Saturday Afternoon Total - Mets vs. Dodgers!

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  • Mr Windy City
    Restricted User
    • 12-27-09
    • 5018

    #1
    Saturday Afternoon Total - Mets vs. Dodgers!
    First the recap. Won again yesterday with the Reds on the run line as they beat the Astros in a 6-4 game. Was a lot closer than expected, but still a win. Onto Saturday's play. Looking at this Mets/Dodgers game and we got a real pitchers duel going on in this one folks. Mets start Michael Pelfrey and the Dodgers counter with Carlos Monasterios. Both right-handed pitchers, and both very poor in my opinion. Let's talk about Pelfrey first. Pretty good numbers, has a 10-5 record on the season with a 4.01 ERA, BUT there's a catch. The guys last win was almost exactly a month ago, June 25th when he beat the Twins 5-2. And then his rollcoaster ride began. 4 starts since that win he got a no decision, and 3 straight losses. Pelfrey has not made it past the 5th inning in his last 4 starts. Anybody catch his last start? You might have missed it since he couldn't get out of the 2nd inning against the Diamondbacks giving up 6 and throwing an astonishing 74 pitches before being pulled for good. In his last 3 starts he has given up 28 HITS and opponents are averaging 8.3 runs with a HUMONGOUS 15.30 ERA. Wow. How does this guy still have a job? Onto Carlos for the Dodgers. He is not a starter by trade he is a reliever/5th spot in rotation if need be. His last start was June 18th against the Red Sox and he also could not make it past the 5th inning giving up 8 hits and 6 runs and 2 dingers. He was then moved to the minors and was called back up on July 10th. In his last 3 major league starts he is 1-2 with a 9.24 ERA and all 3 of those games have gone over the total. We have Doug Edding calling the balls and strikes for today's game. Doug is not necessarily an over or under type of umpire. He is pretty consistent with 8 going over and 9 staying under out of his 17 games umped. However, he has umped 2 separate games for both of these pitchers and guess what? 59 RUNS. That's the combined total of runs scored in 4 games he has umped with Pelfrey on the mound and 2 games with Monasterios on the mound. Pretty wild huh? He actually umped Monasterios start not too long ago. June 7 against the Cardinals, final score: 12-4. I also found out that the over is 5-1-1 in Eddings' last 7 games behind home plate vs. New York. Now back to the pitchers. As I dug deeper into today's pitching match up, I found out Pelfrey is one miserable Day time pitcher. With 10 wins on the season only 2 have come with the sun shining. His numbers are just miserable compared to pitching at night. During the day he has an ERA of 5.71 compared to 3.28 at night. He has pitched a total of 34.2 innings during the day and has somehow managed to give up 49 hits. That's 1.5 hits per innings guys. As I dug deeper I found out this guy has given up more Runs than strikeouts when pitching during the day with 22 Earned Runs and only 19 Strikeouts. He has also walked 14 guys and given up 4 long balls in 5 day starts. Make under backers even more nervous, Opponents on base percentage is nearing .400 against this scrub during the day. He is giving up a lot of hits and inheriting a lot of base runners which is leading to massive runs being scored. Why should today be any different? Few more stats I found interesting that support my play today. Over is 5-2 in Mets last 7 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Over is 15-7-1 in Mets last 23 during game 3 of a series. Over is 31-15-6 in Mets last 52 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Over is 8-1 in Pelfreys last 9 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Vegas has installed them at +110 to +115 from what I see. So there you have it folks, my play for today is the Over of 8.5 runs in the Mets/Dodgers game. As always for good measure, here are a few more stats I found that help my over cause today. I wish you all the best of luck!

    Over is 6-2 in Dodgers last 8 vs. National League East.
    Over is 8-3-1 in Dodgers last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
    Over is 10-4 in Dodgers last 14 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
    Over is 7-3 in Dodgers last 10 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
    Over is 16-7-1 in Dodgers last 24 games as a favorite.


    New York Mets / LA Dodgers Over 8½ (-115)
    Risking 230 to Win 200
  • limitation
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 01-25-09
    • 747

    #2
    Nice pick. I am going with over 8.5 also on this game.

    Good Luck and let's make some $$$.
    Comment
    • Mr Windy City
      Restricted User
      • 12-27-09
      • 5018

      #3
      let's get it then limitation!

      Not playing this but I also lean to KC +1.5 against the Yanks tomorrow.
      Comment
      • darkenergy
        SBR MVP
        • 01-08-09
        • 4013

        #4
        Great info MWC.
        I'm glad you release your write up early in the morning, my coffee time much more enjoyable, LOL.

        GL Sir
        Comment
        • Footballtime
          SBR MVP
          • 01-20-10
          • 3229

          #5
          Good stuff Wimdy, been keeping an eye out for you and paco and a couple others, lets keep this going, TY FBT
          Comment
          • teenheat
            SBR Sharp
            • 11-08-09
            • 362

            #6
            sounds good, on it!
            Comment
            • BillAccpetor
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 02-07-09
              • 790

              #7
              Love the pick... BOL
              Comment
              • mcbogo
                SBR High Roller
                • 06-09-10
                • 192

                #8
                nice, Windy. gl
                Comment
                • BiffTFinancial
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 01-29-09
                  • 22670

                  #9
                  like it, great write-up, BOL.
                  Comment
                  • HoulihansTX
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 02-12-09
                    • 30566

                    #10
                    Comment
                    • WiseGrumpy
                      SBR MVP
                      • 04-30-10
                      • 3654

                      #11
                      Seems a little too easy to me ...
                      Comment
                      • superman613
                        Restricted User
                        • 06-15-10
                        • 906

                        #12
                        nice write up....might jump on board
                        Comment
                        • Lion4Life
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 03-30-10
                          • 797

                          #13
                          Nice write up, small play on the over for me. Good luck!
                          Comment
                          • LiarGame
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 02-05-10
                            • 565

                            #14
                            Thanks for the writeup you have me convinced to take the over.
                            Comment
                            • Ski powder
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 05-01-10
                              • 402

                              #15
                              Gr8 post
                              Comment
                              • whatsgood5
                                Restricted User
                                • 10-13-09
                                • 15359

                                #16
                                Ya oughta use some paragraphs my man. Looking at that big block of text is waaay to intimidating for me to attempt to read it...
                                Comment
                                • Mr Windy City
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 12-27-09
                                  • 5018

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by whatsgood5
                                  Ya oughta use some paragraphs my man. Looking at that big block of text is waaay to intimidating for me to attempt to read it...
                                  yea I can see what you are saying, but no one else has complained.

                                  Thanks to everyone else, appreciate the well wishes.

                                  Of course I passed on the over in the cubs game, and I passed on the Royals, damnit!
                                  Comment
                                  • whatsgood5
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 10-13-09
                                    • 15359

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Mr Windy City
                                    yea I can see what you are saying, but no one else has complained. Thanks to everyone else, appreciate the well wishes. Of course I passed on the over in the cubs game, and I passed on the Royals, damnit!
                                    My bad, forgot to add something along the lines of "GL though" at the end of my post there, haha I guess that kinda does make me look like a dick.

                                    It's just when I see so much words like that in a block, I feel like it'll take me a long-ass time to get through reading it...

                                    Good luck though, I don't have any action in this, so I'll be rooting for your over, along with a Dodgers victory to help out my Braves.
                                    Comment
                                    • thebestthereis
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 03-01-09
                                      • 11459

                                      #19
                                      write up and numbers look solid that is why i like the under, good luck!
                                      Comment
                                      • landers781
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-27-09
                                        • 4774

                                        #20
                                        i think either is expected to sit tday according to a source trying to confirm thou
                                        Comment
                                        • limitation
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 01-25-09
                                          • 747

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by landers781
                                          i think either is expected to sit tday according to a source trying to confirm thou
                                          That's correct. Either is out. I checked with roto line up. Paul is going to start in place of Either. Still I like over 8.5 on this game. Both pitchers are very inconsistent and it will be high scoring game most likely.
                                          Comment
                                          • Mr Windy City
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 12-27-09
                                            • 5018

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by whatsgood5

                                            My bad, forgot to add something along the lines of "GL though" at the end of my post there, haha I guess that kinda does make me look like a dick.

                                            It's just when I see so much words like that in a block, I feel like it'll take me a long-ass time to get through reading it...

                                            Good luck though, I don't have any action in this, so I'll be rooting for your over, along with a Dodgers victory to help out my Braves.
                                            Haha, it's fine man no big deal, I appreciate it.

                                            Originally posted by thebestthereis
                                            write up and numbers look solid that is why i like the under, good luck!
                                            what?

                                            Originally posted by landers781
                                            i think either is expected to sit tday according to a source trying to confirm thou
                                            huh?
                                            Comment
                                            • landers781
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 02-27-09
                                              • 4774

                                              #23
                                              sorry eithier! Just wanted to give you the fyi in case you werent aware. Good luck!
                                              Comment
                                              • masr
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 10-20-07
                                                • 4773

                                                #24
                                                I like it ,also on the ov 8.5
                                                Comment
                                                • Mr Windy City
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 12-27-09
                                                  • 5018

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by landers781
                                                  sorry eithier! Just wanted to give you the fyi in case you werent aware. Good luck!
                                                  Oh okay I couldn't understand what you were trying to say haha. Thanks gl to you as well

                                                  Originally posted by masr
                                                  I like it ,also on the ov 8.5
                                                  Comment
                                                  • dinaro7
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 12-06-09
                                                    • 888

                                                    #26
                                                    sounds like fun
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Mr Windy City
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 12-27-09
                                                      • 5018

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by dinaro7
                                                      sounds like fun
                                                      not sure what that means but ok.

                                                      Pelfrey getting drilled early. Already 3 hits and a run and not even out of the first yet
                                                      Comment
                                                      • No coincidences
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 01-18-10
                                                        • 76300

                                                        #28
                                                        Pelfrey lucky to get out of that first inning alive, but it's almost a blessing in disguise for this play. Sometimes, teams score 4-5 runs in the first inning and the scoring stops.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • absolute
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 07-01-10
                                                          • 1049

                                                          #29
                                                          hey WC, im on the over with you,but id feel more comfortable if eithier was in the line up
                                                          Comment
                                                          • LT Profits
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 10-27-06
                                                            • 90963

                                                            #30
                                                            This is my POD too, hopefully the pitchers don't become Cy Young.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • thebestthereis
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 03-01-09
                                                              • 11459

                                                              #31
                                                              you can write or dig up numbers from The Greek olympics until your head falls off, it you are on the side of the public you will always lose...in the long run. this is one of those times. i don't make this up, it is there for everyone to see.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • bballs84
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 11-11-09
                                                                • 5461

                                                                #32
                                                                Is the ball not carrying there today?? Why does everyone have WTP
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Mr Windy City
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 12-27-09
                                                                  • 5018

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by thebestthereis
                                                                  you can write or dig up numbers from The Greek olympics until your head falls off, it you are on the side of the public you will always lose...in the long run. this is one of those times. i don't make this up, it is there for everyone to see.
                                                                  what? Dig up numbers from the greek? I'm pretty consistent but funny you come in here and say you will always lose. Gimme a break. There has been 10 hits in this game, bases loaded with less than 2 outs and nobody can score. Don't come in my thread talking to me like I don't know anything buddy. Thanks
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Mr Windy City
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 12-27-09
                                                                    • 5018

                                                                    #34
                                                                    mets offense is horrid.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • absolute
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 07-01-10
                                                                      • 1049

                                                                      #35
                                                                      geezz, not even one run out of that

                                                                      im taking a hit on the totals today
                                                                      Comment
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