Dexter's 2011 MLB Plays

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  • bhunter
    SBR Sharp
    • 12-05-09
    • 489

    #596
    Originally posted by Dexter
    lol....not yet!
    Well something that might change your luck is that i started fading your A4's - and my record over the last 3 weeks is awful, losing around $9,000 and wiping out 75% of my profit for the year.

    In fact it started yesterday where i faded the Welke A4, but luckily i took Under 9 so got a push whereas you got the win right at the end.

    Am tailing your A1, 2 & 3's though so might be a while before those rebound!

    PS only reason i'm fading the A4's is that i think linemakers are wise to the umpire factor with the lines being adjusted fractionally accordingly, and i think over a long stretch they will tend to even out close to 50%
    Comment
    • Dexter
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 12-24-08
      • 25829

      #597
      Originally posted by Dexter
      Monday 5/2: (8u) angels -110 (A1)
      Originally posted by Dexter
      (4u) under giants 7.5 (A4 - Darling)
      (2u) over braves 7.5_culbreth
      Comment
      • Dexter
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 12-24-08
        • 25829

        #598
        Originally posted by bhunter
        Well something that might change your luck is that i started fading your A4's - and my record over the last 3 weeks is awful, losing around $9,000 and wiping out 75% of my profit for the year.

        In fact it started yesterday where i faded the Welke A4, but luckily i took Under 9 so got a push whereas you got the win right at the end.

        Am tailing your A1, 2 & 3's though so might be a while before those rebound!

        PS only reason i'm fading the A4's is that i think linemakers are wise to the umpire factor with the lines being adjusted fractionally accordingly, and i think over a long stretch they will tend to even out close to 50%
        fair enough - just dont come here doing an endzone dance when you win and i lose...haha

        but you do realize the 7 umps i selected hit that high % for 2 years in a row? i couldnt pull the data (didnt look hard enough) for 2008 but perhaps these guys were trending the same way then.

        i have not seen anything fishy with the A4 lines....i actually make my own projected total each day and i havent noticed anything way off on the A4 games....there were plenty of umps who were great over guys in 2009 then they were under guys in 2010 (and vice versa)...i think looking at 2 years of data will give me the edge....
        Comment
        • Dexter
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 12-24-08
          • 25829

          #599
          thats a messed up start

          Clay Buchholz pitching:Maicer Izturis :Strike looking, Foul, Ball, Izturis singled to right, Izturis out at second.Bobby Abreu :Strike looking, Strike looking, Ball, Abreu singled to center.Howard Kendrick :Ball, Pickoff attempt, Kendrick singled to left, Abreu to second.Torii Hunter :Strike looking, Ball, Ball, Ball, Hunter grounded into double play third to first, Abreu out at third.
          Comment
          • Anthonyg7
            SBR MVP
            • 11-27-10
            • 1281

            #600
            Gl today Dex.. I'm on Cards ML.
            Comment
            • Dexter
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 12-24-08
              • 25829

              #601
              Originally posted by Anthonyg7
              Gl today Dex.. I'm on Cards ML.
              lohse has been filthy....RL or ML?
              Comment
              • Anthonyg7
                SBR MVP
                • 11-27-10
                • 1281

                #602
                Originally posted by Dexter
                lohse has been filthy....RL or ML?
                Took the ML. Volstad has a 2.14 Road Start Whip.
                Comment
                • Dexter
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 12-24-08
                  • 25829

                  #603
                  Tuesday 5/3:

                  (5u) under cards 8 (A4 - Layne)
                  Comment
                  • Anthonyg7
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-27-10
                    • 1281

                    #604
                    Originally posted by Anthonyg7
                    Took the ML. Volstad has a 2.14 Road Start Whip.
                    G Sanchez homered to left center, C Volstad, C Coghlan and H Ramirez scored. Ouch..
                    Comment
                    • Anthonyg7
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-27-10
                      • 1281

                      #605
                      Originally posted by Anthonyg7
                      G Sanchez homered to left center, C Volstad, C Coghlan and H Ramirez scored. Ouch..
                      Cards come out and respond.. entertaining game.

                      L Berkman homered to right, C Rasmus and M Holliday scored.
                      Comment
                      • Dexter
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 12-24-08
                        • 25829

                        #606
                        so much for that 3rd ranked bullpen...

                        redsox simply own the angels....
                        Comment
                        • Anthonyg7
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-27-10
                          • 1281

                          #607
                          Originally posted by Dexter
                          so much for that 3rd ranked bullpen... redsox simply own the angels....
                          that was brutal.. wow..
                          Comment
                          • Dexter
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 12-24-08
                            • 25829

                            #608
                            a2 is on over twins today...waiting as it looks like 8.5 could happen...
                            Comment
                            • Dexter
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 12-24-08
                              • 25829

                              #609
                              Originally posted by Dexter
                              a2 is on over twins today...waiting as it looks like 8.5 could happen...
                              Wind blowing OUT TO RIGHT 7-12

                              *good sign for morneau....he just hit his first homer the other day and its about time he starts reverting to his mean.
                              Comment
                              • bhunter
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 12-05-09
                                • 489

                                #610
                                Originally posted by Dexter
                                fair enough - just dont come here doing an endzone dance when you win and i lose...haha

                                but you do realize the 7 umps i selected hit that high % for 2 years in a row? i couldnt pull the data (didnt look hard enough) for 2008 but perhaps these guys were trending the same way then.

                                i have not seen anything fishy with the A4 lines....i actually make my own projected total each day and i havent noticed anything way off on the A4 games....there were plenty of umps who were great over guys in 2009 then they were under guys in 2010 (and vice versa)...i think looking at 2 years of data will give me the edge....
                                Told you your luck had changed! 0-1-1 on the fade when following you i could've been 2-0!

                                I hear what you're saying about the long term trends. I may end up switching sides and tailing you... but on the other hand you might want to bribe me not to given the way my luck is at the moment!
                                Comment
                                • Dexter
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 12-24-08
                                  • 25829

                                  #611
                                  Originally posted by bhunter
                                  Told you your luck had changed! 0-1-1 on the fade when following you i could've been 2-0!

                                  I hear what you're saying about the long term trends. I may end up switching sides and tailing you... but on the other hand you might want to bribe me not to given the way my luck is at the moment!
                                  you had 8 on the braves total?
                                  Comment
                                  • bhunter
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 12-05-09
                                    • 489

                                    #612
                                    When was the Braves total? Might've missed it.

                                    I've played under 9 on detroit/cleveland and over 7.5 on sf/wash

                                    Today florida/st louis over 8

                                    Is your A2 play confirmed, but just waiting for a line change? I'm in Europe and have to go to bed soon!
                                    Comment
                                    • d33m
                                      SBR Hustler
                                      • 03-18-11
                                      • 98

                                      #613
                                      Playing A2 tonight, MIN Over right?
                                      Comment
                                      • Dexter
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 12-24-08
                                        • 25829

                                        #614
                                        Originally posted by bhunter
                                        When was the Braves total? Might've missed it.

                                        I've played under 9 on detroit/cleveland and over 7.5 on sf/wash

                                        Today florida/st louis over 8

                                        Is your A2 play confirmed, but just waiting for a line change? I'm in Europe and have to go to bed soon!
                                        oh, you were talking about det/cle from sunday.

                                        yes, all the data lined up. just waiting for an 8.5....
                                        Comment
                                        • Dexter
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 12-24-08
                                          • 25829

                                          #615
                                          Originally posted by Dexter
                                          Tuesday 5/3:

                                          (5u) under cards 8 (A4 - Layne)
                                          (3.5u) under reds 8.5 (A4 - Miller)
                                          Comment
                                          • bhunter
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 12-05-09
                                            • 489

                                            #616
                                            Originally posted by Dexter
                                            (3.5u) under reds 8.5 (A4 - Miller)
                                            I took the over 8... so another winner for you!
                                            Comment
                                            • Dexter
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 12-24-08
                                              • 25829

                                              #617
                                              Originally posted by Dexter
                                              Tuesday 5/3: (5u) under cards 8 (A4 - Layne)
                                              Originally posted by Dexter
                                              (3.5u) under reds 8.5 (A4 - Miller)
                                              (5u) over royals 8.5 (A4 - Reynolds)
                                              Comment
                                              • Dexter
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 12-24-08
                                                • 25829

                                                #618
                                                Originally posted by bhunter
                                                I took the over 8... so another winner for you!
                                                did you buy .5 run? if so, whats ur price?
                                                Comment
                                                • bhunter
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 12-05-09
                                                  • 489

                                                  #619
                                                  Originally posted by Dexter
                                                  did you buy .5 run? if so, whats ur price?
                                                  I got the 8 at pinnacle for -113. Think the 8.5 was +105 there and +109 at matchbook.

                                                  You'd laugh if you'd seen how many bets i've lost recently that have been in OT (hockey) or extra innings in baseball. Hence taking the 8!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • bhunter
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 12-05-09
                                                    • 489

                                                    #620
                                                    And i got -118 & -120 for the under 9 in the balti/kansas game at unibet and centrebet which was way better than pinnacle (-128)
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Dexter
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 12-24-08
                                                      • 25829

                                                      #621
                                                      (8u) over whitesox 9 (A2)
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Dexter
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 12-24-08
                                                        • 25829

                                                        #622
                                                        Wednesday 5/4:

                                                        (5u) under reds 9 (A4 - Hoye)
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Dexter
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 12-24-08
                                                          • 25829

                                                          #623
                                                          Tue 5/3:

                                                          (4u) under a's 7.5 (A4 - Joyce)
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Dexter
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 12-24-08
                                                            • 25829

                                                            #624
                                                            nothing like having the over when a pitcher has a no hitter.....gonna get buried nicely tonight.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • d33m
                                                              SBR Hustler
                                                              • 03-18-11
                                                              • 98

                                                              #625
                                                              who would have known that 2 shitty pitchers would play like rock stars...oh well
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Dexter
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 12-24-08
                                                                • 25829

                                                                #626
                                                                i love how gullien bats dunn(160avg) 3rd...brilliant.

                                                                definitely fading liriano next game off all these pitches....hes not used to this.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Dexter
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 12-24-08
                                                                  • 25829

                                                                  #627
                                                                  Wed 5/4:

                                                                  (1u) under rays 8
                                                                  (1u) under a's 7
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • d33m
                                                                    SBR Hustler
                                                                    • 03-18-11
                                                                    • 98

                                                                    #628
                                                                    I think fading pitchers coming off a stellar performance is a great idea. Rarely do you see them pitch as well the next game. Let's keep an eye out for Liriano's next game.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Dexter
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 12-24-08
                                                                      • 25829

                                                                      #629
                                                                      can someone please go to MLB.com and post the umpires for the day games? thx.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • hogfan
                                                                        Restricted User
                                                                        • 03-29-11
                                                                        • 642

                                                                        #630
                                                                        Dex, tell me how and I can look them up for ya.
                                                                        Comment
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