Me and my buddy got into this topic tonight at the bar... Who would you rather have as your starting ss Hanley Ramirez or Jose Reyes?
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hanley.Comment -
I disagree. Its a very hard topic but give me Jose Reyes pleaseComment -
3B machine? lets see. hanley hit 6 less triples, 17 more hrs, and 12 more doubles. hanley crushes reyes in extra base hits in a harder park to hit in, with Much less of a lineup around him. what makes reyes a better base runner? he had about about the same sb% and less runs. hanley also had a Much better ba.
so, same sb %, many more hits, more runs, many more extra base hits, and all in a worse lineup with over 40 less ABs.
hanley for me please.Comment -
Feel free to use their predictions also.
Mofome is clearly correct (Using the worst possible evidence) and 5 star bomb posted a lolz thread.
Oh, and here's 06.
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There is a ~20-27 run difference in fielding ability between the two, but if you take the fact that Hanley is younger and much more likely to improve on this facet of his game... You start to close the gap. (His EqA also raped Reyes last year, who was significantly worse than Jeter offensively last year)Comment -
mofome,
Just because he uses terrible analysis doesn't mean you need to fall into that trap as well. You mention runs which is a poor stat. The line-up thing is immaterial. Also stolen base numbers are typically around breakeven for most players. Even the best base stealers such as Raines or Henderson don't contribute a huge amount of run expectancy when they swipe a bag.
You do make a good point with your extra base hits including a park adjustment. Since HanRam knocks the cover off the ball compared to Reyes.Comment -
By perfect... You mean inferior? Since there is really no other way to describe his hitting compared to HanRam's. Especially if looking at last year's numbers.Comment -
i dont care much at all about 'runs', i just threw it out because 5 star mentioned that reyes was a better base runner. its not much of an indicator, but i think having more runs, in a lesser lineup, with less abs, helps to disprove his point a bit. maybe you dont, just tell me why. i want to know more and get better, not find myself in a discussion with someone who may have a ton to offer, but talks down to me every time we're in the same thread. you can obviously do that if you like, but it takes away from your ability to actually help and allow others to see your points. im looking over your prospectus stuff now and im enjoying it, it seems like it would be simple to just make your points, share your thoughts, and then leave it on me to either be bright enough to look into it, or ignorant enough to ignore it. you know your baseball, id love to be able to see things from your views and adjust over time and see what works best for me. ive spent my time on eog where ive never read anyone talk about these specific averages; just point me in the direction that you think is best, and i'll look. i want to win everything i do, i respect and crave knowledge about the game, its just hard to understand why you seem to take a shot with your replies so frequently. i love sarcasm more than most, but sometimes it can defeat production. i realize that you dont feel that you can gain from either of us, but i dont feel that way about myself, and i appreciate as many angles and as much info as i can get. ive got your link bookmarked.
ty.Comment -
if i was starting a team today, i would start it with Hanley. If i could pick any player in the league, Hanley would be my selection. Miguel cab wouldnt be far behind. i said last year that i would take the marlins 2b/3b combo over the yanks. two the most exciting talents in the league.
you're a winning baseball capper. i cant wait for the season and see what you bring in 08!Comment -
We've gone over this in a previous thread. BA/runs/doubles/etc are all really bad stats to compare players. OBP/SLG is a step up... Then you can move beyond that into things like EqA, wOBA, linear weights. To comprise the defensive side there UZR, Zone Ratings, the terrible stuff BP uses, and other things I'm sure I'm missing.
Then you can look at some summation stats win shares, win shares above bench, VORP, WARP1, WARP3, blah blah blah and it just gets bigger and bigger from there.
I'd suggest peeking around at baseballprospectus.com and hardballtimes.com and maybe picking up some of the books on the subject if you're really into it. You'll quickly understand that someone who is analyzing players based on BA and HRs really has no clue what they are talking about (Take a look at Joe Morgan's career stats. Why is a hitter that "poor" the greatest 2B ever?). They might lucksack their way into correct conclusions but frequently will be misled (Adam Dunn is a better hitter than Ichiro for example is something average joes whiff on since Ichiro bats like ~.320 and Dunn is a TTO hitter).
I wasn't specifically trying to talk down to you. Just that you essentially for better or worse lucksacked your analysis and focused on several points that are rather meaningless. Stolen bases are pretty meh for overall value for example. And that in a previous thread donjuan and I both mentioned these numbers and the sources. GL.Comment -
There are a few ways to answer the question. Hanley Ramirez definitely had the better year last year and Reyes is a better defender but we can't assume Reyes will hit like he did at the end of last season and we can't assume Ramirez will continue to kill the ball. Reyes still had a good year overall last year (he was an MVP candidate for a few months), but Ramirez might have been the best player in the National League... outside of his glove. Last year Reyes was in his 70th percentile of expected value (50% means you have an average year, 70% is a very good year) while Ramirez was well above 90% (he exploded). I know that if the Marlins offered a swap the Mets would take it in a heartbeat and if the Mets called an offered a swap the Marlins would tell the Mets to go blow themselves. They are both great young players with a load of potential Ramirez will be expected to have the better year. I would personally take Ramirez.Comment -
VORP, WARP1, WARP3, all of that is in prospectus? when capping a baseball game, do you spend much time on a particular game or do you have most of what you look at locked in already?
yeah, i know you and don spoke about a bit of this before, but when you've watched baseball for 20 years and thought one way, its hard to grasp something completely different right away. no one thinks their wrong, or they wouldnt think what they do, ya know. ive done decently in baseball over the years outside of 2006 where i was smashed, but really looking at these things is new to me. some of the acronyms are familiar to the eye, but the value of it all is still new. im in the process of trying to improve, thremp. i'll be in that process for a long while and i'll appreciate anyone who takes the time to offer anything they can. i believe that surrounding myself with winners and as much legit knowledge as possible is a start. knowing the top prospects in different organizations is fine, but it doesnt help me win. i would like to win as much as possible and i wont turn down the option to improve.Comment -
Hanley's the best SS in baseball and I don't think it's even close. He's a bit more raw than Reyes, but he's already the superior player and his upside is far greater than Reyes'. Reyes is better defensively - better, more accurate arm (although Ramirez has the potential to be a + defender... great arm, fantastic athlete, very good range. No doubt he's not in Reyes' league just yet, though) and he has a slight speed advantage over Ramirez, but other than that Hanley's a better player across the board. 29 HR for a guy in his second full season in the bigs, hit predominantly in the leadoff spot and played half his games in a pitcher-friendly park is impressive. 8th in the NL in OPS (.948... one-hundred pts. higher than Reyes' career high of .841), 8th in the league in slugging %, ahead of the likes of Aramis Ramirez, David Wright, and Beltran, all middle-of-the-order hitters, who, naturally, should produce more runs than a leadoff guy. Reyes is quite good, but his ceiling isn't as high as Hanley, who's already the significantly better player and will only get markedly better.
You could make a case Hanley Ramirez is already the best player in the NL.Comment -
Love Hanley to death, but listen you guys are jumping the gun a little on this one. I wanna see a little bit more, before i would say he is the best position player in the NL. I would say he has potential to be. Didn't a SS win a NL MVP this season?Comment -
LOL @ Rollins at SS. Thats almost about bad as that Canadian schmuck or Bartolo Colon or Catfish Hunter. All farces. MVP/CY/HOF... clowns.Comment -
Fair enough. I just happen to prefer the guy with more power, far better OPS stats and who can still swipe 40-50 bases a year, doing all of that while playing in a lineup with far less protection.Originally posted by 5 starComment -
Ill take Jose over Hanley i guess. I believe the mets are better with Jose then Hanley because of what their lineup calls for. Jose has been proven longer then Hanle. A lot of hanley's stats come at times when they are down 7-2 and he hits a solo HR. Or steals a base in a meaningless situation. Lets see what he does when he is in a pennat chase. Reyes was putting these numbers up while leading their division for 160 games of the year.
Thremp,
You have no clue what you are talking about if don't think J Roll deserved that MVP last season. Im not even getting into it.Comment -
Interesting observations. Going in reverse with these ideas, I guess we already know how Reyes will react when his team is in a pennant chase as the Mets' shortstop hit all of .205 last September and was a big part of New York's demise.
As for the timing of Ramirez' home runs in 2007:
#1 (Apr 6): Solo shot in bottom of third with his team trailing 3-1 at the time.
#2 (Apr 17): Solo shot of Roy Oswalt leading off the game.
#3 (Apr 21): Solo shot in top of 3rd with his team trailing 4-1 at the time.
#4 (Apr 30): Solo shot in top of 4th with his team up 6-0 at the time (count this one as meaningless).
#5 (May 15): Solo shot in top of 4th with his team trailing 1-0 at the time.
#6 (May 19): Solo shot in top of 3rd with his team leading 2-1 at the time.
#7 (May 23): Solo shot in bottom of 1st with his team trailing 2-0 at time.
#8 (Jun 1): Solo shot in top of 3rd with his team leading 1-0 at the time.
#9 (Jun 19): Two-run shot in top of 1st to give his team a 3-0 lead at the time.
#10 (Jun 22): Solo shot in bottom of 8th to break 4-4 tie, Marlins win game 5-4.
#11 (Jun 27): Solo shot in bottom of 7th with team trailing 5-3 before the homer.
#12 (Jul 3): Pinch hit, 2-run blast in top of 7th to tie the game 4-4.
#13 & #14 (Jul 6): Leads game off with homer to give Fish 1-0 lead, another solo shot in top of 7th when Florida trailed 5-3 before his blast, caps day with game winning RBI single in top of 10th to break 5-5 tie.
#15 (Jul 17): Two-run job in bottom of 5th with his team leading 1-0 at the time.
#16 (Jul 21): Three-run homer to cap an 8-run 8th-inning in an 11-1 Florida win (Marlins led 3-1 entering frame, call this a meaningless homer).
#17 (Jul 27): Solo shot in top of 6th to break a 6-6 tie.
#18 (Aug 4): Lead off homer in bottom of 1st inning to give Marlins 1-0 lead.
#19 (Aug 5): Solo shot in bottom of 3rd to tie the game 2-2.
#20 (Aug 7): Leadoff homer in top of 1st.
#21 (Aug 12): Leadoff homer in top of 1st.
#22 (Aug 16): Solo shot in bottom of 5th with Florida trailing 5-3 at the time.
#23 (Aug 18): Leadoff homer in bottom of 1st inning to put Florida ahead 1-0.
#24 (Sep 2): Leads off bottom of 7th with solo homer to break a 5-5 tie.
#25 (Sep 8): Leadoff homer in top of 1st.
#26 (Sep 9): Two run homer in top of 6th to ignite a 5-run Florida rally after entering frame down 8-0 (Call this one meaningless).
#27 & #28 (Sep 11): Leadoff homer in bottom of 1st to give Marlins 1-0 lead, then leads off bottom of 8th with solo homer with Florida up 11-8 at the time.
#29 (Sep 27): Solo shot in bottom of 5th with Florida leading 3-1 before his blast.Comment
