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just be patient.... the winning will continue in both threads...I am a newbie and love the work u guys put in. My feeling from researching seasons past is that as the season goes on and we develop a feel for the teams, wont this system be even more successful? In april we have somewhat of an idea of what teams will play well, but who would have predicted nats would be over .500 for example? I am thrilled to be showing a profit. i would think june and july will be awesome for this system. I am pleased with how well i did monetary wise for april. I know my opinion isn't worth a sh*t, just want to thank G and Reverend for their excellent work and hope to be in this thread in august flush with cash along with everyone else!!
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G- I did read your thread--sorry for the confusion but the results I was referring to was with Rev's system not yours. I don't think I made any references to results from your system. I wish both you guys well-in no way was I being critical or disrespectful to Rev or you for that matter. I'm just saying this week was proof that one bad week can easily wipe out several successful weeks. I don't think Im willing to continue this for the rest of the season. I may continue the RL fav plays because of the much lower juice on the RL.Comment -
Well what a last couple of weeks. I too have suffered three C bet losses with the Red Sox twice, and the stupid Astros once. However, with all that happening in a two week time period I am still have more now than what I had before the season started. I know these days suck, and I went from more than doubling my entire roll from $1K to over $2.5K to now having less than $2K.
All i can say is that even though I have farrrr less than what I had a couple days ago, I can't complain since I'm up a little so far. I also think as time goes on, we will get a better feel for the good/bad teams and the system will get stronger. Let this be a lesson to us that we really have to spend time and analzye each series pick because just going by a gut feeilng sometimes doesn't cut it. I mean who would have that the Sox would lose 3 in a row to a team with the worst record in baseball???
To those who are down, I know it's a s****y feeling but try to remember that strict money management is key. If you are on a roll, don't push it.
GL to everyone the rest of the season and let's look forward onto tomorrow. I see the Yanks as the only good opportunity for tomorrow. Other series are a toss-up.Comment -
Damn, I still can't believe the Sox. I know you're not supposed to moan and complain, but they show no heart sometimes.
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This is not much fun. I guess it is never much fun to lose. I am not giving up though. How can I? How can anyone give up? This is the best job in the world.. It is a blessing to be able to make money this way. We all need to realize that. So we will take this loss and learn from it. The more and more the season goes the more money we will all make. Especially when we have such a wonderful thread with so many positive people. We have a thread full of intelligent people to help each other out! With that being said.. I LIKE OUR ODDS! I hope we all have a great week.Comment -
I know.. You would think they would show more heart than what they do.Comment -
Amen Jordan23!
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I have personally analyzed all of the upcoming series on Monday & Tuesday.....I agree there are not many solid series coming up
I have noticed we have alot of perceived "favorites" playing their series on the road
If the Yankees are giving up too much juice, I say take a look at the SF Giants
They have their top of the rotation going against the Marlins on the road
Lincecum / Zito / Cain will all be going in their series
I know the Giants are not world beaters on the road, but they will miss J. Johnson (FLA's ace) in this series and they will have a sweet-ass matchup w/ Lincecum going against A. Sanchez in Game 1
I like that series for this system
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I have personally analyzed all of the upcoming series on Monday & Tuesday.....I agree there are not many solid series coming up
I have noticed we have alot of perceived "favorites" playing their series on the road
If the Yankees are giving up too much juice, I say take a look at the SF Giants
They have their top of the rotation going against the Marlins on the road
Lincecum / Zito / Cain will all be going in their series
I know the Giants are not world beaters on the road, but they will miss J. Johnson (FLA's ace) in this series and they will have a sweet-ass matchup w/ Lincecum going against A. Sanchez in Game 1
I like that series for this system
ALSO LOOK AT THE LA DODGERS vs. MIL BREWERS....nice matchups there as well w/ Kershaw pitching Game 1 in that series......Dodgers seemed to find their bats again & the Brewers starters have all been "gas-cans" in the month of April (with the exception of their #1 SP Gallardo - who will not pitch in this LAD series)Comment -
One other one worth looking at is the Padres at home against the Rockies. Some analysis is needed, but just looking at the pitching matchups, the first game obviously favors Colorado with Jimenez going. The other two games could easily go for SD as LeBlanc goes on Tuesday and then Richard goes on Wednesday versus Cook, who hasn't pitched well this season.Comment -
What I am going to explain below is what I have done in the last 2 weeks of this series chase (it has helped me stay away from these C Bet losses most of you guys are taking)
I have been passing on Game 1 of a "marginal" series or a bad pitching match-up like what is coming up in Game 1 of the SD-COL series (Jimenez going for COL)
I passed on game 1 of the HOU series that all of you ended up taking C Bet losses on....I instead ended up playing only Game 2 & 3 as my A & B Bet....I lost both bets, but I never lost a C Bet b/c I passed on Game 1 of this "marginal" series
For example in the upcoming COL-SD series (we will be playing SD in this series):
Pass on Game 1 w/ Jimenez pitching....if COL wins Game 1, then make it a 2 game chase on SD only for Games 2 & 3
If SD wins Game 1, then just pass on the rest of the series & move on
I think what everyone has to remember is that it's no big deal if you pass on a series once in awhile
You don't have to play EVERY SERIES that Rev is playing
If you are uncomfotable with a series, just pass on it instead of blindly following
Not to brag or anything, I personally passed on BOTH Boston & Tampa Bay this weekend, mostly b/c BOS has been playing like crap in April & Tampa Bay was facing a very tough KC starting pitching
I subbed out these 2 series for StLouis vs. CIN instead....I may have gotten lucky with this, but I used my OWN JUDGEMENT (which many of you seem are not doing) by not playing BOS & TB this weekendLast edited by Van G; 05-02-10, 10:49 PM.Comment -
Sunday May 2:
Chase Series: 2-1 (-26.4 Units)
*2nd C Bet loss this week. Very bad week!
*I have been working tonight on some changes to this system. The first major change will be regarding the money management aspect. The 2nd change is based on the filters I use. I hope to have these changes completed by tomorrow.
*I know many are discouraged, but please know that we will rebound from this week. We will show a large profit in this thread when the end of the season rolls around. This week as been one of the weirdest weeks in my betting career. Thanks for all the positive PMs you guys have sent.Comment -
The easy capping of Baseball is over! The first weeks of April were so damn easy and odds not so bad (f.e. Yankees).
I would suggest playing only 2 game series like van g mentioned... If you lose bet B take the loss and go on. A losing C-bet eats your bankroll dramatically and you feel like to bounce this money as fast as possible back... Because of emotional reaction you are picking losers and Vegas eats your bankroll once again...Comment -
I think playing most of the series for B Bets is a good idea
Like I said before, I personally felt uncomfotable w/ both BOS & TB, so I passed on both....plus they were giving up so much juice
I also did the 2 game chase with FLA....they lost Game 1 to WASH (which I did not play) so I turned the FLA series into a 2-game chase knowing that FLA's ace was pitching in Game 3 as my possible B BetComment -
Great work Reverend! Thanks for sticking with thread. I look forward to your adjustments and am confident we will have a nice week.Comment -
Looking forward to Monday's playz!
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I like the reds 5/3/2010
"its your money"Comment -
Also another thing I went with some times when you want to decrease your risk:
Just Bet as much units as you would need to win with the C bet to break even (+- 0) without the 2 unit profit... It doens't reduce the risk very much, but atleast a bit... Just a thought
Btw statistically after this horrible week, the next ones are about to be awesome
We'll see!Comment -
Can't wait for your plays today, REV!Comment -
I feel your pain and totally understand your stance. I also took a major hit this week and also suffered an early season lost when I was trying to follow this thread and the one Stingy started. I believe that loss was also Boston and now I really do not like that team. I tried to recover my week's loss yesterday by taking my total amount and dividing it by 4 and placed a bet on TB, Bos, Sea and StL. Bos should have won this series in game B and in extra innings had a throwing error to set up the winning run yesterday. I had to have a sarcastic laugh last night when I heard on ESPN that this was the first home series sweep Balt has had over Bos in 36 years!! Just our luck, right!Then Sea had a 1-0 lead going into the 9th and lost 3-1 in extra innings too. So I have suffered a total of 4 C series beat downs and it's only the first week of May. I just think I'm too greedy for the system and we're all playing too many series. So for me I'm out a lot of money and just can't risk going any further down. I look at today's game with NYY and the line is just a complete joke. Should NYY win....yes but the slim chance they don't I just don't want to go down that path. I think selective betting and taking some more dogs is the way to go for me unless I really, really like a series. Maybe I'll wait for only B and C bets.
Just some of my suggestions for you all to consider:
1- Don't bet crap teams no matter how hot they appear. Face it Hou stinks and yes they had a nice little run there but they just got sweep in back-to-back series.
2- Avoid betting on a road team (Bos)
3- If game one wins in a 4 game set don't temp fate and play the next 3 games. Ok we got away with it this week but it was a 1-0 game and could have gone either way. GL guys I wish you nothing but success.Comment -
Here are my early leans
STL - I have been riding them hard and hate to press my luck, but they should win 1 and I like the pitching matchups. The juice should be pretty low the whole series too.
NYY - I would love to play them ML, but the juice is gonna be way too high at -300. I am thinking about going RL at around -140. They should win at least 1 game by 2 runs. I may look into the -1rl, but the juice is gonna be high with that too. May just pass on this series, but I hate to.
There are a few others that I don't like as much that I am thinking about waiting for a game 1 loss then playing a 2 game chase, or possibly waiting to play game 3 if they lose the first two.?.?
There just isn't a lot that is really jumping out at me right now which is probably good to keep the number of plays down.Comment -
Definitely agree with you on Yankees -1.5 runline. They should win one of these 3 games by 2 runs. We do need to stick to playing good teams at home and fading bad ones on the road and then still filtering teams that aren't playing well and pitching matchups. You are going to have way too many losses when you start playing too many road teams and trying to press too many series with bad teams. The occasional Yankees against the Orioles even in Baltimore etc are good series to bet on but not the marginal teams like Boston.Comment -
I like Yankees too.
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There gonna be any plays today Rev?Comment -
Monday May 3:
Series System:
A Bet: Yankees (-1 RL) Risking 2.46 Units to Win 1 Unit
FAV System:
A Bet: Yankees (-1 RL) Risking 2.46 Units to Win 1 Unit
*I am dropping all the series back down to 1 unit until I nail down the money management aspect, that I am still working on.Comment -
Thanks Rev for the update, keep up the good work.Comment -
keep the fantastic job Rev
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