Reverend's 2010 MLB

[balls2wall]

I understand that, however Rev is running the sytem and capped this series. I respect his his work and am merely seeking his opinion on this play. I will take his opinion into consideration before I decide if I will play it.

I understand


I am trying to figure out how I am going to play it as well. This will be my first C bet of the year. I played the B bet to only win half a unit so that is helping a bit and I am thinking about playing C to break even if I go with it. If I don't play the C then I am basically even on the week.


My problem is that I doubled my unit size ( don't I wish, LOL) this week so a C loss will hurt much more than if I was still at my original bet size.

[doublej95]

Advice for future system plays, figure up what the C bet will be ever before you place your A bet. It's harder to do that in baseball then in the basketball systems I play. But maybe figure the series through with average odds of -150/-160 to get an idea of the risk you will be taking. If every time a C bet comes up and it scares you, I would advise against system betting. Reverend provides good systems to play but it's not his call if you should make the C bet or not.

[Tsunami]

Great Thread Rev, much appreciated

[reverend]

Wednesday April 21:


Situational System:

B Bet: Tampa Bay (ML) 3.15 Units to Win 3.15 Units (1.5 Unit Profit)

B Bet: Florida (ML) 4.66 Units to Win 3.15 Units (1.5 Unit Profit)


FAV System:

A Bet: Seattle (ML) 1.92 Units to Win 1 Unit

Wednesday April 21:

2-0 (+2.5 Units)

Pending Chase: 1

[balls2wall]

Advice for future system plays, figure up what the C bet will be ever before you place your A bet. It's harder to do that in baseball then in the basketball systems I play. But maybe figure the series through with average odds of -150/-160 to get an idea of the risk you will be taking. If every time a C bet comes up and it scares you, I would advise against system betting. Reverend provides good systems to play but it's not his call if you should make the C bet or not.

I agree and that was my point that it is not his call if anyone person should make the C bet or not. The person is in control of his own bankroll and should be making his own decisions.


I personally am not playing reverend's system. However, his plays from the start have been pretty much in line with mine so I keep track of this thread and like all of the input Rev and everyone else provides.


A C bet doesn't "scare' me, but if I think it should have won on A or B and I don't like the feel of the C game I am not necessarily going to blindly play the C game at the full amount or at all.


With that being said, I still haven't figured out what I am going to do with this one.

[reverend]

Alright Fellas...

Here is my thoughts on the C bet with the Marlins:

The Marlins have blown 2 leads in both of our games. They had a 4-2 lead in our A bet and then a 4-1 lead last night in our B bet. I had alot of weight on Johnson being the stopper in the B bet for this series. As of last night, I felt confident with the Marlins in this C bet, but as today has progressed, we have seen the ML drop nearly 20 points. Both starters today are their teams #5 guys, and I would take the Marlins guy any day over the Astros pitcher. But with some perspective...

A little perspective:

We have had 34 plays in this thread that were either the Series or Situational Systems. Of those 34, 32 have won on either the A or B bet. Most all of the Series System plays have won on the A bet. The 2 C bet opportunities have both been under the Situational System. Looking back, I think I have been a little too aggressive this early in the season. We have had great success, but been exposed a little too much for my liking. With this said, we have 3 great systems going in this thread. I am in the middle of making a few tweaks to them, so I will get those out soon.

Like I said before, this is your bankroll, so please evaluate the risk/reward in your own eyes. I will say that the Marlins have the Padres and Nationals coming to them starting on Monday, so that appears at first glance to be 2 potential Series System plays.

With that said, I do not feel comfortable risking approximately 9 units on the Marlins today just to break even on this series chase. We are up 12 units this week in this thread, so even backing out the loss of 7.5 units on the Marlins, we are still showing a profit of 4.5 units with some quality series starting tomorrow. If you ask me if I think they will win this game...the answer is yes, but that does not mean I think the risk/reward is in line to risk 9+ units on this bet. Right now, I am down about 7.5 units on this series. My plan is to pass on this bet today and possibly work those lost units into future series.

That is one of the possible changes coming is weighing these plays and betting to win variable amounts of units instead of trying to win a set amount on every series we play.

But for those who are going on with the C bet, I am rooting for you!

[reverend]

I agree and that was my point that it is not his call if anyone person should make the C bet or not. The person is in control of his own bankroll and should be making his own decisions.


I personally am not playing reverend's system. However, his plays from the start have been pretty much in line with mine so I keep track of this thread and like all of the input Rev and everyone else provides.


A C bet doesn't "scare' me, but if I think it should have won on A or B and I don't like the feel of the C game I am not necessarily going to blindly play the C game at the full amount or at all.


With that being said, I still haven't figured out what I am going to do with this one.

balls said it very well above when he said:

A C bet doesn't "scare' me, but if I think it should have won on A or B and I don't like the feel of the C game I am not necessarily going to blindly play the C game at the full amount or at all.

It just so happens that 2 of the C bets this season have come when our team has had average pitchers going. This will not always be the case. I welcome C bets, but just because we have a C bet does not mean we blindly bet it. We still evaluate the match-up and make a sound betting/financial decision.

[Daniel]

Thank you very much for your analysis Rev, it is much appreciated. I completely agree that everyone is responsible for their own money, and it's their call. However, as someone who's not as knowledgeable about all players, and an amateur at betting, I like to hear why or why not a bet is valuable or not.

I'm staying away from the C-bet today.

[balls2wall]

Alright Fellas...

Here is my thoughts on the C bet with the Marlins:

The Marlins have blown 2 leads in both of our games. They had a 4-2 lead in our A bet and then a 4-1 lead last night in our B bet. I had alot of weight on Johnson being the stopper in the B bet for this series. As of last night, I felt confident with the Marlins in this C bet, but as today has progressed, we have seen the ML drop nearly 20 points. Both starters today are their teams #5 guys, and I would take the Marlins guy any day over the Astros pitcher. But with some perspective...

A little perspective:

We have had 34 plays in this thread that were either the Series or Situational Systems. Of those 34, 32 have won on either the A or B bet. Most all of the Series System plays have won on the A bet. The 2 C bet opportunities have both been under the Situational System. Looking back, I think I have been a little too aggressive this early in the season. We have had great success, but been exposed a little too much for my liking. With this said, we have 3 great systems going in this thread. I am in the middle of making a few tweaks to them, so I will get those out soon.

Like I said before, this is your bankroll, so please evaluate the risk/reward in your own eyes. I will say that the Marlins have the Padres and Nationals coming to them starting on Monday, so that appears at first glance to be 2 potential Series System plays.

With that said, I do not feel comfortable risking approximately 9 units on the Marlins today just to break even on this series chase. We are up 12 units this week in this thread, so even backing out the loss of 7.5 units on the Marlins, we are still showing a profit of 4.5 units with some quality series starting tomorrow. If you ask me if I think they will win this game...the answer is yes, but that does not mean I think the risk/reward is in line to risk 9+ units on this bet. Right now, I am down about 7.5 units on this series. My plan is to pass on this bet today and possibly work those lost units into future series.

That is one of the possible changes coming is weighing these plays and betting to win variable amounts of units instead of trying to win a set amount on every series we play.

But for those who are going on with the C bet, I am rooting for you!

You continue to do a great job of keeping track and breaking everything down.


keep up the good work

[palmer2712]

Wednesday April 21:

2-0 (+2.5 Units)

Pending Chase: 1

GL tonight. Hey, how you you chosing the A plays. Say tomorrow, we have 15 new series, you play all of them on A bets and tail team you like to not get swept in the series. I may have to start checking this out.

[reverend]

GL tonight. Hey, how you you chosing the A plays. Say tomorrow, we have 15 new series, you play all of them on A bets and tail team you like to not get swept in the series. I may have to start checking this out.

I dont play every series. I run all new series through a few round of filters and then cap each pitching match up of the series. Feel free to check out the thread. Theres been great dialogue in here so far this season, with a few wins as well

[dogs1972]

This doesn't make any sence? It's either a 3 game chase or it isn't. If you lose A and B why at anytime would a person have any confidence in a C game? Capping for a chase happens before the series starts not during. Win or lose, like it or not, I on this game.

[Ferrarodc23]

Hey Rev, Im not sure if you already explained this and i missed it. I understand your units to win is $100 and you will increase that after 20 Wins. What percentage is that of your starting bankroll? If i remember correctly i thought you once said $1000 to begin, but im not sure. If you can please let me know, I'd appreciate that. Thanks and Good Luck tonight and the rest of the season.

[dume walker]

FWIW, money is coming in pretty strong on Houston and against Florida. Houston opened at +125 and is now down to about -105. Marlins opened at -133 and is now at about -107. I'm taking a pass on this game as well.

[reverend]

Thursday April 22:


FAV System:

A Bet: Twins (-1 RL) 1.5 Units to Win 1 Unit

[reverend]

FWIW, money is coming in pretty strong on Houston and against Florida. Houston opened at +125 and is now down to about -105. Marlins opened at -133 and is now at about -107. I'm taking a pass on this game as well.

great point. i noticed this too. some factors you do not have access to until gameday

[reverend]

This doesn't make any sence? It's either a 3 game chase or it isn't. If you lose A and B why at anytime would a person have any confidence in a C game? Capping for a chase happens before the series starts not during. Win or lose, like it or not, I on this game.

I'm rooting for you.

This system is based on a 3 games chase, but that does not mean you are bound to it. earlier in the year, i placed a D bet on boston and won, so this by no means points to me not believing in the system. i do evaluate each match-up before the series, but there is new info each day that is taken into consideration...like the betting line movement and the previous 2 games.

with all that said, i hope the marlins win tonight

[dogs1972]

I hear ya, and I appreciate the feedback. I've played some chase series over the years and the C bets scare the hell out of me, but my money is already in and i even have my kidneys crossed on this one. Either way, ur a stud and ur info is appreciated.

[Betting Guru]

i feel good about marlins tonight! let's go!!!

[allenc85]

So are you going to grade tonights game in your situational system, and take the loss as is on your personal record? Isn't that what you did last time you laid off a C bet. Thanks Rev, I've enjoyed following this thread this year, I've got 5 units riding on the Marlins... BOL to us all

[press coverage]

Alright Fellas...



Like I said before, this is your bankroll, so please evaluate the risk/reward in your own eyes. I will say that the Marlins have the Padres and Nationals coming to them starting on Monday, so that appears at first glance to be 2 potential Series System plays.

I think that I may delay my "C" bet tonight on on the Marlins and make gm 1 of the FLA/SD series next week my "C" bet. Assuming that there aren't any injuries, Johnson will start that game vs. Latos.

[gushman]

I will be following the system and chasing the Marlins tonight. BOL to all on the Marlins tonight!

[reverend]

I think that I may delay my "C" bet tonight on on the Marlins and make gm 1 of the FLA/SD series next week my "C" bet. Assuming that there aren't any injuries, Johnson will start that game vs. Latos.

this is exactly what i am looking at doing as well

[reverend]

So are you going to grade tonights game in your situational system, and take the loss as is on your personal record? Isn't that what you did last time you laid off a C bet. Thanks Rev, I've enjoyed following this thread this year, I've got 5 units riding on the Marlins... BOL to us all

your correct. i will grade the series based on tonights results. i will be grading it a loss in my personal record.

[reverend]

the more i let this game sit, the better i feel about it

good luck tonight for the ones who are playing it!

[reverend]

Thursday April 22:


FAV System:

A Bet: Twins (-1 RL) 1.5 Units to Win 1 Unit

Thursday April 22:

0-1 (-1.5 Units)

Pending Chase: 1


This was our first A bet loss on the FAV system, after 6 straight wins. I didnt like how the Twins sat some of their starters. I will be taking that into account in the future, and not blindly betting on the highest ML favorite.

[Djtrikee]

Rev, How about Rockies? Great Pitcher, Starting Lineup in and Zimmerman is sitting for nats. Sounds like a FAV if I ever heard one?

[reverend]

Rev, How about Rockies? Great Pitcher, Starting Lineup in and Zimmerman is sitting for nats. Sounds like a FAV if I ever heard one?

your correct! i love the rockies today. i should have held off on the twins and played the rockies as the FAV play. no way that livo's magic keeps up against the rockies today!

[ahhlenn]

any official play on COL?

[reverend]

any official play on COL?

I have been trying to decide if I want to list my side plays in this thread. The Thread has just had the 3 systems we have been playing, but if you guys want, I will start including my side bets in the thread and just keep them recorded in my personal record...

[Djtrikee]

your correct! i love the rockies today. i should have held off on the twins and played the rockies as the FAV play. no way that livo's magic keeps up against the rockies today!

Cool, Thanks for advice.

[dynamitappletini]

I have been trying to decide if I want to list my side plays in this thread. The Thread has just had the 3 systems we have been playing, but if you guys want, I will start including my side bets in the thread and just keep them recorded in my personal record...

that'd be awesome

[reverend]

Thursday April 22


Individual Personal Bet:

Colorado (ML) 2.5 Units to Win 1.5 Units

[diegoelmestre]

I have been trying to decide if I want to list my side plays in this thread. The Thread has just had the 3 systems we have been playing, but if you guys want, I will start including my side bets in the thread and just keep them recorded in my personal record...

yeh.. we will love it

[Texas]

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