Reverend's 2010 MLB

**reverend** · 04-22-10, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by Texas

is this personal favorite

yes, this is just a personal bet i am making. not part of any system or chase.

**khaden** · 04-22-10, 03:52 PM

Rev, thanks for the input. I am still on the fence with the Marlins, I am leaning to making a play on it--my personal opinion is we are playing a 3 game chase, not a 2 game chase. We have been lucky that the large % of plays are hitting on A bets and haven't been faced with this situation that often so far. I will be mad if I stay off and it hits, but will be just as pissed if I play it and they lose.

I'm sure I will change my mind 100 x between now and gametime.

**extenzeuser** · 04-22-10, 04:11 PM

what the?

**dume walker** · 04-22-10, 04:15 PM

Originally posted by reverend

Thursday April 22:

0-1 (-1.5 Units)

Pending Chase: 1

This was our first A bet loss on the FAV system, after 6 straight wins. I didnt like how the Twins sat some of their starters. I will be taking that into account in the future, and not blindly betting on the highest ML favorite.

One more thing you may want to take into account is not taking for granted that Talbot is a scrub and will screw up. (I'm not saying you did that today, but I think others did.) I believe he had a huge ERA last year but I also believe he shut down the CSW last week and the Twins today, costing bettors a lot of money who thought he'd tank. Someone to be cautious of in the future.

BTW, you're not just betting blindly on the highest ML favorite of the day for the FAV pick, are you? Or has that been your basic methodology in that area?

I also am looking forward to your posting your personal side picks. Thanks again for sharing, Rev. And GL with the Rockies today.

**JW Cash** · 04-22-10, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by reverend

Thursday April 22:

0-1 (-1.5 Units)

Pending Chase: 1

This was our first A bet loss on the FAV system, after 6 straight wins. I didnt like how the Twins sat some of their starters. I will be taking that into account in the future, and not blindly betting on the highest ML favorite.

If you come to Minnesota Rev, I will get us box seats at Target Field......

**garnetandblack** · 04-22-10, 04:31 PM

I'll be playing the C bet on the Marlins. Good luck to others who do.

**Schmidty29** · 04-22-10, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by JW Cash

If you come to Minnesota Rev, I will get us box seats at Target Field......

Not to be a hater but we got Citizens Bank baby. I say we change it to Citizens Dank.

**doublej95** · 04-22-10, 05:32 PM

I'm Playing it also, don't feel the best about the Marlins tonight, but I'm in it to win it.

**docvinny** · 04-22-10, 05:36 PM

i will be playing the C bet on the marlins as well this system is great, thanks rev

**G's pks** · 04-22-10, 05:39 PM

Good luck with your "C" bet guys... series did not fall within my system picks but wishing you guys a win. Remember if you are up you do not need to wipe yourself out with a series loss... You could also follow my money management listed in my thread... Protect winnings boys...longggggggggggg season. Nothing wrong with that! At least it is not massive chalk...But hopefully it wins whether you bet small, large or not at all...

**khaden** · 04-22-10, 06:11 PM

I'm sticking with the system and playing the c bet onthe fish.

**mizzoujohn** · 04-22-10, 06:27 PM

Rev, I decided to call off the Marlins last night. Basically already gotten it back over yesterday and today, so no biggie. I think I'm going to be more selective in which series I play from now on (and err on the side of home teams, especially with a good-but-not-juggernaut team like Florida.

One idea of yours that I really like is poaching for units before series you will play. For instance, the A's are a finishing up a series vs the Yanks today, then the host the Indians (a series I would play regardless).
Yanks had won the 1st 2 games of today's series. I took OAK in game 3, and if it would have lost, I would have chased it into the Cleveland series. It happened to win today (at nice + odds as well), so I got one 'extra' unit before the CLE series even started. So essentially a unit I wouldn't have gotten otherwise.
I'm also doing that tonight with TB (even odds) at CWS, then they host 3 vs TOR. I'll chase into TOR series if needed. If Tampa wins tonight, I'll play TOR @ Tampa as a play individually, anyway.
I didn't play LAD @ CIN but am doing the same thing on LAD since they got play the Nats next.
What do you think of widespread, picking-your-spots use of this strategy?
John

**khaden** · 04-22-10, 06:39 PM

This sounds like a decent idea-but wouldn't this almost be the same as playing a series to a D bet. Using your example if the A's would have lost today you essentially are going to be chasing them for the next 3 games following a loss. Seems to me like we are just trying to avoid playing a C bet which I don't think we can do. Rev mentioned in an earlier post about not being as aggressive and cherry picking "easier" series to play. So far we only had 2 series go to a C bet. The brewers against the nationals and the C bet one. and the one pending tonight with the marlins. Out of 30 some series so far I'd say that is pretty freakin good. So whatever filters Rev is using is obviously working really well.

**G's pks** · 04-22-10, 08:18 PM

Just got home from dinner for the few of you that posted "C" bets you are off to a good start..GL.. I had no plays tonight.

**G's pks** · 04-22-10, 08:29 PM

Rev nice call on Col. I have been throwing a few personal picks in my thread too...

**Ferrarodc23** · 04-22-10, 08:53 PM

[COLOR=#000000 !important]Hey Rev, Im not sure if you already explained this and i missed it. I understand your units to win is $100 and you will increase that after 20 Wins. What percentage is that of your starting bankroll? If i remember correctly i thought you once said $1000 to begin, but im not sure. If you can please let me know, I'd appreciate that. Thanks and Good Luck tonight and the rest of the season.[/COLOR]

**reverend** · 04-22-10, 09:33 PM

Originally posted by reverend

Thursday April 22

Individual Personal Bet:

Colorado (ML) 2.5 Units to Win 1.5 Units

1-0 (+1 Unit)

**reverend** · 04-22-10, 09:34 PM

Originally posted by JW Cash

If you come to Minnesota Rev, I will get us box seats at Target Field......

sounds like a good plan

**Echofox** · 04-22-10, 09:34 PM

Originally posted by mizzoujohn

One idea of yours that I really like is poaching for units before series you will play. For instance, the A's are a finishing up a series vs the Yanks today, then the host the Indians (a series I would play regardless).
Yanks had won the 1st 2 games of today's series. I took OAK in game 3, and if it would have lost, I would have chased it into the Cleveland series. It happened to win today (at nice + odds as well), so I got one 'extra' unit before the CLE series even started. So essentially a unit I wouldn't have gotten otherwise.
I'm also doing that tonight with TB (even odds) at CWS, then they host 3 vs TOR. I'll chase into TOR series if needed. If Tampa wins tonight, I'll play TOR @ Tampa as a play individually, anyway.

I have done the same thing a coupe times as well. I think maybe only once before tonight but did it tonight with the Rays as well. Wish I had the insight to see Oakland laying the beating on the A's, however...

**reverend** · 04-22-10, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by mizzoujohn

Rev, I decided to call off the Marlins last night. Basically already gotten it back over yesterday and today, so no biggie. I think I'm going to be more selective in which series I play from now on (and err on the side of home teams, especially with a good-but-not-juggernaut team like Florida.

One idea of yours that I really like is poaching for units before series you will play. For instance, the A's are a finishing up a series vs the Yanks today, then the host the Indians (a series I would play regardless).
Yanks had won the 1st 2 games of today's series. I took OAK in game 3, and if it would have lost, I would have chased it into the Cleveland series. It happened to win today (at nice + odds as well), so I got one 'extra' unit before the CLE series even started. So essentially a unit I wouldn't have gotten otherwise.
I'm also doing that tonight with TB (even odds) at CWS, then they host 3 vs TOR. I'll chase into TOR series if needed. If Tampa wins tonight, I'll play TOR @ Tampa as a play individually, anyway.
I didn't play LAD @ CIN but am doing the same thing on LAD since they got play the Nats next.
What do you think of widespread, picking-your-spots use of this strategy?
John

John,

You are right on point with this. I played a few of these early in the season as Situational System plays. Great job today with the A's! We will have more of these going forward. Go ahead and let us know in this thread when you got some going...

**reverend** · 04-22-10, 09:38 PM

Originally posted by Ferrarodc23

[COLOR=#000000 !important]Hey Rev, Im not sure if you already explained this and i missed it. I understand your units to win is $100 and you will increase that after 20 Wins. What percentage is that of your starting bankroll? If i remember correctly i thought you once said $1000 to begin, but im not sure. If you can please let me know, I'd appreciate that. Thanks and Good Luck tonight and the rest of the season.[/COLOR]

I started with 2K at the beginning of the season trying to win 1 unit per series. We have increased that to 1.5 as of now...

but that amount is subjective...as long as you can cover the bets, hopefully it wont matter...

**mizzoujohn** · 04-22-10, 09:48 PM

Originally posted by khaden

This sounds like a decent idea-but wouldn't this almost be the same as playing a series to a D bet. Using your example if the A's would have lost today you essentially are going to be chasing them for the next 3 games following a loss. Seems to me like we are just trying to avoid playing a C bet which I don't think we can do. Rev mentioned in an earlier post about not being as aggressive and cherry picking "easier" series to play. So far we only had 2 series go to a C bet. The brewers against the nationals and the C bet one. and the one pending tonight with the marlins. Out of 30 some series so far I'd say that is pretty freakin good. So whatever filters Rev is using is obviously working really well.

typically wont get to 4. However, it might, so we might have to think of a different betting strategy so that bet #4 isn't astromonical. Maybe diminishing bets on 2, 3, and 4 or something when playing this strategy (not for most bets, stick with regular betting on those).

John

**SkivChef** · 04-22-10, 09:49 PM

Yes!!!!!!!

**khaden** · 04-22-10, 09:51 PM

The fish cash on the C bet-congrats to those that played it!!! On to the weekend series.

**khaden** · 04-22-10, 09:53 PM

xxx

Originally posted by mizzoujohn

typically wont get to 4. However, it might, so we might have to think of a different betting strategy so that bet #4 isn't astromonical. Maybe diminishing bets on 2, 3, and 4 or something when playing this strategy (not for most bets, stick with regular betting on those).

John

Im in favor on anything that we can sneak out extra units on--like I said what we (Rev) are doing is obviously working great so far-so as the season progresses and these are tweaked it should only get better.

**docvinny** · 04-22-10, 09:55 PM

The baseball gods have blessed us with a winning C bet

**dogs1972** · 04-22-10, 09:55 PM

Congradulations guys. Those C's are hard to play, but they are suppose to win.

**mizzoujohn** · 04-22-10, 09:55 PM

congrats to those who played FLA.
John

**goldseeker** · 04-22-10, 09:58 PM

Congrats

**reverend** · 04-22-10, 10:20 PM

Well done Florida backers!

**Jon Q Phenomenon** · 04-22-10, 10:23 PM

Time to pop the SBR post cherry, grats on those that rolled with the c-bet on the fish tonight, me included. I've been following you for a while Rev and like the vibe in this thread, good input and info guys....Always a fan of a sound, consistent system.

BOL in the future all, i'm looking to continue to learn and hopefully contribute here.

**reverend** · 04-22-10, 10:24 PM

Originally posted by Jon Q Phenomenon

Time to pop the SBR post cherry, grats on those that rolled with the c-bet on the fish tonight, me included. I've been following you for a while Rev and like the vibe in this thread, good input and info guys....Always a fan of a sound, consistent system.

BOL in the future all, i'm looking to continue to learn and hopefully contribute here.

glad to have ya jon

**Jon Q Phenomenon** · 04-22-10, 10:32 PM

Originally posted by reverend

glad to have ya jon

Thanks, great to be here, and i'm sure that "pending chase" will turn into a win for your system when the fish face the pads next week.....

now i just have have to get to work on formulating my own systems so i can compete with you guys

**reverend** · 04-22-10, 10:39 PM

Working on the next round of series. Hope to have them finished in a bit...

We will have a B bet on the FAV System...that is the 1 pending bet right now (due to the Twins loss today)

**reverend** · 04-22-10, 11:13 PM

Friday April 23:

FAV System:

B Bet: Boston (-1 RL)

Series System:

A Bet: Boston (ML)

A Bet: Tampa Bay (ML)

A Bet: Brewers (ML)

A Bet: Oakland (ML)

Situational System:

A Bet: Dodgers (ML)

I will post the units tomorrow. I just wanted to get the plays out tonight for those who have asked me about that.