Sawyer's MLB Total Plays Thread

Sawyer · 06-01-10, 05:01 PM

GL Guys!

I'm expecting 3 RBI, 1 HR, 5 H performance by Dan Haren!

TheGambler · 06-01-10, 05:04 PM

Excellent info as always Sawyer!!

Sawyer · 06-01-10, 06:43 PM

1ST INNING PLAY ALERT!!

PICK: CWS VS TEX NO RUNS IN 1ST -115

GL Boys!

freddues · 06-01-10, 06:43 PM

Sawyer thanks for willingly sharing some of your strategies in Bases. I am currently looking at different stats (than bullpens) and it is working well. It is amazing how many relevant stats there are in Bases.

?

What is your opinion on who will win four games in the NBA final?

Thanks--GL

Sawyer · 06-01-10, 06:52 PM

My main focus is Totals, I'm not really deep in side betting but Purple and Gold will win it all imo

Sawyer · 06-01-10, 07:35 PM

Originally posted by Sawyer

PICK: CWS VS TEX NO RUNS IN 1ST -115

Stupid Harden.

Sawyer · 06-01-10, 07:36 PM

Wow, 6 runs already in Reds vs Cards game! Lookin' good!

HighVoltage · 06-01-10, 07:37 PM

They have to get at least one more. This one should be good, but you never know.

jose21_us · 06-01-10, 07:47 PM

3-3 marlins game. Just a few more...

jose21_us · 06-01-10, 08:13 PM

6-3 worse we can do is tie here.

Sawyer · 06-01-10, 08:29 PM

A run to be scored in 1st Inning Prop is 10-4 (excluding today) for TEA System "Over" Plays. Interesting, isn't it?

An early run in Dodgers vs D'Backs game will make the record 13-5!

You know my next 1st Inning Bet..

GL!

Sawyer · 06-01-10, 08:33 PM

Originally posted by Sawyer

TEA System Plays for 6/1

cle-det over8½ -110 lost
bos-oak under9 -105 pending
chc-pit under8½ -120 winner
mil-fla over9 -120 winner
stl-cin over8 +100 winner
ari-la over8 -115 pending

Go, Go, Go!!

og4667 · 06-01-10, 08:39 PM

interesting how your succes comes from just betting the totals. Congrats! What do you think about the Mariners/Twins total for tonight. Both pitchers ERA adds up to a shade under the total of 8 and Blackburn has fared well against Seattle while Vargas pitches well at home.

Sawyer · 06-01-10, 09:00 PM

Originally posted by og4667

interesting how your succes comes from just betting the totals. Congrats! What do you think about the Mariners/Twins total for tonight. Both pitchers ERA adds up to a shade under the total of 8 and Blackburn has fared well against Seattle while Vargas pitches well at home.

Over %52, Under %48 imo, No Play.

og4667 · 06-01-10, 09:34 PM

huh well thanks for the info.

Lion4Life · 06-01-10, 09:55 PM

Pauulzcappin · 06-01-10, 10:02 PM

Meh, the over on Dodgers game isn't looking good.

jose21_us · 06-01-10, 10:41 PM

not at all... We need some big innings quick

justaguy · 06-02-10, 01:27 AM

Sawyer I have a question or questions for you if you don't mind. I have been trying to hang around this forum and take in information from good handicappers in an effort to become a winning sportsbettor so hopefully you can help me with this. Earlier today you posted Arizona-LA Over 8 at -115 juice. I believe this was likely the opening line or very close to it at most books. A little before gametime tonight I saw the total at 7.5 with -110 juice on the under at 5dimes. So obviously a lot of people moved the total down. If you liked the under it would obviously have been better to wait closer to gametime rather than place it earlier. However, if you didn't place it earlier would it be better to avoid playing the game or would you still place it at 7.5? Basically does the fact that other people are in love with the under hurt your confidence in the over? Your getting the game at the closing line but does the fact that the line moved so far hurt the chances of the over occuring? I hope I phrased this in a way that makes some sense.

I know the outcome of the game and don't want to sound like I'm being results orientated. It's something I've always wondered. Thanks man.

Sawyer · 06-02-10, 07:33 AM

Originally posted by justaguy

Sawyer I have a question or questions for you if you don't mind. I have been trying to hang around this forum and take in information from good handicappers in an effort to become a winning sportsbettor so hopefully you can help me with this. Earlier today you posted Arizona-LA Over 8 at -115 juice. I believe this was likely the opening line or very close to it at most books. A little before gametime tonight I saw the total at 7.5 with -110 juice on the under at 5dimes. So obviously a lot of people moved the total down. If you liked the under it would obviously have been better to wait closer to gametime rather than place it earlier. However, if you didn't place it earlier would it be better to avoid playing the game or would you still place it at 7.5? Basically does the fact that other people are in love with the under hurt your confidence in the over? Your getting the game at the closing line but does the fact that the line moved so far hurt the chances of the over occuring? I hope I phrased this in a way that makes some sense.

I know the outcome of the game and don't want to sound like I'm being results orientated. It's something I've always wondered. Thanks man.

It depends on line imo. For example, if my pick is Over 7½, I will pick Over 8 too since you don't lose your bet in case of 8 runs. However, if my line is Under 8, I may not pick it at Under 7½ since you will lose your bet in case of a exact 8 runs.

Beating closing line is important but it's impossible to get the best line all time. Sometimes, it will move in your favor, sometimes it will move on the other way. Don't believe in myths like sharps, sharp action etc. All sharps cannot be on a same side.

Sawyer · 06-02-10, 07:35 AM

cle-det over8½ -110 lost
bos-oak under9 -105 lost
ari-la over8 -115 lost
chc-pit under8½ -120 winner
mil-fla over9 -120 winner
stl-cin over8 +100 winner

Split Night.. 3-3, -30

MLB TEA System Total Plays: 46-36, %56, +831
MLB TEA System Over Plays: 12-5, %70.5 (Score in first inning is 12-6 for Over Plays)

SolidDala · 06-02-10, 07:51 AM

Originally posted by Sawyer

cle-det over8½ -110 lost
bos-oak under9 -105 lost
ari-la over8 -115 lost
chc-pit under8½ -120 winner
mil-fla over9 -120 winner
stl-cin over8 +100 winner

Split Night.. 3-3, -30

MLB TEA System Total Plays: 46-36, %56, +831
MLB TEA System Over Plays: 12-5, %70.5 (Score in first inning is 12-6 for Over Plays)

Hope you keep tracking this TEA system and not remove it like the other total system if it would go down towards the lower %50's .. Glad that it still here

!! Followed a lot of totals in the dark from you in NBA and those saved a lot of otherwise losing nights so interested to see how this TEA will stand after 200 plays or so

BOL tonight

Sawyer · 06-02-10, 08:01 AM

Thank you mate. I'm more confident with my NBA Totals but I like to take my chance with MLB Totals too

TheGambler · 06-02-10, 08:02 AM

Originally posted by SolidDala

Hope you keep tracking this TEA system and not remove it like the other total system if it would go down towards the lower %50's .. Glad that it still here

!! Followed a lot of totals in the dark from you in NBA and those saved a lot of otherwise losing nights so interested to see how this TEA will stand after 200 plays or so

BOL tonight

I agree completely... the NBA totals were money and I believe you mentioned you were hoping to hit around 60% again next year. Looking forward to it.

SolidDala · 06-02-10, 08:08 AM

Originally posted by Sawyer

Thank you mate. I'm more confident with my NBA Totals but I like to take my chance with MLB Totals too

Well those whom never take chances in life will miss out of one

Sawyer · 06-02-10, 08:24 AM

Originally posted by TheGambler

I agree completely... the NBA totals were money and I believe you mentioned you were hoping to hit around 60% again next year. Looking forward to it.

I hope so. My record would be better if I had sticked with Totals only (132-83, %61 this year)

Next season, I guess I will stick with Totals only

FR3SH like UgHH · 06-02-10, 08:59 AM

any play on the atl/phil game?

Sawyer · 06-02-10, 09:13 AM

Mlb 6/2

4 TEA System Plays for today..

Chicago vs Pittsburgh Under 8½ -103 (A little bit anxious about this one because of Zambrano. He's not a reliable pitcher and he's a good hitter, LoL!)
Colorado vs San Francisco Under 7 -101 (My favourite play of the day)
Boston vs Oakland Under 9½ -109 (A little bit anxious about this one since Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Boston)
Toronto vs Tampa Bay Under 8 -120 (Liked this one as well)

Petman · 06-02-10, 10:38 AM

3? System plays or is it 4? Wondered if one of these is not a system play.

Sawyer · 06-02-10, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by Petman

3? System plays or is it 4? Wondered if one of these is not a system play.

Oh, yes 4 it is.. My head is full with wedding preparations these days.. (24 days left, Yuck!)

HalColdvice · 06-02-10, 12:08 PM

Sawyer, are you posting your 1st inning plays in this thread? I just see them off-and-on and usually the next day when its too late for me.

(patiently waiting for the 1IP system)

Sawyer · 06-02-10, 02:12 PM

Yes, I'm posting my 1st Inning plays in this thread but not very often. Why?

1. Usually, there's a big difference in odds between my local and offshore books. For example, today I picked NO RUNS in 1ST INNING for SDG-NYM game at -135 (1.73). It's -160, -165 in offshore books..

2. After I picked 1st Inning bet at an offshore book, odds drop since limits are low. -120 may be valuable line but it's not valuable anymore when it moves to -140. I picked YES at +120 few days ago and it dropped to -115 in 5 minutes.

3. Usually, I'm waiting for lineups to be announced. ESPN announces lineups usually 1 hour 'til the start of the game. Sometimes, it's too late for me to post since I have a limited time to handicap lineups and place my wagers.

Thanks for your understanding.

But you can play YES on my Over bets (TEA System Overs) with your eyes closed.

Regards,

Sawyer

FR3SH like UgHH · 06-02-10, 02:24 PM

sawyer im'a tail u on the METS no score...

but no over bets today for the TEA? im thinking clev/det...

i like chi/pit under(think z pitches well) and the sf/col but thats later...

Sawyer · 06-02-10, 03:14 PM

leaning under for nym-sdg also..

Sawyer · 06-02-10, 03:17 PM

Jays vs Rays line is 7½ right now.. Happy to pick it at 8