MLB Betting Preview: White Sox Host Hot Rays
Small ball has been Ozzie Guillen's styles on Chicago's South Side over the years, but that might prove disastrous in the White Sox' upcoming series with the hard-hitting Tampa Bay Rays.
Life is tough in Major League Baseball when you’re the home team and you’re still the underdogs. But that’s reality for the Chicago White Sox. They’re in the basement of an already shabby American League Central Division at 4-9 (-6.67 units), and they’re about to welcome the hottest team in baseball, the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays (10-3, 8.02 units).
Chicago has been a boom-or-bust team for most of these seven years under manager Ozzie Guillen. He’s an old-school proponent of small ball, which means he’s giving away outs via the bunt, the sacrifice and the runner caught stealing.
Chicago doesn’t create enough runs to win ball games when the pitching staff is anything but top notch, like it was in 2005 when the White Sox won the World Series. In 2009, the Sox allowed the fewest runs in the league with 732, but they only scored 724 runs, finishing 79-83 for a deficit of 7.11 units.
The Pale Hose made a big splash last summer by adding 2007 National League Cy Young winner Jake Peavy to their rotation, but he’s winless in his first three starts this year. Instead, it’s been No. 4 starter John Danks (two earned runs in two games) carrying the load for the White Sox. He’ll take the mound in Tuesday’s series opener against Tampa Bay, a team Danks has beaten in five of his six career opportunities – throwing a quality start in each of the last five.
Danks has performed very well for Chicago from a statistical perspective over the past two seasons, posting a WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) of 6.1 in 2008 and 5.0 in 2009. That compares favorably to staff ace Mark Buehrle at 4.4 WARP in 2008 and 5.4 WARP in 2009. But where’s the run support? The UNDER went a combined 39-25-1 for Danks over the past two seasons, and Chicago won just 34 of those 65 games, losing 2.1 units along the way.
Chicago’s solution for its lack of scoring? None other than Juan Pierre, the reigning poster boy for small ball. Pierre already has six stolen bases this year, but his .491 OPS hardly seems worth the $10 million he’s getting paid in his first season with the Pale Hose. Just to rub it in, Pierre is part of a DH rotation on the South Side. That job should go to Andruw Jones (1.073 OPS), who is on his fourth team in four years, but Jones is still getting ample playing time in the outfield despite losing his defensive mojo after undergoing knee surgery in 2008. At least Jones is hitting well again.
Looking forward to this matchup for Tampa Bay is David Price, the first overall choice of the 2007 MLB Draft and a profitable rookie for the Rays in 2009, earning 4.21 units on a team record of 14-9. Price is off to a very promising start this year with two quality starts, completing seven innings in victories over the New York Yankees (-109) and Baltimore Orioles (+143). If this keeps up, Price will be a household name come October.
As for run support, the Rays scored nine times in each of Price’s two starts, and they lead the American League with 70 runs. But they could be doing so much better. Ben Zobrist (.676 OPS) is taking a while to warm up in his second full season in the majors, and new catcher Kelly Shoppach is out 4-6 weeks with a knee injury, which puts old catcher Dioner Navarro (.394 OPS) back in the saddle again. Yes, Tampa Bay still has room for improvement.
The White Sox had the day off Monday to prepare while the Rays were beating the Boston Red Sox (-166) 8-2 at Fenway Park. Shortly after that game ended, the betting odds for Tuesday night’s matchup opened with Tampa Bay favored slightly at -115. The total was eight runs; the 'under' is 20-7 in the last 27 games between these two clubs. That’s small ball for you.
Small ball has been Ozzie Guillen's styles on Chicago's South Side over the years, but that might prove disastrous in the White Sox' upcoming series with the hard-hitting Tampa Bay Rays.
Life is tough in Major League Baseball when you’re the home team and you’re still the underdogs. But that’s reality for the Chicago White Sox. They’re in the basement of an already shabby American League Central Division at 4-9 (-6.67 units), and they’re about to welcome the hottest team in baseball, the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays (10-3, 8.02 units).
Chicago has been a boom-or-bust team for most of these seven years under manager Ozzie Guillen. He’s an old-school proponent of small ball, which means he’s giving away outs via the bunt, the sacrifice and the runner caught stealing.
Chicago doesn’t create enough runs to win ball games when the pitching staff is anything but top notch, like it was in 2005 when the White Sox won the World Series. In 2009, the Sox allowed the fewest runs in the league with 732, but they only scored 724 runs, finishing 79-83 for a deficit of 7.11 units.
The Pale Hose made a big splash last summer by adding 2007 National League Cy Young winner Jake Peavy to their rotation, but he’s winless in his first three starts this year. Instead, it’s been No. 4 starter John Danks (two earned runs in two games) carrying the load for the White Sox. He’ll take the mound in Tuesday’s series opener against Tampa Bay, a team Danks has beaten in five of his six career opportunities – throwing a quality start in each of the last five.
Danks has performed very well for Chicago from a statistical perspective over the past two seasons, posting a WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) of 6.1 in 2008 and 5.0 in 2009. That compares favorably to staff ace Mark Buehrle at 4.4 WARP in 2008 and 5.4 WARP in 2009. But where’s the run support? The UNDER went a combined 39-25-1 for Danks over the past two seasons, and Chicago won just 34 of those 65 games, losing 2.1 units along the way.
Chicago’s solution for its lack of scoring? None other than Juan Pierre, the reigning poster boy for small ball. Pierre already has six stolen bases this year, but his .491 OPS hardly seems worth the $10 million he’s getting paid in his first season with the Pale Hose. Just to rub it in, Pierre is part of a DH rotation on the South Side. That job should go to Andruw Jones (1.073 OPS), who is on his fourth team in four years, but Jones is still getting ample playing time in the outfield despite losing his defensive mojo after undergoing knee surgery in 2008. At least Jones is hitting well again.
Looking forward to this matchup for Tampa Bay is David Price, the first overall choice of the 2007 MLB Draft and a profitable rookie for the Rays in 2009, earning 4.21 units on a team record of 14-9. Price is off to a very promising start this year with two quality starts, completing seven innings in victories over the New York Yankees (-109) and Baltimore Orioles (+143). If this keeps up, Price will be a household name come October.
As for run support, the Rays scored nine times in each of Price’s two starts, and they lead the American League with 70 runs. But they could be doing so much better. Ben Zobrist (.676 OPS) is taking a while to warm up in his second full season in the majors, and new catcher Kelly Shoppach is out 4-6 weeks with a knee injury, which puts old catcher Dioner Navarro (.394 OPS) back in the saddle again. Yes, Tampa Bay still has room for improvement.
The White Sox had the day off Monday to prepare while the Rays were beating the Boston Red Sox (-166) 8-2 at Fenway Park. Shortly after that game ended, the betting odds for Tuesday night’s matchup opened with Tampa Bay favored slightly at -115. The total was eight runs; the 'under' is 20-7 in the last 27 games between these two clubs. That’s small ball for you.
