Sawyer's MLB Total Plays Thread

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  • Sawyer
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 06-01-09
    • 7761

    #561
    GL Guys!

    I'm expecting 3 RBI, 1 HR, 5 H performance by Dan Haren!
    Comment
    • TheGambler
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 07-16-06
      • 972

      #562
      Excellent info as always Sawyer!!
      Comment
      • Sawyer
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 06-01-09
        • 7761

        #563
        1ST INNING PLAY ALERT!!

        PICK: CWS VS TEX NO RUNS IN 1ST -115


        GL Boys!
        Comment
        • freddues
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 02-29-08
          • 591

          #564
          Sawyer thanks for willingly sharing some of your strategies in Bases. I am currently looking at different stats (than bullpens) and it is working well. It is amazing how many relevant stats there are in Bases.

          ?

          What is your opinion on who will win four games in the NBA final?

          Thanks--GL
          Comment
          • Sawyer
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 06-01-09
            • 7761

            #565
            My main focus is Totals, I'm not really deep in side betting but Purple and Gold will win it all imo
            Comment
            • Sawyer
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 06-01-09
              • 7761

              #566
              Originally posted by Sawyer


              PICK: CWS VS TEX NO RUNS IN 1ST -115

              Stupid Harden.
              Comment
              • Sawyer
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 06-01-09
                • 7761

                #567
                Wow, 6 runs already in Reds vs Cards game! Lookin' good!
                Comment
                • HighVoltage
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 05-31-09
                  • 562

                  #568
                  They have to get at least one more. This one should be good, but you never know.
                  Comment
                  • jose21_us
                    SBR MVP
                    • 05-24-10
                    • 3844

                    #569
                    3-3 marlins game. Just a few more...
                    Comment
                    • jose21_us
                      SBR MVP
                      • 05-24-10
                      • 3844

                      #570
                      6-3 worse we can do is tie here.
                      Comment
                      • Sawyer
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 06-01-09
                        • 7761

                        #571
                        A run to be scored in 1st Inning Prop is 10-4 (excluding today) for TEA System "Over" Plays. Interesting, isn't it?

                        An early run in Dodgers vs D'Backs game will make the record 13-5!

                        You know my next 1st Inning Bet..

                        GL!
                        Comment
                        • Sawyer
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 06-01-09
                          • 7761

                          #572
                          Originally posted by Sawyer
                          TEA System Plays for 6/1



                          cle-det over8½ -110 lost
                          bos-oak under9 -105 pending
                          chc-pit under8½ -120 winner
                          mil-fla over9 -120 winner
                          stl-cin over8 +100 winner

                          ari-la over8 -115 pending

                          Go, Go, Go!!
                          Comment
                          • og4667
                            SBR MVP
                            • 09-17-09
                            • 2438

                            #573
                            interesting how your succes comes from just betting the totals. Congrats! What do you think about the Mariners/Twins total for tonight. Both pitchers ERA adds up to a shade under the total of 8 and Blackburn has fared well against Seattle while Vargas pitches well at home.
                            Comment
                            • Sawyer
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 06-01-09
                              • 7761

                              #574
                              Originally posted by og4667
                              interesting how your succes comes from just betting the totals. Congrats! What do you think about the Mariners/Twins total for tonight. Both pitchers ERA adds up to a shade under the total of 8 and Blackburn has fared well against Seattle while Vargas pitches well at home.
                              Over %52, Under %48 imo, No Play.
                              Comment
                              • og4667
                                SBR MVP
                                • 09-17-09
                                • 2438

                                #575
                                huh well thanks for the info.
                                Comment
                                • Lion4Life
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 03-30-10
                                  • 797

                                  #576
                                  Comment
                                  • Pauulzcappin
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 04-23-10
                                    • 20295

                                    #577
                                    Meh, the over on Dodgers game isn't looking good.
                                    Comment
                                    • jose21_us
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 05-24-10
                                      • 3844

                                      #578
                                      not at all... We need some big innings quick
                                      Comment
                                      • justaguy
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 02-28-10
                                        • 156

                                        #579
                                        Sawyer I have a question or questions for you if you don't mind. I have been trying to hang around this forum and take in information from good handicappers in an effort to become a winning sportsbettor so hopefully you can help me with this. Earlier today you posted Arizona-LA Over 8 at -115 juice. I believe this was likely the opening line or very close to it at most books. A little before gametime tonight I saw the total at 7.5 with -110 juice on the under at 5dimes. So obviously a lot of people moved the total down. If you liked the under it would obviously have been better to wait closer to gametime rather than place it earlier. However, if you didn't place it earlier would it be better to avoid playing the game or would you still place it at 7.5? Basically does the fact that other people are in love with the under hurt your confidence in the over? Your getting the game at the closing line but does the fact that the line moved so far hurt the chances of the over occuring? I hope I phrased this in a way that makes some sense.

                                        I know the outcome of the game and don't want to sound like I'm being results orientated. It's something I've always wondered. Thanks man.
                                        Comment
                                        • Sawyer
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 06-01-09
                                          • 7761

                                          #580
                                          Originally posted by justaguy
                                          Sawyer I have a question or questions for you if you don't mind. I have been trying to hang around this forum and take in information from good handicappers in an effort to become a winning sportsbettor so hopefully you can help me with this. Earlier today you posted Arizona-LA Over 8 at -115 juice. I believe this was likely the opening line or very close to it at most books. A little before gametime tonight I saw the total at 7.5 with -110 juice on the under at 5dimes. So obviously a lot of people moved the total down. If you liked the under it would obviously have been better to wait closer to gametime rather than place it earlier. However, if you didn't place it earlier would it be better to avoid playing the game or would you still place it at 7.5? Basically does the fact that other people are in love with the under hurt your confidence in the over? Your getting the game at the closing line but does the fact that the line moved so far hurt the chances of the over occuring? I hope I phrased this in a way that makes some sense.

                                          I know the outcome of the game and don't want to sound like I'm being results orientated. It's something I've always wondered. Thanks man.
                                          It depends on line imo. For example, if my pick is Over 7½, I will pick Over 8 too since you don't lose your bet in case of 8 runs. However, if my line is Under 8, I may not pick it at Under 7½ since you will lose your bet in case of a exact 8 runs.

                                          Beating closing line is important but it's impossible to get the best line all time. Sometimes, it will move in your favor, sometimes it will move on the other way. Don't believe in myths like sharps, sharp action etc. All sharps cannot be on a same side.
                                          Comment
                                          • Sawyer
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 06-01-09
                                            • 7761

                                            #581
                                            cle-det over8½ -110 lost
                                            bos-oak under9 -105 lost
                                            ari-la over8 -115 lost
                                            chc-pit under8½ -120 winner
                                            mil-fla over9 -120 winner
                                            stl-cin over8 +100 winner


                                            Split Night.. 3-3, -30

                                            MLB TEA System Total Plays: 46-36, %56, +831
                                            MLB TEA System Over Plays: 12-5, %70.5 (Score in first inning is 12-6 for Over Plays)

                                            Comment
                                            • SolidDala
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-14-09
                                              • 1696

                                              #582
                                              Originally posted by Sawyer
                                              cle-det over8½ -110 lost
                                              bos-oak under9 -105 lost
                                              ari-la over8 -115 lost
                                              chc-pit under8½ -120 winner
                                              mil-fla over9 -120 winner
                                              stl-cin over8 +100 winner


                                              Split Night.. 3-3, -30

                                              MLB TEA System Total Plays: 46-36, %56, +831
                                              MLB TEA System Over Plays: 12-5, %70.5 (Score in first inning is 12-6 for Over Plays)


                                              Hope you keep tracking this TEA system and not remove it like the other total system if it would go down towards the lower %50's .. Glad that it still here !! Followed a lot of totals in the dark from you in NBA and those saved a lot of otherwise losing nights so interested to see how this TEA will stand after 200 plays or so

                                              BOL tonight
                                              Comment
                                              • Sawyer
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 06-01-09
                                                • 7761

                                                #583
                                                Thank you mate. I'm more confident with my NBA Totals but I like to take my chance with MLB Totals too
                                                Comment
                                                • TheGambler
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 07-16-06
                                                  • 972

                                                  #584
                                                  Originally posted by SolidDala
                                                  Hope you keep tracking this TEA system and not remove it like the other total system if it would go down towards the lower %50's .. Glad that it still here !! Followed a lot of totals in the dark from you in NBA and those saved a lot of otherwise losing nights so interested to see how this TEA will stand after 200 plays or so

                                                  BOL tonight
                                                  I agree completely... the NBA totals were money and I believe you mentioned you were hoping to hit around 60% again next year. Looking forward to it.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • SolidDala
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-14-09
                                                    • 1696

                                                    #585
                                                    Originally posted by Sawyer
                                                    Thank you mate. I'm more confident with my NBA Totals but I like to take my chance with MLB Totals too
                                                    Well those whom never take chances in life will miss out of one
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Sawyer
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 06-01-09
                                                      • 7761

                                                      #586
                                                      Originally posted by TheGambler
                                                      I agree completely... the NBA totals were money and I believe you mentioned you were hoping to hit around 60% again next year. Looking forward to it.
                                                      I hope so. My record would be better if I had sticked with Totals only (132-83, %61 this year)

                                                      Next season, I guess I will stick with Totals only
                                                      Comment
                                                      • FR3SH like UgHH
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 04-27-10
                                                        • 1464

                                                        #587
                                                        any play on the atl/phil game?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Sawyer
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 06-01-09
                                                          • 7761

                                                          #588
                                                          Mlb 6/2

                                                          4 TEA System Plays for today..

                                                          Chicago vs Pittsburgh Under 8½ -103 (A little bit anxious about this one because of Zambrano. He's not a reliable pitcher and he's a good hitter, LoL!)
                                                          Colorado vs San Francisco Under 7 -101 (My favourite play of the day)
                                                          Boston vs Oakland Under 9½ -109 (A little bit anxious about this one since Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Boston)
                                                          Toronto vs Tampa Bay Under 8 -120 (Liked this one as well)
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Petman
                                                            SBR Rookie
                                                            • 03-19-10
                                                            • 42

                                                            #589
                                                            3? System plays or is it 4? Wondered if one of these is not a system play.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Sawyer
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 06-01-09
                                                              • 7761

                                                              #590
                                                              Originally posted by Petman
                                                              3? System plays or is it 4? Wondered if one of these is not a system play.
                                                              Oh, yes 4 it is.. My head is full with wedding preparations these days.. (24 days left, Yuck!)
                                                              Comment
                                                              • HalColdvice
                                                                SBR Rookie
                                                                • 06-02-10
                                                                • 25

                                                                #591
                                                                Sawyer, are you posting your 1st inning plays in this thread? I just see them off-and-on and usually the next day when its too late for me.

                                                                (patiently waiting for the 1IP system)
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Sawyer
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 06-01-09
                                                                  • 7761

                                                                  #592
                                                                  Yes, I'm posting my 1st Inning plays in this thread but not very often. Why?

                                                                  1. Usually, there's a big difference in odds between my local and offshore books. For example, today I picked NO RUNS in 1ST INNING for SDG-NYM game at -135 (1.73). It's -160, -165 in offshore books..

                                                                  2. After I picked 1st Inning bet at an offshore book, odds drop since limits are low. -120 may be valuable line but it's not valuable anymore when it moves to -140. I picked YES at +120 few days ago and it dropped to -115 in 5 minutes.

                                                                  3. Usually, I'm waiting for lineups to be announced. ESPN announces lineups usually 1 hour 'til the start of the game. Sometimes, it's too late for me to post since I have a limited time to handicap lineups and place my wagers.

                                                                  Thanks for your understanding.

                                                                  But you can play YES on my Over bets (TEA System Overs) with your eyes closed.

                                                                  Regards,

                                                                  Sawyer
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • FR3SH like UgHH
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 04-27-10
                                                                    • 1464

                                                                    #593
                                                                    sawyer im'a tail u on the METS no score...

                                                                    but no over bets today for the TEA? im thinking clev/det...

                                                                    i like chi/pit under(think z pitches well) and the sf/col but thats later...
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Sawyer
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 06-01-09
                                                                      • 7761

                                                                      #594
                                                                      leaning under for nym-sdg also..
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Sawyer
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 06-01-09
                                                                        • 7761

                                                                        #595
                                                                        Jays vs Rays line is 7½ right now.. Happy to pick it at 8
                                                                        Comment
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