The New No Home Series Sweep Thread

Stealinhome · 04-01-10, 06:43 AM

Cool

stingyrivers · 04-01-10, 06:52 AM

I guess the pressure is on now to make sure we dont pick any sweeps lol....

natsbullie · 04-01-10, 07:08 AM

just being new to this will you be posting your picks? bol if this works

stingyrivers · 04-01-10, 07:12 AM

natsbullie.... yeah, there are some other guys working on this too and interested in it, I am hoping they find and carry into this new thread... we have researched a lot the past week on it, so if you have any questions just ask away... I gave the abbreviated version at the top for simplicity sake...

I was thinking of having this thread be for discussion and conversation about it, and then one for the agreed system plays and results on the year, so the two dont blend together

stingyrivers · 04-01-10, 07:16 AM

on a side note hoyos, any reason you were going to ride the redsox today? I am thinking of pulling the trigger as I type on that play

floridagolfer · 04-01-10, 07:19 AM

So, you've picked the teams to play this year, or play against, based on last year's results?

Boner_18 · 04-01-10, 07:20 AM

I will probably play along for a small sum (literally $1 or points or something). Hope this works out, will be interesting to see.

DeHoyos · 04-01-10, 07:22 AM

I just feel like Lackey is a good matchup vs Minny .221 team avg.

That's better than any other starter Boston's got...

stingyrivers · 04-01-10, 07:24 AM

based on the results, and input from all on the other thread that got closed... it seemed the best approach was to have a set list of top teams and of worst teams, and use that list as a core... and each week use that list and determine the best matchups for that week that fall into the system rules...

the list I got is.... Bos, NYY, TB, CWS as core top teams and Wash, Pitt, KC, SD, Hou as the bottom teams.... and the idea is each week look at those teams, and determine what the most solid plays are...

there is a list of series for the beginning of the week I put on the old thread... I will put them here now

stingyrivers · 04-01-10, 07:25 AM

nice stat Hoyos... sounds solid to me... it is spring training, but they use their last ST start as a dry run tune up for their opener... I am pulling the trigger on the bosox now...

DeHoyos · 04-01-10, 07:25 AM

That wont be the case vs. NYY

Tex,Jeter,Arod,Swish,Jorge,and Granderson all have dingers on him....

stingyrivers · 04-01-10, 07:30 AM

Series I am considering for the first week as potential plays, play in parenthesis

NYY at Bos (Bos)

Philly at Wash (Philly)

Clev at CWS (CWS)

Balt at TB (TB)

SD at Ariz (Ariz)

after a little while, I decided that there may be some strong teams on the road in week one that may be a strong play that wouldnt make sense not to include, such as Philly

who can see the Nats beating Halladay and then Hamels? In the opening series fresh off the world series loss?

and even if that miracle happens, you still got game three to bail you out....

a play like that seems so solid against a sweep, even though it is not on the home team, it doesnt make sense to pass on it

stingyrivers · 04-01-10, 07:31 AM

good point hoyos.... if I do make a play on that, it would be based on getting the W in game one or two, if I think it remotely has a chance of getting to game three, I wont play it

dvb02 · 04-01-10, 07:38 AM

Stingy, I suggest that once you decide what series you are playing, you make the play bold and a different color so we can all recognize it is an actual play. It looks like there will be a lot of conversation and it may be hard to find the actual plays if you don't do that. Just a suggestion.
I am ready for this to happen. I will probably filter out some of the plays based on their records. (also probably won't play when 2 of the top teams play each other like nyY vs Boston week 1.)
Good luck to us all!

stingyrivers · 04-01-10, 07:42 AM

yeah, that wont happen this time... trust me....

and dvb... thanks for the advice, I was actually thinking of having this thread be for discussion of it, and start a seperate thread strictly for the plays and results... what do you think... that way the two dont blend at all...

I agree, this is going to generate a lot of conversation all summer... and at the least should be fun

we were coming up with some great filters too, I have to remember them now

some were like you said....

only if your ace is going in the series... and only if the opponent is under .525 winning pct was being kicked around

stingyrivers · 04-01-10, 07:46 AM

I shouldnt bet when I am tired...

I just pulled the trigger on

redsox, tarheels, nuggets parlay

redsox, yankees parlay

phillies, mets parlay

thebestthereis · 04-01-10, 08:01 AM

not to be a jerk but you have went against the system on the first play. washington is at home (pit too) and you are betting against them? i understand it is highly unlikely for sweeps there but it is not what you have talking about all along. can you explain why you would bet these other than "the odds are these teams won't sweep"? thanks.

ps. you must add cleveland as in my opinion are the worst team in the american league, kc has a stopper, cleveland does not

DeHoyos · 04-01-10, 08:10 AM

read the thread from the beginning

stingyrivers · 04-01-10, 08:15 AM

good points... that is the thing... the other thread started to evolve a bit... and I think overall improve the basic concept.... to be honest with you, I am sticking to the original concept... I dont see road teams being in these plays as you note, there isnt any backtesting or numbers to back up a play....

but I suppose I am so stuck on Philly not getting swept... it will be a personal play of mine outside of the system, just because I dont see it losing...

I did find some more interesting things last night though, when I started to look at the few sweeps that have occurred over the years...

1) St L didnt get swept from 2001 through 2007 in any three game series.... that is impressive....

2) Milwuakee shows up repeatedly the past couple years in sweeping teams while on the road... be careful of making a play against them

3) when you use the core list of top teams when they are at home, they almost never get swept if they have their ace going in the series... the one real exception is SFG got swept twice with Lincecum going, but at the time they werent a potential contender as they are now... they had a AAA lineup back in 2008

4) a frequent theme in decent teams getting swept at home when it rarely happens is bullpen meltdowns, thus, possibly adding decent bullpen as a requirement could be a nice filter

there is a lot to this... this is just scratching the surface... the nice thing is even the blanket approach puts up amazing numbers

stingyrivers · 04-01-10, 08:18 AM

cleveland is likely to lose 95 games this year, so they are in there... the best idea seems to be to keep these teams in mind all season long, but as each week approaches, review the particular matchups to pick out the best plays of the week...

though I can say for sure, I will be playing Bos, NYY at home... fading Wash, Pitt on road... in essentially every series on the year

stingyrivers · 04-01-10, 08:38 AM

the best teams back tested over the past three years are BOS, NYY, CWS, LAD, LAA, and TB... and fading Wash, Pitt, KC, Hou, SD....

now there always is flux from year to year... this year in particular, there are some middle of the road teams in the past that are now likely to be some of the worst such as Clev, Toronto... and there are some teams that potentially will be decent, that already had good records with this as it is, such as SFG and Sea...

Also, there are some prior decent teams that have some roster question marks, such as LAD and LAA... LAA havent been swept at home in the past three seasons, but I hold off on putting them locked in at the top because they had some turnover that remains to be seen if they are still that solid... also, the past 3 years they were 51 - 0 but often times they went to a game three...

so, I think the best idea is have the core list of teams to get it started based on past performances with this, and then after a few weeks and we have a feel for the other teams in their current state... solidify the list... but I do believe that, each play should be on its own merit too, based on the current situation of the team that given week and the matchups....

balls2wall · 04-01-10, 09:10 AM

Glad to see this thread.

I was already basically working on the same thing, except it wasn't just home teams. They are pretty much the same teams to play on and off that you have listed plus and minus a few.

I have the early schedule mapped out with the match ups of the top teams vs the bottom dwellers. I am planning on cherry picking series to play. I have the match ups vs. good teams grayed out as no plays so I am just going with top vs bottom teams. I may change that around, but that is the plan as of now.

There are some where I will play a 3 game series to win one game and quit when it wins or the series is over. I am thinking on others where the team is on a good long stretch of match ups I am going to try to get more wins out of it (and not necessarily chase.?.?). For instance Philly starts out with 3 vs WAS then 3 vs HOU then 3 more against WAS. I don't want to quit on that if Philly wins the first game of that stretch.

Anyway, I still haven't figured out exactly what I am going to do yet. I have only been working on it for a few days and will be ready to roll by the start of next week.

I will be keeping an eye out here for any ideas.

good luck

DukeJohn · 04-01-10, 09:23 AM

Best of luck guys

MLB is set up for the chase. I am a professional sports bettor (I do this for a living) and I chase.

Keep up the good work and I hope you guys have a profitable season.

BOL

reverend · 04-01-10, 11:27 AM

Stingy

Glad to see the new thread. I woke up this morning to read all the nonsense that was posted last night.

Look here guys...if you read this thread and disagree, just leave. There is absolutely no reason to come in here and bash it with negativity. We are all big boys and can make our own decisions.

As far as teams, I too like how this has evolved from playing blanket teams to being able to evaluate as the season progresses. I do want to point out that when you are standing at the edge of the cliff, it is really easy to be scared off of a particular bet, for instance if Min is playing at ChiSox. So I want to make sure we are not cutting plays just because we are a little worried about them. If that happens, we are missing wins throughout the season that were accounted for in the blanket numbers over the past few years. exactly like the first series of the year this year with the yanks at boston.

reverend · 04-01-10, 11:29 AM

About teams:

I like the list we have, but after doing more reading and research, I think this year it is much easier to pick the bottom dwellers.

We already have:
Pit
SD
Wash
KC
Hou

but i want to add in:
Clev
Tor

I have heard multiple baseball analysts say they could see Toronto having the most losses at the end of the season. losing doc and playing against improved yanks, bosox and rays, they are in for a long summer!
Tor

do5000 · 04-01-10, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by reverend

About teams:

I like the list we have, but after doing more reading and research, I think this year it is much easier to pick the bottom dwellers.

We already have:
Pit
SD
Wash
KC
Hou

but i want to add in:
Clev
Tor

I have heard multiple baseball analysts say they could see Toronto having the most losses at the end of the season. losing doc and playing against improved yanks, bosox and rays, they are in for a long summer!
Tor

rev,
do you mean increase the number of teams to fade? or only fade the worst teams and dont chase the best home teams?

fastpitch_45 · 04-01-10, 11:37 AM

wow...looks like i missed an eventful night...reverend, i agree with your bottom dwellers

reverend · 04-01-10, 11:43 AM

hey do5000,

maybe i am just being extremely optimistic, but i think this season is going to present a great opportunity for this system this year!

as i mentioned, i feel the bottom dwellers are very weak this year, and i feel they are easier to pin point.

but i am still going to be backing the top home teams. along the same lines, i really feel like the few top teams got even better from last year. i think boston improved the most, but close behind the yanks and rays both filled spots that will make them better.

so in summary, i think those bottom 7 and then these top 3, will provide about 200 wins over their respective series. if a loss pops in, so be it, but i like my chances. and then supplement it by picking other series along the way, and wait and let the season play out to see what other teams make their claim to be top teams.

do5000 · 04-01-10, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by reverend

hey do5000,

maybe i am just being extremely optimistic, but i think this season is going to present a great opportunity for this system this year!

as i mentioned, i feel the bottom dwellers are very weak this year, and i feel they are easier to pin point.

but i am still going to be backing the top home teams. along the same lines, i really feel like the few top teams got even better from last year. i think boston improved the most, but close behind the yanks and rays both filled spots that will make them better.

so in summary, i think those bottom 7 and then these top 3, will provide about 200 wins over their respective series. if a loss pops in, so be it, but i like my chances. and then supplement it by picking other series along the way, and wait and let the season play out to see what other teams make their claim to be top teams.

i agree 100% and thats why im thinking it might be more profitable to fade those teams and play against them RL instead of ML. its much cheaper and teams that bad will lose BIG when they do. i might even try that instead of the top teams.
NYY ML to beat say FLA will be expensive, but betting CIN -1.5 at home to beat PIT seems a lot more reasonable, and would allow a longer chase.

or maybe bet the good teams ML and fade the bad teams RL...

but i know thats not what this thread is, so i dont want to be the guy to ruin it with "adjustments"

either way ill be following and i hope this thread can survive on only positive/useful posts.

GL to all

SparJMU · 04-01-10, 12:57 PM

Allow me to discuss the system and backetesting...................DO NOT DO IT. I am telling you right now that you will fail. I have used this system before. I have tracked it A LOT. IT WILL BUST YOU.

Guys think this through. The concept is a good one, good teams don't get swept at home against bad teams. The Dodgers and Angels don't get swept at home ever. You are on the right track, but its not solid gold. I am telling you right now this is how it will work for you.......you are going to win 15 or 16 quick ones right off the bat and be up about $1,600. You will be thrilled. You start talking about how great this is and applauding the SBRforum where you found it. Then one day you are going to see a 3 day series with the Padres travelling to the Dodgers and you are going to place your wager. $180 to win $100 on game, which loses, no big deal right? You have been to game 2 before. You are a little nervous but you still pay the juice and bet $560 to win $280 on game 2, which loses. Now you are down $740 in a two game stretch, and game 3 of the chase says bet $1,680 to win $840. Vegas knows people buy into this system so the line might actually be closer to -250. You are sweating bullets and immediately regret ever getting into this chase idea in the first place. Why am I risking $2,420 to profit $100???? Game 3 comes and goes, the Dodgers get swept at home for the first time all year, and you are completely demoralized.

Why did you buy into a system where one sweep caused you to wipe away 24 wins? What the hell were you thinking?

IF SYSTEMS LIKE THIS WORKED......VEGAS WOULD BE BROKE. DO NOT GET CAUGHT UP.

SparJMU · 04-01-10, 12:58 PM

I know people will not like my thread and tell me to stay out, but I am chiming in for a reason. I HAVE USED THIS SYSTEM. I HAVE FRIENDS WHO HAVE USED VARIATIONS OF THIS SYSTEM. YOU WILL GO BROKE.

CappinTerp · 04-01-10, 01:04 PM

STING I wish you ggod luck. This is not my cup of tea, but I agree to do this you must have 2 threads, it will make things easyer for people to understand and thus be less cluttered with questions.!!

jolmscheid · 04-01-10, 01:23 PM

Sting and Rev...I think our filters should be set in stone right now!

1)Only bet AGAINST UNDER .525 teams
2)Look at each week on a series to series basis
3)Only bet on the good home teams if they have their ACE going in that series
4)Only bet against the bad away teams when they DO NOT have their ACE going in that series

Sound good??

Hebodk · 04-01-10, 01:26 PM

GL Sting. I'm trying out a similar chase-system on over/under this MLB season.