Saint Andrew MLB Season Thread

St. Andrew · 03-25-08, 09:30 PM

Heads-up: my favorite team is the KC Royals and I will be charting every fart or whisper that comes out of Kauffman Stadium. A futures lock: the Royals will top 72 wins this year. I have already nailed that for the max $600. Why? In three words: Meche, Bannister and Greinke. In two more: Butler and Gordon. I will delight in playing the Royals as dogs during the first month or so of the season.

diogee · 03-25-08, 09:31 PM

Best of luck this season Andrew.

St. Andrew · 03-25-08, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by diogee

Best of luck this season Andrew.

Best of luck to all of us. I hope SBR will be a clearing-house for consistent ass-kicking the whole year. This is my first year here in bases, but the CBB forum was very helpful to me personally.

diogee · 03-25-08, 09:45 PM

My first year all around so this forum has been most helpful. Hopefully everyone makes the book pay for the rest of the year.

OLGC_Slayer · 03-25-08, 11:07 PM

Good luck Saint. I love bases too lets make some cash this year and kill the book bro.

hi-rez · 03-25-08, 11:10 PM

Best of luck, kill 'em

St. Andrew · 03-30-08, 03:37 PM

Sides: 0-1
Parlays: 0-0
Units: -1

March 31

The KC Royals at +175 vs Detroit is too valuable to pass up. I followed KC throughout the Spring, and the team played well and seemed genuinely excited and confident in their first year under new manager Trey Hillman (managed the 2006 Nippon Fighters to the Japanese World Series). They will be starting their ace Gil Meche, who didn't get alot of wins last year even though he pitched phenomenal. He got very little run support. Expect that to change this year, as the Royals acquired Jose Guillen from the Mariners, who will bat #3. Grudzielanek (2B) is also healthy, unlike early last year, and he is a horse.

NOTES:
-Verlander finished the spring with a 1-2 record and 5.85 ERA in six outings.

-Meche finished with a 3-2 record and 3.74 ERA in five games.

-Meche is 4-1 lifetime at Commercia Park, and he was the Opening Day starter last year when the Royals beat the Red Sox 7-1.

-Last year Verlander finished w/ a 3.66 ERA and 183 Ks. Meche was 3.67 with 156 Ks.

-Meche and Verlander are comparable pitchers, but Sporting News acknowledges that the Royals have the stronger bullpen than Detroit.

-The Royals got alot of run production in the Spring and it is now confirmed that Guillen (23 HR last year) will start for the Royals on Opening Day. Obviously Detroit has a very powerful line-up.

Bottom Line
+175 makes KC a Value Dog, as I think Meche and the more offensively-loaded Royals match up well against the Tigers. Hopefully they will pull the upset.

ROYALS +175

MeatMan73 · 03-30-08, 05:54 PM

Saint Andy- good luck, but I live in Detroit and the Tigs have whipped up on the Royals the past 2 years on a regular basis. Have you seen the Tigers battling lineup? Royals hitters do not compare. Wish you a prosperous '08 season, but betting against Detroit (at home)is risky business

St. Andrew · 03-30-08, 10:08 PM

Originally posted by MeatMan73

Saint Andy- good luck, but I live in Detroit and the Tigs have whipped up on the Royals the past 2 years on a regular basis. Have you seen the Tigers battling lineup? Royals hitters do not compare. Wish you a prosperous '08 season, but betting against Detroit (at home)is risky business

Over the last three seasons, Detroit is 10-8 vs the Royals at Detroit. I know this play is risky, but I think there is value in +175. If it was even money I wouldn't play it.

KaidenDager · 03-30-08, 11:13 PM

If that line hits Intertops any time soon I too will be backing the Royals. They are less than a 50/50 to win here but getting nearly 2:1 has plenty of value in it to me.

GL to us St. Andrew

Still bitter about Davidson though

mofome · 03-31-08, 11:38 AM

GL andrew.

St. Andrew · 03-31-08, 04:54 PM

Originally posted by mofome

GL andrew.

Thanks!

Royals cashed at +175 !

OLGC_Slayer · 03-31-08, 04:55 PM

Well done St. Andy.
Always nice to get off to a good start.

St. Andrew · 03-31-08, 08:22 PM

Sides: 1-1
Parlays: 0-0
Overall: 1-1
Units: +.75

April 1
ML Parlay Padres (Young)/Mariners (Hernandez)
Risking 2 units to win 2.42
Mariners were 12-5 last year in Hernandez's home starts while Texas was 3-10 in Padilla's road starts. Padilla's road ERA last year was 8.04 in 13 games. Hernandez's home ERA was 3.64. Seattle has the better pen and more power. They are a great home team while Texas is horrible on the road (28-53 last year). Game is a mismatch.

Chris Young's home ERA last year was 1.69. I make it a habit to play him at home. Backe is a good young pitcher, but Young is a demonic when he is healthy (as he is now). Padres have the better bullpen w/Hoffman and had great home record last year compared to Houston's road record.

St. Andrew · 03-31-08, 08:58 PM

Added Play March 31
San Diego/Houston Under 7
Risking two units to win 1.50

MeatMan73 · 03-31-08, 09:49 PM

congrats St.Andrew, obviously I was wrong on the KC pick. My Tigs go down in front of 45,000 crazy fans. KC hung in there and won it in the end. Tigers stranded runners like crazy, seemingly every inning: no clutch hit to put the Royals away. Nunez looked tough closing. Best wishes

St. Andrew · 04-01-08, 12:12 AM

Sides: 1-1
Parlays: 0-0
Totals: 1-0
Overall: 2-1
Units: +2.25

St. Andrew · 04-01-08, 11:16 AM

April 1

CANCELLING: ML Parlay Seattle/Padres
I still think this is a good play, but I found one I like even more and I only want to do one play today.

San Diego (Young)/Houston (Backe) UNDER 7.5
Holy cow, do I love this play! Both of these teams are very offensively challenged and San Diego's ballpark is like hitting into the Grand Canyon. Chris Young ERA at home LY was 1.69and he fanned well over 200 last year, mostly at home. Backe was 2-1 vs Padres last year with an ERA of 2.45. The over was 0-3 in these games. I expect tonight's game to be low-scoring just like we saw last night. 11 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons.

St. Andrew · 04-01-08, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by St. Andrew

April 1

CANCELLING: ML Parlay Seattle/Padres
I still think this is a good play, but I found one I like even more and I only want to do one play today.

San Diego (Young)/Houston (Backe) UNDER 7.5
Holy cow, do I love this play! Both of these teams are very offensively challenged and San Diego's ballpark is like hitting into the Grand Canyon. Chris Young ERA at home LY was 1.69and he fanned well over 200 last year, mostly at home. Backe was 2-1 vs Padres last year with an ERA of 2.45. The over was 0-3 in these games. I expect tonight's game to be low-scoring just like we saw last night. 11 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons.

$220 to win $183.83. I'm not using the term "units" anymore because my bets are always minimum $100. Why bother?

St. Andrew · 04-01-08, 10:24 PM

April 2

Another day, another bogus line in favor of the Royals.

The old-timer Kenny Rogers is fetching -185 against one of the best new pitchers in baseball, Brian Bannister. Bannister finished 2007 12-9 with 3.87 ERA. Last year Bannister was 2-1 vs Detroit with 2.55 ERA. The guy is not a power pitcher, but he will get guys out on the ground all game long. Bannister had a great Spring too, looked very sharp. Rogers faced the Royals twice last year and lost both games. He started his first game in 1989 and has had tons of surgeries. He said yesterday that nothing in his body "feels right." He finished 2007 3-4 with 4.43 ERA.

On Opening Day the Royals bullpen looked crisp in the win, with Nunez and Soria in lock-down mode. Detroit's line-up is frightful, but the Royals' ain't bad either, especially with the way Grudzialanek (finally healthy this year) played in the first game (4 for 4). I like the scrappy Royals' chances in this matchup, I put it at 50-50, therbey making +165 look absolutely terrific. Detroit -185 is a total joke designed for dumb-ass general public who is starry-eyed over Detroit's line-up. Don't forget: Detroit is currently without Granderson and Zumaya.

Royals again![/SIZE][/FONT]

ROYALS +165

St. Andrew · 04-01-08, 10:28 PM

Originally posted by St. Andrew

[April 2]

Another day, another bogus line in favor of the Royals. The old-timer Kenny Rogers is fetching -185 against one of the best new pitchers in baseball, Brian Bannister. Bannister finished 2007 12-9 with 3.87 ERA. Last year Bannister was 2-1 vs Detroit with 2.55 ERA. The guy is not a power pitcher, but he will get guys out on the ground all game long. Bannister had a great Spring too, looked very sharp. Rogers faced the Royals twice last year and lost both games. He started his first game in 1989 and has had tons of surgeries. He said yesterday that nothing in his body "feels right." He finished 2007 3-4 with 4.43 ERA.

On Opening Day the Royals bullpen looked crisp in the win, with Nunez and Soria in lock-down mode. Detroit's line-up is frightful, but the Royals' ain't bad either, especially with the way Grudzialanek (finally healthy this year) played in the first game (4 for 4). I like the scrappy Royals' chances in this matchup, I put it at 50-50, therbey making +165 look absolutely terrific. Detroit -185 is a total joke designed for dumb-ass general public who is starry-eyed over Detroit's line-up. Don't forget: Detroit is currently without Granderson and Zumaya.

Royals again!

ROYALS +165

Risking $105 to win $170

St. Andrew · 04-02-08, 12:01 AM

Sides: 1-1
Parlays: 0-0
Totals: 2-0
Overall: 3-1
Units: +$409

OLGC_Slayer · 04-02-08, 01:25 AM

Nice going so far Saint.

OLGC_Slayer · 04-02-08, 01:26 AM

I like your moxy. Rogers has gotta get shelled at some point, it may as well be tomorrow. The Royals bullpen scares the crap outta me though. Good luck.

imgv94 · 04-02-08, 03:54 AM

Originally posted by St. Andrew

Detroit -185 is a total joke designed for dumb-ass general public who is starry-eyed over Detroit's line-up.

thats me..

hi-rez · 04-02-08, 02:40 PM

Followed you and put a bill on the Royals, very nice!

MeatMan73 · 04-02-08, 03:18 PM

St Andrew- send me a private msg and I have a solid tip for you in tomorrow's KC game

The_Kid · 04-02-08, 04:31 PM

Nice St. Andrew.

Bannister was lights out!

Followed you on that pick.

imgv94 · 04-02-08, 06:03 PM

Superb job Andrew.. I didn't like my chances as much after reading your writeup..

Meatman, please share whatever you have with the group here.

MeatMan73 · 04-02-08, 06:38 PM

Take the run total OVER for the first 5 innings in the KC-DET game tomorrow.

St. Andrew · 04-02-08, 09:28 PM

Sides: 2-1
Parlays: 0-0
Totals: 2-0
Overall: 4-1
Units: +$579

MeatMan73 · 04-02-08, 10:31 PM

Whatcha like tomorrow St Andrew?

St. Andrew · 04-02-08, 10:57 PM

Originally posted by MeatMan73

Whatcha like tomorrow St Andrew?

Nothing really. Not sure if I'm playing anything. I'm not playing the Royals/Tigers run total over first 5 innings tomorrow cause it means I'd have to bet against Greinke. I won't bet against the Royals in any fashion.

St. Andrew · 04-03-08, 12:51 AM

April 3

St Louis is 8-4 at home against the Rockies over the last three years (12-7 overall). Last year Colorado was a sub-.500 road team and they will have to prove to me that they will be any better on the road this year. They didn't on April 2. The Cards teed-off against a good pitcher in Cook, and Ankiel had three hits.

-Cards pitcher THOMPSON is 1-0 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 2.19 and a WHIP of 1.298. The Cards were 2-0 in these games.
-Ubaldo Jimenez has no history against the Cards, but in his last two Spring games he hit 4 batters, gave up two home runs and allowed 5 runs in 4 innings in his final start.

I give the Cards a 55-45 edge in this game, so even money looks good to me.

CARDINALS ML (EVEN)