What I've learned in my first year of baseball betting

ExposingLines247 · 09-08-10, 04:05 PM

just a long grind with many ups and downs, keep your emotions in check and your mgmt of course. After studying all summer you feel distracted like too much else going on (ie other sports) come september so if you dont live and die by baseball i suggest pumping the brakes and just taking a game here and there. The commitment can be overwhelming at times

rkelly110 · 09-08-10, 04:41 PM

What Lyon said, fade the public. I use SBR's MLB odds and fading the public ( lately) has been money.

Yesterdays O/U's 60% were won fading. RL's 67% won fading. ML's were 50% fading.

Foggy · 09-08-10, 04:46 PM

Also my first season betting baseball. I've been up and down all year. Pretty much up and down from day to day. The last 2 weeks I've switched strategies and I'm doing sooo good. I'm pretty much betting only RRL's. Last night for instance I was 3 wins and 4 losses for huge profit. I hate to post picks cause they'll probably lose but tonight so far I got: Boston +240, Tigers +235, Marlins +335(best record in baseball vs Lefties), Pirates +265, & Wozniaki wins 2-1 +424. If out of these 5 picks only the Marlins win(by 2), I break even. 2 wins and I'm wayy up.

D3 Mighty Ducks · 09-08-10, 04:47 PM

How I run my year long betting "system" if thats what you call it I consider baseball my off-season from NFL and NHL, my bread and butter.

Theres so many freakin games going on throughout the summer its nearly impossible to know whats happen in every game. To add to that I must say baseball is really really boring sport overall to watch live, tv, gamecast etc. That may not be true to some other but up here in Toronto people will actually rather watch paint dry on a wall. I build my bankroll a bit this summer winnings some baseball bets and losing others but being in the black is a job well done for me. Tailed the right people on here won some decent money on my "off-season" now on to NHL and NFL where I can hopefully continue building it.

BeatingBaseball · 09-08-10, 06:30 PM

Nice thread, NoCoin

You started a good thread here, No.

lyon804 made a great point re grinding it out against the number in MLB - beating the closing number is big. I think you can hold your own knowing little about baseball, not trying to pick the winner but being a good gambler and playing against the number. But I think there's an added edge in recognizing +EV from a fundamental baseball perspective - and for that you have to know the game.

I agree with you on Totals. I rarely bet them and when I do it's almost always UNDERS when the pitching is right and even then only for FirstFive.

I don't agree at all re betting a limited number of games. If you follow the game on a daily bassis and are making +EV plays - the more the better. Even if your edge on a play is small - it's a long term plus to put it in the mix. It also smooths out the variance. The hard part is, of course, staying accurate in your assessment of the EV and being honest with yourself about it.

The comments on the streak thing are also valid. You can't fight them. And you have to be honest with yourself about when you are fighting something you shouldn't be fighting. It's the same when you ride streaks - you have to be honest with yourself about when the music stops.

I would be careful about drawing conclusions re avoiding things like day games or September baseball based on one year. It's only natural to see patterns - but a season is only a snapshot and you can come away with the easy wrong answer.

Like all sports betting - there's two sides to it - the baseball side and the gambling side - and you need both to be successful. If you're not a good fundamental gambler you are doomed in baseball.

curious · 09-08-10, 08:32 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

If you want to make that argument when the O's are beating some mediocre team with nothing to play for this late in the season, fine.

Winning 3 in a row in the Bronx is an embarrassment to the men in pinstripes.

Baltimore is playing well, without a doubt, but they aren't that good of a team.

Mediocre teams with nothing to play for? Are you retarded or just plain stupid? The only team in this list that doesn't have a shot at the playoffs is the Indians.

So I guess their starting pitching going from 5 runs a game to 3.5 runs a game is a fluke? The Orioles are playing good baseball.

8/3/2010 Angels W
8/4/2010 Angels W
8/5/2010 Angels W
8/6/2010 White Sox W
8/7/2010 White Sox L
8/8/2010 White Sox W
8/9/2010 White Sox W
8/10/2010 Indians W
8/11/2010 Indians W
8/12/2010 Indians L
8/13/2010 Rays W
8/14/2010 Rays L
8/15/2010 Rays L
8/16/2010 Mariners W
8/17/2010 Mariners L
8/18/2010 Mariners L
8/19/2010 Rangers W
8/20/2010 Rangers L
8/21/2010 Rangers W
8/22/2010 Rangers L
8/24/2010 White Sox L
8/25/2010 White Sox W
8/26/2010 White Sox L
8/27/2010 Angels W
8/28/2010 Angels W
8/29/2010 Angels W
8/31/2010 Red Sox W
9/1/2010 Red Sox L
9/2/2010 Red Sox L
9/3/2010 Rays L
9/4/2010 Rays W
9/5/2010 Rays W
9/6/2010 Yankees W
9/7/2010 Yankees W

mitote · 09-09-10, 02:11 AM

I'm having my best year ever betting baseball! All I do is fade the newbs! So my bets are almost always unders and dogs! Because the newbs don't like to bet these! God I'm glad I found this forum!

Sawyer · 09-09-10, 02:41 AM

Baseball is a different sport. Unlike other sports, public like to hammer UNDER as well (specially when two hot pitchers meet each other). Majority of my bets are UNDERS in other sports but in baseball, I think Overs are easier to spot/hit since Over Range is larger then Under.

Goat Milk · 09-09-10, 02:46 AM

Lyon has some good information here about how to be a successful long term gambler. However Lyon, I don't think NC has the bankroll to be embarking on this voyage. You will take a lot of losses with Lyons strategy but you will also make profits over the course of a few years, but this is a strategy that takes patience and a larger bankroll to work with.

I can see how difficult of a sport baseball is to gamble on, I could never be successful at it. There are certain sports where you should solely be picking based on you think who will win, such as Tennis in Grand Slams. Just because Soderling was +350 (closing) today and I had the chance to get him at +370 at one point over Federer, doesn't mean I will take that bet, because it is a losing bet and I have enough knowledge of the game to know that.

The NBA market is another tough market but you should limit your games during the regular season. Again in the playoffs, it is a different animal. I'm not going to take the Celtics in game 7 on the ML EVEN if I can beat the closer because I know for a fact they will not win that game.

LIVE in game bets in the NBA are the most profitable if you understand the game. These lines change drastically throughout the course of a game and you need to have a solid strategy when betting LIVE in the NBA. It is not about beating the closing number- if OKC ML is +120 before tip and goes up to +180 after the first quarter, that doesn't mean I should hop on it because I can beat the closing number. Because that number could go up to +270 after another 3 minutes into the 2nd quarter, and then you made a bad bet. Its all about reading the game.

The most important part of live in game bets during the NBA is player rotations. The Lakers are beating OKC after the 1st quarter in OKC, 25-20. Lets say OKC was -3 before tip. After the first quarter OKC is +1 for the game lets say. Now it might not be wise to sit on this line once you see the matchups. Bryant sits out at the beginning of the 2nd quarter and Bynum is also usually out of the game at this point as is fisher. With the home crowd and the energy of the OKC bench, (of course look at who is on the court first) then there is value in OKC +1. But just because you are beating the closing number of -3 with a live in game bet doesn't mean you will beat the market long term--otherwise everyone would just wait and make live in game bets with numbers that will surely beat the closer.

Goat Milk · 09-09-10, 02:55 AM

Also I would like to add that the REAL sharps pound lines early that they feel move quickly against them/their pick- this goes hand in hand with Lyon's analysis of the market and beating the closing number. Late line movement is not nearly as valuable. You should have an accurate understanding of the market and betting trends though when you make your decision on whether or not you will beat the closer by taking a pick when it opens because there will be times when you make a wrong decision and the line moves against you. You have to try and limit the error% on your part the best that you can.

You will surly surprise us all one day NC with your wagers.

Pauulzcappin · 09-09-10, 02:57 AM

Goat I was reading some shit about betting quarters being very profitable.

I started gambling in the end of last year's reg season so I didn't got the real feel for it.

I did make some money off that on playoffs, I know there are good teams that are usually very good at first quarters especially.

Do you think this is a good market to invest on?

hawley · 09-09-10, 03:00 AM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Goat I was reading some shit about betting quarters being very profitable.

I started gambling in the end of last year's reg season so I didn't got the real feel for it.

I did make some money off that on playoffs, I know there are good teams that are usually very good at first quarters especially.

Do you think this is a good market to invest on?

i think first quarter lines are valuable, especially when there are trends that become obvious

GM may correct me but i think the lakers for example are a strong first quarter bet, the cavs last season were as well and potentially the heat this season?

i would think the rest of the game quarters would become harder to predict because the game can change throughout each quarter, with rotations changing and foul's etc influencing who is on the court

Pauulzcappin · 09-09-10, 03:01 AM

Lakers, Bucks, Heat will probly be next season.

hawley · 09-09-10, 03:06 AM

bucks?

on a side note im interested to see how they go this season, they made some good off season signings and hopefully the bogey man is back to 100%

Kraghen · 09-09-10, 03:46 AM

I'm in the green since I only bet on underdogs....

Gee · 09-09-10, 04:05 AM

Nocoin, agree. Feeling rather cheated after a good year. It's been tough recently.

Originally posted by rkelly110

What Lyon said, fade the public. I use SBR's MLB odds and fading the public ( lately) has been money.

Yesterdays O/U's 60% were won fading. RL's 67% won fading. ML's were 50% fading.

Be careful with sbr 5 dimes consensus. Today had As at 52% At least 5 other books had 70-80% on them. Similar thing with phillies game. It had marlins at 55% when all other books I checked had phillies at ave 70% that's a huge difference.

hawley · 09-09-10, 04:57 AM

Where else is it good to check what side the public is on?

I have mainly been using sbrodds

curious · 09-09-10, 08:51 AM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Goat I was reading some shit about betting quarters being very profitable.

I started gambling in the end of last year's reg season so I didn't got the real feel for it.

I did make some money off that on playoffs, I know there are good teams that are usually very good at first quarters especially.

Do you think this is a good market to invest on?

NBA quarters is the most exploitable bet in sports betting (IMHO). We ran a thread last year for NBA quarters and we killed the books. Find a book that offers in game quarters. Then look for matchups of % win for each quarter where one team is great and the other team blows. Also look for trends based on what happened in the previous quarter and the first half. Some teams bounce right back from being down in the previous quarter. Many teams stop playing as hard when they have a big lead.

curious · 09-09-10, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by hawley

i think first quarter lines are valuable, especially when there are trends that become obvious

GM may correct me but i think the lakers for example are a strong first quarter bet, the cavs last season were as well and potentially the heat this season?

i would think the rest of the game quarters would become harder to predict because the game can change throughout each quarter, with rotations changing and foul's etc influencing who is on the court

There are some web sites that give win% broken down by quarter. www.82games.com used to, not sure if they still do.

Finding matchups where one team is great in a given quarter playing a team that is lousy in that quarter is an exploitable edge.

Foggy · 09-09-10, 09:13 AM

"

HOT WINGS · 09-09-10, 09:18 AM

I am making 3 plays a day at most for rest of season and not going take anything over -130 today I think I am playing Padres as only play.

Dexter · 09-09-10, 09:21 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Now that I'm in the red after being up almost all season (has anyone made $$$ lately?), I look back and realize the majority of my big losses were during the day. I don't know how many times I've taken a team that's decided to be a total no-show when the sun is up.

Also, no totals ever again in baseball. Love them in football, love them in basketball, but baseball's a total roll of the dice and you'll never convince me otherwise.

Anyone else want to contribute/commiserate?

i think you know how i feel about totals - they have made my season.
but everyone is different - i hate nba totals, but will look into some ref trends for plays this season.

if i would eliminate my non autobet side plays, i would be up about 50 units