pirates, 6-9 vs. Astros, 7-9 vs. Reds.

Pittsburgh: splits 9-9 with Houston, 9-6 vs. Reds, 9-7 vs. Cards, 7-9 vs. Cubs, 6-9 vs. Brewers.

St. Louis: splits 9-9 with Brew Crew; 9-6 vs. Cubs, 9-6 vs. Reds, 6-9 vs. Astros, 7-9 vs. Pirates.

EXhoosier10 · 01-31-11, 09:07 PM

Thanks Willie!! I'll be sure to put this data into all the posts in an effort to accumulate all relevant team data into one post for ease of other readers. Does anyone else have something they'd like to add??

Milwaukee Brewers
Acquisitions
Zack Greinke
Shaun Marcum
Takashi Saito
Yuniesky Betancourt
Wil Nieves

Departures
Trevor Hoffman
Dave Bush
Chris Capuano
Todd Coffey
Doug Davis
Alcides Escobar

Last year, the Brewers finished a lowly 77-85, good enough for 3rd place, 14 games behind the Reds. During the offseason, they've gone out and replaced a couple of their middling starting pitchers with Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, two legitimate candidates to be aces behind an already solid Yovani Gallardo. With those three starters on top of Ryan Braun and (barring a slow start and then a deadline trade, a full season of) Prince Fielder, Milwaukee has a solid chance of competing all summer long. Before we all jump on the bandwagon of +350 to win the division, lets have a look at the rest of the roster that looks something like this:
C - Jonathan Lucroy :R
1B - Prince Fielder :L
2B - Ricky Weeks :R
SS - Yuniesky Betancourt :R
3B - Casey McGehee :R
LF - Ryan Braun :R
CF - Carlos Gomez :R
RF - Corey Hart :R

sp1 - Zack Greinke :R
sp2 - Yovani Gallardo :R
sp3 - Shaun Marcum :R
sp4 - Randy Wolf :L
sp5 - Chris Narveson :L
cl - John Axford :R

At a glance:
- Looking at their lineup, you see a heck of a lot of righties with Prince being the lone lefty in the heart of the order. Considering Prince's .407 wOBA for his career, I think he should be enough to force the opposing manager to bring in a LHP in most scenarios and perhaps cause some havoc when a starter gets knocked out early.
- The big problem this year is going to be the lack of defense to help the new pitchers. Outside of Gomez in CF and Weeks at 2B, this team lacks any defensive prowess on the field. However, I really believe that the Brewers rotation can compete with the Cardinals as the best in the division and be just a notch below the Phillies for best in the NL.

As far as how this season will pan out, I fully expect the Brew Crew to get up and over the .500 mark this year barring some sort of injury (Rickie Weeks seems to be the only real injury concern on the roster). The offense was already 2nd in the NL in wOBA last year and Betancourt should be a bit of an upgrade over last year's production from Escobar. Braun and Fielder were both a touch below their career wOBA while Weeks finally put together a full season and put up the numbers everyone thought he was capable of. Expect to see Milwaukee as another top 3 offensive team this year and have a top 5 pitching staff. This team should definitely be there to compete for the division all year long with a solid offense, starting staff, and Saito/Axford ending games. I'm looking at something along the lines of 86-90 wins for this team.

If you're interested in learning about wOBA or another stat, I recommend visiting the new Fangraphs Library.

thericker7 · 02-01-11, 05:26 PM

Completely agree that the Brewers will have a great chance of winning the Central. If not, I think they will be right up there in contention for the Wild Card.

Willie Bee · 02-02-11, 09:26 AM

Can see anyone but Houston and Pittsburgh winning this division. Will start running my simulations in the next day or two and something from those sims might make me lean strongly to one of the other four clubs. But right now, this division is wide open except for those two clubs.

Mr. Jones · 02-02-11, 09:56 AM

Good info. Nice thread. Thanks for putting this up. The Reds look like they will be tough to beat IMO.

EXhoosier10 · 02-02-11, 10:30 AM

Willie, do you know why it is that I'm not able to edit any of my posts? We've got 2+ feet of snow on our driveway here north of Chicago and I'm not ready to go shovel, so I'm trying to get some more summaries done, but can't edit any of my 3 posts so far. Do you happen toknow why?

Willie Bee · 02-02-11, 11:58 AM

There's a max time (about 24 hours) after which posts can't be edited. Assuming you want to add to the links list in the first post of this thread, so PM me what you have and I'll giterdone later this afternoon for you.

EXhoosier10 · 02-02-11, 04:49 PM

Pittsburgh Pirates
Acquisitions
Kevin Correia
Matt Diaz
Scott Olsen
Lyle Overbay
Garrett Atkins (Minor League Contract)
Joe Biemel (MLC)
Josh Fields (MLC)
Andy Marte (MLC)

Departures
Brendan Donnelly
Zach Duke
Andy Laroche
Lastings Milledge
Delwyn Young

Wow, what a lot of useless names moving around this Pirates roster. The Buccos were all kinds of bad last year. The were last in the majors in WAR and Fielding, 3rd to last in wOBA and 2nd to last in BB% in the NL. Their pitching staff was last in WAR, last in xFIP and a much improved second to last in FIP. All this led to a league worst 57-105 record, and a solid 34 games behind the Reds. The good thing for the Pirates though is that you have to go back to the '04 Diamondbacks to find a team that lost more than 105 games, so really, things can only go up from here. In all seriousness though, things should improve for this years Buccos.

C - Chris Snyder :R
1B - Lyle Overbay :L
2B - Neil Walker :S
SS - Ronny Cedeño :R
3B - Pedro Alvarez :L
LF - Jose Tabata :R
CF - Andrew McCutchen :R
RF - Garrett Jones :L / Matt Diaz :R

sp1 - Paul Maholm :L
sp2 - Ross Ohlendorf :R
sp3 - James McDonald :R
sp4 - Kevin Correia :R
sp5 - Charlie Morton :R / Scott Olsen :L
cl - Joel Hanrahan :R

We'll go with a breakdown of their starters:

Doumit was the worst rated catcher last year while Snyder was #10. Overbay effectively replaces Lastings Milledge and Delwyn Young from last year, which should simply be an upgrade considering his 3 year average wOBA is about .345. Walker, Alvarez, Tabata, McCutchen, and Jones are all young and have proven that they can hack it in the majors, and, as a whole, should see a general improvement. As a Cubs fan, I've seen Cedeño play enough to know that he is never going to get that much better. In general, the offense should improve, but a lot of this hinges on young players. McCutchen is a star and should anchor the team, while Alvarez has a very high ceiling. If Alvarez has a good season, expect this offense to push the middle of the pack in the NL.

As far as the pitching goes, I don't see much hope. Correia isn't much of an upgrade over Zach Duke, and although I don't think he's as bad as his 5.40 ERA last year, I don't think he's much better than a 4.5 outside of Petco. Maholm hasn't changed much over his career and we can probably plug him in as a 4.5 ERA as well. Likewise with Ohlendorf. I think Charlie Morton gets the job as 5th starter because he's out of options. I don't have much to say about James McDonald because I don't think I've ever actually seen him play. From looking at his stats though, he is a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher (46% last year) and was very lucky last year with a 4.3% HR/FB. Probably a little too early to tell, but xFIP had him at 4.17 last year. Maybe some upside at a 3.75 ERA if he can actually control his HR rate? I think that's his ceiling though.

NL Central schedule looks something like this:
9-9 (Home/Away) vs. Houston, 9-6 vs. Reds, 9-7 vs. Cards, 7-9 vs. Cubs, 6-9 vs. Brewers

To sum it up, the pitching staff lacks anything resembling an ace. I don't see one pitcher who can take the hill and give his team a solid chance to end a losing streak. On a more positive note, they do have a decent offense with a very good mix of strong left and right handed hitters, and might be able to upset some chalky picks, but don't get your hopes too high with this team. Expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 65-70 wins for these guys.

EXhoosier10 · 02-07-11, 02:28 PM

Sorry for the delay, everybody. My internet went out after the big snowstorm here in Chicago and then my router died on top of that, so I haven't had time to do my research for the remaining three teams. With spring training a mere two weeks away, I'm looking to finish the remaining teams this week and then make a list of team notes that relate to betting the following week. I hope everyone enjoyed the Superbowl and is getting excited for pitchers and catchers!

Numenor80 · 02-07-11, 06:28 PM

I think the Cubs shock a lot of people this year. But I'm a Cubs homer!

Terrapin Station · 02-07-11, 10:59 PM

Originally posted by Willie Bee

First, one of the best places to find info on the Astros is www.astrosdaily.com

I've been following that team since 1962, so I'll pop in once Spring Training goes to offer what I know, or at least what I think I know

For starters, I'll just offer up a warning to all futures bettors regardless of teams they're looking at, as well as get specific about the NL Central on the issue of THE SCHEDULE. If you haven't disected the schedule of a team you're making a futures wager on, you're failing in your research. Schedules across the league are very, very unlevel. For example, the LA Angels will play each team in the AL West 19 times this year, with 10 games against each at home in Anaheim and just 9 versus each on the road. For the Texas Rangers, the opposite is true (9 home games vs. each division foe, 10 road games).

The Cubs have a 9-6 advantage vs. Houston, 9-7 vs. Pittsburgh, 6-9 disadvantage vs. St. Louis and 7-9 vs. Milwaukee. They split with the Reds, 9-9.

Cincinnati: 9-6 (Home-Away) vs. Houston, 9-7 vs. Milwaukee, 6-9 vs. Pittsburgh, 6-9 vs. St. Louis.

Houston: splits 9-9 with Pittsburgh, 6-9 vs. Cubs and Reds, 9-6 vs. Brewers and Cardinals.

Milwaukee: splits 9-9 with St. Louis, 9-7 vs. Cubs, 9-6 vs. Pirates, 6-9 vs. Astros, 7-9 vs. Reds.

Pittsburgh: splits 9-9 with Houston, 9-6 vs. Reds, 9-7 vs. Cards, 7-9 vs. Cubs, 6-9 vs. Brewers.

St. Louis: splits 9-9 with Brew Crew; 9-6 vs. Cubs, 9-6 vs. Reds, 6-9 vs. Astros, 7-9 vs. Pirates.

Great info here, specifically the schedule comment. A very common, and easy, thing to overlook.

mebaran · 02-08-11, 02:42 AM

Was looking what you said about the Cubs and I couldn't agree more. I do think that Tyler Colvin will surprise some people this year though. In my eyes he is a legitimate threat to hit 25 homers and steal 20 bases (we'll see if they try grabbing a few more bags this year, as they couldn't steal a thing last year)

Willie Bee · 02-08-11, 09:40 AM

Originally posted by Terrapin Station

Great info here, specifically the schedule comment. A very common, and easy, thing to overlook.

Yeah, it amazes me that so many people really don't know about the scheduling imbalance from division to division and even within the two skewed divisions (NL Central, AL West). Inputting the schedule is one of the most time-consuming tasks for me prior to running my simulations, but I feel it's worth it. And like I said, if you're betting MLB futures -- either league/division winners or season win totals -- and you don't incorporate the schedule into your thought process, you're leaving yourself wide open for trouble.

EXhoosier10 · 02-08-11, 12:41 PM

St. Louis Cardinals
Acquisitions
Lance Berkman
Gerald Laird
Nick Punto
Brian Tallet
Ryan Theriot
Jim Edmonds

Departures
Brendan Ryan
Dennys Reyes
Brad Penny
Jeff Suppan
Aaron Miles

While the Brewers added to their rotation with a couple big name trades, the Cardinals added their own star by signing Lance Berkman to a team friendly 1yr / $8million contract. On top of Berkman, the Red Birds brought in Ryan Theriot and Nick Punto to shore up their infield positions. Last year’s Cardinals went 86-76 and finished 5 games back of the Reds. This year, with a few changes, they’re hoping to crack that 90 win plateau and take the division. They’ll try to win it with the following players:

C - Yadier Molina :R
1B - Albert Pujols:R
2B - Skip Schumaker :L
SS - Ryan Theriot :R
3B - David Freese :R
LF - Matt Holliday :R
CF - Colby Rasmus :L
RF - Lance Berkman :S

sp1 - Chris Carpenter :R
sp2 - Adam Wainwright :R
sp3 - Jaime Garcia :L
sp4 - Jake Westbrook :R
sp5 - Kyle Lohse :R
cl - Ryan Franklin :R

Last year, only Carpenter, Wainwright, and Garcia threw over 100 innings, and lucky for them all three of them had ERA’s under 3.25. Looking at Wainwright and Carpenter, there is very little reason to suggest anything above a 3.5 ERA for the 2011 season. Ya, Carpenter is 2 years removed from Tommy John surgery and will turn 36 in April, but he made 28 and 35 starts the last two years and there is little reason to expect anything different in the near future. With Garcia, he was shut down mid September after tossing 163 innings of 2.7 ERA ball. Besides the jump of 125 innings from 2009-2010, he also had an FIP of 3.41 and xFIP of 3.73. His WHIP of 1.32 was right at league average as was his K/9 and BB/9. It will be hard to imagine him posting another season under 3.50 with those kinds of stats. Last thought about the Cardinals pitching; they are all high contact, ground-ball inducing pitchers. With the subtraction of Ryan Ludwick and Brendan Ryan coupled with their replacements, Lance Berkman (hasn’t played OF since 2007) and Ryan Theriot, the defense behind these pitchers won’t be as good as last year. Because of that, I think it will be harder for the staff to maintain such low ERA’s.

To go along with 3 aces on the mound, the offense possesses a very talented group of players in the 3-4-5 spots in the lineup. Albert Pujols is the best hitter in the game. Matt Holliday is a top 5 outfielder and has produced over 5.5 WAR in four consecutive seasons. While simply ignoring last season isn’t a great idea, Lance Berkman went 9 consecutive seasons posting over 3 WAR. Last year however, he posted 2.1 WAR due to a very rough stretch in the Bronx. His HR/FB% was a measly 2.9% for the Yankees while he was at 15.9% for Houston. His LD% was the lowest of his career and his IFFB% was double that of the previous two seasons. Hitting in a much more potent lineup coupled with being back in the NL central, I expect Berkman to have another solid season producing over 2.5 WAR. I expect Rasmus to regress a bit considering his 32% K% as well as his .354 BABIP. He walks at a decent clip and the power looks real, so I don’t expect his wOBA to fall too much, but .340 seems more realistic than last year’s .366. With Molina, Freese, Theriot, and Schumaker, you’re looking at a very light hitting top/bottom of the order. If one of the big boppers goes down with a nagging injury (not that there are any immediate concerns for that, but freak injuries happen), this offense has a bit of a downside.

With the pitching and heart of the order as good as they are, expect the Cardinals to compete for most of the season. Unfortunately, after their stars, there is a huge dropoff. Unless the Cards can get one more above average player to come up and produce, I think the light hitting infield and back end of the rotation will ultimately hold this team back from winning it all. With 3-4 good teams in the division, maybe 91 wins will take the division again, but the Cards should fall just short of the 90 win plateau this year.

EXhoosier10 · 02-17-11, 09:24 PM

Interesting article regarding the NL Central schedule.

As usual, you were right WIllie. On top of just the NL Central being weighted a little unfairly for the Brew Crew, they also have to play the Big 3 from the AL East this year while also matched up for 6 rivalry games against Minnesota. The Cards get 6 against the lowly Royals and only play the Rays from the AL East. For those thinking about Brewers winning the NL Central, this is a definite negative "stat".

At +350 to win the division and +2800 to win the WS, maybe the better bet to make is on them winning the NL pennant or WS instead.

Any thoughts?

Willie Bee · 02-18-11, 12:27 PM

Updated the list of links, exhoosier. Let me know if you get more.

EXhoosier10 · 02-18-11, 01:18 PM

Thank you very much, kind sir.

EXhoosier10 · 03-02-11, 09:46 PM

I've come across lots of good links today. On the left are Fangraphs's team previews while on the right are Sports Illustrated's Health Reports for the upcoming season:
Cardinals & Injuries (Big name Red Lights: Lance Berkman and Jaime Garcia)
Pirates & Injuries (BnRL: Ross Ohlendorf)
Reds & Injuries (Scott Rolen, Ramon Hernandez, and Edgar Rentaria)
Brewers & Injuries (Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart)
Cubs & Injuries (Carlos Pena, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, and Kerry Wood)
Astros & Injuries (Carlos Lee, Bud Norris, Brett Myers, and J.A. Happ)

With all of the aging players on the Cubs' roster, they are going to need a lot of things to go right for them to compete all year. The rest of the division is fairly young with not very many big risks.

More to come as the season draws nearer. Less than a month away now!

Terrapin Station · 03-03-11, 12:15 AM

Great information here...

EXhoosier10 · 03-03-11, 07:10 PM

Thanks Terrapin. Hopefully focusing mainly on one division this year will lead to some good results

Terrapin Station · 03-04-11, 12:14 AM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

Thanks Terrapin. Hopefully focusing mainly on one division this year will lead to some good results

That's what I started doing last season. Focused a lot on the AL West, and the NL West too.

EXhoosier10 · 03-04-11, 10:29 AM

If you don't mind me picking your brain a bit, how many of those games did you actually watch? I get some Reds games and all the Cubs games on TV, but am planning on just doing a lot of reading every night to keep up on the small injuries and momentum of the teams. Do you think that's enough? Should I purchase MLB.TV? I'm guessing even if I do, I'll be blacked out of Milwaukee and St. Louis games. Any thoughts/suggestions?

the12thman · 03-04-11, 11:36 AM

bet on the Astros over 72 wins, they always overachieve, pitching staff has a chance to be very solid

pdprodigy · 03-04-11, 12:00 PM

I like the Rockies today over the Indians.

GimpedMaster · 03-04-11, 01:33 PM

I was so excited for the Cards on paper before spring training started... Now things aren't looking nearly as bright. I still think we have a shot at the division but it's going to be a real grind against a much improved NL Central.

EXhoosier10 · 03-04-11, 02:59 PM

I just realized that I never posted an analysis on the Reds or Astros. If you're dying for some insight on the Astros, follow this link to Rob Neyer's new blog and read about why I never mustered up any interest in writing about them. If you're looking for something on the Reds, well, you're going to have to wait a little bit longer.

Edit: Here is Rob's take on the Milwaukee Brewers

Shortstop · 03-06-11, 12:30 AM

Great info, thanks for sharing.

Let's Go Bucs!

mr.inpak · 03-06-11, 11:54 PM

like cinncinatti to win division at +270 at wagerchief

Terrapin Station · 03-07-11, 12:12 AM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

If you don't mind me picking your brain a bit, how many of those games did you actually watch? I get some Reds games and all the Cubs games on TV, but am planning on just doing a lot of reading every night to keep up on the small injuries and momentum of the teams. Do you think that's enough? Should I purchase MLB.TV? I'm guessing even if I do, I'll be blacked out of Milwaukee and St. Louis games. Any thoughts/suggestions?

I watch just about all of the Athletics games that are on tv, and a lot of the Giants ones as well. I also read heavily about the Padres and Dodgers as well. I would say 80% of my bets involve one of those four teams. I wouldn't worry too much about mlb.tv, especially if the Brewers and Cardinals games could potentially be blacked out.

EXhoosier10 · 03-08-11, 10:31 PM

Tough news for the Brewers today. Their new ace, Zack Greinke, will be out 4-6 weeks with a fractured rib. He sustained the injury before spring training began and has made two starts with the pain before an MRI revealed the hairline fracture.

What does that mean for the Brewers? Here's what the article says about their replacement starter,

The Brewers will not need a fifth starter until April 6, and then not again until April 16.

The problem is that the leading candidates are behind in their preparation for the season. Left-hander Manny Parra has been bothered by a bad back, right-hander Mark Rogers has yet to appear in a game because of a stiff shoulder and Amaury Rivas, the club's 2009 Minor League pitcher of the year, will miss a few more days because of an infected tooth.

Organizational veteran Tim Dillard, who surrendered two home runs Tuesday in two innings against the Dodgers, and prospect Wily Peralta are also candidates to make a start or two if necessary.

That means they will only need to use that replacement starter twice in the next 6 weeks. As long as the injury doesn't linger (and I'm assuming it won't since bones tend to be broken or not whereas a muscle/tendon injury can), this really only takes away maybe 1 win from the Crew and shouldn't have a huge impact on their season.

Gonad · 03-09-11, 02:24 AM

Reds fan, cashed 'em last season at 8-1... They have good value at +250 or above, this team is very deep... Miracles can happen when you bother to develop your farm system... That said, the Cubbies offer that "longshot"(5-1 or better) possibility... Simply ain't buyin' the Brewers, and we'll see how the Cards' starters hold up...

MatI · 03-09-11, 04:46 AM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

If you don't mind me picking your brain a bit, how many of those games did you actually watch? I get some Reds games and all the Cubs games on TV, but am planning on just doing a lot of reading every night to keep up on the small injuries and momentum of the teams. Do you think that's enough? Should I purchase MLB.TV? I'm guessing even if I do, I'll be blacked out of Milwaukee and St. Louis games. Any thoughts/suggestions?

Great thread. Will be following this. Go Cubbies!

I would highly recommend MLB.tv as a way to follow as many games as possible. But you will have the local games blacked out I believe. I am in Australia so don't have this problem.