The New No Home Series Sweep Thread

[superjeff24]

About teams:

I like the list we have, but after doing more reading and research, I think this year it is much easier to pick the bottom dwellers.

We already have:
Pit
SD
Wash
KC
Hou

but i want to add in:
Clev
Tor

I have heard multiple baseball analysts say they could see Toronto having the most losses at the end of the season. losing doc and playing against improved yanks, bosox and rays, they are in for a long summer!
Tor

They'll finish ahead of Baltimore, but they won't be that bad. True, Halladay was a gem every outing, but they have developed a very strong farm system for pitchers.
If even a couple of their young guns get hot they could win 80+. Realistically they're going to win about 70ish though.

[DeHoyos]

Who should i take for 3pm ST??? quick!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[DeHoyos]

[DeHoyos]

Goin with Colorado....

[stingyrivers]

whats up guys... getting caught up... I like all the ideas from today... I will be working on this again all night... something tells me using some variation of this can get you in the ballpark of 150 - 200 wins on the year, which is great if we do that...

I will have to repost my progressive wagering format for the season... but, dodging a loss all year, which will be tough but possible, would yield exponential results on a starting bankroll

[Stealinhome]

Can't wait

[stingyrivers]

okay, the main concept is great... and now I am thinking... how do we go undefeated...

easy actually... but is it possible, this is what I am going to research tonight...

treat a home stand of at least two 3 game series back to back as a betting series

I would venture to say, for the top and bottom 10 teams you would never lose over the past decade, and for the top and bottom 5 teams you would probably almost never be chasing beyond 4 games....

what do you think? I am crunching the numbers and backtesting this now


I am going to backtest this over the past 4 years, for the following good and bad teams:

NYY, Bos, TB, LAA, LAD, CWS, Sea, SFG, Phi, St L

Wash, Pitt, KC, SD, Hou, Balt, Tor, Clev, Oak

[jolmscheid]

Go Stingy go!! Let me know what you come up with! I agree totally...we need to come up with something that will help us to AVOID losses...even if it means a less amount of plays...

[khaden]

Im in--im going to go with the $20 play and $400 bankroll. For some reason winning over 50k over the next 5 months sounds kinda good. I like it/

[reverend]

okay, the main concept is great... and now I am thinking... how do we go undefeated...

easy actually... but is it possible, this is what I am going to research tonight...

treat a home stand of at least two 3 game series back to back as a betting series

I would venture to say, for the top and bottom 10 teams you would never lose over the past decade, and for the top and bottom 5 teams you would probably almost never be chasing beyond 4 games....

what do you think? I am crunching the numbers and backtesting this now


I am going to backtest this over the past 4 years, for the following good and bad teams:

NYY, Bos, TB, LAA, LAD, CWS, Sea, SFG, Phi, St L

Wash, Pitt, KC, SD, Hou, Balt, Tor, Clev, Oak

It funny that you bring this up. This 6 straight home game idea is what actually drew me to this thread in the first place. I will say that it is unrealistic to play a 6 game chase on the ML, but I think it could prove profitable if you looked at it on the -1 RL!

As far as wins...I would love to win 100 series without a loss. That is my goal. Couple that with the progressive money mgt system we have discussed, and we will be doing alright.

[DeHoyos]

[TCarv]

This sounds good, looking forward to the season

[stingyrivers]

finish backtesting 10 of the top teams... I was backtesting the past 8 years, and then with some teams the numbers were not relevent because some good teams now 4 years ago sucked... so I back tested for the past 3 seasons, good sample size and relevent to the current top teams...

I used... Bos, Nyy, Tb, Cws, Laa, Lad, Phi, St L, Sfg, Sea....

the results over the course of three seasons.... 320 - 0

that number is correct... the longest chase in any of the three years was 5.... and the average over the 3 years and between the 10 teams was between 2 and 3

pretty amazing, but very much what I expected to see...

what do we think?

3 yrs, 320-0 thats about 107 wins a year... and I havent even backtested bad teams on the road yet to include with that

[daneault23]

Im in--im going to go with the $20 play and $400 bankroll. For some reason winning over 50k over the next 5 months sounds kinda good. I like it/

This means that someone with a $1000 bankroll could make $125000!!

[stingyrivers]

yes, if they dont lose a series

[reverend]

great numbers! and i would bet that the bottom dwellers will show identical numbers as well.

but the problem with this is that even chasing a team to 5 games, assuming the juice averages out around -200, you would be wagering these amounts along the way:

200-100
600-300
1800-900
5400-2700
16200-8100

if you lost 5 games, you would sustain a loss of $24,200 as a $100 bettor.

we all can agree that is not feasible.

[reverend]

we have to figure out a way to get the juice down, or decrease the length of the chase

[reverend]

i would imagine the -1RL would be almost perfect over that timeframe as well...

[stingyrivers]

that does make it seem impossible... I can go back and test for the - 1 RL see how it alters the results.... I pretty much know this would never lose if possible to play it all the way out...

here is why... you guys want another similar never lost approach....

never in the history of MLB (over 100 years) has a playoff or world series resulted without at least one home win....

you can look it up if you want... it has never happened... the only way a it could happen is for the series to go 7 with the away team winning all 7 games... it is almost virtually impossible, which is why it hasnt happened in a hundred years... in fact I am pretty sure that it has never happened in MLB, NBA or NHL in the history of any of the three leagues...

I suspect the record on getting one win in a homestand in the regular season is pretty similar....

the five game chase looks like laying 81 to win 1 at game 5... that is steep... not sure exactly how to make this 320 - 0 to our advantage yet

[stingyrivers]

if you stopped it as a 4 game chase it was... 317 - 3

if you were laying 54 to win one in the 2 game 4 losses...
10 dollar unit

3180 - 1620 = still up 150 units in 3 years

[reverend]

if you stopped it as a 4 game chase it was... 318 -2

if you were laying 54 to win one in the 2 game 4 losses...
10 dollar unit

3180 - 1080 = still up 210 units in 3 years

so to recap:

a team has to have 6 straight home games. if you play a 4 game chase on the ML, you went 318-2 over the past 3 years? (and this is on the 10 "good" teams you mentioned?)

this may be workable

[DuncHen22]

BOL Sting! I'm trying the "No Sweep at Home" thing too this year but I think I'm taking a different approach than you. I'm basically just going on a series-by-series basis instead of picking a set group of teams to play or fade. Also, I only play one at a time.

Another idea I had was to not play the first game in a series and chase if they lose the first game. That way you minimize your risk because you bet a max of 2 units instead of 4 (unless its a 4-game series).

[reverend]

on those 2 losses, what games were they and do you know the pitching matchups?

i am just thinking...if you had lost the first 4 games, and you knew you had 2 games left in the series, possibly the 6th game provided a better pitching matchup. so maybe if you had the option to skip game 5 and place your E bet on the 6th game, you would have gone undefeated.

[stingyrivers]

I had to edit it... in 3 years 5 game chase actually happened once in each of the 3 years... seattle sis it two of them and the phillies once...

the math still shows

10 dollar unit...

3170 - 1620 = +150 units

[stingyrivers]

great thinking I like that option... it could be a step anytime it goes past three... pick your spot in the remaining games for the 'D' bet...

and honestly, the 3 five game chases

Philly 2007 they werent quite great yet....

Seattle in 2008 and 2009 they havent really been considered decent until this season with the offseason moves....

so, in the past 3 years... really decent teams at the time hasnt gone to a game 5


also... teams like Boston, NYY and the other elite teams almost always win in game one or two... particularly Boston who seems to win a huge majority of games leading off a homestand

[reverend]

whats you thoughts on it stingy...

another idea would be to look at the entire 2010 schedule and go ahead and see all the 6 game home series, and 6 game away series. like you said, you have not even looked at this for the bad teams, and usually the bad teams are more brutal on the road...

[reverend]

great thinking I like that option... it could be a step anytime it goes past three... pick your spot in the remaining games for the 'D' bet...

and honestly, the 3 five game chases

Philly 2007 they werent quite great yet....

Seattle in 2008 and 2009 they havent really been considered decent until this season with the offseason moves....

so, in the past 3 years... really decent teams at the time hasnt gone to a game 5


also... teams like Boston, NYY and the other elite teams almost always win in game one or two... particularly Boston who seems to win a huge majority of games leading off a homestand

like you said...seattle has had no offense and the phils play in a hitters ballpark that somewhat equals the playing field with the longball potential

[stingyrivers]

agreed... I just looked at the Nationals, and before the allstar break (first half of last year) they lost every single first game of a road trip

[DeHoyos]

Nice work Sting...

[stingyrivers]

I would like by tomorrow to have the set plan, which right now seems not quite there... with all these considerations and approaches to this I am swimming a bit

[stingyrivers]

Dunchen... good luck man... the only thing about skipping game 1 is you miss out on a lot of wins... which is only a big deal if you hit a sweep... yes the juice you lay is a lot lower, but you also havent accumulated a lot of wins to absorb the loss

[DeHoyos]

We should also decide which plays are set in stone so we can jump on them when the line opens...

[stingyrivers]

I am really trying to make a concrete plan on all this tonight... I am not sure if it is going to open... the greek opened the line for Sunday nights game... NYY slight fav -115

lol... either sharp money or the public is in love with boston... line moved to Bos -115

[khaden]

I'm not sure I like the idea of a 6 game chase those bets can become insane--especially if we are going to be progressively increasing our unit size in 20 win incriments. What happened to the 3 game chase? Im not critizing your work, but I know there will be no way I will lay that kind of money over a 6 game series.

[stingyrivers]

I hear ya man... was just exploring the option in an attempt to try to filter out any losses... but honestly, the three game home series seems the only way to go... and just pick 200 correctly on the year...

it is nice to know the homestand approach has never lost, but there is no way to safely bet it