First the recap. Won again yesterday with the Reds on the run line as they beat the Astros in a 6-4 game. Was a lot closer than expected, but still a win. Onto Saturday's play. Looking at this Mets/Dodgers game and we got a real pitchers duel going on in this one folks. Mets start Michael Pelfrey and the Dodgers counter with Carlos Monasterios. Both right-handed pitchers, and both very poor in my opinion. Let's talk about Pelfrey first. Pretty good numbers, has a 10-5 record on the season with a 4.01 ERA, BUT there's a catch. The guys last win was almost exactly a month ago, June 25th when he beat the Twins 5-2. And then his rollcoaster ride began. 4 starts since that win he got a no decision, and 3 straight losses. Pelfrey has not made it past the 5th inning in his last 4 starts. Anybody catch his last start? You might have missed it since he couldn't get out of the 2nd inning against the Diamondbacks giving up 6 and throwing an astonishing 74 pitches before being pulled for good. In his last 3 starts he has given up 28 HITS and opponents are averaging 8.3 runs with a HUMONGOUS 15.30 ERA. Wow. How does this guy still have a job? Onto Carlos for the Dodgers. He is not a starter by trade he is a reliever/5th spot in rotation if need be. His last start was June 18th against the Red Sox and he also could not make it past the 5th inning giving up 8 hits and 6 runs and 2 dingers. He was then moved to the minors and was called back up on July 10th. In his last 3 major league starts he is 1-2 with a 9.24 ERA and all 3 of those games have gone over the total. We have Doug Edding calling the balls and strikes for today's game. Doug is not necessarily an over or under type of umpire. He is pretty consistent with 8 going over and 9 staying under out of his 17 games umped. However, he has umped 2 separate games for both of these pitchers and guess what? 59 RUNS. That's the combined total of runs scored in 4 games he has umped with Pelfrey on the mound and 2 games with Monasterios on the mound. Pretty wild huh? He actually umped Monasterios start not too long ago. June 7 against the Cardinals, final score: 12-4. I also found out that the over is 5-1-1 in Eddings' last 7 games behind home plate vs. New York. Now back to the pitchers. As I dug deeper into today's pitching match up, I found out Pelfrey is one miserable Day time pitcher. With 10 wins on the season only 2 have come with the sun shining. His numbers are just miserable compared to pitching at night. During the day he has an ERA of 5.71 compared to 3.28 at night. He has pitched a total of 34.2 innings during the day and has somehow managed to give up 49 hits. That's 1.5 hits per innings guys. As I dug deeper I found out this guy has given up more Runs than strikeouts when pitching during the day with 22 Earned Runs and only 19 Strikeouts. He has also walked 14 guys and given up 4 long balls in 5 day starts. Make under backers even more nervous, Opponents on base percentage is nearing .400 against this scrub during the day. He is giving up a lot of hits and inheriting a lot of base runners which is leading to massive runs being scored. Why should today be any different? Few more stats I found interesting that support my play today. Over is 5-2 in Mets last 7 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Over is 15-7-1 in Mets last 23 during game 3 of a series. Over is 31-15-6 in Mets last 52 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Over is 8-1 in Pelfreys last 9 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Vegas has installed them at +110 to +115 from what I see. So there you have it folks, my play for today is the Over of 8.5 runs in the Mets/Dodgers game. As always for good measure, here are a few more stats I found that help my over cause today. I wish you all the best of luck!
Over is 6-2 in Dodgers last 8 vs. National League East.
Over is 8-3-1 in Dodgers last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Over is 10-4 in Dodgers last 14 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 7-3 in Dodgers last 10 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
Over is 16-7-1 in Dodgers last 24 games as a favorite.
New York Mets / LA Dodgers Over 8½ (-115)
Risking 230 to Win 200
Over is 6-2 in Dodgers last 8 vs. National League East.
Over is 8-3-1 in Dodgers last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Over is 10-4 in Dodgers last 14 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 7-3 in Dodgers last 10 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
Over is 16-7-1 in Dodgers last 24 games as a favorite.
New York Mets / LA Dodgers Over 8½ (-115)
Risking 230 to Win 200
