Pre-preseason previews

[Willie Bee]

McCourt's divorce tops Dodgers winter news

If you are into juicy gossip and all the sordid details that come with high-profile divorces, the McCourt split in tabloids is just for you. And if you just like baseball stuff, read this.

One of the things I look forward to with baseball each coming season is listening to the games on the radio. If I'm not at the park watching a game with a cold one and a hot dog, listening to the game on the radio is still the next best thing to me.

Don't get me wrong; this isn't one of those good ol' day stories. As Nick Charles put it so well in the original Thin Man, "Don't kid yourself. These are the good ol' days."

I've bought the MLB.com radio stream since before I moved out to the country, and it's the best $10-$20 I've spent each year. And now that I'm the only person in my office, I don't have to wear headphones while I'm hard at work during the day and trying not to bother anyone else around me.

I really wish all of today's youth – age 30 and under – could go back and experience a week of sports as we did in the late 50s, early 60s, and before that. This isn't meant as a punishment. It's meant to let you hear some of the truly greats at the radio mic describing the game on the field. The really good announcers were not limited to just baseball, mind you, but when there was just one voice in the booth describing the action on the field, it was a thing to hear. And see. Yes, I said "see." Watching a game on the radio was truly possible with some of the really good broadcasters.

What reminded me of that now is two of the teams for this preview have a couple of my favorites to listen to when I'm streaming the games on this here cyberweb contraption. Vin Scully has been with the Dodgers longer than any other person but one, Tommy Lasorda. He's one of those rare human beings who replaced a legend, Red Barber, and wound up being even bigger than the man before him.

The Brewers have one of my favorites for this day and age, Bob Uecker. You might think of a clown when you hear Uecker's name, but for my money he's the closest thing to a traditional play-by-play radio broadcaster going in this day and age. Hey, I'm an Astros fan and hate the Brewers for the most part. But Uecker is good, really good.

Treat yourself to a game on the radio at some point this season.


Los Angeles Dodgers 12/1
2009 record/finish: 95-67, 1st in NL West
Departing: 2B Orlando Hudson, LHP Randy Wolf
Arriving: RHP Josh Towers, UTL Jamey Carroll
2010 outlook: Not a lot of change so far this offseason, other than taking care of some free agents including Vicente Padilla who is really a carry-over from the tail end of the '09 season. Most of the offseason news surrounding the franchise was the divorce crap between the McCourt's.

The airing of the front office dirty laundry did likely retard some of LA's offseason plans, but it's not like the Bums were going to be major players in the free agent market to start with. Wrapping up players like Matt Kemp, Jonathan Broxton, Andre Ethier and Chad Billingsley were the priorities; with that done, the Dodgers should open the '10 season somewhere a little above where they were in terms of payroll last April (ninth to start last season).

The club returns virtually intact from the product that topped the NL last season with 95 wins. The biggest change will be going with former first-round pick Blake DeWitt as the full-time second sacker. Oh, and assuming he doesn't fail another drug test they will have Manny Ramirez around for an extra 50 games this year. In the 50 games Manny missed last season, LA went 29-21 (.580) while going 66-45 (.606) when he was available for manager Joe Torre to put in the order.

My pick: 95 wins, 1st in NL West

Milwaukee Brewers 40/1
2009 record/finish: 80-82, 3rd in NL Central
Departing: OF Mike Cameron, SS J.J. Hardy, RHP Braden Looper, INF Felipe Lopez, C Jason Kendall, UTL Bill Hall
Arriving: OF Carlos Gomez, LHP Randy Wolf, LHP Doug Davis, RHP LaTroy Hawkins, C Gregg Zaun
2010 outlook: Having Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder in the lineup would make any team dangerous. But being a dangerous team is a lot different than being a playoff contender and I see the Brewers as nothing more than a middling team that should battle with the Reds for third place in the division.

Would it be a huge shock to see Milwaukee do more than that and push its way into the postseason mix? Absolutely not. Yovani Gallardo has top-of-the-rotation stuff and there is depth among the starters. Key to this mix will be whether or not Manny Parra gets back to the form he exhibited towards the end of his first full season, 2008. Wolf and Davis, along with Jeff Suppan, should fill out the starting mix and Hawkins gives Ken Macha a solid setup arm in front of Trevor Hoffman.

Alcides Escobar takes over at short and Rickie Weeks will try to avoid another injury-plagued season at second. The real key to this offense will be newcomer Carlos Gomez. If he can develop into a genuine leadoff hitter (i.e., an on-base mark of .330 or better), the Brewers could easily lead the NL in scoring. That is a huge IF, however.

My pick: 82-80, 3rd or 4th in NL Central

Kansas City Royals 75/1
2009 record/finish: 65-97, 5th in AL Central
Departing: RHP Jamey Wright, 3B Mark Teahen, C Miguel Olivo
Arriving: OF/1B/DH Josh Fields, OF Rick Ankiel, C Jason Kendall, OF Scott Podsednik
2010 outlook: I remain convinced that GM Dayton Moore is a solid guy to have in your front office. At the same time, he's in a bad spot trying to compete with the salary restrictions this club has. If the Royals are patient, Moore might build a 'small-market contender' a la the Twins or Athletics, but the question is will the Glass Family be patient?

Kansas City has a top-notch ace in Zach Greinke and a top-notch closer in Joakim Soria, so that puts them ahead of 6-8 other clubs at the very least. There's just not much help behind (or in front of) either of those two righthanders. If the Royals are going to really make a move up in the next couple of seasons, Brian Bannister and Luke Hochevar have to come to the party.

The recent signing of Ankiel is interesting in that the added depth – assuming KC thinks he can play everyday – might mean they are willing to deal David DeJesus to get another arm. Alex Gordon is another member of the team that needs to take that next step forward after an awful season compounded by hip surgery at such a young age. If he can, it sets up a very nice infield with Gordon at third, Billy Butler across the diamond at first and the middle infield tandem of Alberto Callaspo and Yuniesky Betancourt.

My pick: 70 wins, fourth in the AL Central

[Pbateman54]

Yeah...

Great read, good info... Have to watch some of the predictions in this blog. See if they happen.

[Tennisgirl]

No

it is not the twins year, they suck!!! If anything it is Tampa's year to shine.

[TheLock]

Frozenman, not a chance the Marlins win that many games or the NL East.

With the exception of 2007, the Marlins have been in serious contention for the wild card in mid September every year since 2002 (they won it all in 2003).

[TheLock]

Again Im with JJ..You cant out spend the Yanks so how the hell you gonna beat them...lol...

NYY spend a ton of $$$ every year. How many rings have they won in the last 10 years?

[Terrapin Station]

With the exception of 2007, the Marlins have been in serious contention for the wild card in mid September every year since 2002 (they won it all in 2003).

Okay. I wasn't disputing that at all. In my opinion, the Marlins will not win the NL East or 90+ games...

[FrozenMAN]

Okay. I wasn't disputing that at all. In my opinion, the Marlins will not win the NL East or 90+ games...

LOL ok they ****in RAN it last year and if they didnt go like 4-25 after going 15-0 they woulda EASILY won 95+ games plus we wouldn't have the talk about oooo the phils are so good cause they wouldn't have won the east let alone made the playoffs

team is stacked and THE LOCK knows what im talking about


JJ FOR CY YOUNG
HANLEY FOR MVP

[Willie Bee]

Fourth in a 10-part series

White Sox have reason to smile in 2010

Ozzie Guillen and the White Sox are all smiles entering the 2010 season, and why not? The rotation shapes up very nicely in what should be a wide-open AL Central Division.


About nine years ago I did some historical research and data entry for a couple of guys who were building a baseball simulation program. All I asked for in return of about 400 hours of work one winter was a copy of the program to play with for free.

That program will cost me another 150+ hours of work this winter getting it set up to run. Inputting the players' stats and projections is part of it, and adding the exact MLB schedule is another time consuming task.

Ah, the MLB schedule which is where I wanted to go when I started typing. If you're going to seriously wager on MLB win totals, you have to start by looking at the schedule. Sounds obvious, but many do not understand how skewed the slates are in many cases.

Not wanting to stand on my soapbox and rant – yet again – about how the schedules are messed up year after year after year, I will simply pose one question: If the Yankees had to play three extra games against the Red Sox at Fenway than they played in the Bronx, do you think we'd ever hear the end of it?

That is exactly how it works for the Cardinals this season, with St. Louis on the road at Wrigley Field nine times while getting the rival Cubs at Busch six times. That is, in fact, how it works every season in the NL Central with the 6-9/9-6 splits very common.


After pitching a fit about it for the last 6-7 years, even offering Bud Selig to have a fifth-grader fix it for him, I know that complaining will never get it changed. But I at least feel it is my duty to warn serious MLB futures players about it. For instance:

• The Red Sox are, in effect, the fifth team in the four-team AL West this season. Boston will play 39 games against ALW foes, getting 20 of them in Fenway. That includes seven each vs. the Angels and Rangers. The Sawks will play 33 games against the five-team AL Central.
• Speaking of the Rangers, they will play their usual 57 games against ALW opposition. They get a 10-9 home/away split against both the Angels and Mariners, with the 9-10 split vs. the A's. Of Texas' remaining 105 games on the schedule, 44 will be vs. the AL East (42%). The Rangers will make two trips across the border to play the Blue Jays.
• Back to the Cardinals. St. Louis, for some strange reason, will not play the Royals in the usual home-&-home interleague rivals setup. The Cards make a trip to KC, but the Royals will not be coming to St. Louis who has just 15 instead of its normal 18 games vs. the AL. In the NL Central, the Redbirds are even-Steven 9-9 with the Reds in terms of home/away numbers. St. Louis has a 9-6 advantage over Houston and Milwaukee, with a 6-9 slight against the Cubs and Pirates.

Boston Red Sox 11/2
2009 record/finish: 95-67, 2nd in AL East
Departing: OF Jason Bay, RHP Ramon Ramirez, OF Rocco Baldelli
Arriving: 3B Adrian Beltre, OF Mike Cameron, RHP John Lackey, UTL Bill Hall, OF Jeremy Hermida; SS Marco Scutaro
2010 outlook: It's a bit misleading to look only at the arriving/departing lines above; in actuality you need to include the changes that took place in-season a year ago like John Smoltz, Brad Penny and Julio Lugo leaving with Victor Martinez coming aboard, and then start from there.

This is a deep staff, especially the rotation. You've got six arms very capable of starting 97% of the games to choose from between Lackey, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Assuming all are a go to start season, Buchholz is the most likely candidate to start outside the rotation then move in. The bullpen isn't quite as deep as other seasons, and Jonathan Papelbon will have to 're-prove' himself to Red Sox Nation. I suspect this is where some minor tweaking is done during exhibition play by GM wunderkind Theo Epstein.

I'm not as quick to anoint Beltre as the new savior as others. He could do some damage and make me eat those words a bit, but I think the bigger move was anchoring at short until mid-2011, if not before, when Jose Iglesias arrives. J.D. Drew in right is a health concern as always, but Boston has Hermida in reserve with better overall outfield defense by shifting Ellsbury to left and bringing in Cameron.

My pick: 99 wins, 1st in AL East

Chicago White Sox 30/1
2009 record/finish: 79-83, 3rd in AL Central
Departing: DH Jim Thome, OF Jermaine Dye, 2B Chris Getz, RHP DJ Carrasco
Arriving: OF Juan Pierre, 3B Mark Teahen, INF Omar Vizquel, RHP J.J. Putz
2010 outlook: I never get these guys right, except for when I pegged them to beat the Astros in the 2005 World Series. What, you thought I'd go an entire article without plugging my beloved Astros? Only reason I had that prediction right in '05 was my engrained cynicism growing up a fan of the Texas Aggies, Houston Oilers and Houston Colt .45s/Astros.

I like this team. Biggest problem is the ChiSox are in a very volatile division. The AL Central is the 'who knows?' group this year. What really piques my interest about this squad is a rotation that should be deep. Maybe not Yankees deep, but I still like the potential of Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd. If Putz is healed, I cant wait to watch Ozzie Gullen work these starters and pen.

The keys on offense are Alexei Ramirez and Teahen as the left half of the infield. Lots of fingers pointing at Alexis Rios and the signing of Pierre in the outfield, but Ramirez, Teahen and the pitching staff are why I'm liking this team to win the division in the end.

My pick: 89 wins, 1st in AL Central

Oakland Athletics 70/1
2009 record/finish: 75-87, 4th in AL West
Departing: OF Scott Hairston, INF Adam Kennedy
Arriving: OF Coco Crisp, 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, RHP Ben Sheets
2010 outlook: Hey, someone has to finish last in a division that should see some upheaval this spring. In this case, it's the team that down-heaveled to the basement last season as well. It will take at least two other teams in the AL West to play under their paper value, plus several more in the East and Central divisions of the American League to play below theirs before Oakland can even be a wild card contender. I don't see it.

Comparisons are being drawn to their Bay Area counterparts in San Fran: All pitch, no hit. That assuming that Sheets stays entirely healthy and the young arms all advance. It could happen, but I'm not banking on it.

This club is also counting on young hitters to come of age at the same time. Kouzmanoff, Cliff Pennington, Rajai Davis and Daric Barton are all blossoming talents, but expecting all to flower this season in the cavernous Coliseum is too much to ask.

My pick: 72 wins, 4th in AL West

[whatsgood5]

Nice reviews so far, I'm getting chills just thinking of how close the season is, well kind of close. Can't wait for your review of my Braves, keep up the good work

[scarp]

Surprised the Braves are rated that high to win the World Series. I think they still need to pick up a big bat.

[whatsgood5]

Surprised the Braves are rated that high to win the World Series. I think they still need to pick up a big bat.

I agree. That was our main need heading in to the offseason and we really did not address it.

[Docta Ignoranti]

Willie great read as always and look forward to more, however I'll take Mets are under 85.

[BadFinger]

twins or tigers in the al central. white sox have weak hitting of and not enough relief pitching to win it.

[KingJIM]

Thanks for your opinions Willie.

[TheLock]

Okay. I wasn't disputing that at all. In my opinion, the Marlins will not win the NL East or 90+ games...

I agree that they will not win the NL East. I give them about a 5% chance of winning 90 games.

I made the posts because you seemed to be implying that they had no shot at the playoffs.

[TheLock]

Nice reviews so far, I'm getting chills just thinking of how close the season is, well kind of close. Can't wait for your review of my Braves, keep up the good work

It's a shame because if you weren't an a-hole points stiff you would be one of my favorite posters.

[Willie Bee]

Part 5 of 10

Atlanta Braves retool on way back to playoffs

Jair Jurrjens is one of the young stars the Atlanta Braves need to come through in 2010. The Braves are also counting on a lot of veterans to put it together just one more time.

David Schoenfield of ESPN.com has a new piece up calling for a somewhat radical realignment in the majors. Though I think Schoenfield's heart is in the right place on this issue, I'm not sure his head is.

Baseball missed the boat – What's new? – back in 1998 when Arizona and Tampa Bay joined MLB to bring the big leagues up to 30 teams. Instead of splitting the 30 down the middle and putting 15 teams in the AL and 15 in the NL, the game opted for a 16/14 NL/AL split that contributes to the scheduling muck and mire I discussed last week.

There were two primary reasons MLB did it this way. Jerry Colangelo, the big cheese with the new Diamondbacks in '98, was a big crybaby about wanting his new team in the NL. And he got his way, with Tampa Bay going into the AL East, Detroit shifting to the AL Central and the Milwaukee Brewers changing from the AL Central to the NL Central, forming that six team division and keeping the AL West a four-team group.

The other reason was a 15/15 divide between the two leagues would force at least one interleague series going on at all times.

The team that really got screwed on the deal was the Texas Rangers who have been playing a geographically unfair game since the six-division format started in the ill-fated 1994 season.

Rangers road trips for division games are always two time zones from their home base in Arlington. They are the only team that has no division foes in their own time zone. In addition to the extra travel expenses, there is lost local media revenue. When the Phillies and Mets get together, their games are always good for prime time TV/radio going back to the visiting team's fans. Texas fans back home in the Denton-Forth Worth area don't have that luxury when the Rangers play at Anaheim, Oakland or Seattle.

Moving a team to the AL West is going to cause a lot of yelling and screaming, no doubt. The two most logical choices to make the move are the Astros and the Royals. And if it's the Royals, it means moving the Brewers back to the AL Central. Again, I'm thinking logically here, so that means it will never happen in the major leagues.

As an Astros fan I really don't want to see Houston be the team to go, but that franchise really makes the most sense. Offer them $15 million up front, and $2 million extra each of the first three years to be applied directly to payroll to help offset the switch to a team that needs to draft and build with the DH in mind.


The schedule would then be very easy for each team in what would be six, five-team divisions:

• Play each of the other four teams in your own division 20 times (10 home, 10 away) for a total of 80 games.
• Play the other 10 teams in your league six times each (three home, three away). Plus one extra home-&-away (three games each) against an intraleague squad on a rotating basis to add six more games (66 total games vs. non-division league rivals).
• Play four, four-game interleague series each year for a total of 16 games.

All of that adds up to 162 games. Problem solved. Now let's move on to talking about the Braves, Tigers and Orioles.


Atlanta Braves 18/1
2009 record/finish: 86-76, 3rd in NL East
Departing: 1B Casey Kotchman, 2B Kelly Johnson, RHP Javier Vazquez, OF Garret Anderson, LHP Mike Gonzalez, RHP Rafael Soriano
Arriving: 1B Troy Glaus, OF Melky Cabrera, LHP Billy Wagner, UTL Eric Hinske, RHP Takashi Saito
2010 outlook: I like this team a lot. And by that I mean I hate this team with a passion but like them as a playoff contender. That is as long as they hold on to Eric Hinske who has somehow found a way to play in three straight World Series.

There are obvious reasons why this team gets into the postseason and goes a long way and there are obvious reasons why they won't. Let's begin with the latter. The Braves are very dependent upon the health of some veterans who have been unhealthy in the past: Chipper Jones, Tim Hudson, Glaus, Saito and Wagner. All four could be out by May for all I know. The bullpen is very dependent on Saito and Wagner especially.

Winning will mean that those guys for the most part stay healthy and some of the youngsters such as Jair Jurrjens, Nate McLouth and Tommy Hanson come into their own.

Trivia time: Who's the only other player besides Hinske to play in three straight World Series for three different teams?

My pick: 89 wins, second in NL East

Detroit Tigers 27/1
2009 record/finish: 86-77, 2nd in AL Central
Departing: INF Placido Polanco, OF Curtis Granderson, RHP Edwin Jackson, RHP Brandon Lyon, RHP Fernando Rodney
Arriving: OF Austin Jackson, 2B Scott Sizemore, RHP Jose Valverde, RHP Phil Coke
2010 outlook: The Tigers went to Game No. 163 last year and fell just short. Their rotation is deeply stacked to make the long haul again, and they have one of the game's top hitters in Miguel Cabrera who can carry an offense by himself. And yet I smell fish.

The biggest loss from this team will be Polanco. Detroit will also try and break a pair of rookies into the everyday mix in Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore. There is some depth in the outfield if Jackson can't cut it, but if Sizemore doesn't get the hang of it the Tigers have Ramon Santiago in reserve who is, by the way, the backup shortstop for Adam Everett who hit all of .238 with a .613 OPS last year. I love Adam Everett by the way, just sayin'.

There is also a mental block on my part about this team after watching Jose Valvomit, er, Valverde close games for my Astros the past couple of seasons. The good news for Detroit is assuming Joel Zumaya can get back healthy, Jim Leyland has decent bullpen and closing depth. Listen for the name Fu-Te Ni if you haven't seen the guy pitch already.

My pick: 83 wins, 3rd in AL Central



Baltimore Orioles 100/1
2009 record/finish: 64-98, 5th in AL East
Departing: UTL Aubrey Huff, 3B Melvin Mora,
Arriving: INF Miguel Tejada, RHP Kevin Millwood, LHP Mike Gonzalez,
2010 outlook: This is where Schoenfield's realignment plan based on fairness falls apart. If the attempt for level the playing field was really the task, then MLB would never allow idiots like Peter Angelos into the game. But then as comedian Ron White is fond of saying, "You can't fix stupid."

I've got no clue if there is a plan at all with this team. Hayzeus H. Christ, and pardon my language, but why in the hell bring Tejada back now? Good lord, there has to be a total mental midget behind this move. I've got no idea how Tejada will move to 3B, if that really is the plan, and truly believe he will enjoy at least a .280-14 HR-60 RBI season for the O's. But why? There are other plug-ins at third until September or next spring when Josh Bell should get there.

I just don't understand the plan with this team. Could someone tell me?

My pick: 62 wins, 5th in AL East

Trivia answer: Don Baylor played in three consecutive World Series for the 1986 Red Sox, 1987 Twins and 1988 Athletics.

[smitch124]

Yep, in your face Orioles we now have Aubrey Huff, the Series is ours!!

[BigdaddyQH]

Nice job. Now if we could only cut 4 months out of the long boring season, I could get into this. All I know about baseball is to fade the Mets.

[Sinister Cat]

Nice writeups Willie Bee.

Orioles could be interesting this year. Baseball Prospectus has them projected for 80 wins. They have some promising young starters, and if either Garrett Atkins or Scott Moore pans out at first base they will have a strong lineup.

[Willie Bee]

Part 6 of 10

Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz still available

A slow, somewhat boring offseason in the majors is about to come to an end with spring camps opening in a few days, and for some of the remaining free agents that's not a very good sign.

Seeking employment in specialized field, experienced, willing to relocate, salary negotiable, references available, if interested please call my agent...soon, please.



Finding a job these days ain't easy, even for big league pitchers with success in their pasts. Now with spring training fast approaching, time and options are running out for both the remaining free agents and clubs still looking to fit that last piece or two into their roster puzzles.

Two big time names available are veterans Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz.

Martinez, an eight-time All-Star, turned 38 during Philadelphia's loss to the Yankees in the 2009 World Series. Rumors were he wanted to return to the Phils where he got in nine regular season starts and three postseason assignments last year. But with their depth in the rotation, the Phillies aren't biting on the reported $5 million salary request by Martinez.

Smoltz was a bust in Boston over eight starts, then fared much better over seven goes in the Cardinals rotation. The righthander will turn 43 in May, and has been linked to the Mets who are looking for almost any warm body for their starting mix.

Smoltz and Martinez, plus the teams they eventually land with, might be better off at this stage making a midseason entrance a la Roger Clemens.

How strange is it for a reliever who picked up 20 saves in 21 chances for a team last year to still be out of work? Such is the case of Mike MacDougal after the Nationals non-tendered their '09 closer. MacDougal looked to be an easy fit with the Phillies, but they signed Danys Baez instead.

It's also strange that lefthander Jarrod Washburn hasn't found a home, even as bad as he stunk it up after being dealt to Detroit from Seattle. Livan Hernandez, one of my favorite pitchers, is still available. Quarter Pounder will end up signing some minor league deal, make a club at the very back end of its rotation coming out of camp and get in 25-30 starts.

Chien-Ming Wang is making a comeback after all sorts of injuries the past couple of years. One report had a Dodgers scout saying it would be late May before he was 100%. Maybe one of the following three teams will ink Wang or one of the other pitchers eventually.

Chicago Cubs 18/1
2009 record/finish: 83-78, 2nd in NL Central
Departing: OF Milton Bradley, RHP Rich Harden, RHP Kevin Gregg
Arriving: OF Marlon Byrd, OF Xavier Nady, 1B Chad Tracy, RHP Carlos Silva
2010 outlook: Doomed, just as soon as I buy my futures on them to win the National League. Cubs executives should consider adding a few thousand to their already bloated payroll and pay me off to prevent the jinx I put on them each season.

If you're Milton Bradley, how do you take being dealt for a pitcher like Carlos Silva who has posted an ERA in the upper 6's the last two years in pitcher-friendly Safeco? That's the biggest change for the Cubs entering this season, not getting Silva necessarily but replacing Bradley with the likes of Byrd and Nady in their outfield. They've added depth, though even with the money they received for Silva the Cubbies are paying a bunch for a Bradley-less clubhouse.

The biggest keys for Chicago's North Siders will be Alfonso Soriano bouncing back from a poor season overall and Aramis Ramirez staying healthy to pump the offense up. The rotation, without Silva, is pretty deep and the closer issue is settled with Carlos Marmol seated and Kevin Gregg departing for Toronto.

My pick: 88 wins, 2nd in NL Central

Arizona Diamondbacks 50/1
2009 record/finish: 70-92, 5th in NL West
Departing: RHP Max Scherzer, 1B Chad Tracy, OF Eric Byrnes, LHP Doug Davis, RHP Jon Garland
Arriving: 2B Kelly Johnson, 1B Adam LaRoche, RHP Edwin Jackson, RHP Ian Kennedy, RHP Bobby Howry
2010 outlook: With Edwin Jackson joining the rotation behind Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, the Diamondbacks could indeed be dangerous. Naturally a lot still depends on Webb bouncing back from the arm surgery that made '09 a wasted season for the righthander. If he does return to forum, this club could even battle for second in the division behind the Dodgers.



There is certainly a lot of power in the order, er, the potential for a lot of power. Mark Reynolds has the biggest stick, along with successive seasons setting new MLB marks for striking out. LaRoche and Johnson, the two newcomers on the right side of the infield could jack 40 between them. There's a 30-HR threat in right field named Justin Upton and a 30-HR thread in center if the Chris Young we saw at the end of '09 is what we see all of '10.

Hard team to cap, and easy to expect down at the bottom rung or two of the division since Los Angeles, Colorado and San Francisco seemingly have fewer if's.

My pick: 78 wins, 4th in NL West

Pittsburgh Pirates 125/1
2009 record/finish: 62-99, 6th in NL Central
Departing: Many during the '09 season
Arriving: OF Ryan Church, 2B Akinori Iwamura, RHP Octavio Dotel, RHP Brendon Donnelly
2010 outlook: I say it each season, so excuse me if you're bored to hear it once again. I feel sorry for Pirates fans. The good people of Pittsburgh, as well as the ghosts of this once proud franchise, deserve better.

No, I wouldn't sell my soul to the devil for the Bucs to have a winning season. However I would sacrifice my own beloved Astros to a 100-loss season if Pittsburgh could be treated to at least an 82-plus win campaign. There, I worked my 'Stros into another article and paid homage to the great fans in Iron City all at the same time.

Andrew McCutchen is one Bucco I'm keen on watching, and maybe we'll see Pedro Alvarez make his major league debut for the Pirates down at the hot corner at some point during the 2010 season. Both McCutchen and Alvarez will be playing for contenders in a few seasons after Pittsburgh deals them away. As Smiley Lewis sang back in 1957, and Aerosmith covered many years later, "Shame, shame, shame."

My pick: 68 wins, 6th in NL Central

[whatsgood5]

Seems to be an accurate assesment of the Braves, injuries do always seem to find a way to screw us over. Very nice write-ups, I enjoy reading these. Thanks Willie!

[Willie Bee]

Part 7 of 10

Minnesota Twins banking on Mauer power

The Twins needed 163 games to take down the AL Central last season before bowing out of the playoffs quickly. Armed with the reigning AL MVP Joe Mauer, Minnesota looks to do more in 2010.

A few remaining free agents are starting to draw some offers, and one remaining free agent is considering retirement as the hours begin to tick down to the start of spring training.

Players will begin filing into camps next Monday and by this time next week all pitchers at catchers will be working out at the very least. Some teams are already seeing players on hand to begin some light workouts...and to escape some of the frigid weather that has beset the nation.

One pitcher that will not be throwing from a mound but could be signed in the coming week is Chien-Ming Wang who we discussed a bit in the last preseason preview. According to Buster Olney at ESPN.com, the Dodgers have withdrawn from the Wang bidding, leaving possibly the Mets or Nationals as the righthander's best options.

Wang probably wouldn't be ready to take to a big league mound until late-May at the very earliest as he recovers from shoulder surgery.

MLB.com reports the Braves have offered free agent outfielder Johnny Damon a one-year contract. Damon, who hit .282 with 24 homers with the Yankees last season, would join a somewhat crowded OF in Atlanta where Nate McLouth appears set in center with Melky Cabrera, a teammate of Damon's in New York the past four years, in left and Matt Diaz in right. Damon's arm strength would not allow him to play right and the Braves also have Eric Hinske on hand to play an outfield corner spot.



Meanwhile Damon's former team did add another outfielder to its mix this week when the Yankees officially inked Randy Winn after about a week of rumors. Winn, a member of the Giants the past four-plus seasons, is coming off a 2-HR, .671 OPS season in San Francisco, and is seen as nothing more than the fourth outfielder for the Pinstripes right now.

Carlos Delgado, who had hip surgery and missed 136 games for the Mets last year, is considering retirement if the "right situation" doesn't present itself. A 17-season veteran, Delgado is only 27 home runs shy of the magical 500 plateau.

Colorado Rockies 18/1
2009 record/finish: 92 wins, 2nd in NL West
Departing: 3B Garrett Atkins, RHP Jason Marquis
Arriving: C Miguel Olivo
2010 outlook: Very few changes from the team that ended in the Mile High City last season, and when you win 92 games, you don't need to make a lot of changes. There are two 'additions' that don't show up above that could make or break this team's postseason chances in 2010.

Lefthander Jeff Francis is reportedly recovered from his should surgery that caused him to miss the end of the '08 season and all of '09. If he is back to anywhere near his 2007 form, this should be a very good rotation one through five. Ubaldo Jimenez is rounding into a true ace for the staff, and Francis would give the Rocks a second lefty in the mix after Jorge de la Rosa's 16-win campaign from a year ago. Huston Street anchors a bullpen that will have a full season from Rafael Betancourt in the setup role.

The loss of Atkins is no big deal, especially if Ian Stewart can take over at third with improved defense and an increase on the .228 he batted last season. And the club is about to show why dealing Matt Holliday away to the A's after the 2008 season was a great deal. In addition to getting Street to close for them, Colorado received Carlos Gonzalez in that trade, and the 24-year-old youngster showed off his potential last year with 13 homers, 16 steals and an .878 OPS in 89 games for the Rockies. He completes a very talented outfield trio in left with Dexter Fowler in center and Brad Hawpe in right.

I'm hoping to be wrong by picking this club second in the division.

My pick: 87 wins, 2nd in NL West

Minnesota Twins 25/1
2009 record/finish: 87-76, 1st in AL Central
Departing: OF Carlos Gomez, SS Orlando Cabrera, 3B Joe Crede
Arriving: SS J.J. Hardy, DH Jim Thome, 2B Orlando Hudson
2010 outlook: Yet another team I'm hoping to be wrong about picking for a second place finish in its division. How can you not like what the Twins do with their budget?



The Thome signing is an amazing deal for the Twins. They get a great backup to Jason Kubel for a bargain price ($1.5 million for a season). Hudson is a solid second sacker, and Hardy stands a good chance to be a solid acquisition by adding a bat with some punch potential at shortstop. If there's a weakness on this team it's not much depth in the outfield. Minnesota is bringing Jacque Jones back on a minor league deal, so maybe he can find himself again as a Twin after a horrible 2008 and missing all of 2009.

The Twins won last year without a true ace, and a return to form by lefthander Francisco Liriano would go a long way to pushing Minnesota into the mid-90s in the win column. There are a lot of arms for manager Ron Gardenhire to build a rotation with during spring camp, and the bullpen remains solid with Joe Nathan at the back end and Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and Jon Rauch in front of him.

My pick: 85 wins, 2nd in AL Central

Cleveland Indians 60/1
2009 record/finish: 65-97, tied for 4th in AL Central
Departing: Many
Arriving: Few
2010 outlook: New manager Manny Acta isn't going to find life much different in Cleveland this season than it was for him when he was managing the doormat Nationals. The Indians will finish dead last in the AL Central, the only mystery being whether they can avoid triple digits in the loss column. The difference for Acta here is the Tribe has a better shot of being somewhere higher in the standings within 2-3 seasons than his old club in Washington will.

The pitching staff is basically a crapshoot right now. Jake Westbrook is being counted on to return from Tommy John surgery in 2008 to assume the No. 1 slot in the rotation. Behind him Acta will have to form a staff from Fausto Carmona, Justin Masterson, Aaron Laffey, David Huff and a few others. Kerry Wood will go to camp as the closer, but he's a prime candidate to be traded before the July deadline. The bullpen was one of the worst last year with Wood, so they can't really be any worse without him.

A healthy season from Grady Sizemore is expected, which will boost the offense. Chin-Soo Choo returns in right and Matt LaPorta is expected to blossom after his trial run in '09. There is a replacement for Victor Martinez at catcher in the way, but don't look for Carlos Santana to take over Cleveland's backstop chores until June at the earliest.

My pick: 65 wins, 5th in AL Central

[Jasonal_98]

I'm really liking the Braves this year as long as their young pitchers (Hanson and Jurjjens) don't hit sophomore slumps.

[capitalist pig]

Always like reading your pre season Baseball write ups, thanks.

later

[DOMINATER]

Baseball has been very very good to me

[nitty48]

Mariners will win AL west

[Willie Bee]

Part 8 of 10-part series

Yankees looking at wild card season ahead

If I waited until the end of this 10-part series to talk about the New York Yankees, some of their fans would moan and cry, and we sure don't want that to happen now, do we?

Imagine getting a Christmas bonus that is more than three times your annual salary. Now imagine your boss handing that check to you and asking if you'd stay on next year with a 1200 percent raise and a 60 percent raise from that the following year.

If you can also imagine being able to throw a low-90s fastball and break off hard curves on major league hitters, you know what it feels like to be Tim Lincecum.

I've never watched the young man pitch in person, and I'm sure hoping to change that this season with the Giants in Houston for two trips, a series starting Opening Day and another series in mid-June as the lone NL-only games amidst a span of interleague play. But I have seen him on the telly, including one of his very early career starts, and was impressed from the get-go.

Lincecum's third major league mound appearance was in Houston in May 2007, and it was coincidentally against a very similar pitcher, Roy Oswalt. The pair shares several comparable features, statistically and physically. Start with both being on the 'small side' when compared to many other righties that can reach into the low-to-mid 90s with the fastball.

Oswalt's change is better, and yes, I'm biased. But Lincecum's ceiling cannot be even estimated at this point. He'll be 26 in the middle of June and already has a pair of CY's in his hip pocket. He wants to pitch in San Fran and they will have him on the roster now through the 2012 season before he can test the free agent waters. It's "win-win" for both him and the team as club VP Bobby Evans was quoted in an ESPN.com article shortly after the recent contract was worked out just before the start of the arbitration process.

By the way, in that game between Lincecum and Oswalt on May 17, 2007, the Giants won 2-1 in 12 innings. San Francisco's starter worked seven, gave up an unearned run, two hits and struck out 10 against one free pass. Houston's mound choice to open the game also worked seven, allowed four hits, no runs and struck out six with two walks. Over the course of 14 innings combined, Oswalt and Lincecum faced 50 batters, eight over the minimum. And you thought I wasn't going to plug my Astros in this one.


New York Yankees 11/4
2009 record/finish: 103-59, 1st in AL East
Departing: OF Johnny Damon, OF Hideki Matsui, OF Melky Cabrera, UTL Eric Hinske, RHP Phil Coke
Arriving: OF Curtis Granderson OF Randy Winn, 1B Nick Johnson, OF Marcus Thames, RHP Javier Vazquez
2010 outlook: Assuming, C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett can make 60 starts between them, some combination of Vazquez, Andy Pettitte, Joba Chamberlain and Chad Gaudin can shoulder the load on the back end of the rotation for 90 of the remaining 102 starts, and Mariano Rivera is ready for another season closing, then their chances are pretty damn good to win it all for the 28th time.

I just don't think all of that will happen.

The offense/defense alignment enters the 2010 season in better shape than it did to start 2009, and I'm convinced the team will lead the majors once again in runs scored. But I'm just not sold on the pitching staff yet and waiting to see how the Yanks might improve that depth and line out the rotation/bullpen to start the campaign.
My pick: 95 wins, 2nd in AL East

Florida Marlins 25/1
2009 record/finish: 87-75, 2nd in NL East
Departing: OF Jeremy Hermida, RHP Kiko Calero
Arriving: No big names
2010 outlook: The pitching staff, with a deep bunch of starters for Fredi Gonzalez, to work with needs to all come together. That's true for all clubs, but the difference is if Marlins arms do that, they challenge the NL big-dog Phillies for the NL East. If not, they could finish fourth behind the Mets and Braves, which is where I'm placing them at the moment.



I'm just not sold on Leo Nuñez at closer, for openers. The 'no-names' in front of him could rival the '72 Dolphins defensive unit and help make up for some of that, but then there's the whole notion of Anibal Sanchez staying healthy, Ricky 'Jekyll & Hyde' Nolasco, the coming of age for Chris Volstad and Andrew Miller.

This offense is a sneaky bunch led by All-World Hanley Ramirez. A definite candidate for the 90-win plateau which will be good enough for a postseason seat in the NL this year.

My pick: 83 wins, 4th in NL East

San Diego Padres 75/1
2009 record/finish: 75-87, 4th in NL West
Departing: 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, OF Brian Giles
Arriving: UTL Jerry Hairston, C. Yorvit Torrealba, RHP Jon Garland
2010 outlook: One of those weird teams to get a handle on, but at the same time there's no reason to expect this year's Friars to crack past the Dodgers, Rockies and Giants in this division and so I'm placing them in the cluster's basement.

What makes San Diego dangerous is the starting staff could be good enough to make things difficult on the opposition, at least at Petco for visiting clubs. Chris Young could bounce back into form, Clayton Richard and Mat Latos might enjoy first full seasons with the Padres, while Garland, Kevin Correia and Tim Stauffer are added depth at the back end of any rotation. And like the Marlins, there's a group of no-name middle and setup relievers in front of Heath Bell, a far better bet at closer than Leo Nuñez.

It's the offense that will hold this club back. A mediocre season from the pitchers and a great season from the hitters would have the club struggling to reach 80 wins. Expecting the average and we're looking at the low-70s for the victory column.

My pick: 72 wins, 5th in NL West

[Outlawdino]

Nice read...lets go Tigers !!!!!!!!

[Willie Bee]

Got the schedules loaded into my simulator, still tweaking some of the player stats. Plan to run five full seasons of sims this weekend, and hoping we have a really good supply of win totals to start looking at next week.

[nosniboR11]

have to love willie for baseball season,

[FrozenMAN]

"My pick: 83 wins, 4th in NL East"

YOU ARE SMOKING SOMETHING WILLIE B???? 4th in the east no way senor

you failed to mention the biggest addition to the team was the departure of rick kranitz and the arrival or randy st. claire, who is gonna fix those mechanics of volstad, miller and mr west which kranitz couldnt do. the fresh face and new ideas are gonna be huge for those 3, ESPECIALLY Mr. Miller, who i think is FINALLY gonna have a break out year.

i concur though with the nunez comments but fully believe that he can get it done this year, he was pretty good last season expect for the occasional gopher ball and if he gets rid of that WATCH OUT, ROLAIDS RELIEF MAN OF THE YEAR

[Terrapin Station]

nice read willie

[tltaylor89]

Will the Mets be healthy

[THEGREAT30]

Braves get back to WS, some way, just a gut feeling. Padres were surprisingly good down stretch last year, be aware