LB thread for MLB plays 2010

[lakerboy]

Yankees will bounce back, they like to rough up this Mark R guy. I LOVE the Reds tomorrow, gonna play them for a bit over a nickle tomorrow.

I was about to take the Reds but the line moved against them big time at pinny. Im gonna wait for the tt's to come out.

[Pauulzcappin]

I was about to take the Reds but the line moved against them big time at pinny. Im gonna wait for the tt's to come out.

I took the opener, don't think I'll be able to beat the closer since San Francisco is gonna get pounded after today's win.

I still think Reds get the W tomorrow, this kid Wood is an excellent pitcher

[No coincidences]

I'd be careful with the Reds on Tuesday, fellas.

Sanchez is quite possibly the most unpredictable pitcher in baseball. Very tough pitcher to cap.

[robert_wrath]

I'd be careful with the Reds on Tuesday, fellas.

Sanchez is quite possibly the most unpredictable pitcher in baseball. Very tough pitcher to cap.

I agree.

[Pauulzcappin]

I'd be careful with the Reds on Tuesday, fellas. Sanchez is quite possibly the most unpredictable pitcher in baseball. Very tough pitcher to cap.

He better bring his A game then tomorrow. He's facing a stud.

[MidgetTossers]

reds are gonna get swept guys..i would think twice about throwin a nickel on reds..just my opinion..i know how good wood is but sanchez will dominate tomorrow

[Pauulzcappin]

reds are gonna get swept guys..i would think twice about throwin a nickel on reds..just my opinion..i know how good wood is but sanchez will dominate tomorrow

If you have the patience check Sanchez record after a quality start.

[lakerboy]

Paul i would advise against fighting with the books. SF line looks like it will move in there direction. One thing i learned a long time ago is that fighting with the books is gonna lose you more money than win you. Good luck with the Reds on tuesday.

[Pauulzcappin]

Paul i would advise against fighting with the books. SF line looks like it will move in there direction. One thing i learned a long time ago is that fighting with the books is gonna lose you more money than win you. Good luck with the Reds on tuesday.

I'm aware i won't beat the closer this time

[MidgetTossers]

If you have the patience check Sanchez record after a quality start.

that doesnt matter to me..i watch sanchez very closely being from the bay area..i really believe the reds will have a tough time hitting him..im just trying to help out here, do whatever u feel..

[lakerboy]

grandmaster, it's very obvious you don't know squat about gambling. If pinny has -345/+315 on a game and i can get -300 each time.. i'd bet it 1,000 times each day, and would be wealthier than Donald Trump.. ask pinny if they'd give me -300 on those games and you'll see their answer and then you'll see just how much of a square you are.. i'll lay 400/1 odds that they would never take that bet.. grandmaster, i'd quit gambling if i were you.. quit before you go broke because you suck at this game and you are clueless

icer,

i only play at 6 books offshore and 2 locals for baseball. its all i need.

icer, i swear to GOD, i can't name you 1 player in NCAAB, not 1 player in NCAAF, and they are by far my best sports. icer, knowing stats and players, etc.. will NOT help you one bit to beat this game. this whole game is all about getting the best #. that's it..

WTF,

just try to beat pinny. this is the easiest way to start.. you can't go wrong doing this.


Paul that is from Nicky Santoro. Keep that advice and you will be better off long term. One thing i always try to do is get a better # than pinny. It doesnt happen often but when it is available you take it.

[Pauulzcappin]

that doesnt matter to me..i watch sanchez very closely being from the bay area..i really believe the reds will have a tough time hitting him..im just trying to help out here, do whatever u feel..

No problem MT. Ive been looking for sometime for this matchup, San Fran is gonna have a tough time to hit Wood's stuff from what I've seen. Gonna be a good game.

[lakerboy]

the majority here won't understand this. people will still handicap a game based on who is better. gambling has NOTHING to do with who's the better team or pitcher. it's all about getting the best #..

by someone handicapping a team or pitcher, they will lose. gambling is all a #'s game. you should not handicap the game....ever.. you should handicap the line..

when 2 teams play, i make my bet without even knowing anything about the teams or who is hot or who is pitching. i never even know who's pitching.

half the time i never heard of the guy.. i bet games based on the #.. if a line is not good, i lay off.
handicap the line.. not the teams. the teams mean nothing.. it's all about the line you get.. i let the books pick my games. if they are too high on fav, i am on the dog. and vice versa.

i have NOT handicapped a game in 20 yrs.. handicapping is a waste of time.. that's why a line is there.. every stat people think they know is already applied into the line..

SBR posters will never learn. they will continue to cap games and bet em no matter what the price is..


Paul read this as well from Nicky. I learned alot from him in my time here on this site.

[MidgetTossers]

No problem MT. Ive been looking for sometime for this matchup, San Fran is gonna have a tough time to hit Wood's stuff from what I've seen. Gonna be a good game.

are u watching tonights game?..a night like this will wake up your bats..when on, sanchez stuff is better then woods and sanchez pitches very well at at&t..good luck

[Pauulzcappin]

are u watching tonights game?..a night like this will wake up your bats..when on, sanchez stuff is better then woods and sanchez pitches very well at at&t..good luck

I disagree, I'll watch that first inning and see if that was a fluke or if they actually are gonna give Wood a hard time.

@LB

I don't entirely believe that gambling is just watching lines. Not really. I have a system that helps me predicts the winner, beating the closer is very important I agree, but it's not all about the line movement. Knowledge adds A LOT to learning to read the lines and beating the closer.

Good stuff you got but I don't agree completely.

[No coincidences]

Sanchez has arguably the best stuff in baseball when he's on.

Problem is, you never know when that's going to happen.

I think MT might be right about the Reds, though. They might be hitting a wall and could very easily get swept at SF.

[MidgetTossers]

I disagree, I'll watch that first inning and see if that was a fluke or if they actually are gonna give Wood a hard time.

@LB

I don't entirely believe that gambling is just watching lines. Not really. I have a system that helps me predicts the winner, beating the closer is very important I agree, but it's not all about the line movement. Knowledge adds A LOT to learning to read the lines and beating the closer.

Good stuff you got but I don't agree completely.

well we can agree to disagree on it and lets see how it plays out..thats why they play the games...

[MidgetTossers]

Sanchez has arguably the best stuff in baseball when he's on.

Problem is, you never know when that's going to happen.

I think MT might be right about the Reds, though. They might be hitting a wall and could very easily get swept at SF.

he makes fools look silly when on..i do think the reds have hit the wall on this trip and it will continue to show

[Pauulzcappin]

Sanchez has arguably the best stuff in baseball when he's on. Problem is, you never know when that's going to happen. I think MT might be right about the Reds, though. They might be hitting a wall and could very easily get swept at SF.

Sure, that's why he is San Francisco's 4th starter

[$Burm$]

Lb,

when you talk about beating the closing #, I obviously understand what that means, but couldn't you still produce a profit by just waiting and seeing how the line moves and betting it right before gametime..I am confused why you must bet it the night before or earlier in the day before the game begins, I understand you may not be getting as much juice, but wouldn't that team be the right play then if you see good line movement in their favor??

[No coincidences]

Sure, that's why he is San Francisco's 4th starter

Have you watched him pitch much, Paul?

He's SF's fourth starter because he isn't even remotely consistent. Akin to Morrow of TOR.

[limitation]

One fact to be considered is Reds bullpen has been over used past few days. Compared that to Giants bullpen which has been given proper rest. If it's going to be close game going into late innings, Giants definitely has an edge because of their superior bullpen. Reds pen has been horrible all year long. Be careful with chasing Reds.

[Pauulzcappin]

Have you watched him pitch much, Paul? He's SF's fourth starter because he isn't even remotely consistent. Akin to Morrow of TOR.

Yep I have, maybe he wasn't on that day but I saw nothing above average. I'm gonna watch the last game he pitched and make sure I'm not getting fooled here.

Morrow is great as long as he doesn't walk more than 2 batters a game, he always hits the strike zone with a powerful fastball and a nasty slider.

[MannyWood]

Hey Guys, Dont know if i am missing something but can someone explain to me why Milwaukee is a home dog to the Dodgers tomorrow

[MidgetTossers]

Yep I have, maybe he wasn't on that day but I saw nothing above average. I'm gonna watch the last game he pitched and make sure I'm not getting fooled here.

Morrow is great as long as he doesn't walk more than 2 batters a game, he always hits the strike zone with a powerful fastball and a nasty slider.

if u watch his last game u will feel like u are getting fooled...his stuff is nasty bro there is no ifs ands or buts about it..like nocoin said he is just inconsistent..he has #1 type stuff

[Vaioice]

Hey Guys, Dont know if i am missing something but can someone explain to me why Milwaukee is a home dog to the Dodgers tomorrow

2 words: Ted Lilly

[sharper2]

Hey Guys, Dont know if i am missing something but can someone explain to me why Milwaukee is a home dog to the Dodgers tomorrow

Along with what vaioice said, public will always play the dodgers because they are public team, especially against the dodgers. Books always wanna take public money.

[Pauulzcappin]

Just watched Sanchez's innings pitched against Philadelphia.

A few considerations: He kept the down ball most of the time and had his control to hit the outside corner a few times.

Though there were some 90-92 fastballs down the middle that a few other teams like the Blue Jays would have drilled to the upper deck.

I think his off-speed stuff is awesome. Beautiful curveball.

It's gonna be a good game.

[broadway6]

good luck to all

[JR007]

GOOGLE "BEATING THE CLOSING LINE(GAMBLING) AND THERE ARE ARTICLES ON THIS..i WAS READING THEM ALL NITE...THESE GUYS WERE ECHOING WHAT LB SAID........THEY DO NOT LOOK AT ANY TEAMS...CAPP ANYTHING
THEY COULD CARE LESS...ALL ABOUT THE NUMBER.....WHY WOULD THEY HAVE ANY INTEREST IN WNBA ??? GOOD NUMBERS THERE

[Wilforth]

i have NOT handicapped a game in 20 yrs.. handicapping is a waste of time.. that's why a line is there.. every stat people think they know is already applied into the line..

SBR posters will never learn. they will continue to cap games and bet em no matter what the price is..

As for the Reds/Giants game, my pick is:

Under 7 (+105)

[Tommy_de1st]

Guys, im really interested in these line moves, let's make the exmple as Wil posted Reds/Giants Totals:

TOTALS - OVER/UNDER
08/23 18:30 7 -117 / 7 +106
08/23 19:28 7 -127 / 7 +115
08/24 08:43 7 -130 / 7 +118
08/24 09:07 7½ +102 / 7½ -113


Why is your play Under? the odds are going up on Under

[Mashaka]

LB I do agree with you that as long as you beat the no vig line you are going to be a long term winner. It is pure and simple math. But since I'm new to "line" handicapping, for me it is a lot harder than it looks. Can you help me out by giving some guidelines in what to look for?. Also, besides SBR where do you find a better estimate of public % betting? Thanks.

[jorge1]

LB, maybe i dont understand line movement and believe me, im trying to learn, but why is OAK at -109 when the line opened at -120 and i think about 84% of the public is on them? Shouldnt it move the other way? Just wanting to know what you say about line movement because perhaps im not looking at this right...

[Pauulzcappin]

LB, maybe i dont understand line movement and believe me, im trying to learn, but why is OAK at -109 when the line opened at -120 and i think about 84% of the public is on them? Shouldnt it move the other way? Just wanting to know what you say about line movement because perhaps im not looking at this right...

Reverse line movement, means people with deep pockets are pouding Cleveland.